China senses a strategic opportunity in Afghanistan

America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan has created a geo-political vacuum. It has opened up an arena for the regional powers to manage the scenario of post-American retreat. Cognizant of the implications and the regional powers have girded up loins through proactive engagement with Afghan Taliban which claims to be in control of 85% of the territory.

A speedy American withdrawal has exposed the sham of “great war on terror” and accentuated Beijing’s strong conviction that US is in terminal decline. Among others, Beijing is sensing an opportunity to expand its strategic base in this region. For long, China has operated in Afghanistan through its proxy Pakistan. Officially expressing its keen interests culminating with America’s retrenchment from Afghanistan, Foreign Minister ahead of the SCO Foreign Ministers meet and Afghan Contact Group meeting announced, “China’s consistent position on the Afghan issue is to respect Afghanistan’s historical and current conditions and to help but not interfere, which is also what separates China from the US and makes China a mediator or a “guarantor of security” in the region”.

Russian ambassador rightly pointed that the civil war in Afghanistan has been reason behind formation of SCO, “One should not forget that the SCO emerged as a response to immediate threats of terrorism and drug trafficking, which came from Afghanistan in the late 1990s. The SCO idea was born from a collective demand for a regional coalition to combat them”

It is a bizarre irony to even believe that China wouldn’t interfere, given the political influence it wields over political regimes in the region. Indubitably, at a time when China is no longer hiding its global ambitions, Beijing is engaging with both Taliban and the Afghan government to secure their support for CPEC and rope in the country officially into BRI for seamless transport of goods to Eurasia.

China has a three-pronged approach for Afghanistan- backchannel communication through Pakistan, SCO platform and positioning as mediator (hosting Taliban, Heart of Asia Summit and holding Intra-Afghan talks).

Cognisant of Taliban’s close links with ETIM (East Turkestan Islamic Movement), China initially supported UN’s sanctions on the group.  But driven by economic factors and security concerns, when Taliban took to reigns, China forged ties with the terrorist group despite its perceived threat from Islamic extremism. To foster economic ties, in 1999 Chinese officials flew to Afghanistan to secure meeting with Mullah Omar; started flights between Kabul and Urumqi and forged economic ties.

In 2000, China’s ambassador to Pakistan Liu extracted assurances from Mullah Omar to not allow anyone to use its territory for any anti-Chinese activity. In return Omar demanded two things from China-formal recognition and protection against sanctions. But the deal failed. While Omar restrained ETIM, he failed to expel them and China in turn didn’t oppose sanctions at UN but abstained from voting. Neither of the parties fulfilled their promises.

Indeed, on September 11^th 2001, China and Taliban signed MoU to enhance economic ties. Things changed after the 9/11 event China supported US’s war on terror and Taliban and its ties took a back seat. However, China managed to obtained concessions from Taliban to disallow any attacks on its investments in Afghanistan.

Pakistan and China were the only two countries that maintained ties with Taliban after 9/11. Reportedly, Beijing held meetings with this group at Chinese controlled Saindak mikes in Pakistan. After Obama administration announced plans of withdrawing in 2014, China increased involvement in Afghanistan.

China conducted Heart of Asia summit at Beijing in 2014, supported the Pakistan hosted Murree talks for Afghan reconciliation and a political settlement through the Quadrilateral Coordination Group with US, Pakistan, Afghanistan. Took part in Kabul process convened by Ghani in 2017, talks at Moscow in 2018 and hosted a trilateral dialogue with Afghanistan and Pakistan in September 2019. Xi resuscitated Afghanistan Contact Group of SCO. In 2019, China hosted Mullah Abdul Baradar and conducted intra-Afghan talks in 2020.

At the trilateral of the foreign ministers in 2019, countries agreed to extend the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Afghanistan by connecting Peshawar with Kabul. Unlike other countries, China has hedged its bets on major stakeholders of Afghanistan- Taliban (its covert masters Pakistan) and Afghan government. In the pursuit of economic opportunities, exploration of natural resources and military support, President Ashraf Ghani started wooing China. But with US forces still stationed in the country, Ghani refrained from officially acceding to any framework.

China enjoys greater advantage than the West in terms of general acceptance by Afghans as such. West is considered an adversary, whereas China is still coveted as power capable of playing a significant role in peace talks and mediation. But the deep Sino-Pakistan relations cast an aspersion on China’s real intentions. China’s overemphasis on Pakistan is objected by anti-Pakistan forces and Afghan government.

