South Asia has become seat for high stake
geopolitics. Nearly all the countries in the region have embraced democracy. But
the fledging democratic institutions are still grappling with political crisis
and conundrum. The constitutional crisis in Sri Lanka, military intervention in
Pakistan’s electoral process and imposition of state of emergency in Maldives
this year stands testimony to this observation. Bangladesh, the South West
neighbour of India with which the country shares over 4000 km border is going
to polls on December 30th. Bangladesh which is liberated in 1971
witnessed 19 coups, authoritarian leaderships and martial law till 1996. Sadly, even now elections are marred by violence.
As the country prepares for the 11th
Parliamentary elections for choosing 350 members for the Jagtiyo-Sansad (House
of the Nation) Election commission has ordered deployment of troops to ensure
conduct of free and fair polls.
Unlike the last elections in 2014, when BNP
(Bangladesh Nationalist Party) has boycotted the polls, this year the contest
is going to be intense. As a pre-condition, BNP demanded conduct of elections under
a neutral, caretaker government and release of its leader Begum Khaleda Zia who
is now serving jail sentence for embezzlement of funds. Except shifting of
election by a week, none of the demands were accepted. Realising that it hardly
has any choice, the principal opposition party BNP known for its strong links
with fundamentalist organisation, Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) is getting ready for
elections. Hence the elections are not going to be a cake-walk for Awami League
(AL) led by Sheikh Hasina, daughter of Bangabhandu, founder of Bangladesh,
Mujibur Rahman. Struggling hard for political relevance, BNP is now determined
to give a tough fight to AL. It must be noted that for the first time in
Bangladesh history, elections are not conducted by a caretaker government.
Pro-India Awami League is going to polls with
coalition partners Jatiya Party of HM Ershad, former President of Bangladesh,
an Islamist party Hejafat-e-Islam and Bikalpdhara Bangladesh party. BNP is
going to enter electoral fray after a gap of five years is allied with Jatiya
Okiya Front (United National Front), led by Dr Kamal Hossain of Gono Forum. Earlier
AL and BNP are clearly distinguished as pro-Liberation, secular front and
anti-liberation, Islamic front. In the current elections both parties allied
with a coalition of parties with varied distinctions and eventually inherited
bunch of contradictions.
BNP, a pro-Pakistan party, joined hands with
Hossain known for his secular credentials and JeI, an avowed fundamentalist
Islamic group. Hossein is known to be close to Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and is
believed to have played a crucial role in shaping AL after Hasina’s exile in
1981. He formed a four-party alliance just before elections. So far, Bangladesh
witnessed a turf battle between two begums which seemed to be more or less
evenly poised. But the situation is markedly different now.
Overzealous Hasina, in a bid to contain split of
Islamist votes joined hands with radical Islamist group. In the recently held
local elections, huge number of Islamists were elected on AL’s ticket. This
essentially quashed the hopes of Hasina maintaining the secular credence in
Bangladesh.
BNP and its core supporter JeI are fighting for
political survival. BNP is hamstrung by lack of leadership with Khaleda Zia
serving sentence. Her son, Tarique Rahman convicted for assassination bids
against Shiekh Hasina is at large and overseeing the poll preparations from
London. His candidature has been disqualified by election commission. In
absence of experienced leadership, JeI have taken over the charge of selecting
and fielding candidates. JeI was banned in the initial days of Bangladesh
formation. But subsequently, political parties lifted the ban. It has become
crucial partner of BNP in 2001 and its chief and general secretary served as
ministers as well. JeI was deregistered by election commission in 2013.
Following High Court’s intervention, the party’s candidates are now contesting
in polls as independents. Majority of its cadres are facing charges of war crimes
are either sentenced or serving life terms for siding with the Pakistani troops
during 1971 Bangladesh Liberation war. JeI which has strong links with Pakistan
ISI handlers have good support in the border regions. It has fielded candidates
in 25 of the 300 seats under the BNP’s party symbol of sheaf of paddy leaf. Even
as AL is wary of JeI making electoral gains, reports of Pakistan meddling in
Bangladesh elections exacerbated its fears.
In the run up to elections, a seven-minute
leaked conversation between BNP leader Khandaker Moshraff Hossain and Pakistan
ISI officer with references to use of Chinese money surfaced. BNP is known to
have close ties with Pakistan and this critical evidence added more heft to the
suspicions of the ruling party. Around the same news of Charge d affaires, of
Pakistan High Commission in Dhaka, Shah Faisal Kakar and defense adviser
Brigadier Kamran Nazir Malik met three members of BNP standing committee- Mirza
Abbas, Aminul Haq and Khandaker Moshraff Hossain. Alleged reference to Chinese
money has become a cause for concern for India given its implicit role in
recently concluded Maldivian and Sri Lankan political crisis. India’s fears
don’t seem far-fetched considering $34 billion Chinese investments and 25%
stakes in Bangladesh stock exchange, Bangladesh is second largest recipient of
Chinese money after Pakistan in South Asia. Meddling by external agents and
vested interests in elections are commonly reported in Western countries. But
countries in South Asia are now finding place in such reports recently. Given,
Pakistan’s deep roots in Bangladesh and its all-weather friendship with China,
allegations of external meddling can’t be ruled out.
