As expected Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s address at the 71st session of UN General Assembly (UNGA) bereft of any reference to Uri terror attacks and bequeathing freedom fighter tag on Burhan Wani left India fuming. Exercising right to reply, Indian gave strong rebuttal. The UN has once again turned into platform for acrimonious exchange of words between the warring South Asian neighbors. Modi government which stormed into power on the promise of acche din, uniquely blended trade and economic ties with foreign policy. A promising beginning of massive global outreach began to resurrect the Indian economy. Fortuitous Uri terror attacks of Sept 18th besides generating unprecedented public anger, rechanneled India’s attention from the NSG membership campaign. The emotional despair and growing public pitch for an aggressive retaliation muffled a promising financial milestone of shrinking current account deficit in the first quarter.
Seven-decade long acrimony between India and Pakistan for Kashmir province resulted in four long conventional wars that gobbled accrued meagre economic gains and resulted in competitive nuclear weapons accumulation. The regional adversaries being non-signatories of NPT, growing nuclear stockpiles have become cause of international concern. In 2001, India moved forces towards border following a clandestine attack on Parliament by the terror outfits of Pakistan, threatened by a possibility of a nuclear war the West immediately intervened. While India characteristically imposed reins on nuclear weapons usage by embracing No-First Use (NFU) Policy, Pakistan’s no holds barred and invincibility of the non-state actors always evoked concerns among the World nations. Precisely, for the same reason any provocation, insurgency/escalation or war of words between India and Pakistan inevitably catches international attention. Strategic cooperation among South Asian countries was under siege due to Kashmir issue, burgeoning hegemonic influence of China is all set to decimate the flailing rubric. China’s perception of India as potential challenger in Asia and proximity with erstwhile Soviet Union found convergence in Pakistan’s hostility towards India. The foundations of Sino-Pakistan friendship seeded on mutual enmity towards India, strengthened by land border agreement of 1963 are now thriving on elements on military, nuclear and economic cooperation. Bold diplomatic moves of Modi and his ambitions agenda for India as balancing power in the region flustered China. India’s economic growth story began to gain momentum emerging as the fastest growing large economy outpacing China. In sharp contrast, China was bracing the torrents of stock market collapse and slipping growth rates. Much to the chagrin of China, India posted highest FDI investments and is steadily brimming hopes of surging growth rates ahead. Economic development of India is making new headlines. This trend was in contravention to Chinese objective of restraining India to the status of sub-regional power.
The Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) verdict of July 12th quashing China’s territorial claims over all the structures in the South China Sea (SCS) and Beijing’s blatant refusal to abide by the same earned it international rebuke. Tensions escalated in the region. Nuclear tests by North Korea and subsequent deployment of THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Anti-Missile Destroyer) in South Korea coupled with Chinese overtures in waters of East China Sea turned the region into potential zone of conflict. Around the same time, China rearing to project its grand standing at the upcoming G-20 summit in Hangzhou, through smart diplomatic moves, managed to avoid discussions pertaining to SCS. However, China’s proclamation of “peace rise” was irreparably damaged. While China reveled in success of self-proclaimed success of G-20, India clearly made a mark at the meet by actively garnering international support for counter terrorism cooperation. In the run up to G-20 summit Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi, visited India seeking support and cooperation. China in turn had to concede New Delhi’s request for commissioning high-level talks on India’s NSG membership and other outstanding issues.
With the killing of Burhan Wani on July 8th, tensions erupted in Kashmir Valley and Pakistan deployed a committed network of terror operatives to escalate the situation. Islamabad then tried to tarnish India’s image by referring the issue to UN. Indian administration went into tizzy as the domestic insurgency refused to die down. Capitalizing on the situation, Pakistan’s deep state intensified infiltration bids. Irked by Pakistan’s announcement of dedicating Independence Day to Kashmir’s azadi, India unveiled the Modi-Doval doctrine. With India pressing the levers of internationalizing the human rights violations in Balochistan, Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK), Gilgit and Baltistan. Pakistan handed over reign to Rawalpindi leading to a terror attack on the Uri military base. China was discomfited by Indian stance for its aspirations of gaining access to Arabian Sea and vital economic interests in Balochistan would be thwarted. While China overtly declared that “Kashmir is left over from history. We hope concerned parties will pursue a peaceful settlement through dialogue”, an acrimonious diplomatic tirade between India and Pakistan is in Beijing’s best interest. Since India’s hopes of reforming global institutions of governance will be lost. Sustained diplomatic momentum harvested for India’s NSG membership would suffer a huge setback with nuclear-weapon sparring at UN. Tremendous efforts of rallying for investments by Modi government would do down the drain. Foreign Investors might be hard pressed to reconsider if talks of full blown war rekindle. In short, perceptible progress made by the Modi government to usher India into realm of economic prosperity will suffer a major blow. While India would be grappling with economic and strategic uncertainties, China would escape international censure despite escalating rivalries in the North East Asia region.
Simultaneously, in absence of a befitting reply to Pakistan in response outrageous Uri attacks, Modi government Indian public would be incensed. BJP which enjoyed remarkably high regard for nationalistic morals and uprightness might be castigation. It may suffer political debacle at the upcoming assembly elections. Already Pakistan paid heavy price with stock markets crashing yesterday. Constant references to nuclear war will have negative effect on India’s economic environment. Above all, the entire game plan meticulously articulated by China and deftly executed by Pakistan has pushed India into a catch-22 kind of situation. The wave massive public outcry for giving back to Pakistan has hijacked the social media networks demonstrating that there is an urgent need for public education on foreign policy.
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