India’s surgical air strikes leaves Pakistan flabbergasted

The outrage in the aftermath of the Pulwama terror attacks on Feb 14^th was unprecedented. Public anger was palpable. The gruesome attack targeting the security personnel from across different states of India brought the nation together like never before. Despite the anger a nation of 1.3 billion was silently praying and fervently hoping retribution. Within 100 hours of Pulwama attacks, the masterminds of the suicidal attack Kamran alias Ghazi Rasheed, chief commanding officer, recruiter and close aide of Masood Azhar and two other Jaish operatives were killed in a joint encounter launched by Jammu and Kashmir Police, Special Operations Group (SOG), CRPF and Rashtriya Rifles (RR). In the combing operation that lasted several hours four security personnel including a Major lost their lives. While the count of security forces losing their lives in successive gun battles began to increase, India remained resilient. Modi government which named Jaish-e-Mohammed for the suicidal attack on the CRPF convoy promised extract revenge.

For decades India has been at the receiving end, silently absorbing the nefarious aftershocks of Pakistan’s proxy war. Under duress, Pakistani administration as a face-saver would promise to investigate and nab perpetrators if provided an actionable intelligence.  Despite Pakistan’s duplicity, India would submit dossiers and letters of rogatory.  While the piles of the dossiers catch dust, Pakistan’s strategic assets would hatch yet another attack on India wreaking havoc in India. This unending passive cycle of absence of punitive action from India side has emboldened Pakistan. The surgical strikes carried out Indian Army in the aftermath of the Uri attack, a departure from the past, set a new precedent. But when Nagrota attacks remained unanswered, Pakistan resorted to its old nefarious tricks.

The dastardly suicidal attack on security personnel at Pulwama the worst terror attack till date miffed India terribly. Aside plausible military action, India contemplated a slew of economic, diplomatic, tactical and military measures. Days after Pulwama attack, India withdrew MFN (Most Favoured Nation) status accorded to Pakistan, raised the import duty to 200% to strangulate the economy reeling under financial distress. While people debated merit of economic sanctions, Pakistan’s exports which included fertilisers and cement are produced in Pakistani army-controlled factories. By choking trade, India directly hit the funding sources of the terror operatives. By nipping bilateral trade, a breather for sinking Pakistan’ economy thriving on meagre $13 billion just enough for six weeks of exports was snapped thereby hitting Pakistan where it hurts. India has decided to stop the flow of its share of water to Pakistan from the Eastern rivers. Ranked as the third most water stressed nation in the World according to latest IMF (International Monetary Fund) report, stalling water will have grievous consequences. Diplomatically, India has apprised the comity of nations of Pakistan’s proxy war. In a worst diplomatic embarrassment, UNSC issued a statement, condemning the reprehensible act of terrorism of the Pakistan based terror group JeM. Building a strong case for diplomatic isolation in the aftermath of UNSC condemnation, France has agreed to move a resolution at UNSC to impose ban on JeM and its commanders Masood Azhar’s brother-Abdul Rauf Asghar, Ibrahim Athar and Shahid Latif accused in Pathankot attacks.

As a message to Pakistan, India intensified crackdown on Pakistan sympathisers, Indian government revoked security cover of 155 Kashmiri separatists. In anticipation of emergent circumstances, government detained Chairman of Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF), Yasin Malik and pro-Pakistan Jamaat-i-Islami leaders and airlifted 100 companies of paramilitary forces. Simultaneously, NIA raided the houses of JLKF leaders to unearth the hawala money trails between these leaders and Pakistani agents.

Continuing with the multipronged action, on the thirteenth day of Pulwama attacks Indians woke to be pleasantly surprised by the news of pre-dawn attacks by India Air Force on the terror camps in Pakistan terror hubs. For the first time since 1971 Indian forces entered Pakistan territory and conducted aerial strikes. Even during the Kargil war, IAF didn’t cross the LoC. According to official reports, 12 Mirage-2000 aircrafts took off from Agra and Gwalior with a pay load of 1000kg launched strikes at terror camps of JeM, LeT and Hizbul Mujahedeen in an operation that lasted 21 minutes. Jets struck Balakot around 3:45am, Muzaffarabad-3:48am and Chakoti-3:58am.  Mirage-2000 the predecessor of Rafale and proven work horse of IAF played a crucial role in tilting the fortunes of battles in favour of India during the Kargil war has played a crucial in the current airstrikes. Upgraded Mirages with Laser-guided bombing mechanism are chosen for avenging the Pulwama attacks.

The choice of Balakot, a town in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province in Pakistan, 50 km from LoC and 185km from Islamabad, a veritable terror has historical significance as well. Balakot was home to Syed Ahmad Barelvi, a strong proponent of Deoband ideology who aspired to establish a caliphate challenging the authority of the flourishing Sikh Kingdom. The armies of Maharaja Ranjit Singh defeated the Deoband forces in the battle of Balakot. Situated atop of the hill top, Balakot harbour JeM training camp that offers aquatic training to fidayeen squad.

Unlike in 2016, MEA issued a statement on strikes on JeM training camps. Calling Pakistan’s bluff India claimed JeM, led by Masood Azad which is operating from Bahwalpur in Pakistan has been carrying out terror strikes against India for the past two decades including the Pulwama attacks, Pathankot airbase strike and 2001 Parliament attacks. Despite providing requisite details about the terror organisation and its functioning Pakistan refused to take concrete steps to dismantle terror infrastructure on its soil. Having received credible intelligence reports of JeM plotting suicide terror attacks in India, in face of imminent threat, India launched “pre-emptive” “non-military” strikes on the terror training camps in Pakistan. Defending India’s right to self-defence under UN charter, New Delhi indicated that Balakot training camp led by the brother-in-law of Masood Azhar, Maulana Yousuf Azhar was flattened. In the process, all the trainers, recruits and commanders of JeM were also killed. Asserting its firm resolution to take stringent actions to curb the menace of terror, India defended the strikes. India also reminded that Pakistan promised not to allow its territory for terrorism against India in 2004. But unfortunately, even now the unabated terror emanating from Pakistan continues to consume India’s peace and harmony.

India’s audacious retaliation is a stern warning to Pakistan that New Delhi will not only make noise at international forum but would extract revenge at the time and place of its choosing. By irresolutely destroying camps inside Pakistan and Pakistan Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (Muzaffarabad and Chikote) India shunned its reluctance to cross borders for destroying the terror hubs. By officially announcing India’s strikes on Pakistan terror camps, New Delhi refused to take any cover and unequivocally displayed its zero-tolerance approach towards terror.  By taking the bull by its horns, India showed that it can no longer be subdued into inaction by Islamabad’s threat of use of nuclear weapons.

In a blow to Pakistan’s hubris which is reported to be on high alert since Pulwama attacks in anticipation of Uri kind of surgical strikes, IAF entered deep inside Pakistan territory and returned home unharmed. IAFs precision strikes have not only reflected its professional prowess but its supreme caution in avoiding civilian casualties sent out a clear message to the World at large that India is a mature country. While Pakistan is scrambling for options and is intent on extracting a revenging for entering its territory, India don’t have any terror camps to hit. Any strikes on military camps will invite international censure. Pakistan is in a catch-22 kind of situation where a retaliatory attack on India will invite an international rebuke and a widespread public ire if it fails to escalate. Besides, the confusing signals from Pakistan of one fraction repudiating the strikes and another condemning them exposed its ineptness in handling the situation.

Post-strikes, India is not complacent. Given Pakistan’s history it will hit back at India to salvage it pride. To this end, all airbases and military camps are kept under high alert. India’s multi-pronged approach towards Pakistan suffice to say India doesn’t believe that a single strike can change Pakistan. A panoply of coercive measures must be employed. The veracity of strikes reflects the emergence of resurgent India. Though political parties are shy of acknowledging the current dispensation for these audacious strikes, it must be remembered that IAF offered similar strategy after 26/11 but the UPA regime refused to bite the bullet. Similar strikes were contemplated between 1981 and 1983 against Pakistan but these were never put in practice. After the Cabinet Committee on Security Meeting on February 15^th Modi announced forces will be given free hand to strike the forces who orchestrated ghastly Pulwama attacks. After twelve days Pulwama attack is avenged. With the strategic air strikes, India deftly avoided a full-blown war, a scenario anticipated by China.  In a remarkable development, hours after India’s official announcement of strikes on terror camps, Australia outrightly condemned Pakistan for perpetrating terror and asked it to rein in on terror outfits. Interestingly, neighbouring China the last country to condemn Pulwama attacks has criticised India for taking unilateral action. Apart from shielding Masood Azhar through repeated technical hold, Beijing said, “As for India’s claims on taking action against terrorism, fighting terror is a global practice. It needs to be dealt with international cooperation. And India needs to create a favourable condition internationally for that”. This statement inadvertently reflects China’s complicity in terror, aversion to call Pakistan’s bluff and its culpability in Pakistan’s state sponsor terrorism.

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Venezuela becomes new play field for geopolitical rivalries

Festering political uncertainty in Venezuela has turned the country into a play field for geopolitical rivalries. The oil-based economy which began treading a downhill is now staring at an abyss. Absence of formidable political will to revive and resuscitate the failing economy and an aversion to democratic transition has in part exacerbated the crisis which has worsened irrevocably.

