Alarming Developments in West Asia

Trouble in the Arab World erupted days after President Trump’s visit to Riyadh. The simmering conflicts finally snow-balled into a full-fledged regional tiff, with Saudi Arabia and its allies calling for boycott of Qatar on June 5^th. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Bahrain, and Maldives announced closure of borders and imposed economic, diplomatic and trade ban on Qatar. Traditionally the sectarian divide of Sunni (Wahhabi-Salafi) Vs Shia (Arab-Persian) dominated the discourse in the Middle East. But this new fragmentation and attempts to isolate Qatar brought to fore a conflict that can be traced back to 1995.

In 1971, the largest natural- gas reserves spread in an area of 9700 sq km was discovered in the Persian Gulf shared by Iran and Qatar. Region in Iran territorial waters (3700 sq Km) was referred as South Pars and the other half in Qatar waters (6000 sq Km) was called North Dome. The Qatari section has 99% of recoverable gas and accounts for 14% of World’s gas reserves. The reserve had by far the most easily recoverable reserves. Economic sanctions, prevented Iran from accessing these reserves after Iranian revolution in 1979 and actual production could start only in 2002. During the same period falling oil reserves compelled Qatar to sign series of agreements with Western companies to accelerate natural gas production. By 1989, production started. In 1995, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani deposed his pro-Arab father and began exporting natural gas from 1997. This remunerative exploration changed the fortunes of the small peninsula catapulting it to the club of richest countries with an enviable annual per capita of $130,000. Qatar eventually became the largest exporter of liquefied natural gas breaking the domination of Saudi Arabia in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Qatar subsequently accumulated huge reserves of sovereign wealth and supported Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt, Hamas in West Bank and other militant fractions that opposed Saudi Arabia and UAE in Syria. Interestingly, aside offering aid to Hamas for reconstruction in Gaza Strip, Qatar had friendly relations with Israel. It is also believed that Qatar funded jihadist organizations in Africa. Qatar also maintained influence over the Arab World through the Al Jazeera Media group which irked and angered the Arab world.

Qatar, having signed deal with Iran with regards to North Dome gas reserve in 1969 has maintained good relations with Iran. Recently Qatar, revamped ties with Russia with a promise of investing sovereign in Russia’s Rosenft Oil Corporation. Unlike other GCC members, Qatar pursued independent foreign policy. During the 18 yr rule of Hamad, Qatar was projected as a progressive country by hosting various international events like the 2006 Asian Games, 2012 UN climate Change Conference, Doha Agreement etc. and managed to win the controversial bid for hosting the FIFA cup 2022. According to an estimate, Qatar owns 40% of London’s assets. Soon, it also became key strategic player by housing American and Turkish forces on its territory. In 2003, US Combat Air operations Centre for Middle East was forced to move from the Prince Sultan Air base in Saudi Arabia. Qatar then offered Al Udeid Air base in addition to the As Sayliyah army base of US used for coordinating activities in Iraq and Afghanistan from 2000. In 2013, Hamad handed over power to his son Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani.

Gas dollars like Petro dollars of Saudi Arabia drastically changed the fortunes of Qatar. Doha began using natural gas a strategic weapon against its neighboring countries which had no natural gas reserves. With rising demand for LNG in Gulf countries, much to their consternation of Middle East neighbors (who expected Qatar to sell gas at discounted prices), Qatar preferred exporting gas to markets in Europe and Asia. Qatar’s emergence as a reliable gas and oil exporter and assertive approach irked Saudi Arabia and its friendly coterie.

Over time, fissures in the Arab world deepened. Qatar’s strategic play of supporting the groups like Muslim Brotherhood that opposed the hereditary rule miffed Saudi and UAE. Its continuous engagement with Houthi rebels fighting the pro-Arab Al Salah regime and Iran, support to Al-Nusra exacerbated the differences. In 2014, Arab nations snapped ties with Qatar recalling ambassadors, citing the violation of GCC clause of interfering in domestic affairs of other GCC member countries. After Riyadh’s stern warning to Qatar, Tamim curbed funding to Al-Qaeda affiliates in Syria but doubled its involvement with Houthi rebels and Muslim Brotherhood. Subsequently, Kuwaiti intervention broke the stalemate. But the current crisis is far-fledged with Arab countries hardening their stance which included punishing the Qatar sympathizers with 15-year jail sentence. Qatari citizens are given 14-days’ notice to leave Arab countries.

