Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, popularly
known as MBS in the aftermath of the dastardly Pulwama attack drew attention of
strategists and political masters for various reasons. Ever since the brutal
murder of The Washington Post Columnist, Jamal Khashoggi’s murder in Saudi
Arabia Consulate at Istanbul, MBS reputation took a massive hit. European
countries kept their ties with Saudi on a low key. But President Trump, wary of
losing $40 billion defence purchases, tipped to revitalise American economy and
boost employment refrained from openly condemning MBS for his complicity in
murder. Undeterred by these troubling precedents, Prime Minister Modi met MBS
along the side-lines of G-20 Summit at Argentina. Modi’s engagement with MBS
drew sharp criticism. Media and activists rebuked Modi, leader of the largest
democracy for holding talking with MBS despite grievous charges of human rights
violation against him. Modi who had been unequivocally working towards
fostering Indian interests had kept away from the Khashoggi’s murder and the
shifting strategic realignments in the West Asia. Amidst criticism of bad
diplomatic move, bad judgement, Prime Minister Modi extended an invitation to
MBS, the king in waiting for a state visit. Indeed, setting a stellar example for
fine diplomatic balancing, Modi held trilateral talks with contrasting groups-
Japan, America, India (JAI) and Russia, India and China (RIC) back to back at
Buenos Aries. Modi’s ease of precarious diplomatic handling indeed drew
applause from international observers who closely watched the G-20 summit at
Argentina.
India’s ties with West Asian countries dived south after
1979. The historic visit of King Abdullah to India on the eve of Republic Day
celebrations and subsequent signing of the “Delhi Declaration” marked the
revival of bilateral ties. Later Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on his visit to
Saudi in 2010 signed the “Riyadh Declaration” laying ground for fostering ties.
Prime Minister Modi on his visit to Desert Nation in 2016 infused fresh energy
into the relationship. Modi’s renewed interest to tread the path of convergence
of mutual interest heralded a new beginning. Unlike India’s ties which are
built on firm grounds of civilizational and historical connect with Saudi
Arabia religion catalysed Pakistan’s bonhomie with Riyadh. Cooperation under
the rubric of OIC (Organisation for Islamic Cooperation), a collective of
Islamic countries eventually brought the countries in West Asia close to
Pakistan who supported Islamabad’s stance on Kashmir at UN. Indeed, generous
flow of finances from Saudi helped Pakistan to tide over various international
sanctions.
With time, Saudi’s ties with Pakistan varied from being to
good to worse. To balance its rocky relationship with Western neighbour,
Pakistan refused to send troops for Saudi-led coalition war against the Houthi
rebels backed by Iran in Yemen. Losing no time, to placate the hefty financial
west Asian power, Pakistan’s former Army chief Raheel Sharif agreed to command
the Islamic coalition forces. Currently debt-ridden Pakistan economy is going
through worst financial crisis and struggling to keep its debt-ridden afloat.
America stalled its financial assistance to Pakistan for its unrestrained
support to cross border terrorism. Pakistan is grappling with double-whammy of
empty coffers and new infamy of mothership of terror.
Saudi on the other hand, disowned by the West due to murder
charges against MBS is facing a domestic turmoil of internal feuds among Royal clan
and escalating tensions with Iran. Miffed by America’s unilateral withdrawal
from nuclear treaty Iran renewed its efforts in mastering missile technology. A
wary Saudi is now keen on obtain a deterrent. Uncovering Saudi’s nuclear ambitions,
NPR (National Public Radio), revealed that President Trump under the influence
of his former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn recommended transfer of
nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia. Just six months before Flynn’s appointment
as NSA, he served as adviser to IP3 International Company, a private firm
seeking to build nuclear reactors in Saudi. Given, Pakistan’s prowess in
nuclear technology, nuclear cooperation has become a new front of cooperation
between two countries. Tightening its influence over Pakistan, Saudi offered
timely financial assistance to Pakistan and subsequently Islamabad allowed it
troops to fight along with Islamic coalition in Yemen. The strategic calculus
of Pakistan-Saudi relations includes- financial assistance, nuclear
cooperation, defence cooperation and plausible investments in Gwadar region besides
the traditional supply of men and resources for perpetuating radical Islamism.
Shunned by the West, the King in waiting, MBS embarked on his
maiden trip to Asian countries- Pakistan, India, China, South Korea in order.