Flung apart from India by several thousands of miles geographically, Venezuelan crisis is grabbing headlines in India. Venezuela’s oil Minister and President of state run-oil company PDVSA (Petroleos de Venezuela), Manuel Quevedo who was in India to attend the Petrotech Conference in Greater Noida offered to double oil exports to India.  This offer came in the backdrop of toughest US sanctions on PDVSA which kicked off on January 28^th. As per the US restrictions, oil companies in Venezuela and American subsidiaries are prevented from making deposits towards oil purchases directly into the accounts of PDVSA. Sanctions came into existence in response to gruelling political upheaval in Venezuela. Putting rest to all speculations of India’s interest in Venezuelan oil, Ministry of External Affairs clarified that India will stick to earlier agreements and ruled out scope for any more extra oil imports in the wake of fresh American sanctions.

Venezuela has been tumbling down the road of economic growth ever since President Maduro’s first stint in 2013 and reached a point of no revival by 2016. Unperturbed by massive protests, amidst opposition boycott and public anger Maduro emerged victorious in a heavily rigged Presidential elections of 2018. Despite calls from international observers’, US, Venezuelan opposition, Latin American Lima Group, elections weren’t declared null and void.  To contain brewing public discontent, Maduro jailed opposition leaders. As of December 2018, economy hit a new low, hyperinflation touched 10 million times and nearly 2.3 million people fled the country.  On January 10^th Maduro sworn in for the second six years term by the Supreme Court infiltrated by Maduro loyalists in a ceremony largely shunned by international community. US openly denounced Maduro’s highly illegitimate elections. US, Brazil and Colombia refused to recognise his leadership. Paraguay severed diplomatic ties with Venezuela and closed its embassy. But President Maduro remained defiant and failed to take any measures to stem the free fall of Venezuelan currency.

To consolidate his authority, Maduro stripped National Assembly of its legislative powers and rendered it powerless. Instead he elevated National Constituent Assembly containing his loyalists. With the support of security forces and approval of National Constituent Assembly, Supreme court judges administered oath of office to Maduro. Riled by the authoritarianism of Maduro who rode to power through illegitimate elections, people thronged to streets and took massive protests. Opposition demanded fresh elections. But Maduro blatantly rejected the proposal. Lending directionality and legitimacy to protests, invoking constitutional provision, the majority leader of the opposition in National Assembly, industrial engineer, Juan Guaido self-appointed himself as the interim President of Venezuela to oversee conduct of free and fair elections. Leopoldo Lopez, the tallest opposition leader of Venezuela who is under detention since 2014 is the political mentor of Guaido.

As the leader of the National Assembly, Guaido began to reach out to other countries. A dozen EU countries, several Latin American countries, US and Canada supported Guaido while Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, Bolivia, Cuba, Syria, Cambodia, North Korea, Suriname, South Africa, Dominica backed Maduro. Soon momentum for fresh presidential elections began to gain ground. Irked by growing support to Guaido, Maduro alleged that recognition of Guaido is akin to a coup hatched by the US. But US contended that it is an embrace of democracy. The countries that threw weight behind either of these leaders, took the issue to UNSC. The political fight in Venezuela eventually headed to UNSC where US demanded annulling the results of Venezuelan 2018 Presidential elections and conduct of fresh elections. Russia on the other hand, called for peaceful resolution of the crises. As the crisis intensified, UN General Secretary called for dialogue to resolve the crisis. Venezuelan warring political leadership that refused to oblige. Even the comity of nations that supported the two Venezuelan leaders remained deeply divided.  

Cold war rivals America and Russia which are supporting the rival factions Guaido and Maduro found themselves on the opposite sides. In a bid to support their respective groups, both have offered humanitarian aid. America dispatched aid which was stopped by the Armed forces loyal to Maduro who pledged to stop American aid. While the common man in Venezuela continued to suffer there is no let down from both sides. At this juncture, Guaido has set a deadline of Feb 23^rd to allow the aid to pass into the country reeling under severe humanitarian crisis due to shortages of food and medicine. In the meanwhile, Trump at Miami rally urged Venezuelan military to accept Guaido’s offer of amnesty or “stand to lose everything”. Maduro on the other hand, announced that Russia aid of 300 tonnes due to arrive on Wednesday can take of country’s needs. Venezuela continues to reel under the political impasse. But it is an interesting story how the richest country in Latin America is reduced to rags.

Back in 2017, the author wrote a piece on the role of non-viable grandiose Chinese investments that exacerbated tumultuous economic collapse of Venezuelan economy- https://myind.net/Home/viewArticle/venezuelas-dictatorial-socialist-regime-chinese-cash-have-pushed-the-country-towards-a-catastrophic-collapse. This piece will elaborate another facet of how poor economic management of resource-dependent economy accelerated its collapse from riches to rags. Venezuela, the fifth largest oil exporting country has the largest reserves of non-conventional oil (extra crude) oil reserves in the World.

Venezuela became independent in 1830 and established ties with America by 1835. With the discovery of petroleum reserves in 1914 on the shores of Lake Maracaibo the country hit a jackpot. It eventually transformed into a petrostate and economy began to rely entirely on petroleum exports. Venezuela led by authoritarian leaders, power rested in privileged few and over years political institutions gradually crumbled. Soon the economy was afflicted by what is termed as “Dutch Disease” where the discovery or availability of huge amounts of natural resources lead to an increase in the wealth of the country due to sudden boom in the prices the resource in global markets. Typically, majority of the Petrostates whose economies are reliant on the oil exports go through boom and bust cycles. When international oil prices soar, these economies attract huge foreign capital, currency will appreciate, income levels and standard of living will also increase. Subsequently, tradable sectors like agriculture and manufacturing which were less remunerative failed to attract people, labour-intensive sectors suffered neglect. Oil became life-line of the economy. By consequence, with a fall in oil prices, economy collapsed. Consequently, the fortunes of economy were subject to fluctuations of the global oil prices. Economic uncertainties are exacerbated by gross financial mismanagement of dictators at the helm of the affairs who controlled the oil sector.

From early 1920s till 1950s Venezuela was ruled by authoritarian leaders-Juan Vincete Gomez and Marcos Perez Jimenez who regimes were marred with frequent coups. Exasperated by frequent coups, in 1958 Venezuela adopted two-party democracy and elected first stable government. According to the new system, all the elite which enjoyed the shares from the oil exports formed what is termed as “Pacted democracy”, a term coined by Terry Lynn Karl where all the privileged class, the power elite lobbyists had guaranteed access to power in proportion of the votes garnered. Translating into simple terms, the revenues from the oil exports were shared among the parties in proportion to voting results. Venezuela joined as founding member of OPEC (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries) in 1960. In the aftermath of Yom-Kippur war when prices of oil quadrupled, Venezuelan economy boomed, making it the highest per capita income Latin American country. In 1976 President Andres Perez nationalised the oil industry, PDVSA which actively partnered with foreign companies. This arrangement called as Punto-Fijo pact was in vogue till 1980s began to fall apart with the decline of oil prices.

In the span of roughly three decades of rising oil prices, Venezuela witnessed rampant corruption and reports peg this amount to whopping $100 billion. As a matter of fact, intellectuals, argue that Venezuela had been victim of corruption ever since its inception as an independent country. Even now, judicial authorities’ express helplessness in curtailing this menace. Ruled by dictatorial regimes, embezzlement of wealth and scandals have become an associated phenomenon of governance. Baring a brief period in 1960s by and large the country’s finances were swindled by forces close to top echelons of power.

In 1970s when prices of oil tripled, Venezuela unveiled “The Great Venezuela” designed along the lines of Mao’s “Great Leap Forward” left the economy high and dry.  Despite huge inflows of petrodollars, Venezuela has fallen into debts with international banks because of its overambitious project of turning South Venezuela into a huge urban inhabitation through 300-state owned companies. Lack of fiscal discipline, rolling out of numerous welfare projects inflicted huge blow to economy. Caracas even sought the refuge of International Monetary Fund for a financial bailout package. Dismayed by alarming corruption, rising inflation and sinking economy, people protested for a change.

Military officer, Hugo Chavez after his unsuccessful coup bid, pledged to alleviate poverty through Bolivarian revolution was desperate people voted him to power in 1999. Chavez’s subsidies ameliorated poverty but emptied state coffers. Days after assuming power, he convoked a National Constituent Assembly to promulgate a new constitution. Assembly comprised majorly his followers who set out to redefine the state. Chavez dismissed democratically elected Congress, dismissed Supreme judges, Attorney General and replaced them with his loyalists. In 2000 as per new constitution, fresh elections were held and Chavez was re-elected for a term of six years. His outlandish socialist policies, nationalisation of private oil firms, ruthless crackdown of press, characteristic of a dictatorial regime took a huge toll on the economy reducing it to shambles. In 2002 huge protests broke out against Chavez regime. Military withdrew support and forced Chavez to resign. Business man Pedro Carmona, with American support launched a coup. But within 2 days, with the support of blue class workers, Chavez returned to power. He removed 20,000 PDVSA workers who participated in state protests. This move directly impacted oil production. Oil Production slumped by 2013 drastically. There was no iota of transparency in management of finances. Debts mounted. Despite the grave mismanagement, economy remained afloat due to raising oil prices from 2003-12. In a referendum held in 2009, people voted for removing any term limits allowing Chavez to continue in power. Detected with Cancer, Chavez underwent treatment but died in 2013. The fourteen long years of Chavez regime exemplified the 21^st Century version of socialism shattered the economy.