This time around, President Trump’s flawed Arab policy spurred Qatar’s diplomatic crisis. Audaciously attributing radical Islam ideology for rise in terrorist attacks, on the eve of Trump opening of Global Centre for Combating Extremist Ideology at Riyadh, he called upon Sunni-Muslim nation conglomerate to join hands with US to crush terrorism. Lashing out at Iran for wreaking havoc in the region by patronizing militant groups, US added heft to Saudi Arabia’s approach of castigating Iran in Gulf. Emboldened Arab nations which had fractured relations with Qatar after the recent developments, strategically unleashed a tirade to isolate Qatar. Ever since his election campaigning Trump made vociferous attacks on Iran holding it responsible for proliferation of terrorism. The dislike intensified manifold with US and Iran proxies competing for the territories earlier held by IS in South Syria. Iran is particularly keen on occupying large swathes of land along the Iraq-Syria border will be ideal land route to connect Hebollah operating in Lebanon. Gaining a strong hold in South Syria will augur well for American intervention in the region.

In reality, all Arab states consider radical Muslim militant groups as strategic assets. They invariably patronize and support at least one such group to out maneuver each other. Saudi Arabia and its affiliates have been established exporters of Wahhabism. In 1996, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia planned a coup against Qatar Emir Hamad. But he survived. While Saudi affiliate states demand expulsion of Islamists of different groups from Qatar, Saudi provides safe-havens to most vicious Wahhabi preachers and is a global supplier of Salafi-Wahhabi Imams. On the other hand, Qatar sitting on vast forex reserves has mastered the game of double-cross. Another interesting dimension of the Gulf countries is the complex web of friendly relations buttressed by economic interests. Qatar a staunch Islamic state adhering to Salafi version of Sunni Islam has no qualms in deepening economic relations with Shiite Iran. UAE, close affiliate of Saudi Arabia is the fourth largest trade partner of Iran. Similarly, Kuwait and Oman both dominantly Sunni states have good relations with Iran. Egypt has good contacts with Houthi rebels and with Iran. Saudi is upset with Egypt supporting Russian veto regarding Syria. Dampened economic growth of Saudi Arabia witnessed emergence of UAE as the leader which soon fostered relations with Al-Sissi of Egypt. Saudi began losing its hold over Yemen and Libya to leadership of UAE and Egypt.

Sinking oil prices has weakened Saudis economic clout. Riyadh fears losing hegemony in GCC and hence unwilling to make way for Qatar, the largest exporter of natural gas and third largest exporter of Oil. Moreover, Qatar’s strong economic ties with Iran have for long been a bone of contention. Trump’s calumnious provocations has stoked simmering differences. While Trump started boasting that his visit was “already paying off” adding “they said they would take hard-line stand on funding….extremism, and all reference was pointing to Qatar. Perhaps this will be beginning of the end to the horror of terrorism” the region might seriously be slipping into malicious diplomatic anarchy. Meanwhile, Rex Tillerson and US State department issued statements to contain the diplomatic damage over Trump’s statement by offering to negotiate and assuring Doha of strong relationship and cooperation. But the crisis deepened in the region by twin attacks in Iran by alleged IS militants.

On June 7^th suicide bombers dressed as women and four men launched simultaneous attacks on Parliament and the Mausoleum of Ayatollah Khomeini killing 18 people. These attacks infuriated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps blamed Saudi Arabia and accused them of supporting IS. They vowed revenge and linked this attacks to President Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia. Trump’s condolence message to victims of Iran which read as “We grieve and pray for the innocent victims of terror attacks in Iran, and for the Iranian people, who are going through challenging times. We underscore that states that sponsor terrorism risk falling victim to the evil they promote” heightened the animosities further.

Gulf countries want Qatar to stop communicating with Iran. But Qatar would never undermine ties with Iran, which transformed its economy. Aside Trump’s visit a report containing the statements by Qatar emir Tamim which appeared on website of Qatari News Agency fueled the current diplomatic crisis. According to the report, Emir Tamim was believed to have harshly criticized UAE, Bahrain, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia of waging a smear campaign against Qatar depicting it as a supporter of terrorism. Though CNN and other agencies apprehended that this might be fake news implanted by Russian hackers, in any case, Arab states of late are seething with fury and the conundrum of mistrust. Irresponsible intervention by America triggered the explosion of pent up mistrust. Moreover, if warring Arab factions fail to strike a middle ground, in every likelihood, Qatar may deepen ties with Oman and Iran causing a vertical split in GCC.

Deteriorating state of affairs in Gulf is bound to have severe repercussions on the Arab states and all other countries heavily dependent on this region for Oil and remittances. Unity of Gulf states seems to have reached a break-even point and a hardline approach by any state may spell doom for the security order of the entire region. Soaked in Petro and gas dollars, states till now had built massive regimes and patronized extremist religious groups of various hues and unleashed an interminable war. Though countries like Kuwait, Turkey and Germany have so far offered to negotiate to avert the crisis. But alas!! time for remedial rectification is forgone a religious revival and renaissance alone can extricate the venomous seeds of jihad.

India is closely watching the unfoldment of Qatari crisis closely. West Asia is home for 7 million Indian diaspora that send home $63 billion remittances. New Delhi has always adopted a neutral approach and steered clear of intra Arab state rivalries. Peace and stability of West Asia is extremely crucial for economic well-being of India.  

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