Taliban also considers China as a crucial source of investment and economic support. In fact, in 2007, Beijing managed to potentially secure a lucrative concession from Taliban to prevent any attacks on its projects which included Aynak copper mine. Taliban’s support is crucial for the vast number of projects operating under CPEC and for any fresh strategic investments in the country. But the continued violence and Taliban’s links with ETIM are still a cause of concern for China.

To assuage the concerns of China, Taliban spokesperson Suhail Shaheen announced, “we care about the oppression of Muslims, be it in Palestine, in Myanmar, or in China, and we care about the oppression of non-Muslims anywhere in the World. But what we are not going to do is interfere in China’s internal affairs”, thus staying clear of the raging Uighur human rights debate. Eager to seek China’s acquiescence to their rule, Taliban is striking a fine line of maintaining the balance between its commitment to Islamic ideology and the political ambitions.

Last year it pledged to not to let Afghan territory to be used for terror activities against any country including China. These fresh guarantees reminiscent of the past assurances in 2001 has laid foundation for China’s first major public engagement with Taliban.

Days after US abandoned Bagram airbase, Taliban’s resumed brutal killings and medieval Sharia practices made a comeback. Against Taliban’s famed record of reneging on promises, arguing, “making enemy of the Taliban was not in China’s interest” Beijing welcomed Taliban delegation at Tianjin. This engagement is an extension of a meeting between foreign ministers of Pakistan and China on June 24 who vowed to “bring Taliban to the mainstream”.

Reiterating China’s stance, The Global Times, the CCP mouthpiece described Taliban as “an important militant and political force”. By bestowing legitimacy to a terrorist group and lending acceptability, China typically bolstered the popular perception of inexorably siding with terror perpetrators and patronisers to secure its interests.

For decades, China shielded Pakistan from international censure for its terror activities, UN sanctions against its terror organisations and prevented it from getting black listed by FATF.  By extending similar concessions and paybacks in lieu of reining on ETIM and attacks against its interests in Afghanistan, Beijing meant business. Even as it continues to defend the internment of over 1.5 million Uighurs over terror threats, it refuses to acknowledge the implications of mainstreaming a terror outfit.

By acknowledging the terror outfit as stakeholders in Afghan peace, China has emboldened the terror organisations across the World, who would now brazenly continue to unleash their brutality to leverage a Faustian bargain. US lend credibility by striking peace deal with Taliban and failing to inflict any punishment for breaking it. China is taking to the next level to secure its interests.

Taliban pledged to realise peace, protect human rights and interests of women and children in China. But on ground realities are in sharp contrast to the affirmations of Taliban. For China, denial of Uighur sanctuaries in Afghanistan is precondition for engagement with Taliban. Reiterating Beijing’s concerns Wang Yi said, “ETIM is an international terrorist organisation listed by the UNSC which poses a direct threat to China’s national security and territorial integrity. Cracking down on ETIM is the shared responsibility of the international community”.

Beijing exhorts that restraining ETIM is shared responsibility of international community. But fails to extend similar courtesy to India which has at the receiving end of Pakistan’s cross border terror and wary of resurgence of Taliban, which can turn Afghanistan into a breeding zone of terror outfits.

ETIM and its successor Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) has close connections with Osama bin Laden dating back to 2001. While a majority of Uighur militants have moved to Syria a recent UNSC report claims that around 500 of them are operating in the Badakshan province. With the evacuation of foreign troops from Afghanistan, the Uighur militants are planning to return to Afghanistan from Syria.

Wakhan corridor in Badakshan province of Afghanistan which is taken over by Taliban shares a 76km porous border with China opens into Xinjiang province. Re-emergence of Taliban has stirred concerns in China of a plausible infiltration of Uighur seperatists advocating for an independent East Turkestan (Xinjiang). Beijing has beefed up security at the Wakhan border, Afghan-Tajik post, Pakistan administered Kashmir deploying its personnel to forestall any infiltration.

China which has always condoned terror is beset by a strange paradox. Beijing finds a huge scope for expansion in the aftermath of huge void left by American withdrawal in the region. By virtue of iron clad friendship with masters of Taliban and massive economic investments across entire Central Asia, China emerged as the dominant power in the region. By virtue of its burgeoning clout, China seeks to penetrate Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan and Central Asia.

Terror attacks in Pakistan increased in the aftermath of Taliban resurgence. Nine Chinese dam engineered were killed in a terror attack in North Pakistan and a Chinese citizen was shot in Karachi recently.  These attacks have sparked concerns of safety and security of Chinese personnel and investments in the region.

Though Taliban has pledged to severe ties with other terror outfits, latest UN report and the aggressive offensive indicates otherwise. 12 designated terror outfits are reported to have joined Taliban war -LeT, JeM, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, Jamaat-ul-Arhar, Lashkar-e-Islam, and Al-Badr were spotted to be fighting alongside Taliban which is in gross violation of 2020 peace treaty.