Earlier the itinerary included Malaysia and Indonesia but cancelled for unknown
reasons. His visit to Islamabad preceded Pakistan sponsored terror outfit
Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM)’s suicide attack on a convoy carrying Indian security
personnel that killed 45 men in service. This attack not only raised the
temperatures in the sub-continent and irrevocably damaged India-Pakistan
relations but India seething with anger has vowed diplomatic isolation. Islamabad
welcomed MBS with a 21-gun salute, gifted him a gold-plated gun, declared
Monday a public holiday in his honour and conferred Nishan-E-Pakistan, highest
civilian award amidst international rebuke and condemnation for being a state
sponsor of terror.
In Islamabad, MBS offered to pitch in to de-escalate tensions
between India and Pakistan and the joint statement “their commitment to continue combatting extremism and terrorism and
expressed their deep appreciation for the achievements and sacrifices made by
the two sides in the war against terrorism. They also applauded the martyrs who
sacrificed their lives in order to confront this serious scourge and called the
international community to shoulder its responsibilities to join all
international efforts to combat global terrorism. They also underlined the need
for avoiding politicization of UN listing regime” is in sharp contrast to
India’s position and seems to override the objections of New Delhi which has
been seeking the support of like-minded countries to join in fight against terrorism.
Especially the last line seems to stall India’s efforts to place Masood Azhar,
head of JeM in the international list of terrorists.
Pakistan is known to be a patron of Saudi. Hence a joint
statement, absolving themselves from all the terror activities is no surprise. But
a day before Pulwama attacks, European Commission included Saudi Arabia and
Pakistan to EU’s money-laundering blacklist of governments calling the bluff of
both countries. Charmed by Pakistan’s hospitality and Imran Khan chauffeuring
MBS, Saudi Arabia has apparently, acknowledged Pakistan’s efforts towards regional
peace and security, praised Khan’s for persisting with idea of dialogue with
India, opening of Kartarpur Corridor and Islamabad’s role in promoting peace
and stability in Afghanistan. Through subversive portrayal of Pakistan and
awkward whitewashing of the duplicitous and deceitful role of Pakistan for the
tumultuous affairs in the sub-continent MBS has offended India hours before his
visit to New Delhi.
Undoubtedly, Pakistan is Saudi Arabia’s preeminent ally on
ideological basis. Of late, influenced by the rapid strides of its closest
Emirati peer, UAE is attempting to reorient itself as a moderate and open
country. Grappling with travails of an oil-dependent economy, MBS unveiled,
Vision 2030 with a key emphasis on strategic international investments. Saudi
realised the immense opportunities of partnering with the fastest developing
economy. Being one of the fastest growing economies on the planet, India presented
immense opportunities for growth and investment.
To avoid hyphenating his Pakistan’s visit with that of India,
MBS flew back to Riyadh from Islamabad and landed in New Delhi making his trip
a standalone visit. In a departure from official protocol, Prime Minister Modi
received Crown Prince at the airport in reciprocation of MBS assent to India’s
request to fly back to Riyadh before arriving at New Delhi. Modi welcomed MBS
with his characteristic bear hug. Modi’s gesture is an endorsement to MBS
attempts of transform its traditionally, closed economy to an investment
friendly nation. Taking a cue from UAE which markedly metamorphosized into an
international investment and business hub, Saudi is taking baby steps to wean
off economy from Petrodollars. Indeed, Saudi’s Armaco along with UAE are
planning to build $44 billion mega oil refinery at Ratnagiri, Maharashtra.
Given the strangle hold of fundamental Islamists over the Saudi regime, people
are sceptical of MBS and his intentions. Moving away from the traditional setting
where the umbilical cord of religion brought nations together, West Asian
nations have realised need for cultivating ties with developing economies. The
east ward leaning of MBS believed to be apprenticing with UAE is an effort in
this direction.
In 2015, King Salman offered assistance in evacuation of over
4000 Indians stranded in Yemen instilling trust and confidence in Indo-Saudi
strategic relationship. Ever since, the suicide bomb attack before the US
consulate at Jeddah by a Pakistani national, Saudi called for rigorous vetting
and tougher screening for Pakistani nationals. In 2017, Saudi deported 40,000
Pakistanis on the grounds of security concerns. Riyadh’s hardened stance to
curb terrorism raised new hopes about its role in counter terrorism. By
facilitating deportation of key suspects in various scams and terror suspects in
Emirates, Middle East countries have earned trust and faith crucial for
nurturing bilateral ties.
