Thursday 13 December 2018

After drawing blank in assembly elections BJP must reinvent itself for 2019 general elections


The much-awaited results for the five assembly elections are finally out. Results for the state of Madhya Pradesh are formally declared after almost 24 hours of the counting, turning it into a longest battle in the EVM era. BJP completely lost election battle in the Hindi heartland, which is its strongest base. Congress convincingly handed it over 3-0 defeat. Touted as the semi-finals before the general elections 2019, the outcomes of the results would indeed offer great insights about the perception of people towards the Modi regime as well. Undeniably the dark cloud of defeat had brought to fore the glaringly defects of the BJP machinery. Despite being the World’s largest political party with over 12 crore primary membership and well-oiled machinery of ground workers, BJP failed to set a narrative. While party cadres successfully mobilised people to vote, unlike their peers in leftist parties, they couldn’t highlight accomplishments of respective state governments. This electoral drubbing has come as a wakeup call to Modi-Shah duo whose electoral invincibility rattled the opposition. In the past four and half years, Prime Minister Modi through meaningful interventions brought about transformative changes in several sectors infusing fresh energy and driving the nation towards larger economic development. With his unstinted efforts and rigorous schedule of seventeen work hours a day, Modi evolved as towering personality with no political equals. Despite these positive attributes. Some thing seems to be gravely amiss.

BJP must be commended for its tough fight in Madhya Pradesh. Notwithstanding the 15 years of incumbency, BJP garnered 0.1% more votes than Congress but narrowly missed the majority mark. Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan will forever be remembered for his great contributions in pulling out the state from the BIMARU status. By bringing about new reforms in agriculture, he catapulted its ailing economy from financial throes. Though people widely acknowledge his phenomenal work the indifference and callousness of some legislators frustrated people. As elections neared, based on ground reports, Chouhan made desperate attempts replace the non-performing legislators with fresh faces. Though this move has contained some losses, it was rather insufficient. Even he made frantic moves to woo backward communities, promised to double the farm prices and announced several sops to win support of people.

In Rajasthan BJP managed to put up a respectable show despite the voter apathy. The loss in terms of absolute numbers from 165 seats in 2013 to 73 seems glaring, the marginal difference in votes polled between BJP and Congress is 1% or turns out be 1 lakh votes. Given the historical record of voting patterns of electorate rewarding BJP and Congress alternatively this may not be really of grave worry. But the issue of agrarian crisis is real and central government must come out with some strategy to alleviate this problem before the general elections. The mobilisation of the party cadre by the central command months before elections has saved party from the disgrace of being completely wiped out in the assembly elections. Besides the complaints of the leaders like Vasundhara Raje being not accessible to party cadres must be addressed and possibly the burden of responsibility should be shifted to shoulders of imaginative youth leaders.

 In Chhattisgarh, after three successful terms by the longest serving Chief Minister, Dr Raman Singh, the party faced a massive defeat. The huge vote share difference of 10% reflected people’s desperation for change. The state elections offered many lessons for the party. Though there is no denying that Singh made a stellar contribution in terms of developing a robust public distribution system for the newly carved out state of Chhattisgarh, he failed to reinvent himself. Interestingly even the state turned a blind eye to rapidly changing demographic composition of the state. The conversion factories had a free run. But the three successful tenures of BJP regime kept the red terror under control. Especially the state made significant progress in the last four and half years, in restricting the purview of red corridor to few pockets. With the change of guard, the menace extremist left wing violence might intensify. Reclaiming the support and trust of people of Chhattisgarh should therefore be among the top priorities of BJP.

The only saving grace for the largest political party of India in youngest state of India, Telangana has been s respectable win of strong Hindutva advocate, Raja Singh Lodh from the Goshamahal constituency. He defeated the nearest TRS (Telangana Rashtra Samithi) candidate by a margin of 16,000 votes. BJP vote share in the state is mere 7%. Interestingly, MIM with 2.7% vote share managed to win 7 seats. TRS riding on the sentiment of statehood, swept the state. The party must indeed be thankful to Chandra Babu Naidu, TDP supremo who joined hands with Congress, its arch-rival, CPI and other local parties to launch Mahakutami as an alternative to TRS. Counting on the support of the settlers from Andhra, Naidu dreamt of making big gains in Telangana.  But people outrightly rejected TDPs politics and voted TRS enmasse. TRS gained immensely from this negative vote. But in the process, BJP’s poll prospects took a beating for failing to present its story in a way people can understand and appreciate. Besides, settlers found TRS as better alternative than Congress or TDP which are brazenly casteist.

MNF’s (Mizo National Front), an ally of BJP victory in Mizoram paved way for a Congress-mukt North East. Facing a decade long anti-incumbency, Congress suffered a humiliating defeat. BJP made its debut in the Christian majority state by polling 8% votes. The Congress chief minister of Mizoram lost in both constituencies he contested.