For decades, China has tamed the mothership of terror, Pakistan for its strategic ambitions. With Taliban-dominated Afghanistan a plausible reality, China dangled carrots to woo it. Tensions due to terrorism would continue to exist. Given the decades of all-weather friendship, Beijing is hopeful of managing the Taliban. But Taliban is not Pakistan and a lot depends on whether Taliban could wrest its control over entire Afghanistan.

Amid China’s overt Taliban outreach, critics lament India has lost Afghanistan. On the contrary, over the past two decades, India has implemented developmental and capacity building projects in 34 provinces of Afghanistan and its nimble-footed efforts in Afghan rebuilding are well received. Aside the massive connectivity exercise through Chahbahar, India recently signed a MoU with Afghanistan for Shahtoot dam construction and called for a quadrilateral working group on the use of Chahbahar port with Uzbekistan, Iran and Afghanistan. Ramping up parleys with regional partners, India is in regular touch with all stakeholders of Afghanistan.

Given Taliban’s gains, strategists are predicting the fall of Afghanistan. But all is not over yet until everything is over. The game is still on.

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Xi’s trip to Tibet invariably ignited the “great-power competition”

 With no signs of breaking the prolonged stalemate over disengagement of troops and Beijing’s unabated nibbling of Bhutan territory to position threateningly close to the chicken neck of India, New Delhi deployed 50,000 additional troops across LAC.

Days later spewing nationalism, the Dragon sent out a fierce message to the World on the eve of CCP Centenary celebrations. Hitting out at the adversaries, President Xi at centenary CCP speech warned, any attempts to subjugate the country would result in “heads bashed bloody against a Great Wall of Steel”. The remark which didn’t figure in the Chinese government’s softened English translation resurfaced in the actual translation exposing the true intentions of China.

Arguably, China which pitched for delinking the border issues with the bilateral ties with India officials had no qualms in sending its uncompromising stance on issues of national interest to the World and expects New Delhi to continue with business as usual.

China’s stealthy intrusion across the LAC when India was distracted by the Covid lockdown hasn’t gone down well with India. The prolonged standoff, 15 months long has turned LAC into a hot zone. Refusing to restore status quo ante, planning to push LAC west, Beijing began amassing troops and erecting shelters in contravention to mutual agreements. Eruption of violence has only exacerbated tensions and deepened mistrust. Consequently, Tibet became the focus area for China.

A month into the standoff, China issued third White paper on Tibet commemorating the 71^st year of signing of 17-point agreement between Lhasa and Beijing. The Whitepaper had important aspects- firstly, having tight- leash on the succession process of the Dalai Lama and sinicizing of Tibetan Buddhism. The third unspoken aspect was based on Xi’s observation at the National People’s Congress in 2013, “to govern the country well we must first govern the frontiers well, and to govern the frontiers well we must first ensure stability in Tibet”.

Accordingly, Beijing gave renewed push to its Border Villages Program, akin to salami slicing of South China Sea (SCS), where civilian settlements are built along disputed border to reinforce its claims. These villages besides serving as eyes and ears for the PLA would alter the demography of the region. Satellite images spotted one such village close to Arunachal border, the region which China calls as Southern Tibet.

Analysts later alluded that China is on a village building spree along the strategic borders with Nepal, Bhutan and India. Taking objection to India’s rapid infrastructure development projects along the LAC, China has ramped up connectivity to Tibetan plateau.

With a focus on Tibet at the 7^th Tibetan Forum, held on August 29^th, 2020 Beijing called for immediate fortification the roof of the World into a fortress. In a bid to safeguard the border and facilitate delivery of strategic goods during crises, China expedited border infrastructure connectivity plans. Accordingly, China unveiled a bullet train connecting the capital Lhasa to Nyingchi, 17 km from Arunachal Pradesh border days ahead to CCP centenary.

Galwan incident and India’s occupation of strategic Kailash Heights exemplified the combat prowess of Indian Army and left an indelible mark on PLA.  Special Frontier Force (SFF), a regiment comprising majorly of Tibetan commandos of Indian Army meticulously executed this operation.  While Chinese conscripts struggled to acclimatize and guard the icy peaks along the LAC, influenced by the sturdiness of Tibetans in exile serving the Indian Army, China initiated induction of Tibetans into PLA and Special Tibetan Army unit (STAU). Reportedly coercive drives are underway making its mandatory for each family to send at least one person for recruitment especially in Ngari prefecture.