In the Presidential elections held in 2013, Nicolas Maduro, chosen successor of Chavez got elected. Maduro made no attempts to revive the economy. Indeed, under his regime, Oil production tumbled, international oil prices fell, inflicting double blow to the economy. Inflation touched new peaks, unemployment increased. Despite popular unrest he made no efforts to steer the country away from the socialistic formulations.  In the midterm elections of 2015, opposition parties commanded majority in National Assembly. Since 2016, Venezuela descended into chaos. By 2017 Maduro, forced Supreme Court to annul the legislative powers of National Assembly rendering it powerless. In May 2017, Maduro ordered to redraft a fresh constitution.

Noted economists opine that Venezuela has reached a point of no return where the Petro State has become a failed economy. Afflicted by double whammy of authoritarianism and Dutch Disease and devoid of robust democratic institutional frameworks, strategists are sceptical about the reversal of fortunes of the one of the resource-rich countries of the World. Having realising the dire prospects of deepening reliance on oil exports, various Petro States are now establishing Sovereign Wealth Funds to diversify their finances, and make investments in international assets to cushion the economy against the boom and bust cycles of their resource dependent economies.

 Ever since South America’s democratic transition in 1980, Latin America aspired to reduce the interference of foreign forces into this region. But unfortunately, owing to reluctance of Guaido and Maduro to hold negotiations, US and Russia from who both leaders draw their support are expected to play major role in Venezuelan showdown. With reports of Russia sending 400 mercenaries to protect Maduro and Maduro dispatching 20 metric tonnes of Gold to Russia abroad mysterious passenger jet are abound, it is likely that Russia and China which have high stakes in Venezuela would meddle in the region’s affairs. With Venezuela shutting air and sea links to Dutch Caribbean islands, Venezuelan standoff shows no signs of respite even as country plunges into worst humanitarian crisis ever.

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Mohammed bin Salman disappoints India by failing to name Pakistan for Pulwama attacks

Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, popularly known as MBS in the aftermath of the dastardly Pulwama attack drew attention of strategists and political masters for various reasons. Ever since the brutal murder of The Washington Post Columnist, Jamal Khashoggi’s murder in Saudi Arabia Consulate at Istanbul, MBS reputation took a massive hit. European countries kept their ties with Saudi on a low key. But President Trump, wary of losing $40 billion defence purchases, tipped to revitalise American economy and boost employment refrained from openly condemning MBS for his complicity in murder. Undeterred by these troubling precedents, Prime Minister Modi met MBS along the side-lines of G-20 Summit at Argentina. Modi’s engagement with MBS drew sharp criticism. Media and activists rebuked Modi, leader of the largest democracy for holding talking with MBS despite grievous charges of human rights violation against him. Modi who had been unequivocally working towards fostering Indian interests had kept away from the Khashoggi’s murder and the shifting strategic realignments in the West Asia. Amidst criticism of bad diplomatic move, bad judgement, Prime Minister Modi extended an invitation to MBS, the king in waiting for a state visit. Indeed, setting a stellar example for fine diplomatic balancing, Modi held trilateral talks with contrasting groups- Japan, America, India (JAI) and Russia, India and China (RIC) back to back at Buenos Aries. Modi’s ease of precarious diplomatic handling indeed drew applause from international observers who closely watched the G-20 summit at Argentina.

India’s ties with West Asian countries dived south after 1979. The historic visit of King Abdullah to India on the eve of Republic Day celebrations and subsequent signing of the “Delhi Declaration” marked the revival of bilateral ties. Later Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on his visit to Saudi in 2010 signed the “Riyadh Declaration” laying ground for fostering ties. Prime Minister Modi on his visit to Desert Nation in 2016 infused fresh energy into the relationship. Modi’s renewed interest to tread the path of convergence of mutual interest heralded a new beginning. Unlike India’s ties which are built on firm grounds of civilizational and historical connect with Saudi Arabia religion catalysed Pakistan’s bonhomie with Riyadh. Cooperation under the rubric of OIC (Organisation for Islamic Cooperation), a collective of Islamic countries eventually brought the countries in West Asia close to Pakistan who supported Islamabad’s stance on Kashmir at UN. Indeed, generous flow of finances from Saudi helped Pakistan to tide over various international sanctions.

With time, Saudi’s ties with Pakistan varied from being to good to worse. To balance its rocky relationship with Western neighbour, Pakistan refused to send troops for Saudi-led coalition war against the Houthi rebels backed by Iran in Yemen. Losing no time, to placate the hefty financial west Asian power, Pakistan’s former Army chief Raheel Sharif agreed to command the Islamic coalition forces. Currently debt-ridden Pakistan economy is going through worst financial crisis and struggling to keep its debt-ridden afloat. America stalled its financial assistance to Pakistan for its unrestrained support to cross border terrorism. Pakistan is grappling with double-whammy of empty coffers and new infamy of mothership of terror.

Saudi on the other hand, disowned by the West due to murder charges against MBS is facing a domestic turmoil of internal feuds among Royal clan and escalating tensions with Iran. Miffed by America’s unilateral withdrawal from nuclear treaty Iran renewed its efforts in mastering missile technology. A wary Saudi is now keen on obtain a deterrent. Uncovering Saudi’s nuclear ambitions, NPR (National Public Radio), revealed that President Trump under the influence of his former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn recommended transfer of nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia. Just six months before Flynn’s appointment as NSA, he served as adviser to IP3 International Company, a private firm seeking to build nuclear reactors in Saudi. Given, Pakistan’s prowess in nuclear technology, nuclear cooperation has become a new front of cooperation between two countries. Tightening its influence over Pakistan, Saudi offered timely financial assistance to Pakistan and subsequently Islamabad allowed it troops to fight along with Islamic coalition in Yemen. The strategic calculus of Pakistan-Saudi relations includes- financial assistance, nuclear cooperation, defence cooperation and plausible investments in Gwadar region besides the traditional supply of men and resources for perpetuating radical Islamism.

Shunned by the West, the King in waiting, MBS embarked on his maiden trip to Asian countries- Pakistan, India, China, South Korea in order. Earlier the itinerary included Malaysia and Indonesia but cancelled for unknown reasons. His visit to Islamabad preceded Pakistan sponsored terror outfit Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM)’s suicide attack on a convoy carrying Indian security personnel that killed 45 men in service. This attack not only raised the temperatures in the sub-continent and irrevocably damaged India-Pakistan relations but India seething with anger has vowed diplomatic isolation. Islamabad welcomed MBS with a 21-gun salute, gifted him a gold-plated gun, declared Monday a public holiday in his honour and conferred Nishan-E-Pakistan, highest civilian award amidst international rebuke and condemnation for being a state sponsor of terror.

In Islamabad, MBS offered to pitch in to de-escalate tensions between India and Pakistan and the joint statement “their commitment to continue combatting extremism and terrorism and expressed their deep appreciation for the achievements and sacrifices made by the two sides in the war against terrorism. They also applauded the martyrs who sacrificed their lives in order to confront this serious scourge and called the international community to shoulder its responsibilities to join all international efforts to combat global terrorism. They also underlined the need for avoiding politicization of UN listing regime” is in sharp contrast to India’s position and seems to override the objections of New Delhi which has been seeking the support of like-minded countries to join in fight against terrorism. Especially the last line seems to stall India’s efforts to place Masood Azhar, head of JeM in the international list of terrorists.

Pakistan is known to be a patron of Saudi. Hence a joint statement, absolving themselves from all the terror activities is no surprise. But a day before Pulwama attacks, European Commission included Saudi Arabia and Pakistan to EU’s money-laundering blacklist of governments calling the bluff of both countries. Charmed by Pakistan’s hospitality and Imran Khan chauffeuring MBS, Saudi Arabia has apparently, acknowledged Pakistan’s efforts towards regional peace and security, praised Khan’s for persisting with idea of dialogue with India, opening of Kartarpur Corridor and Islamabad’s role in promoting peace and stability in Afghanistan. Through subversive portrayal of Pakistan and awkward whitewashing of the duplicitous and deceitful role of Pakistan for the tumultuous affairs in the sub-continent MBS has offended India hours before his visit to New Delhi.

Undoubtedly, Pakistan is Saudi Arabia’s preeminent ally on ideological basis. Of late, influenced by the rapid strides of its closest Emirati peer, UAE is attempting to reorient itself as a moderate and open country. Grappling with travails of an oil-dependent economy, MBS unveiled, Vision 2030 with a key emphasis on strategic international investments. Saudi realised the immense opportunities of partnering with the fastest developing economy. Being one of the fastest growing economies on the planet, India presented immense opportunities for growth and investment.

