Tuesday, 7 April 2015

Energy, Security and Jobs top Modi's Itinerary


Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to embark on a three nation visit to France, Germany and Canada from April 9th. The major thrust areas are energy, job creation and boosting Indian economy through Make in India initiative. The purported visit which also included a trip to Brussels was shelved down due to the lack of initiative from the EU head quarters as it was perturbed by the delay in rendering justice to the two Italian marines who allegedly shot down two Indian fishermen in Indian waters. Even India’s refusal to toe in line with Western sanctions against Russia for the Ukrainian crisis might have been another reason. France and Germany have a different perspective and India too is keen on strengthening bilateral relationships with both these countries. This is Modi’s first visit to Europe apart from the brief stopover in Berlin en route to Brazil for attending the BRICS summit in 2014.

A visit to Brussel’s could have helped India to foster better relationships with the EU. India has had long standing relations with the EU, the block of 28 countries from 1990 and strengthened in 2004 when both sides have agreed to become strategic partners. EU has been the biggest trading block with trade in goods and services hovering around $100 billion by 2014. Though numerous India-EU committees and summits were organised over a period of time to tackle various issues ranging from climate change to education to science and technology both sides failed to seal a free trade agreement (FTA). The earlier signatory countries include of FTA with EU were South Korea, Mexico and China. Now EU has shifted its focus to the US and is close to sealing the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). As of now India-EU’s Broad based Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA) is mired by several contentious issues with Intellectual Property Rights topping the centre of objection. Trade analysts believe that slackening of the IPR rights might be inimical to the progress of Indian industry. Even at the World Trade Organisation (WTO), third world countries and India complained against the EU for its highly subsidised agriculture and existing protectionist barriers like high tariff regime and politically motivated sanitary and phyto- sanitary measures (SPS). Eventually the third World countries are reduced to a highly disadvantaged position and are denied of equal footing in the multilateral trade. EU has started adopting a protectionist approach following economic recession of 2008 and due to its mounting sovereign debt crisis it failed to recover to its pre-recession status. India too suffered indirectly as its exports to EU had sharply declined. EU is now looking for markets for its own goods. At this juncture it is far more unlikely that EU might accommodate Indian interests and prospects of FTA are very dim.

France and Germany have different view and unlike other European countries, their economy has potential to grow. In his first leg of visit Modi is scheduled to meet France President Francois Hollande and would take a boat ride with him on the river Seine. This might hold some important lessons to Modi who is pushing for greater utilisation of the internal water ways for rapid transport of goods. Besides strengthening bilateral ties and defence cooperation with France, other important aspects of the agenda are the purchase of the Dassault Aviation’s Rafale fighter planes worth $20 billion and the Multicrore Maitri surface to air Missile system project and installation of six nuclear power plants at Jaitapur (Maharashtra). France has been traditionally an important partner of India who supported India during the 1998 nuclear tests and has been willing to participate in technology transfer. India has a greater scope for striking economically beneficial deals with France as President Hollande is too under intense pressure for its poor economic showdown and lacklustre growth. MoU’s on space cooperation, smart cities, preservation of old heritage towns, tourism, anti –terror training between National Security Guards (NSG) of India and France GIGN special force is expected. Deals amounting between $5 billion and $8 billion in investment and manufacturing are likely to be finalised over the next five years with France. To sentimentally honour the Indian Soldiers who have laid down their lives fighting the battle of  Neuve Chapelle during the World War I Modi will pay symbolic visit to the Neuve Chapelle war memorial.

In Germany Modi will inaugurate the famous Hannover Messe 2015 Fair along with Chancellor Angela Merkel and then head to Berlin for one-to-one bilateral talks with the Chancellor. Hannover Messe Fair is very important for India as Modi is more inclined to push his pet initiative Make in India. Modi will be accompanied by a big contingent of 120 business bigwigs, around 100 ministers from both centre and states along with seven chief ministers. Over 400 companies from 17 states are participating in this fair. States like Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Gujarat and Rajasthan are setting up their state stalls besides the Indian Pavilion. Thus states too can directly engage and strike direct deals. Companies from around 100 countries are expected to participate in this fair. By far this will be biggest opportunity for India to make a big start in the manufacturing sector. Augmented focus of Modi’s government on renewable energy sources of power, science, technology, engineering and marketing is in line with German aspirations and can boost trade relations.  Modi will walk through Chancellor Merkel through select Indian stalls and then both of them would proceed to attend the inaugural session of Indo-German Business Meet.  Apart from rigorous emphasis on investment flows, talks about shared political goals to reform the UN Security Council might figure in the talks. Youth Employment and skill development the top most priorities for the government would be focus of Indo-German Engagement.

In the third and final leg Modi will proceed to Canada making him the first Prime Minister to visit Canada on a bilateral tour after Indira Gandhi in 1973. Modi already met Canadian President Stephen Harper on sidelines of the G20 Summit in November 2014.. Canada is home for the one of the biggest concentrations of Indian Diaspora. India is largest trading partner of Canada in South Asia. Modi’s three day long tour in Canada will have three stopovers in Ottawa, Vancouver and Toronto India has good relations with Canada. The Conservative party even supported Modi during elections and sided with him when Western countries imposed sanctions on him. Modi will sign two crucial agreements- Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) and a commercial pact for the supply of nuclear fuel, an extension of civil nuclear agreement. Canada supported India’s stand for NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group) waiver and was the first country to formally complete the requirements for the civil nuclear agreement.

Canada has 22% of Uranium production of the World and Indian companies are keen in investing in mining as Canada permits 49% partnership in mining companies. India and Canada owe their existence to the shared values of democracy and pluralism and growing Indian economy would offer enormous opportunities for investment. Furthering bilateral ties, trade and investment can greatly benefit citizens of both these countries. On April 15th Modi will address Indian Diaspora at Toronto’s Ricoh’s Coliseum modelled on lines of Madison Square Garden and Allphones Arena in Sydney. The event is being organised by Overseas Friends of BJP and Indo-Canadian Community. Modi the icon of diplomacy and eloquent oratory is set to reach out to the vast Indian Diaspora for greater business engagement with India. Modi will also visit the Gurudwara Khalsa Diwan and Laxmi Narayana Temple in neighbouring Vancouver county Surrey. While several radical Sikh organisations which support the Khalistan Movement are planning to stage a protest, Modi’s visit to Gurudwara might appease moderate Sikhs and can brighten prospects of BJPs in ensuing assembly elections of 2017 back home in Punjab.

Brussel’s ineptitude to host Modi had initially scuttled the enthusiasm of the tour, as India lost a great opportunity to provide a major fillip to India-EU ties. If Modi can repeat the success of his Japan visit, which resulted in commitment of investments close to $ 40 billion, inking of crucial economic packages with all the three nations will be a major shot in arm for economic aspirations of India.
 
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