Prime Minister Narendra Modi is
scheduled to embark on a three nation visit to France, Germany and
Canada from April 9th. The major thrust areas are energy, job
creation and boosting Indian economy through Make in India initiative. The
purported visit which also included a trip to Brussels was shelved down due to
the lack of initiative from the EU head quarters as it was perturbed by the
delay in rendering justice to the two Italian marines who allegedly shot down
two Indian fishermen in Indian waters. Even India’s refusal to toe in line with
Western sanctions against Russia for the Ukrainian crisis might have been
another reason. France and Germany have a different perspective and India too
is keen on strengthening bilateral relationships with both these countries.
This is Modi’s first visit to Europe apart from the brief stopover in Berlin en
route to Brazil for attending the BRICS summit in 2014.
A visit to Brussel’s could have
helped India to foster better relationships with the EU. India has had long
standing relations with the EU, the block of 28 countries from 1990 and
strengthened in 2004 when both sides have agreed to become strategic partners. EU
has been the biggest trading block with trade in goods and services hovering
around $100 billion by 2014. Though numerous India-EU committees and summits
were organised over a period of time to tackle various issues ranging from
climate change to education to science and technology both sides failed to seal
a free trade agreement (FTA). The earlier signatory countries include of FTA
with EU were South Korea, Mexico and China. Now EU has shifted its focus to the
US and is close to sealing the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP).
As of now India-EU’s Broad based Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA) is mired
by several contentious issues with Intellectual Property Rights topping the
centre of objection. Trade analysts believe that slackening of the IPR rights
might be inimical to the progress of Indian industry. Even at the World Trade
Organisation (WTO), third world countries and India complained against the EU
for its highly subsidised agriculture and existing protectionist barriers like
high tariff regime and politically motivated sanitary and phyto- sanitary
measures (SPS). Eventually the third World countries are reduced to a highly
disadvantaged position and are denied of equal footing in the multilateral
trade. EU has started adopting a protectionist approach following economic
recession of 2008 and due to its mounting sovereign debt crisis it failed to recover
to its pre-recession status. India too suffered indirectly as its exports to EU
had sharply declined. EU is now looking for markets for its own goods. At this
juncture it is far more unlikely that EU might accommodate Indian interests and
prospects of FTA are very dim.
France and Germany have different
view and unlike other European countries, their economy has potential to grow.
In his first leg of visit Modi is scheduled to meet France President Francois
Hollande and would take a boat ride with him on the river Seine. This might
hold some important lessons to Modi who is pushing for greater utilisation of
the internal water ways for rapid transport of goods. Besides strengthening bilateral
ties and defence cooperation with France, other important aspects of the agenda
are the purchase of the Dassault Aviation’s Rafale fighter planes worth $20
billion and the Multicrore Maitri surface to air Missile system project and
installation of six nuclear power plants at Jaitapur (Maharashtra). France has
been traditionally an important partner of India who supported India during the
1998 nuclear tests and has been willing to participate in technology transfer.
India has a greater scope for striking economically beneficial deals with
France as President Hollande is too under intense pressure for its poor
economic showdown and lacklustre growth. MoU’s on space cooperation, smart
cities, preservation of old heritage towns, tourism, anti –terror training
between National Security Guards (NSG) of India and France GIGN special force
is expected. Deals amounting between $5 billion and $8 billion in investment
and manufacturing are likely to be finalised over the next five years with
France. To sentimentally honour the Indian Soldiers who have laid down their
lives fighting the battle of Neuve
Chapelle during the World War I Modi will pay symbolic visit to the Neuve Chapelle
war memorial.
In Germany Modi will inaugurate the
famous Hannover Messe 2015 Fair along with Chancellor Angela Merkel and then
head to Berlin for one-to-one bilateral talks with the Chancellor. Hannover
Messe Fair is very important for India as Modi is more inclined to push his pet
initiative Make in India. Modi will be accompanied by a big contingent of 120
business bigwigs, around 100 ministers from both centre and states along with
seven chief ministers. Over 400 companies from 17 states are participating in
this fair. States like Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab,
Gujarat and Rajasthan are setting up their state stalls besides the Indian
Pavilion. Thus states too can directly engage and strike direct deals.
Companies from around 100 countries are expected to participate in this fair.
By far this will be biggest opportunity for India to make a big start in the
manufacturing sector. Augmented focus of Modi’s government on renewable energy
sources of power, science, technology, engineering and marketing is in line
with German aspirations and can boost trade relations. Modi will walk through Chancellor Merkel
through select Indian stalls and then both of them would proceed to attend the
inaugural session of Indo-German Business Meet. Apart from rigorous emphasis on investment
flows, talks about shared political goals to reform the UN Security Council
might figure in the talks. Youth Employment and skill development the top most
priorities for the government would be focus of Indo-German Engagement.
In the third and final leg Modi
will proceed to Canada making him the first Prime Minister to visit Canada on a
bilateral tour after Indira Gandhi in 1973. Modi already met Canadian President
Stephen Harper on sidelines of the G20 Summit in November 2014.. Canada is home
for the one of the biggest concentrations of Indian Diaspora. India is largest
trading partner of Canada in South Asia. Modi’s three day long tour in Canada
will have three stopovers in Ottawa, Vancouver and Toronto India has good
relations with Canada. The Conservative party even supported Modi during elections
and sided with him when Western countries imposed sanctions on him. Modi will
sign two crucial agreements- Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement
(CEPA) and a commercial pact for the supply of nuclear fuel, an extension of
civil nuclear agreement. Canada supported India’s stand for NSG (Nuclear
Suppliers Group) waiver and was the first country to formally complete the
requirements for the civil nuclear agreement.
Canada has 22% of Uranium
production of the World and Indian companies are keen in investing in mining as
Canada permits 49% partnership in mining companies. India and Canada owe their
existence to the shared values of democracy and pluralism and growing Indian
economy would offer enormous opportunities for investment. Furthering bilateral
ties, trade and investment can greatly benefit citizens of both these
countries. On April 15th Modi will address Indian Diaspora at
Toronto’s Ricoh’s Coliseum modelled on lines of Madison Square Garden and
Allphones Arena in Sydney. The event is being organised by Overseas Friends of
BJP and Indo-Canadian Community. Modi the icon of diplomacy and eloquent
oratory is set to reach out to the vast Indian Diaspora for greater business
engagement with India. Modi will also visit the Gurudwara Khalsa Diwan and
Laxmi Narayana Temple in neighbouring Vancouver county Surrey. While several
radical Sikh organisations which support the Khalistan Movement are planning to
stage a protest, Modi’s visit to Gurudwara might appease moderate Sikhs and can
brighten prospects of BJPs in ensuing assembly elections of 2017 back home in
Punjab.
Brussel’s ineptitude to host Modi
had initially scuttled the enthusiasm of the tour, as India lost a great
opportunity to provide a major fillip to India-EU ties. If Modi can repeat the success
of his Japan visit, which resulted in commitment of investments close to $ 40
billion, inking of crucial economic packages with all the three nations will be
a major shot in arm for economic aspirations of India.
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