To avoid hyphenating his Pakistan’s visit with that of India, MBS flew back to Riyadh from Islamabad and landed in New Delhi making his trip a standalone visit. In a departure from official protocol, Prime Minister Modi received Crown Prince at the airport in reciprocation of MBS assent to India’s request to fly back to Riyadh before arriving at New Delhi. Modi welcomed MBS with his characteristic bear hug. Modi’s gesture is an endorsement to MBS attempts of transform its traditionally, closed economy to an investment friendly nation. Taking a cue from UAE which markedly metamorphosized into an international investment and business hub, Saudi is taking baby steps to wean off economy from Petrodollars. Indeed, Saudi’s Armaco along with UAE are planning to build $44 billion mega oil refinery at Ratnagiri, Maharashtra. Given the strangle hold of fundamental Islamists over the Saudi regime, people are sceptical of MBS and his intentions. Moving away from the traditional setting where the umbilical cord of religion brought nations together, West Asian nations have realised need for cultivating ties with developing economies. The east ward leaning of MBS believed to be apprenticing with UAE is an effort in this direction.

In 2015, King Salman offered assistance in evacuation of over 4000 Indians stranded in Yemen instilling trust and confidence in Indo-Saudi strategic relationship. Ever since, the suicide bomb attack before the US consulate at Jeddah by a Pakistani national, Saudi called for rigorous vetting and tougher screening for Pakistani nationals. In 2017, Saudi deported 40,000 Pakistanis on the grounds of security concerns. Riyadh’s hardened stance to curb terrorism raised new hopes about its role in counter terrorism. By facilitating deportation of key suspects in various scams and terror suspects in Emirates, Middle East countries have earned trust and faith crucial for nurturing bilateral ties.

Unmindful of political backlash over MBS’s proclamations of “consider me Pakistan’s ambassador to Saudi Arabia” in Pakistan, Prime Minister Modi personally received the King in waiting at the airport. Over 3.2 million strong Indian expatriate community work in Saudi Arabia who remit over $10 billion to India annually. As a custodian of two holiest Islam shrines, Saudi holds a sway among billions of Muslims. Besides it is an influential member in organisations like Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) that plays a huge role in overlooking the welfare of millions of Indian blue-collar workers migrating to Middle East. As a founding member of OPEC (Oil and Petroleum Exporting Countries) and OIC (Organisation of Islamic Cooperation), Saudi has huge global clout. After Modi’s meeting with MBS along the sidelines of G-20 summit, Saudi oil minister Khalid Al Falih in the OPEC meeting at Vienna announced that considering the views of Prime Minister Modi, cartel delayed decision on oil production. Consequently, prices of crude stabilised. Currently India is importing 800,000 barrels of crude from Saudi daily and by 2040 India’s requirement is likely to touch 8.2 million barrels per day. Reliable source of oil supplies is essential to keep India’s engines of growth running. Energy cooperation with Saudi Arabia is thus crucial. As a modern democracy, a developing economy like India can’t afford to distance itself in this globally linked interconnected World. Saudi through its new state craft have strengthened ties with US and Israel, emerged as crucial player in geopolitics of strategic Middle East. Modi who pursued a pragmatic foreign policy, thus far stayed away from international conflicts and diligently maintained strong ties with all the three major countries in the Middle East- Saudi Arabia, Israel and Iran.

After the ceremonial red-carpet welcome, MBS called Modi his “elder brother” and added, “the relationship between India and the Saudi Arabian Peninsula has been in our DNA”. Later both leaders held delegation level talks and agreed to strengthen existing “strategic partnership” through creation of Strategic Partnership Council led by both leaders. Countries signed five MoUs on infrastructure investment, tourism, broadcasting, new framework for cooperation and housing. Saudi Arabia joined International Solar Alliance (ISA). Besides the government to government agreements, Saudi Arabian General Investment Authority (SAGIA) signed four investments worth $28 million and 11 MoUs. MBS announced $100 billion investment in India in the areas of energy, refining, petrochemicals, infrastructure, agriculture, mining, manufacturing, education and health. MBS reiterated Saudi’s commitment of meeting any shortages in energy supplies and agreed to participate in India’s Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPRs). Both countries agreed to begin joint naval exercises and expand bilateral exercises to other domains.

The joint statement failed to name Pakistan but instead leaders called upon countries “to renounce the use of terrorism as an instrument of state policy” and strongly condemned the Pulwama attacks. It read, “Affirming that the menace of terrorism and extremism threatens all nations and societies, the two rejected any attempt to link this universal phenomenon to any particular race, religion or culture. Both sides called on all states to reject use of terrorism against other countries, dismantle terror infrastructure where they happen to exist and to cut off any kind of support and financing to terrorists perpetrating terrorism from all territories against other state and bring perpetrators to justice”. Undoubtedly, this affirmation might seem to be a generic statement from a state that had financed the seeds of terrorism. But the statement which is directed to Pakistan is a message from India which is building substantial diplomatic capital to isolate Islamabad internationally.

Further, “the two sides also noted the need for concerted action by the international community against terrorism including through early adoption of UN Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism (CCIT) and underlined the importance of comprehensive sanctioning of terrorists and their organisations by the UN”. The concurrence of Saudi Arabia to “comprehensive sanctioning by UN” is in sharp contrast to Saudi’s stance in Pakistan where it called UN monitored sanctioning as politicising. While it is hard to overlook the inconsistencies of MBS, it is perhaps an indication that New Delhi can’t use its ties with Saudi as a leverage to rein in on Pakistan. Alternatively, MBS batted for enhanced counter terrorism cooperation and real-time intelligence sharing. Both leaders agreed to constitute Comprehensive security dialogue at the level of National Security Advisors and set up a Joint Working Group on Counter-terrorism. As a friendly gesture, Saudi Arabia increased India’s Hajj quota to 200,000 and ordered release of 850 Indian prisoners in Saudi jails. Both countries are planning to integrate the e-Migrate and e-Tawtheeq to create a robust migration system. Saudi assured India to sort out the punitive labour laws that left many innocent Indian unskilled workers stranded in Saudi.

Critics might be tempted to castigate Modi for failing to name and shame Pakistan during MBS visit coming at the tumultuous phase of terror attack. A vast majority was indeed disappointed with MBS for failing to rebuke Pakistan for perpetrating unabated insurgency and terror attacks in Kashmir valley. While Modi’s deft diplomacy has invariably firmed up bilateral ties, MBS failed to dispel India’s concerns of Saudi Arabia as financier of radical Islamism.

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Terror rears its ugly head in Kashmir Valley: Pulwama Attack

India is engulfed by surprise, pain and humiliation. The dastardly Pulwama attack that led to killing of 40 CRPF jawans and 44 injured left Indians seething with rage, anguish and vulnerability. The horrific suicidal attack in the Kashmir valley one of the deadliest attacks in the past two decades saw the return of suicidal attacks in the region. The attack carried out by a local boy in the broad day on a highway marked the resurgence of violent jihadism. As per the reports the attack was carried out by a highly radicalised 22-year old school dropout Adil Ahmed Dhar. In February 2018, he joined the Zakir Musa led terror outfit then switched allegiances and allied with Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM). He rammed an explosive-laden SUV into a bus carrying the CRPF personnel. The 2500-convoy travelling in 78 vehicles became the target of the attack. Minutes after the collision, the bus burst into flames and the bodies were reduced to smithereens. CRPF jawans in the adjoining buses were prevented from coming to the rescue of the affected people as JeM terrorists rained bullets from behind. The nature of the attack, the scale of the brutality and the amount of the planning clearly indicated that it couldn’t have been carried out by an amateur.

Preliminary investigation revealed that as much as 350-kg IED explosives might have been used in the attack. The logistics of bringing such huge amounts of explosives and assembling goes on to show that an extremely skilled professional may have orchestrated the attack. Given the scale of the attack, agencies suspected role of Pakistan deep state has been making some noises on the media networks recently. Connecting the dots and available media reports, it emerges that JeM commander Abdul Rasheed Ghazi, an Afghan war veteran and IED specialist was dispatched to India around Dec 9^th to avenge the deaths of JeM commanders-Talha and Usman, nephews of Azad. Indeed, there was rather a clamour around Feb 9^th the death anniversary of Afzal Guru of a deadly attack in Kashmir Valley. Minutes after the attack, JeM claimed responsibility for the attack.

Devastating attack on the CRPF convoy travelling to Srinagar has come a day after a private school in Pulwama was struck by a bomb explosion which left 12 students injured. Initial reports claim that explosion is caused a student bag but investigators are yet to ascertain the circumstances of the incident. Every year, valley experiences some break from the terror attacks during the winter months as infiltration through the slippery mountain ranges becomes difficult. But this winter, there hasn’t been any respite from the attacks and unrelenting episodes of encounters, search and cordon operations have become an ordeal for security personnel.  As of December 2018, 223 terrorists were neutralised in 429 operations a record high in eight years. The unremitting crackdown on terror led to effective cleansing of terror elements in the valley. On January 24^th Jammu and Kashmir police declared North Kashmir district of Baramulla militant-free after the last three terror operatives of LeT were gunned down. Ten days back India has hosted the Indus water Treaty Pakistan team which inspect the Chenab basin in Jammu and Kashmir. Pulwama attack indeed asserts India’s treatment of Pakistan with kids gloves. While India has accepted the most generous water sharing Indus Water Treaty, arrangement, Pakistan continues to reciprocate with deadly terror attacks on India. Similarly, India accorded Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status to Pakistan in 1996 despite Pakistan’s reservations to reciprocate. In 2016, when the issue came to review, Modi regime hasn’t revoked it. For the past 23 years Pakistan enjoyed unrestrained trade access to India.