The massive induction is unlikely to yield any results relationship between the Hans and Tibetans is marred by trust deficit.  Besides a statement by Dalai Lama extending support to India can force Tibetans to desert PLA.

Gearing up to take on India, China is slowly converting the temporary structures into permanent positions and upgrading the airbases along the Indo-Tibetan border. Fighter and bombers are now moved to the airbases in Tibet-Hotan, Kashgar, Gargunsa, Lhasa-Gonggar and Shigatse. Needless to say, all these developments, leave no iota of doubt that China is no mood for de-escalation.

Annexing Tibet, China has become India’s neighbour. Beijing started using Tibet as launch pad for its territorial incursions. The prolonged 15-month long standoff has tested India’s “strategic patience”. With Beijing relentlessly needling India’s affairs through Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Maldives, India which has sheltered the Dalai Lama for over 60 years shedding diffidence played the Tibet card. Tibet is at the heart of India China dispute. PM Modi for the first time since 2014, greeted Dalai Lama on his birthday on July 6^th and tweeted about his telephonic conversation.

Since 2008 there has been slight shift in India’s Tibet policy. In 2014, Modi invited Head of Central Tibetan Administration (CTA), Lobsang Sangay to his inauguration and allowed the Dalai Lama to visit Tawang in 2017 and Sangay to unfurl Tibetan flag at Pangong Tso. Post-Doklam, adhering to Wuhan Consensus, Modi softened India’s stand and asked officials to avoid participating in events on the eve of 60 years of Dalai Lama’s arrival in India. But the current stand-off frayed the ties. 

Modi’s tweet has been India’s way of reminding China of its support to the Dalai Lama and his right to appoint a successor. Principle of reincarnation and Dalai Lama succession are of immense importance to China. Beijing is making aggressive moves to scuttle the process and appoint its lackey as the 15^th Dalai Lama to crush the Tibetan resistance for eternity.

As a message to China, India allowed Tibetans to celebrate the Dalai Lama birthday this year in the areas adjoining LAC, U-bend of Indus River and Ladakh. In response to these festivities, the PLA soldiers posted close to LAC displayed a red banner protesting the event.

Ever since animosities between China and the US escalated, America has changed its position towards Tibet. In November 2020, CTA head Lobsang was invited to the White House and in December 2020, US passed Tibetan Policy and Support Act stating that Dalai Lama is the final authority on his own reincarnation and succession and mooted establishment of US consulate at Lhasa. Exercising firm control, China continues to restrict the movement of foreign in Tibet. Expressing serious concerns over this legislation, US imposed restrictions on Chinese visitors to America under the “reciprocal act of 2018”. Trump administration’s support to Tibetan cause and the new act has riled up China.

Tibet and India shared strong cultural, religious and trade links and after its invasion in 1959, by offering refuge to the 14^th Dalai Lama and 17^th Karmapa, India emerged the centre of Tibetan Buddhism. India’s close links with Tibet is cause of heartburn for China which believes that New Delhi can weaken its hold on Tibet. In 1965, China renamed Tibet as Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) and India recognized TAR as part of China in 2003. The promise of autonomy was a myth. On the contrary, to consolidate its power, China cracked down on any kind of revolt with heavy hand.

After Mao’s death, China attempted to make some amends to its Tibetan policy and initiated negotiations. Between 2002 to 2010 the Dalai Lama representatives and China’s United Work Front Department held ten rounds of talks with a clause that everything except independence is negotiable. But the talks collapsed and remained suspended.

China aspired to win over Tibet through development and political re-education. Ushering Socialism in this region, Beijing wanted to sinicise the Tibetan Buddhism. Believing that development would bring the region closer to mainland, Beijing launched the Western Development Campaign building new factories, roads, oil pipelines and necessary infrastructure. Under the garb of poverty alleviation China voraciously exploited the mineral wealth of the region and diverted waters from this water fount by building 11 dams and caused irreparable environmental degradation.

China’s development agenda for Tibet failed to cut ice. Coinciding with Beijing Olympics 2008, Tibetans revolted against the mainland. As a mark of support widespread protests for autonomy were carried out in Tibet, India, Nepal. In the next couple of years hundreds of Tibetans monks performed self-immolation opposing China’s control.

Though this uprising and China’s efforts to deracinate Tibetans failed to garner much attention as the Uighur detentions, post Tibetan revolt, China has hardened its stance. Under the Chairmanship of Xi, China denounced the Middle Way approach of Dalai Lama deemed it as splittism. Beijing categorically warned that the Dalai Lama should abandon the stance of independence and publicly announce that “Tibet has been integral part of China since antiquity”.