Unmindful of political backlash over MBS’s proclamations of “consider me Pakistan’s ambassador to Saudi
Arabia” in Pakistan, Prime Minister Modi personally received the King in
waiting at the airport. Over 3.2 million strong Indian expatriate community
work in Saudi Arabia who remit over $10 billion to India annually. As a
custodian of two holiest Islam shrines, Saudi holds a sway among billions of
Muslims. Besides it is an influential member in organisations like Gulf
Cooperation Council (GCC) that plays a huge role in overlooking the welfare of
millions of Indian blue-collar workers migrating to Middle East. As a founding
member of OPEC (Oil and Petroleum Exporting Countries) and OIC (Organisation of
Islamic Cooperation), Saudi has huge global clout. After Modi’s meeting with
MBS along the sidelines of G-20 summit, Saudi oil minister Khalid Al Falih in
the OPEC meeting at Vienna announced that considering the views of Prime
Minister Modi, cartel delayed decision on oil production. Consequently, prices
of crude stabilised. Currently India is importing 800,000 barrels of crude from
Saudi daily and by 2040 India’s requirement is likely to touch 8.2 million
barrels per day. Reliable source of oil supplies is essential to keep India’s
engines of growth running. Energy cooperation with Saudi Arabia is thus
crucial. As a modern democracy, a developing economy like India can’t afford to
distance itself in this globally linked interconnected World. Saudi through its
new state craft have strengthened ties with US and Israel, emerged as crucial
player in geopolitics of strategic Middle East. Modi who pursued a pragmatic
foreign policy, thus far stayed away from international conflicts and
diligently maintained strong ties with all the three major countries in the
Middle East- Saudi Arabia, Israel and Iran.
After the ceremonial red-carpet welcome, MBS called Modi his
“elder brother” and added, “the relationship between India and the Saudi
Arabian Peninsula has been in our DNA”. Later both leaders held delegation
level talks and agreed to strengthen existing “strategic partnership” through creation of Strategic Partnership
Council led by both leaders. Countries signed five MoUs on infrastructure
investment, tourism, broadcasting, new framework for cooperation and housing.
Saudi Arabia joined International Solar Alliance (ISA). Besides the government
to government agreements, Saudi Arabian General Investment Authority (SAGIA)
signed four investments worth $28 million and 11 MoUs. MBS announced $100
billion investment in India in the areas of energy, refining, petrochemicals,
infrastructure, agriculture, mining, manufacturing, education and health. MBS
reiterated Saudi’s commitment of meeting any shortages in energy supplies and
agreed to participate in India’s Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPRs). Both
countries agreed to begin joint naval exercises and expand bilateral exercises
to other domains.
The joint statement failed to name Pakistan but instead
leaders called upon countries “to
renounce the use of terrorism as an instrument of state policy” and strongly
condemned the Pulwama attacks. It read, “Affirming
that the menace of terrorism and extremism threatens all nations and societies,
the two rejected any attempt to link this universal phenomenon to any
particular race, religion or culture. Both sides called on all states to reject
use of terrorism against other countries, dismantle terror infrastructure where
they happen to exist and to cut off any kind of support and financing to
terrorists perpetrating terrorism from all territories against other state and
bring perpetrators to justice”. Undoubtedly, this affirmation might seem to
be a generic statement from a state that had financed the seeds of terrorism.
But the statement which is directed to Pakistan is a message from India which
is building substantial diplomatic capital to isolate Islamabad
internationally.
Further, “the two sides
also noted the need for concerted action by the international community against
terrorism including through early adoption of UN Comprehensive Convention on
International Terrorism (CCIT) and underlined the importance of comprehensive
sanctioning of terrorists and their organisations by the UN”. The
concurrence of Saudi Arabia to “comprehensive sanctioning by UN” is in sharp
contrast to Saudi’s stance in Pakistan where it called UN monitored sanctioning
as politicising. While it is hard to overlook the inconsistencies of MBS, it is
perhaps an indication that New Delhi can’t use its ties with Saudi as a
leverage to rein in on Pakistan. Alternatively, MBS batted for enhanced counter
terrorism cooperation and real-time intelligence sharing. Both leaders agreed
to constitute Comprehensive security dialogue at the level of National Security
Advisors and set up a Joint Working Group on Counter-terrorism. As a friendly
gesture, Saudi Arabia increased India’s Hajj quota to 200,000 and ordered
release of 850 Indian prisoners in Saudi jails. Both countries are planning to
integrate the e-Migrate and e-Tawtheeq to create a robust migration system.
Saudi assured India to sort out the punitive labour laws that left many
innocent Indian unskilled workers stranded in Saudi.
Critics might be tempted to castigate Modi for failing to
name and shame Pakistan during MBS visit coming at the tumultuous phase of
terror attack. A vast majority was indeed disappointed with MBS for failing to
rebuke Pakistan for perpetrating unabated insurgency and terror attacks in
Kashmir valley. While Modi’s deft diplomacy has invariably firmed up bilateral
ties, MBS failed to dispel India’s concerns of Saudi Arabia as financier of
radical Islamism.
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