Incensed by Pulwama attack, India came down heavily on Pakistan. Mincing no words, MEA held JeM responsible for the attack and said, “The heinous despicable act has been perpetrated by the Jaish-e-Mohammed, a Pakistan-based and supported terrorist organisation proscribed by the United Nations and other countries. This terror group is led by the international terrorist Masood Azhar who has been given full freedom by the government of Pakistan to operate and expand his terror infrastructure in territories under the control of Pakistan and to carry out attacks in India and elsewhere with impunity”. Taking an indirect dig at China for thwarting India’s repeated attempts to black-list Masood Azhar as international terrorist, India appealed members to prevail on the UNSC. India added, “We demand that Pakistan stop supporting terrorists and terror groups operating from their territory and dismantle the infrastructure operated by terrorist outfits to launch attacks in other countries. We strongly reiterate our appeal to all members of international community to support the proposal to list terrorists including JeM chief Masood Azhar, as a designated under the 1267 Sanction committee of the UN Security Council and to ban terrorist organisations operating from territories controlled by Pakistan”. JeM under the tutelage of Pakistan has emerged as the most virulent terror operative. Some of the most deadly of JeM include Parliamentary attacks in December 2001 that killed 14 security personnel, 2016 Pathankot attack and the most second deadly suicidal attack in front of Srinagar secretariat car bombing which killed 38 people and  40 injured.

Heart wrenching visuals of mangled bodies, mounds of flesh scattered across the site of attack have touched raw nerve of Indians. While the first thoughts of Pakistan’s obvious involvement infuriated India, the involvement of locals and ability of the foreign agents to penetrate Indian borders enraged people in the valley. Outpouring of grief flooded the social media networks where people vented their anger and frustration. At a time, when people of every walk of life are expected to stand shoulder to shoulder to overcome brutal tyranny of external agents, disjointed, incongruent and politically motivated statements inadvertently turned the focus towards the vested interests operating within the country. Unlike other terrorist attacks, when the government and people unequivocally attributed external agents for the terror attacks, Pulwama attack changed country’s perspective towards terrorism. This attack prompted government to look inwards.

While lashing out at Pakistan for supporting, aiding, abetting and patronising terror, Jitendra Prasad, MoS, PMO termed the act an act of desperation. He added, “I call to question those who while living in India and describing themselves as mainstream Kashmir politicians tend to be apologetic about these terror activities sponsored from across the Indian soil”. He called the bluff of the intellectual brigade of India who tacitly provided cover to the nefarious terror activities in the valley. Terror sympathisers who masquerade as human rights have prevailed on the government to pardon 9730 stone pelters and repeatedly exerted pressure on culling the force strength in the valley. But ironically, these high-profile individuals, politicians and their ilk indulge in soft terrorism under the security cover.

Over the decades, India has been facing the wrath of the terror haven Pakistan which has stratified itself as hub of terrorism in the South Asia and beyond. At the India’s hour of grief while nations in the immediate neighbourhood and across the World expressed their condemnation and shared the pain, India’s western and northern neighbour have remained indifferent. Indeed, China, the brother in arms of Pakistan hasn’t issued any statement condemning the attack. Pakistan has modified its statement twice in a gap of 15 minutes after the release. The hollow statement, which reeked of caprice, malintent and callousness read- “Attack in Pulwama in the India Occupied Kashmir is a matter of grave concern. We have always condemned acts of violence anywhere in the world. We strongly reject any insinuation by elements in Indian media and government that seek to link that attack to Pakistan without investigations”. In the second statement, Pakistan replaced the India Occupied Kashmir with Jammu and Kashmir. The insincere condemnation of reducing the brutal terror inflicted by its strategic assets to mere violence reflected insensitivity of Pakistan. Aggravating the situation further, Pakistan resorted to unprovoked firing from across LoC in Poonch district. Hours after Pulwama attack, terrorists attacked a police station in Shopian district. These two events further exposed the duplicity and disingenuity of Pakistan.

Successive Indian governments have been considerate towards Pakistan which has mastered the art of asymmetric warfare. Though current regime gave a free hand to security personnel to retaliate and even carried out a surgical strike to avenge the Uri killings, Indian efforts still seem to be insufficient to extricate terror.  The Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) meeting held in the aftermath of Pulwama attack revoked Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status accorded to Pakistan inflicting a blow to a crumbling Pakistan economy. Prime Minister Modi has promised to fight Pakistan tooth and nail and assured a befitting retaliation. In the meanwhile, India received overwhelming support from like-minded nations. Hours after the attack, US strongly condemned the attack, extended condolences to the families of the bereaved security personnel and issued a travel advisory to Pakistan. Referring to the attack, White House press secretary said, “This attack will only strengthen our resolve to bolster counter terrorism cooperation and coordination between the United States and India”. A pledge from US at a time, when rifts between the US and China are widening has a huge geopolitical ramification. Besides, Pakistani Deep State’s act of unleashing terror against India might prompt America to rethink about its withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. It might prompt them to reassess the involvement of Pakistan in the Afghan peace talks with Taliban. China’s silence has undeniably exposed its credentials as patron of terror for being at the forefront in shielding Pakistan on international platforms. Till now, Pakistani generals were held responsible for terror attacks now China would have to partake the blame.

Pakistan had no qualms in waging an asymmetric warfare to foster anti-India agenda for decades. India must now use its international clout to isolate Pakistan diplomatically. Last week Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan held talks with IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde along the side-lines of World Government Summit in Dubai for a bailout package to rescue its sinking economy. India should use its 3% voting rights to stall the package. Further it must exert pressure on FATF to monitor diversion of finances to terror conduits. Besides these outstanding events, India shouldn’t be averse to Balkanisation of Pakistan, severing diplomatic ties and impose pre-conditions on Pakistan-friendly nations keen on doing business with India.

Simultaneously New Delhi must be well advised to refrain from falling into the Pakistani trap of using cultural ties or historical ties as a bait to backstab India. Imran Khan through his Kartarpur Sahib corridor bait effectively gave wings to his India’s policy of taking two steps in response of India’s one step forward.

Time has now come for India to take the bull of terrorism by its horns. To extricate terror, India must strike at its roots which are deeply entrenched in the ideology of the radical Islamism that advocates and eulogises Jihad. India must censure and punish the non-state actors who advocate soft terrorism. All the aspects which goes into spread of this ideology must be attacked. These includes financial conduits, source of the ideology, recruitment and indoctrination. A multipronged approach must be rolled out to monitor activities of underground and over ground cadres. In fact, radicalised individuals who are the potent executioners of terror attacks undergo years of training, planning and targeting to inflict grave damage. An effective counterterrorism approach must encompass strategies to knockdown various tiers of this non-conventional warfare. International Community has always shied away from acknowledging the role of odious ideologies to address the scourge of terrorism. Fidayeen video which emerged after the Pulwama attack underscored the impact of the hateful ideologies on terrorism. Indian intelligence agencies must keep an eagle’s eye on developments in valley, like draping the remains of terrorists in IS flags, hoisting Pakistan flags and the ideologically charged Friday sermons. Random events like the IS-style execution of a 25-year old woman in Shopian district of valley by unknown militants must be keenly invested. All the subversive theories advocating role of socio-economic parities like poverty, unemployment or fissures in society in terrorism is just a sham. The unpalatable reality of the 21^st century is that modern world is tasked to take on medieval age war stratagems that ruthlessly patronised barbaric violence and supremacy of a particular ideology.

In this election season, Indian politicians might be tempted to make irresponsible statements against current dispensation for political brownie points. Instead political parties must exercise restraint in nation’s interest. Putting differences at bay and leaders must join hands to chart out strategies for a war of terror. 

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India reaches a major milestone by taking over the operations of Chabahar port

Setting the precedent of surging ahead in the pursuit of overcoming the barriers of connectivity, India formally took over operations of the Chabahar port on December 24^th. The historic moment which can be reckoned as major foreign policy milestone have boosted India’s efforts of rebuilding war-torn Afghanistan. India’s joint venture company, India Ports Global company began functioning from its offices at Shaheed Behesti Port Chabahar. Soon Joint Secretaries of all the three countries-India, Iran and Afghanistan held first follow-up committee meeting for implementation of the trilateral Chabahar agreement. They agreed on the routes for trade and transit corridors between three countries and finalisation of the protocol to “harmonise transit, roads, customs and consular matters”. They even discussed measures to decrease logistics costs. Second round of meeting will be held on February 26^th 2019 to promote and popularise the port.

Pakistan denied land access to Indian goods crippling India’s trade with Afghanistan and Central Asian countries. Ever since India has been exploring ways to bypass Pakistan. Giving a major fillip to India’s connectivity, Prime Minister Modi on his visit to Iran signed trilateral agreement for Establishment of International Transport and Transit in 2016. India even signed a MoU with EXIM Bank which extended a line of credit of $150 million for refurbishing the port and $85 million towards development of two berths at Chabahar.

In 2003 NDA-I regime headed by Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee realised the strategic significance of the Chabahar, the only Iranian port along the Makran coast which has direct access to Indian Ocean. Indian government subsequently initiated talks with Iran government. But with Iran coming under sanctions regime in 2005, talks on Chabahar talks took a back seat. Incidentally, against the backdrop of Iran signing a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or widely known Iranian Nuclear Deal with P5 countries and Germany, when all economic sanctions were lifted on Iran, India finalised the Chabahar deal.  After President Trump unilaterally pulled out from the JCPOA in May 2018 a fresh round of US sanctions kicked off from November 4^th. A gloom of uncertainty loomed over Chabahar port agreement. Subsequently India held talks with American officials seeking waiver of port from US sanctions.