As a frontier region, Tibet is at the heart of China’s expansionist tool kit. Tibetan security is extremely pivotal for China’s India policy. Hence, signalling strong disapproval to Modi’s telephonic conversation with Dalai Lama, Xi visited Nyinchi in Tibet bordering Arunachal Pradesh on July 21-22. The last Chinese President to visit Tibet was Jiang Zemin in 1990. Xi last visited Tibet as vice-president a decade ago.

This visit which remained a state secret until video appeared on the social media Weibo, had glimpses of Xi receiving a warm welcome in Tibet. Accompanied by Zhou Youxia, vice-chairman of Central Military Commission and in charge of the peripheral regions, Claude Arpi writes Xi interacted with military commanders and soldiers stationed in Tibet. Xi visited the Nying River Bridge in Yarlung Tsangpo River Basin (Brahmaputra in India) and Nyang River its tributary. In November 2020, China announced the construction of dams along the Yarlung River to use the waters as a strategic weapon against India.

The downstream North Eastern region of India is extremely vulnerable to flooding from overflows of Yarlung river. Much against the warnings of building series of hydroelectric dams in this earthquake prone region which can put entire region in risk and cause environmental degradation China is going ahead with this project to threaten India.

During his visit, Xi was seen interacting with locals in Shaliuhe township, Bakhor, Bayi headquarters of security forces and intentionally rode back to Lhasa in the recently unveiled train to Nyngchi. Xi’s visit to the region is orchestrated demonstrate Tibetan acceptability of Han rule and to assert China’s complete control over the region.

Undoubtedly, Xi’s visit coming days after Modi’s telephone call to Dalai Lama and ahead of the US deputy secretary of state Wendy Sherman’s visit to Tianjin for talks is an overt warning to India and the US.

Above all, Xi’s Nyngchi visit unequivocally demonstrated China’s hardened stance and a default prolonged stalemate in Indo-China talks over restoration of status quo ante. Perhaps, it might also be China’s way of hinting India of opening yet another front along the Arunachal border. Intending to put India in place, China stealthily intruded LAC. But shocked by India’s vigorous military response quick force deployment, China quickly ramped up defences and unwittingly entered a point of no return where an attempt to pull back will be deemed timorous.

With his pompous border visit, Xi has provoked India and foreclosed all attempts to backdown. By dictating terms and outlining demands for engagement at Tianjin, China has inexorably miffed US. Paying back in its own coin, US Secretary for State, Anthony Blinken on his India visit, met the representative of CTA, Ngodup Dongchung.

China for long rued Indo-US strategic convergence. Xi’s Tibet trip and antagonistic posturing besides exemplifying its muscular revisionism has invariably ignited the “great-power competition” and paving way for deepening of Indo-US partnership and strategic cooperation.

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A Sneak Peek into EAM Jaishankar’s Globetrotting: Changing Indian Foreign Policy Contour

Amid the widespread lament of India missing the bus in the context of Taliban surge and its consequent repercussions on Indian interests, the proactive diplomatic outreach spear-headed by EAM Jaishankar should offer a fresh glimpse into India’s changing foreign policy contours.

Loomed by rising global instabilities, strident US-China rivalry, plausible meltdown in Afghanistan, the palpable fear of return to a bipolar world and eventual Cold war scenario, India has intensified diplomatic parleys with various regional actors. Devastating pandemic exposed the failures of multilateralism and the assertive territorial expansionism of China has underscored the need for a collectivism and new partnerships for regional peace and stability.

Championing a free and open Indo-Pacific and a multipolar World, EAM Jaishankar embarked on a massive outreach spree. Terming Wuhan virus pandemic as a “shared problem” and “global crisis”, India generously supplied medicines, assistance and Vaccines to various countries. Reciprocally, when India was overwhelmed by second wave of the pandemic, countries pitched in to offer help. India gracefully accepted the foreign assistance as a part of “mutual assistance framework”.

In pursuit of securing Indian interests, especially energy security, EAM on his visit to Kuwait renewed energy cooperation. Kuwait is the seventh largest crude oil supplier of India after US replaced it from sixth position in 2015. In February Kuwait Petroleum Corp (KPC) in talks with India and Japan announced that its is likely to shorten annual supplies to nine months to meet the demands from its new refinery. This came in the backdrop of Iraq, the largest oil supplies announcing supply cuts to India as per the quota limits set by OPEC.

