The recently concluded state visit by Afghanistan President
Mohammad Ashraf Ghani fortified the long-standing Indo-Afghan relations.
Buttressing Modi’s piquant call to impose sanctions on states sponsoring terror
at the recent G-20 summit and the ASEAN Meet, Afghan President in the joint
statement vociferously denounced the regional adversary for fomenting terror. Two
years ago, newly sworn in President Ghani placed high emphasis on restoring and
strengthening relations with Pakistan over the traditional ally India in
anticipation of quelling the cross-border terror that threatened to descend
Afghanistan into chaos. Afghan Taliban thriving on the narcotic trade, rooted
in obnoxious ideology and shored up by Pakistani Military had its safe havens
in Pakistan. Unlike his predecessor, Hamid Karzai, who stabilized the
Indo-Afghan ties, Ghani went out of way to reach out to Pakistani counterparts to
seek cooperation in expediting peace talks with Afghan Taliban. India’s
strategic community was sidelined during this process. In the meanwhile,
Pakistan logically networked Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG) for
Afghanistan with US and China and deliberately eliminated India. Consequently,
strategic experts declared that India has lost Afghanistan to Pakistan. But
things took a dramatic turn with Afghan Taliban escalating their attacks on
Afghanistan and capturing more strategically important territories like Kunduz.
Aggression of Taliban reached a hilt in September 2015, following which
President Ghani lambasted Pakistan for patronizing Taliban. President Ghani
openly rebuked Pakistan at the joint session of Parliament after Taliban attack
in April that claimed several lives and announced that Islamabad had launched an
“undeclared war” on Afghanistan. Perceptibly even the fanfare about the peace
talks farce too ended after killing of Mullah Mansour Akhtar in drone attack by
the US in May 2015, closing all avenues for peace. Relations between Pakistan
and Afghanistan further deteriorated with escalation of hostilities along the
Torkham Gate.
Despite Afghanistan’s levitation towards Pakistan, Modi
adopted a soft power approached. His visit to Kabul in December last year for
the inauguration of Parliament Complex build by India and transfer of four
Mi-25 attack helicopters displayed India’s commitment in upholding the
Strategic Partnership agreement of 2011. India by sealing historic trilateral
transit and transport agreement of Chahbahar port with Iran and Afghanistan
gave needed impetus to the Indo-Afghan bilateral relations. This agreement
besides addressing the constraints of a land-locked country would reduce
dependability on Pakistan for transit access, infusing new hope for and
economic development in Afghanistan. Later in June 2016 by inaugurating the
long awaited Indo-Afghanistan Friendship Bridge (Salma Dam) at Herat, Modi
consolidated bilateral ties.
President Ghani’s visit to India comes at a time when the
resurgent Afghan Taliban has upped its offensive. Following intensive combing
of US post 9/11, Afghan Taliban escaped into Pakistan territories and were
patiently waiting to strike back. After the pull back of NATO troops in 2014,
Taliban escalated attacks on Afghanistan. As per latest accounts, Taliban is
now controlling three (Tarin Kot, Lashkar Gah and Kunduz) out of 34 provincial
capitals. Independent sources project an even grim picture indicating that of
the 398 districts of Afghanistan, 39 are controlled by Taliban and tough fight
is on in 43 districts. Reports also indicate that all the government officials
of the fallen districts are now fleeing the region. The unprecedented
aggression of Taliban is threatening to destabilize the administration of the
country.
Stymied by brutal terror attacks Afghanistan urged Pakistan
to prevail and trample the conduits of financial resources but affirmative
action was clearly absent. Meanwhile, even tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan
escalated with Pakistan installing new mechanisms of surveillance at the Tokhram
and Chaman border crossings and imposing sanctions on movement of men and
material. Last week Ghani threatened to cut off Pakistan’s access to transit
facilities to Central Asia through Afghanistan if Islamabad fails to allow the
use of Wagah border for trade with India. While Pakistan obliged to allow
Afghan goods to pass through the border it contested import of goods from
India. While Pakistan has little to lose considering its miniscule amounts of
trade to Central Asia, stern warning from Ghani is a reflection of looming
irreconcilable differences between India’s Western neighbors. Though
Afghanistan and Pakistan share 2500 km open border and have close people to
people contacts with large population of Pashtuns in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, both
countries emerged as sparring neighbors. While India is Afghanistan’s
traditional partner and both countries had cordial relations. Except for the brief
Taliban regime that stormed into power in 1996, Afghan regimes always levitated
towards India to seek balance as Pakistan tried to destabilize their country mercilessly.