India relentlessly worked towards reconstruction of Afghanistan by offering unstinted financial support, training Afghanistan security forces and in capacity building. Last year when Afghanistan was hit by drought India shipped 1.1 million tonnes of Wheat through Chabahar port. This move not only paved way for operationalisation of the port but expanded the trading opportunities with land-locked Afghanistan. Pakistan by refusing transit of Indian goods through its territory tried to consolidate its control over Afghanistan through Taliban. India steadily worked towards exploring the alternate access to Afghanistan through Chabahar. Simultaneously, India opened air-cargo corridor to Afghanistan to overcome Pakistan barrier for trade. In 2017, Iran offered India a proposal to manage phase I for two years, subsequently Tehran gave India approval for operating two berths and few terminals in Phase II for ten years. In the meanwhile, China intensified its efforts to develop the Gwadar port 76 nautical miles from Chabahar. Going by the pace of Chinese construction, observers believed that Chabahar would face stiff competition from Gwadar located in Baluchistan province of Pakistan. Back then Union Minister for Shipping, Road Transport and Highways Nitin Gadkari announced that Chabahar operationalisation would start by end of December.  America which is fighting war against in Afghanistan for the past 17 years appreciated India’s efforts. Trump acknowledged India’s role in his South Asia strategy. Last month America announced its exemption for Chabahar port and added that, “it relates to reconstruction assistance and economic development of Afghanistan. These activities are vital for the ongoing support of Afghanistan’s growth and humanitarian relief”. India’s fervent efforts finally bore fruit and formal operations began this week.

Chabahar besides providing alternate sea access to Afghanistan will play a pivotal role in bolstering India’s attempts to buttress connectivity with Russia. India is planning to construct a railway line to Zahedan which can connect to International North-South Corridor. Currently Indian shipments to Afghanistan are transported on the Delaram-Zaranj road constructed by New Delhi. Road from the Afghan-Iran border to Chabahar already exists. Afghan Permanent representative to UN welcomed America’s decision, “The Chabahar port remains an important gateway for providing commercially viable access to the sea linking the Indian Ocean with Afghanistan, Central Asia and beyond. In this regard we appreciate the collaboration and flexibility of our strategic partner, the United States to work with Afghanistan, Iran and India towards exempting the port from its sanctions”.

Challenges

India’s venture in the Gulf region through which nearly 70% of the imports flow to the rest of the World is a real game changer. India leasing operationalisation of Chabahar for a decade from Iran at the height of US-Iran rivalry is replete of several challenges.

India Ports Global (60:40 joint venture between Jawaharlal Port Trust and Deen Dayal Trust, Kandla) is a private entity. Now government of India is slowly obtaining shares of the company else the private company which face the threat of getting black listed for doing business with Iran as per American sanctions. In 2016, Indian Ports Global signed an agreement Aria Banader Iranian port to run the container and multi-purpose terminal at Shaheed Behesti port. Iran even demanded a Euro-denominated bank guarantee in 2016 to generate minimum business at the port. Since fresh round of US sanctions, Iran has come down. As per latest estimates the port is assured of annual business worth $22.95 million. Weeks before final operations are to begin at Chabahar, armed Sunni-group Ansar a-Furquan carried out a suicide bomb attack that killed two people and left 43 injured. This reminded India of complex discord in the region. Besides the exemption on Chabahar port, America sanctioned waivers to eight countries including India for importing oil from Iran till March 2019. India prefers Iranian crude for its 60-day credit, free shipping and insurance. Iran is the largest supplier of oil to India. To overcome sanctions barrier, India and Iran have signed an agreement in November 2^nd for oil payment in rupees and 50% of these funds had been earmarked for exports. India is exploring the possibility of similar payment mechanism with Russia, Venezuela. Iran couldn’t risk the possibility of zeroing of imports from Iran considering its ever-increasing demand for oil which make up for 83% of India’s total imports. Aside energy security good ties with Iran are extremely important for India to over Pakistan barrier and to bolster its trade and commerce with Chabahar serving as the connectivity hub.

Indo-Iranian Ties

India’s ties with Iran are several centuries old. In contemporary times strengthened the North Alliance to overthrown the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. Iran, western neighbour of Pakistan is always at logger heads with Islamabad rooted in sectarian differences. Going by the old logic of enemy of an enemy is a friend India renewed friendly ties Iran to hedge against Pakistan in this multipolar world.

Despite the convergence over Afghanistan issue in 1990s there are several irritants in Indo-Iranian relations. In 2005, India supported the International Atomic Energy Agency report backed by American at the UNSC leading to imposition of multilateral sanctions against Iran for its stealth nuclear infrastructure and nuclear ambitions. Angered by India’s stand, Iran cancelled LNG exports to India. Indian Space Agency, ISRO launched an anti-Iranian Israeli spy satellite in 2008. India and Iran had serious differences over the ONGC explorations in 2010 and the much-touted oil pipe line between India and Iran never took off.

On the other hand, Iran extended financial support to Kashmiri insurgents fighting government of India during the 1987-elections. Similarly, in 2012 Iran is alleged to have sponsored attacks against Israeli diplomats in New Delhi. While Iran stayed away from making an issue out of strengthening Indo-Israel relations, India never interfered in sectarian Iran-Saudi Arabia rivalry in the Gulf region. Both countries did tough balancing act, made several adjustments to prevent relations from deteriorating beyond point of no return.

Notwithstanding the sanction regime prior to the finalisation of JCPOA, during Obama regime, India continued to import oil from Iran by making payments in rupees. India thus made every effort to sustain the energy partnership. But now the precarious Indo-Iranian relations are challenged by the burgeoning US-Iran confrontation.

Geopolitical Ramifications

Unilateral withdrawal of American from the JCPOA and subsequent imposition of sanctions has left the country in a lurch. Prospects of a slippery financial situation frustrated the Iranian public who have been bearing the brunt of growing inflation, stalled incomes and unemployment. Protests erupted across the country. People rebelled against the Hassan Rouhani government that painstakingly negotiated nuclear deal with the west. Fundamentalists and Iranian clergy lashed out at America for reinstating second round of sanctions on Iran. Trump’s relentless attacks on Iran pushed into Russian orbit. Iran and Russia having fought Syrian on the same side are now seeking to strengthen their ties. Given, Iran’s importance for energy security and strategic geographic location in its global connectivity initiative, China ramped up cooperation with Tehran. Javad Zarif, foreign Minister of Iran, invited China to invest in Chabahar before unilateral American sanctions. Considering the ongoing the trade conflicts between China and America, Chabahar wouldn’t have be granted exemption had China invested in the port development.

On the contrary, pestering Afghan war is making America desperate. Trump administration is losing patience. It openly castigated Pakistan for failing to rein in on Taliban. Unlike in the past when Iran and Russia were on the opposite sides, Tehran is now on same page with Russia, China and Pakistan with respect to Taliban. Indian interests find congruence with those of America with respect to Afghanistan. Essentially Trump’s disruptive foreign policy decision and growing rift with Iran steadily changed the geopolitical power equations.

Win-Win Scenario

By seeking waiver of sanctions, India asserted the strategic importance of Chabahar port in its efforts to revive war-torn Afghanistan and for enhancing prospects of trade and commerce with Central Asian countries. Through operationalisation of port, India ensured that Iran could partake some economic returns providing much needed succour. In the process, New Delhi sent a message that despite its robust defence cooperation and growing ties with America, India will not make comprises on its strategic interests.

While Iran might be miffed by India cutting the oil imports from Iran to zero by March end, relentless anti-Iran campaign by America will increase India’s leverage. Iran will be forced to expedite the conclusion of agreement for use of local currencies in trade. This can prove beneficial for India’s agricultural exports as well. Incidentally, India and Iran are close to finalisation of Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) that would reduce tariffs on identified 80 to 100 products purchased from other country.

Chabahar is India’s first foreign port investment which has potential to shore up India’s trade potential. This is a huge opportunity to Iran as unlike the Bandar Abbas port which opens into Gulf of Hormuz, Chabahar is a deep port and opens directly into Indian Ocean.

In the first week of December, in response to Iran’s test firing of a medium range-ballistic missile capable of carrying multiple war heads, America deployed Nimitz class aircraft carrier USS John C Stennis as a deterrence and task force that can support America’s fight against IS in Syria and war in Afghanistan. Iran had also deployed an anti-aircraft stealth destroyer in Straits of Hormuz. Thus, it its maiden foray into the Middle East, India will inadvertently witness and experience the intense confrontations in the region.

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Crucial Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections

South Asia has become seat for high stake geopolitics. Nearly all the countries in the region have embraced democracy. But the fledging democratic institutions are still grappling with political crisis and conundrum. The constitutional crisis in Sri Lanka, military intervention in Pakistan’s electoral process and imposition of state of emergency in Maldives this year stands testimony to this observation. Bangladesh, the South West neighbour of India with which the country shares over 4000 km border is going to polls on December 30^th.  Bangladesh which is liberated in 1971 witnessed 19 coups, authoritarian leaderships and martial law till 1996.   Sadly, even now elections are marred by violence.  As the country prepares for the 11^th Parliamentary elections for choosing 350 members for the Jagtiyo-Sansad (House of the Nation) Election commission has ordered deployment of troops to ensure conduct of free and fair polls.