During Kuwaiti Foreign Minister’s visit to India in March, aside discussing the energy, countries agreed to establish Joint Ministerial Commission (JMC) to steer the relationship2. Catering to Kuwait’s Covid emergency, India rushed a medical team, emergency food supplies and supplied Covishield vaccines as well. In turn, when India battled tragic covid wave, Kuwait ensured reliable supply of liquid medical oxygen by establishing a Sea Bridge. EAM on his Kuwait visit on the eve of 60 years of diplomatic ties carried a personal letter of PM Modi to the Emir. He laid firm ground for new JMC that envisaged cooperation in hydrocarbons, manpower, mobility, health care, trade & investments, defence & security, finalized and signed a MoU bringing the Indian domestic workers under legal framework.

Reports of China’s plans to establish a second military base in Africa at Bagomoya in Tanzania, the first one being Djibouti in 2017 propelled global powers- US, Japan and Russia to expand foot print in Africa. With a focus on stability and security in the Western Indian Ocean under the ambit of Indo-Pacific policy, keen on expanding bilateral cooperation with strategic partner, Kenya EAM made a three-day visit. Kenya is a key stakeholder in determining the geopolitics of Western Indian Ocean.

Co-Chairing 3rd, India-Kenya Joint Commission Meeting, recognizing Kenya’s Big Four Agenda on Manufacturing, Affordable Housing, Food Security and Health, EAM underlined India’s interest to partner in these areas. He reiterated India’s commitment to South-South Cooperation ahead of India-Africa Forum Summit-IV this year.

Enroute his two-country visit and on his way back home, EAM made a stopover at Doha. During his two visits to Qatar in a week, EAM met the NSA and Foreign Minister of Qatar. The stopover is considered significant since Doha has been the venue for peace talks between the Afghan government and Taliban. Expedited pullback of American troops and consequent Taliban’s territorial gains have huge implications on immediate neighbourhood and rightly so, the timing of visit triggered speculations of India opening communication channels with Taliban.

Without dropping too many hits, MEA announced that India is in contact with various stakeholders in Afghanistan and added that EAM and his Qatari counterpart discussed Covid support, global and regional security issues and bilateral cooperation3. It is no secret that Qatar enjoys Taliban’s confidence and Doha-based Shura is known to be calling shots in Kabul. Given the close links, EAM’s act of touching base has great strategic significance.

Peace in Afghanistan is crucial to regional stability. Resurgence of Taliban akin to 1990s besides increasing the strategic depth of Pakistan can have a direct impact on J&K and India’s investments worth $3billion in the country. Against the criticisms of India being late in the gate, exploring the old convergences India renewed discussions with Iran and Russia. EAM travelled to both countries which have sizeable influence over Taliban. Iran sheltered Osama bin Laden to build connections with Pashtun leadership and Pakistan facilitated Russia’s connection with Taliban.

Carrying the personal message of PM Modi, EAM sought private audience with the newly elected Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. He held long drawn conversations with counterpart Javad Jaraf and thanked him for holding two day long The Intra-Afghan Dialogue attended by Taliban delegation led by Sher Mohammed Abbas Stanekzai and Afghan Vice President Yunus Qanuni. Taliban delegation has released a six-point joint statement. Expectedly, though the talks failed to make any breakthrough, India agreed with Iran that intra-Afghan talks is the only way forward for peace in Afghanistan.

EAM attempted to resurrect the India-Iran-Russia triangle that backed Northern Alliance. While much is being read into EAM’s Tehran visit on his way to Moscow, back in September 2020 as well, EAM made a pitstop at Iran while traveling to Russia. Clearly, the focus of the visit has been Afghanistan. Taliban’s blistering attacks and rapid gains in the aftermath of US troop pull back generated fresh fears in Moscow for the Central Asian countries share porous borders with Afghanistan.

To allay Russian fears and assure that they wouldn’t violate the borders of Central Asian countries and guarantee security of their foreign personnel and embassies, Taliban delegation met Russian envoy Zamir Kubulov. Around the same time, EAM met Russian envoy Sergei Lavrov to prepare ground for Indo-Russian annual summit. He discussed inter regional cooperation particularly, Russian Far East, connectivity aspects, North-South Corridor, Chennai-Vladivostok Eastern Maritime Corridor, Afghanistan, Iran, Syria and Libya.

Both countries affirmed their commitment to an independent, sovereign, united and democratic Afghanistan and believed that they should work together. Reluctant to take any military action, Russia wanted America to ensure the implementation of peace deal and believed that Afghan government isn’t doing enough.

Russia, a former superpower, reliant on its hydrocarbon and defence exports demonstrates an undiminished willingness to deploy military. Be it military action in 2008 against Georgia or annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its entry into Middle East through Syrian intervention and private militia in Libyan civilian war following America’s inconsistent policies Russia wants to play the great power game.