The relations between Pakistan and Bangladesh
have been heading south. Recently Bangladesh refused to accept Saqlain Syedah
as Pakistani High Commissioner following reports of the diplomatic office being
used for fostering ISI activities. Bangladesh even supported India’s stand of
boycotting the SAARC Summit at Islamabad in 2016 protesting Pakistan’s hand in
terror activities. Brutal terror attack in Dhaka high-end eatery in 2016
investigations revealed Pakistan’s role. Ever since Sheikh Hasina has
unequivocally expressed serious objections to Pakistan’s interference in
Bangladesh. These reports have certainly strengthened the claims of Hasina.
AL on the other hand, is facing the heat
anti-incumbency and rumours of corruption. People are growing wary of Hasina’s
growing authoritarian streak of overbearing surveillance, crackdown on freedom
of speech, detention of journalists and activists at the drop of the hat. Airing
concerns over instances of intimidation of opposition leaders since September
Human Rights Watch raised alarm over existing repressive atmosphere in
Bangladesh. Burgeoning reports of false and fabricated cases slapped against
the opposition parties, protestors, disappearance and death of poll agents
clearly threatened the credibility of elections. The international forum called
upon countries to ensure free and fair elections. As a matter of fact,
observers from 16 countries have arrived in Bangladesh for conduct of violence
free polls.
Despite Hasina’s severe crackdown on dissent, a
vast majority hail her decade regime for phenomenal economic growth. For the
year 2017-18 Bangladesh recorded 7.86% growth rate, higher than all the
developing countries. Country’s economic progress registered upward trajectory
since 2008 aided by steadily growing manufacturing sector. The country which is
often in the headlines for natural disasters reached a historical moment this
year, by graduating from the “least developed country” to a “developing
economy” this elevation is an outcome of the broader ambitious vision of Sheikh
Hasina. Buoyed by the strong economic growth, people are keen on re-electing
Hasina and the party is banking on its developmental agenda to get back to
power an unprecedented third time.
But bogged down by allegations of creeping
authoritarianism, AL is revoking liberation war and doggedly hunting down on
the worst perpetrators of the genocide (opposition BNP & JeI leaders for
collaborating with Razakars). Simultaneously AL is seeking the apology of
Pakistan for its excesses during the liberation movement. Conforming to worse
doubts of people BNP’s formidable supporter JeI is calling for realignment with
Pakistan. As a result, BNP is increasingly viewed as party inimical to
country’s progress and development and pro-Pakistan.
Despite its contradictions, election analysts
contend that BNP would fare well in the border regions while AL will be voted
to power in all likelihood for its initiatives, stability and pragmatic
economic policies. Though people are miffed by AL’s high-handed politics,
muzzling of press, free speech and even patronising criminal elements, BNP as
an alternative seems to be worse. But some strategists believe that BNP still
has a larger ground presence and support. Barred from elections at the eleventh
hour, BNP is expected to garner the sympathy vote of people. Further, BNP’s
revival through coalition partners is believed to have reintegrated the core
religious forces in the country. Going by Bangladesh’s electoral history where parties won elections by a margin of
2-3% votes, the scales can tilt in either direction.
Implications
for India
Living up to the pledge of cracking down on
anti-India terror modules operating from Bangladesh, after taking charge in
2008, Hasina dismantled the terror camps along the Indo-Bangladesh border.
Insurgency activities in the North-East have significantly reduced and Indian
intelligence agencies credit Awami League for this marked difference. Besides,
in the past ten years, India and Bangladesh significantly ramped up
cooperation. In 2015, both countries peacefully resolved the four-decade long
Land Boundary Agreement and maritime dispute. While the Teesta waters issue
still remains a bone of contention, both parties have agreed not to gloat about
their differences. Energy cooperation, connectivity and infrastructure
development projects received a major boost under Hasina’s regime.
Operationalisation of bus, train and river ports between the countries have improved
people to people connect. Indian private investments in Bangladesh are now
worth $10 billion. New Delhi has extended $7.5 billion credit line for
infrastructure projects in Bangladesh. Above all, Bangladesh is essential cog
for India’s Act East Policy. Though the bilateral ties have improved
significantly there are still major irritants to this relationship. India’s
take on Rohingya deportation, NRC in Assam, tariff and non-tariff barriers
imposed on Bangladeshi goods are stoking anti-India feelings in Bangladesh.
Given, AL’s zero tolerance for terrorism, a third term for Hasina would bode
well for India as opposed to BNP which is a Pakistan apologist. While a stable
and sustaining democracy country in immediate neighbourhood can be an asset for
India, a sweeping victory for AL would shrink space for political dissent in
Bangladesh.
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