Unlike the last elections in 2014, when BNP (Bangladesh Nationalist Party) has boycotted the polls, this year the contest is going to be intense. As a pre-condition, BNP demanded conduct of elections under a neutral, caretaker government and release of its leader Begum Khaleda Zia who is now serving jail sentence for embezzlement of funds. Except shifting of election by a week, none of the demands were accepted. Realising that it hardly has any choice, the principal opposition party BNP known for its strong links with fundamentalist organisation, Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) is getting ready for elections. Hence the elections are not going to be a cake-walk for Awami League (AL) led by Sheikh Hasina, daughter of Bangabhandu, founder of Bangladesh, Mujibur Rahman. Struggling hard for political relevance, BNP is now determined to give a tough fight to AL. It must be noted that for the first time in Bangladesh history, elections are not conducted by a caretaker government.

Pro-India Awami League is going to polls with coalition partners Jatiya Party of HM Ershad, former President of Bangladesh, an Islamist party Hejafat-e-Islam and Bikalpdhara Bangladesh party. BNP is going to enter electoral fray after a gap of five years is allied with Jatiya Okiya Front (United National Front), led by Dr Kamal Hossain of Gono Forum. Earlier AL and BNP are clearly distinguished as pro-Liberation, secular front and anti-liberation, Islamic front. In the current elections both parties allied with a coalition of parties with varied distinctions and eventually inherited bunch of contradictions. 

BNP, a pro-Pakistan party, joined hands with Hossain known for his secular credentials and JeI, an avowed fundamentalist Islamic group. Hossein is known to be close to Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and is believed to have played a crucial role in shaping AL after Hasina’s exile in 1981. He formed a four-party alliance just before elections. So far, Bangladesh witnessed a turf battle between two begums which seemed to be more or less evenly poised. But the situation is markedly different now.

Overzealous Hasina, in a bid to contain split of Islamist votes joined hands with radical Islamist group. In the recently held local elections, huge number of Islamists were elected on AL’s ticket. This essentially quashed the hopes of Hasina maintaining the secular credence in Bangladesh.

BNP and its core supporter JeI are fighting for political survival. BNP is hamstrung by lack of leadership with Khaleda Zia serving sentence. Her son, Tarique Rahman convicted for assassination bids against Shiekh Hasina is at large and overseeing the poll preparations from London. His candidature has been disqualified by election commission. In absence of experienced leadership, JeI have taken over the charge of selecting and fielding candidates. JeI was banned in the initial days of Bangladesh formation. But subsequently, political parties lifted the ban. It has become crucial partner of BNP in 2001 and its chief and general secretary served as ministers as well. JeI was deregistered by election commission in 2013. Following High Court’s intervention, the party’s candidates are now contesting in polls as independents. Majority of its cadres are facing charges of war crimes are either sentenced or serving life terms for siding with the Pakistani troops during 1971 Bangladesh Liberation war. JeI which has strong links with Pakistan ISI handlers have good support in the border regions. It has fielded candidates in 25 of the 300 seats under the BNP’s party symbol of sheaf of paddy leaf. Even as AL is wary of JeI making electoral gains, reports of Pakistan meddling in Bangladesh elections exacerbated its fears.

In the run up to elections, a seven-minute leaked conversation between BNP leader Khandaker Moshraff Hossain and Pakistan ISI officer with references to use of Chinese money surfaced. BNP is known to have close ties with Pakistan and this critical evidence added more heft to the suspicions of the ruling party. Around the same news of Charge d affaires, of Pakistan High Commission in Dhaka, Shah Faisal Kakar and defense adviser Brigadier Kamran Nazir Malik met three members of BNP standing committee- Mirza Abbas, Aminul Haq and Khandaker Moshraff Hossain. Alleged reference to Chinese money has become a cause for concern for India given its implicit role in recently concluded Maldivian and Sri Lankan political crisis. India’s fears don’t seem far-fetched considering $34 billion Chinese investments and 25% stakes in Bangladesh stock exchange, Bangladesh is second largest recipient of Chinese money after Pakistan in South Asia. Meddling by external agents and vested interests in elections are commonly reported in Western countries. But countries in South Asia are now finding place in such reports recently. Given, Pakistan’s deep roots in Bangladesh and its all-weather friendship with China, allegations of external meddling can’t be ruled out.

The relations between Pakistan and Bangladesh have been heading south. Recently Bangladesh refused to accept Saqlain Syedah as Pakistani High Commissioner following reports of the diplomatic office being used for fostering ISI activities. Bangladesh even supported India’s stand of boycotting the SAARC Summit at Islamabad in 2016 protesting Pakistan’s hand in terror activities. Brutal terror attack in Dhaka high-end eatery in 2016 investigations revealed Pakistan’s role. Ever since Sheikh Hasina has unequivocally expressed serious objections to Pakistan’s interference in Bangladesh. These reports have certainly strengthened the claims of Hasina.  

AL on the other hand, is facing the heat anti-incumbency and rumours of corruption. People are growing wary of Hasina’s growing authoritarian streak of overbearing surveillance, crackdown on freedom of speech, detention of journalists and activists at the drop of the hat. Airing concerns over instances of intimidation of opposition leaders since September Human Rights Watch raised alarm over existing repressive atmosphere in Bangladesh. Burgeoning reports of false and fabricated cases slapped against the opposition parties, protestors, disappearance and death of poll agents clearly threatened the credibility of elections. The international forum called upon countries to ensure free and fair elections. As a matter of fact, observers from 16 countries have arrived in Bangladesh for conduct of violence free polls.

Despite Hasina’s severe crackdown on dissent, a vast majority hail her decade regime for phenomenal economic growth. For the year 2017-18 Bangladesh recorded 7.86% growth rate, higher than all the developing countries. Country’s economic progress registered upward trajectory since 2008 aided by steadily growing manufacturing sector. The country which is often in the headlines for natural disasters reached a historical moment this year, by graduating from the “least developed country” to a “developing economy” this elevation is an outcome of the broader ambitious vision of Sheikh Hasina. Buoyed by the strong economic growth, people are keen on re-electing Hasina and the party is banking on its developmental agenda to get back to power an unprecedented third time.

But bogged down by allegations of creeping authoritarianism, AL is revoking liberation war and doggedly hunting down on the worst perpetrators of the genocide (opposition BNP & JeI leaders for collaborating with Razakars). Simultaneously AL is seeking the apology of Pakistan for its excesses during the liberation movement. Conforming to worse doubts of people BNP’s formidable supporter JeI is calling for realignment with Pakistan. As a result, BNP is increasingly viewed as party inimical to country’s progress and development and pro-Pakistan.

Despite its contradictions, election analysts contend that BNP would fare well in the border regions while AL will be voted to power in all likelihood for its initiatives, stability and pragmatic economic policies. Though people are miffed by AL’s high-handed politics, muzzling of press, free speech and even patronising criminal elements, BNP as an alternative seems to be worse. But some strategists believe that BNP still has a larger ground presence and support. Barred from elections at the eleventh hour, BNP is expected to garner the sympathy vote of people. Further, BNP’s revival through coalition partners is believed to have reintegrated the core religious forces in the country. Going by Bangladesh’s electoral history  where parties won elections by a margin of 2-3% votes, the scales can tilt in either direction.

Implications for India

Living up to the pledge of cracking down on anti-India terror modules operating from Bangladesh, after taking charge in 2008, Hasina dismantled the terror camps along the Indo-Bangladesh border. Insurgency activities in the North-East have significantly reduced and Indian intelligence agencies credit Awami League for this marked difference. Besides, in the past ten years, India and Bangladesh significantly ramped up cooperation. In 2015, both countries peacefully resolved the four-decade long Land Boundary Agreement and maritime dispute. While the Teesta waters issue still remains a bone of contention, both parties have agreed not to gloat about their differences. Energy cooperation, connectivity and infrastructure development projects received a major boost under Hasina’s regime. Operationalisation of bus, train and river ports between the countries have improved people to people connect. Indian private investments in Bangladesh are now worth $10 billion. New Delhi has extended $7.5 billion credit line for infrastructure projects in Bangladesh. Above all, Bangladesh is essential cog for India’s Act East Policy. Though the bilateral ties have improved significantly there are still major irritants to this relationship. India’s take on Rohingya deportation, NRC in Assam, tariff and non-tariff barriers imposed on Bangladeshi goods are stoking anti-India feelings in Bangladesh. Given, AL’s zero tolerance for terrorism, a third term for Hasina would bode well for India as opposed to BNP which is a Pakistan apologist. While a stable and sustaining democracy country in immediate neighbourhood can be an asset for India, a sweeping victory for AL would shrink space for political dissent in Bangladesh.