Deepening of Russia’s ties with China, announcement of renewal of Friendship treaty on the eve of CCP centenary, the emergence of the Indo-Pacific concept and the Quad have laid out bare the differing perspectives of India and Russia. Aside the Afghanistan issue, drawn towards China due to the West’s sanctions, Russia insisted on an Asia-Pacific concept. Seeking to address teething misunderstandings, delivering his speech on “India-Russia ties in a changing world” at Primakov Institute of World Economy EAM has presented India’s perspectives reiterating- “the undeniable reality of exceptional resilience of our ties is surely phenomenon worth analyzing”.

Stating that “the core of our contemporary relationship is the embrace of multi-polarity…. And that it rests on the foundation of a more democratic and diverse international order, one that is committed to sovereign equality of all states”, expressed strong disapproval of Chinese expansionism and upmanship, saying, “logically that a multi-polar world must have a multi-polar Asia is an essential constituent”.

Addressing Russian concerns of India’s growing proximity with the US, EAM explained the rationale of Indo-Pacific and suggested a way forward- “a world of convergence that the multi-polar and re-balanced international order has created will inevitably be different from the one what we were used to before. Quite obviously, it will be less structured and more fluid, leaving open the possibility of differences even among those who are together. The inclination would be to look at pragmatic and result-oriented cooperation on defined issues”.

Elucidating India’s choices, he said, “the operating principle of multi-polar world is the legitimate pursuit of flexibility without seeking exclusivity. After all, the latter is antithetical to the very logic of multi-polarity” and referred to New Delhi’s Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative for better understanding of India’s vision for Indo-Pacific.

Evincing strong interest to work together for a stable and diverse and international world order, Jaishankar, renewed ties with Russia. Adding a new dimension to the special and privileged strategic partnership, countries agreed to hold 2+2 Dialogue of Foreign and Defence Ministers.

EAM travelled to Georgia from Moscow before returning home. This evoked caustic responses with critics terming it as India’s reply to Sergei Lavrov’s attempted hyphenation of New Delhi with Islamabad. But seasoned diplomats quickly debunked it, saying Indo-Russian relations are beyond this kind of symbolism. The last Indian EAM to visit Georgia was Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 1978. Jaishankar handed over the relics of Queen St. Ketevan and rejuvenated the strong historical connect.

At the Dushanbe SCO foreign ministers meet EAM backed Afghan-led and Afghan-owned solution and pitched for connectivity with Afghanistan via Chabahar port at Central and South Asia: Regional Connectivity, Challenges and Opportunities conference in Uzbekistan.

Meeting the Afghan President Ashraf Ghani along the sidelines of the Connectivity conference, EAM assured him of India’s support for peace, stability and development in Afghanistan. Opening communication channels with various stakeholders of Afghanistan, India is resolutely working towards a peaceful solution.

After the Indo-EU summit, India revved up engagement with European countries. Unveiling a new chapter of ingenious diplomacy, EAM on his visit to Greece, the first by an Indian Foreign Minister in 18 years, started working towards establishing strategic partnership. India’s engagement with the European country thus far have been broadly cultural.

With the traditional Greco-Turkish rivalry spilling into the East Mediterranean Sea, Greece is keen on supporting India which is at odds with Pakistan, a close ally of Turkey. Similarly, the idea of using Greece to deal with Turkey is not lost on India. Greece served as launch pad for China to expand its global economic influence after Cosco obtained major stakes in Piraeus port, a strategic location between both Asian and European countries.

Post Covid even as Greece welcomed investments from China, it has aligned with India’s Free Indo-Pacific and rules-based order, signed the International Solar Alliance. India and Greece hold similar views in terms respect for territorial integrity, sovereignty and recognized threat from terrorism and radicalism.

Revisionist and aggressive policies of Turkey are posing threat to Greece. To counter the burgeoning hostile Turkey-Qatar alliance, Greece has developed strategic partnership with UAE. Given India’s strong strategic ties with UAE, Greece FM on his visit to Delhi proposed India-UAE-Greece trilateral. UAE and Greece are presenting their candidacy for UNSC non-permanent seat, a position India holds currently for 2024 and 2025. Greece needs India’s backing and in turn, Athens pledged to serve as bridge between New Delhi and EU.

Covid pandemic has inadvertently triggered a pushback against China. Shifting gears, Italy, the first G-7 nation to join BRI, openly criticized Beijing’s practices as “unfair” and called on EU to be bold in confronting China. Seeking to enter the Indo-Pacific geography, Italy evinced interest to enter into a trilateral partnership with India and Japan on the eve of EAM’s visit to Rome. Clearly, Europe’s embrace of Indo-Pacific underscores the rising recognition of the geopolitical significance of the region.