The stunning defeat for BJP in five assembly elections months before the general elections came as a big jolt. For some time, people have been drawing similarities between the NDA-I of Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Modi’s NDA-II to alert the party of plausible oversights and of unwarranted hubris. As a party which have grown from electoral strength to two parliamentary must now seriously introspect and possibly charter its game plan.

Firstly, BJP has the worst PR machinery which is totally incapable of presenting a narrative. While major financial reforms have hurt the core voter base of the party, the problem is exacerbated by inability of party foot soldiers who failed to convey the intent of the leadership in an effective way. 

Secondly, the political spectrum of India is tilted towards leftist ideology. Hence a right-wing party like BJP must work doubly hard and be very active in setting a narrative. A dedicated team of intellectuals effectively floating the ideology in a nuanced way should be pressed into action to highlight the achievement and accomplishments of the government.

Thirdly, it failed to identify the political vacuum in some states. After the decimation of the Congress from the twin Telugu states, its traditional strong holds, BJP showed little or no interest in making strong inroads into the South bound states.

Fourthly, despite tag of pro-Hindutva party, in the past four and half years, it has alienated itself from the Hindu causes. It hardly evinced interest in standing up for the cause of its dedicated voter base. Donning the mantle of secularism, BJP ambitiously aimed to burnish its image has the most committed secular apostle. Its trepidation and hesitation in taking unequivocal stance on issues like Sabarimala and Ayodhya has even punctured its image. Its strong credentials as supporter of Hindutva causes while in opposition as opposed to its subtle approach when in government confused people. People are now increasingly distrustful of BJP’s commitment.

Fifthly, BJP’s overambitious approach to showcase itself as saviour of minorities amidst orchestrated global tirade against its regime by vested interests has irked people. India has always been inclusive and there was absolutely no need for flaunt its attributes. But government’s indifference to rein in on foreign-funded institutions working in India with nefarious designs has caused disgruntlement among the majoritarian community.

Sixthly, one of the major poll planks of Modi during the 2014 elections has been rooting out corruption. Modi has delivered on this promise and till now there isn’t even a single charge of corruption against the government and its cabinet. But people are miffed by Modi’s inability to arrest, prosecute and jail the corrupt politicians of the scam-ridden UPA regime.

Seventhly, despite its commitment to respect the values of the Indic civilisation. Government hasn’t made even a single attempt to change the academic curriculum replete of twisted, distorted and viciously convoluted derision of India. Not even a single word has been changed in the text books that abuse the country, its long history, tradition and its glorious civilisation wealth.

Eightly, government’s apathy towards gaurakshaks and frailty in going by the false propaganda peddled by the vested groups and acceding to their false narratives without even investigation of individual cases has alienated the dedicated Hindu groups from the party. 

While the results of the assembly elections may not be indicative of the people’s resentment towards Prime Minister Modi. But with general elections few months away, BJP can’t be complacent. It must revitalise, revive and recharge the party cadres with new energy. Besides, it must strongly present its case as why it must be re-elected and why the government needs yet another term. Quintessentially, perception is the key. BJP must be able to present its story in an effective way. Else all the hard efforts of the party which has been working as a strong team infusing best of their energies, potentials will go down the drain. Also, with Congress on strong wicket, it is but inevitable that Rahul Gandhi will be projected as the prime ministerial candidate. Enthused by the resurgence, Congress might be reluctant to make concessions for other political parties or regional outfits. Similarly, TRS has been voicing for an anti-Congress, anti-BJP front for the upcoming elections and after its stupendous victory, it would push for an alliance with like-minded parties. Likely, the opposition parties, which were inclined to form a combined front against Modi till December 10th might now part ways and align themselves into two fronts. BJP must capitalise on the opposition disunity through meticulous planning, mobilisation of workers and regrouping with friends. As a last-ditch attempt, BJP can bolster its chances of forming government in 2019 by passing some crucial legislations like long pending Satyapal Private Members Bill and possibly an ordinance on Ayodhya in the winter session of parliament which began yesterday.

People have pinned great hopes on Prime Minister Modi. The absolute majority conferred upon BJP in 2014 is a proof of people’s trust in the party led by Narendra Modi. Besides, inclusive economic growth, the land of Sanatana Dharma is yearning for a leader who can uphold the vitality of this hand.  BJP has shown promise of change and as it begins its preparation for the mega battle. It would bode if it can reflect on the famous Uttara Speech of Sri Aurobindo in 1909 where he says “I say no longer say that nationalism is a creed, a religion, a faith; I say that it is Sanatana Dharma which for us is nationalism. The Hindu nation was born with Sanatana Dharma, with it, it moves, and with it, it declines, and if Sanatana Dharma were capable of perishing, with the Sanatana Dharma it would perish. The Sanatana Dharma, that is nationalism”.  At the same time, keeping prejudices, narrow sectarian differences at bay the majoritarian community must make an unbiased assessment of political parties before exercising their votes in the interest of the country at large.

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