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After drawing blank in assembly elections BJP must reinvent itself for 2019 general elections

The much-awaited results for the five assembly elections are finally out. Results for the state of Madhya Pradesh are formally declared after almost 24 hours of the counting, turning it into a longest battle in the EVM era. BJP completely lost election battle in the Hindi heartland, which is its strongest base. Congress convincingly handed it over 3-0 defeat. Touted as the semi-finals before the general elections 2019, the outcomes of the results would indeed offer great insights about the perception of people towards the Modi regime as well. Undeniably the dark cloud of defeat had brought to fore the glaringly defects of the BJP machinery. Despite being the World’s largest political party with over 12 crore primary membership and well-oiled machinery of ground workers, BJP failed to set a narrative. While party cadres successfully mobilised people to vote, unlike their peers in leftist parties, they couldn’t highlight accomplishments of respective state governments. This electoral drubbing has come as a wakeup call to Modi-Shah duo whose electoral invincibility rattled the opposition. In the past four and half years, Prime Minister Modi through meaningful interventions brought about transformative changes in several sectors infusing fresh energy and driving the nation towards larger economic development. With his unstinted efforts and rigorous schedule of seventeen work hours a day, Modi evolved as towering personality with no political equals. Despite these positive attributes. Some thing seems to be gravely amiss.

BJP must be commended for its tough fight in Madhya Pradesh. Notwithstanding the 15 years of incumbency, BJP garnered 0.1% more votes than Congress but narrowly missed the majority mark. Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan will forever be remembered for his great contributions in pulling out the state from the BIMARU status. By bringing about new reforms in agriculture, he catapulted its ailing economy from financial throes. Though people widely acknowledge his phenomenal work the indifference and callousness of some legislators frustrated people. As elections neared, based on ground reports, Chouhan made desperate attempts replace the non-performing legislators with fresh faces. Though this move has contained some losses, it was rather insufficient. Even he made frantic moves to woo backward communities, promised to double the farm prices and announced several sops to win support of people.

In Rajasthan BJP managed to put up a respectable show despite the voter apathy. The loss in terms of absolute numbers from 165 seats in 2013 to 73 seems glaring, the marginal difference in votes polled between BJP and Congress is 1% or turns out be 1 lakh votes. Given the historical record of voting patterns of electorate rewarding BJP and Congress alternatively this may not be really of grave worry. But the issue of agrarian crisis is real and central government must come out with some strategy to alleviate this problem before the general elections. The mobilisation of the party cadre by the central command months before elections has saved party from the disgrace of being completely wiped out in the assembly elections. Besides the complaints of the leaders like Vasundhara Raje being not accessible to party cadres must be addressed and possibly the burden of responsibility should be shifted to shoulders of imaginative youth leaders.

 In Chhattisgarh, after three successful terms by the longest serving Chief Minister, Dr Raman Singh, the party faced a massive defeat. The huge vote share difference of 10% reflected people’s desperation for change. The state elections offered many lessons for the party. Though there is no denying that Singh made a stellar contribution in terms of developing a robust public distribution system for the newly carved out state of Chhattisgarh, he failed to reinvent himself. Interestingly even the state turned a blind eye to rapidly changing demographic composition of the state. The conversion factories had a free run. But the three successful tenures of BJP regime kept the red terror under control. Especially the state made significant progress in the last four and half years, in restricting the purview of red corridor to few pockets. With the change of guard, the menace extremist left wing violence might intensify. Reclaiming the support and trust of people of Chhattisgarh should therefore be among the top priorities of BJP.

The only saving grace for the largest political party of India in youngest state of India, Telangana has been s respectable win of strong Hindutva advocate, Raja Singh Lodh from the Goshamahal constituency. He defeated the nearest TRS (Telangana Rashtra Samithi) candidate by a margin of 16,000 votes. BJP vote share in the state is mere 7%. Interestingly, MIM with 2.7% vote share managed to win 7 seats. TRS riding on the sentiment of statehood, swept the state. The party must indeed be thankful to Chandra Babu Naidu, TDP supremo who joined hands with Congress, its arch-rival, CPI and other local parties to launch Mahakutami as an alternative to TRS. Counting on the support of the settlers from Andhra, Naidu dreamt of making big gains in Telangana.  But people outrightly rejected TDPs politics and voted TRS enmasse. TRS gained immensely from this negative vote. But in the process, BJP’s poll prospects took a beating for failing to present its story in a way people can understand and appreciate. Besides, settlers found TRS as better alternative than Congress or TDP which are brazenly casteist.

MNF’s (Mizo National Front), an ally of BJP victory in Mizoram paved way for a Congress-mukt North East. Facing a decade long anti-incumbency, Congress suffered a humiliating defeat. BJP made its debut in the Christian majority state by polling 8% votes. The Congress chief minister of Mizoram lost in both constituencies he contested.

The stunning defeat for BJP in five assembly elections months before the general elections came as a big jolt. For some time, people have been drawing similarities between the NDA-I of Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Modi’s NDA-II to alert the party of plausible oversights and of unwarranted hubris. As a party which have grown from electoral strength to two parliamentary must now seriously introspect and possibly charter its game plan.

Firstly, BJP has the worst PR machinery which is totally incapable of presenting a narrative. While major financial reforms have hurt the core voter base of the party, the problem is exacerbated by inability of party foot soldiers who failed to convey the intent of the leadership in an effective way. 

Secondly, the political spectrum of India is tilted towards leftist ideology. Hence a right-wing party like BJP must work doubly hard and be very active in setting a narrative. A dedicated team of intellectuals effectively floating the ideology in a nuanced way should be pressed into action to highlight the achievement and accomplishments of the government.

Thirdly, it failed to identify the political vacuum in some states. After the decimation of the Congress from the twin Telugu states, its traditional strong holds, BJP showed little or no interest in making strong inroads into the South bound states.

Fourthly, despite tag of pro-Hindutva party, in the past four and half years, it has alienated itself from the Hindu causes. It hardly evinced interest in standing up for the cause of its dedicated voter base. Donning the mantle of secularism, BJP ambitiously aimed to burnish its image has the most committed secular apostle. Its trepidation and hesitation in taking unequivocal stance on issues like Sabarimala and Ayodhya has even punctured its image. Its strong credentials as supporter of Hindutva causes while in opposition as opposed to its subtle approach when in government confused people. People are now increasingly distrustful of BJP’s commitment.

Fifthly, BJP’s overambitious approach to showcase itself as saviour of minorities amidst orchestrated global tirade against its regime by vested interests has irked people. India has always been inclusive and there was absolutely no need for flaunt its attributes. But government’s indifference to rein in on foreign-funded institutions working in India with nefarious designs has caused disgruntlement among the majoritarian community.

Sixthly, one of the major poll planks of Modi during the 2014 elections has been rooting out corruption. Modi has delivered on this promise and till now there isn’t even a single charge of corruption against the government and its cabinet. But people are miffed by Modi’s inability to arrest, prosecute and jail the corrupt politicians of the scam-ridden UPA regime.

Seventhly, despite its commitment to respect the values of the Indic civilisation. Government hasn’t made even a single attempt to change the academic curriculum replete of twisted, distorted and viciously convoluted derision of India. Not even a single word has been changed in the text books that abuse the country, its long history, tradition and its glorious civilisation wealth.

Eightly, government’s apathy towards gaurakshaks and frailty in going by the false propaganda peddled by the vested groups and acceding to their false narratives without even investigation of individual cases has alienated the dedicated Hindu groups from the party. 

While the results of the assembly elections may not be indicative of the people’s resentment towards Prime Minister Modi. But with general elections few months away, BJP can’t be complacent. It must revitalise, revive and recharge the party cadres with new energy. Besides, it must strongly present its case as why it must be re-elected and why the government needs yet another term. Quintessentially, perception is the key. BJP must be able to present its story in an effective way. Else all the hard efforts of the party which has been working as a strong team infusing best of their energies, potentials will go down the drain. Also, with Congress on strong wicket, it is but inevitable that Rahul Gandhi will be projected as the prime ministerial candidate. Enthused by the resurgence, Congress might be reluctant to make concessions for other political parties or regional outfits. Similarly, TRS has been voicing for an anti-Congress, anti-BJP front for the upcoming elections and after its stupendous victory, it would push for an alliance with like-minded parties. Likely, the opposition parties, which were inclined to form a combined front against Modi till December 10^th might now part ways and align themselves into two fronts. BJP must capitalise on the opposition disunity through meticulous planning, mobilisation of workers and regrouping with friends. As a last-ditch attempt, BJP can bolster its chances of forming government in 2019 by passing some crucial legislations like long pending Satyapal Private Members Bill and possibly an ordinance on Ayodhya in the winter session of parliament which began yesterday.

People have pinned great hopes on Prime Minister Modi. The absolute majority conferred upon BJP in 2014 is a proof of people’s trust in the party led by Narendra Modi. Besides, inclusive economic growth, the land of Sanatana Dharma is yearning for a leader who can uphold the vitality of this hand.  BJP has shown promise of change and as it begins its preparation for the mega battle. It would bode if it can reflect on the famous Uttara Speech of Sri Aurobindo in 1909 where he says “I say no longer say that nationalism is a creed, a religion, a faith; I say that it is Sanatana Dharma which for us is nationalism. The Hindu nation was born with Sanatana Dharma, with it, it moves, and with it, it declines, and if Sanatana Dharma were capable of perishing, with the Sanatana Dharma it would perish. The Sanatana Dharma, that is nationalism”.  At the same time, keeping prejudices, narrow sectarian differences at bay the majoritarian community must make an unbiased assessment of political parties before exercising their votes in the interest of the country at large.

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