Besides Afghanistan, India also bore the brunt of state sponsored terrorism of
Pakistan. However reluctant Indian leadership always preferred peace over
confrontation.
Modi’s bold stance of referring to human right violations in
the Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK), Gilgit Baltistan, Baluchistan, appeals to
International community to isolate states sponsoring terrorism and massive
diplomatic outreach for cooperation on counter terrorism found congruence with
Afghanistan’s tribulations. Moreover, deteriorating relations with Pakistan and
John Kerry’s announcement of India-US-Afghanistan trilateral Dialogue for
restoration of peace in Afghanistan prompted President Ghani to reach out to
India. The trilateral dialogue will restart at the UN General Assembly.
Appreciating Indian
efforts in restoring the Storay Palace which was jointly inaugurated on Aug 22nd
by both leaders, Ghani anticipated that both countries would work towards
strengthening strategic partnership and all-round cooperation. India so far
extended civilian assistance through transfer of technology, scholarships,
medical training, rural empowerment and was the single largest bilateral-donor
in the region. Ghani during his visit sought military assistance from India to
strike back at the Taliban. India responded positively and expressed
willingness to train Afghan military personnel, provide second hand transport
helicopters, tanks and artillery. But experts believe that military assistance
to Afghanistan may not the real game changer since the sturdy military and
security systems of Afghanistan under constant attacks have become inefficient over
years and economic bankruptcy turned them redundant. Also, any form of military
support might buttress Afghanistan’s existing defensive mechanisms but may not
help in reclaiming the areas seized by the Taliban (1). On the contrary, India
and Afghanistan can collectively build up international pressure on Pakistan by
referring the terror perpetrated by Rawalpindi at various multilateral forums.
Reinforcing their commitment to fight terrorism, both leaders called “upon the
concerned to put an end to all sponsorship, support and safe havens and
sanctuaries to terrorists, including those who target Afghanistan and
India”. They expressed “grave concern at
continued use of terrorism” that threatens to destroy the regional stability,
peace and harmony. Countries have signed agreements on extradition, mutual legal
assistance and outer space cooperation. Reiterating India’s commitment of
working towards a “unified, sovereign, democratic, peaceful, stable and
prosperous Afghanistan”, Modi announced $1 billion aid towards capacity
building, strengthening democratic institutions, women’s empowerment,
education, health and technology. India also offered to supply medicines and
extend cooperation in solar energy generation. With this India has so far
disbursed $3 billion developmental aid to Afghanistan becoming the largest
bilateral-donor in Asia (overtaking China). Ghani before leaving New Delhi,
addressed the Indian think-tank IDSA where he characteristically chided and
snubbed Pakistan’s good and bad terrorist doctrine.
While India’s new avatar of bold diplomatic posturing might
be a welcome development, the path of ushering Indo-Afghan relations into new
realm must be tread very carefully. With the US commending India’s financial
assistance and support to restore democracy in Afghanistan, Pakistan already
miffed by US decision of blocking sale of F-16 and $300 million will deepen its
relations with China. In the process it might lure Russia to join. Eventually
this development would be viewed as a kind of proxy war between India-US and
China-Pakistan in the region. With the West having retracted security forces,
Pakistan refusing to act on Taliban and Afghanistan lacking the means and
resources to match Taliban aggression, the long war would continue for years.
The only way India and Afghanistan can exert pressure on Pakistan is by internationalizing
and exposing the clandestine state sponsored terrorism patronized by Rawalpindi. Pragmatically India has embraced this new
strategy. Moreover, by pledging developmental assistance India successfully
ensconced itself in a propitious position.
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