Wary of challenges posed by China’s aggressive policies, nations are now eager to join purpose-oriented partnerships. Owing to India’s growing centrality in the Indo-Pacific architecture and its strong affirmation to democratic, diverse and rules-based order, nations are seeking to partner with India.

Bogged down by reluctance and incongruent approaches, despite its strategic geographic location, historical and cultural connect with various nations, India failed to claim its position at high table. Through coordinated responses, proactive outreach and a strategically clear foreign policy India has coveted the responsible power status. Consequently, countries which share similar interests and values and facing similar challenges are seeking to partner with India.

The new streak of assertiveness and dynamism displayed by India in expanding horizons attests that Indian diplomacy has certainly come off the age.

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The Dangerous Predicament of Disruptive Politics

Debate in World’s largest democracy is slowly replaced by disruption. The Parliament, a hallowed platform for critical and constructive debate is turning into an arena of disruption. Revered as a towering encomium of structured debates that laid foundations for the country, the Parliament has now turned into a platform for hooliganism.

Hailed as conglomeration of greatest minds committed for the welfare of the country, the debates in Parliament used to be the trusted source for analysing the nitty-gritties of any proposed legislations from the houses of representatives. But over the years the quality of such rational thinking and the civilised behaviour expected of an iconic legislative body has shrunk.

Instead of respectable debates, the Parliament has become podium for heckling, choicest weapon for settling political scores. Devoid of decency and sane demeanour, besides setting the bad precedent the planned Parliamentary session is turning into notorious spectre of disruptive politics.

Ever since its ascent into power in 2014, the Modi government is accused of being “intolerant, fascist and vicious” by the opposition. But the unabated disruptive politicking ahead of every consecutive parliamentary session has left the common man thinking as who is the right fit for the above sobriquets.

Even before a parliamentary session could kick-in the entire ecosystem is set into motion to overwhelm the political realm with some conspiracy theory or the other. Leaving no space for debate, the media houses with its extensive reach are set into an overdrive of playing the role of an investigator, prosecutor as well as jury.

Interestingly, this cyclical repetition or in fact over use of this new trend of disruption is becoming more predictive. Bereft of productive discussions on issues of development, growth, welfare and progress the vicious underbelly of an intolerance towards the current dispensation is becoming more obvious now.

Despite the best efforts of the opposition to give these conspiracies hewn mostly in foreign countries a different name through its propaganda machinery, the ugly face of its origins and diabolical intentions are getting unravelled. The series of the tool kits designed to create chaos and generate disaffection towards the dispensation have only accentuated the inimical designs of the opposition.

Deconstruction of the unravelled toolkits in recent times has neatly exposed the links between the Indian political parties and their foreign offshore agencies. Rapid busting of a couple of tool kits in tandem in the recent past and their consequent attempts to create unrest in the country has created a doubt in common man about the new kind of politicking employed by the opposition. Bordering on doubt and distrust, the overuse of the foreign agencies for domestic politics has now bolstered the theory of plausible foreign conspiracies at play is taking seed in Indian minds.

Rightly so, just a day ahead of the Monsoon Session of the Parliament, the opposition raked up a spying row and accused government of hacking using the Israeli Pegasus spyware and sought a probe. The Wire first carried out a report stating that 40 Indian journalists are on hacking list of an unidentified agency using the Israeli spyware Pegasus. The list includes journalists at the Hindustan Times, The Hindu, The Wire, The Indian Express, News18, India Today etc.

Indeed, the basis of the report is that a consortium, Forbidden Stories, a non-profit Paris-based journalism and Amnesty International has access to a list of phone numbers living in countries believed to be clients of NSO group, an Israeli firm known for its spyware. These agencies have shared this info to some 15 international agencies. Forbidden Stories claims to have overseen the Pegasus report.

IT Minister Ashwin Vaishnaw on the floor of the Parliament reiterated, “In India there is a well-established procedure through which lawful interception of electronic communication is carried out for the purpose of national security, particularly on the occurrence of any public emergency or in the interest of public safety, by agencies at the centre and states. The request for this lawful interception of electronic communication is made as per relevant rules under the provisions of section 5(2) of Indian Telegraph Act, 1885 and section 69 of the Informational Technology Act, 2000. The procedure therefore ensures that any interception or monitoring of any information is done as per due process of law. The framework and institutions have withstood the test of time”.

He also debunked the charges of opposition by quoting the statement issued by NSO, the company which owns the spyware that the leaked data (released/disseminated) by HLR Lookup services, - “(is)openly available to anyone, anywhere and anytime and are commonly used by governmental agencies as well as by private companies worldwide. It is also beyond dispute that that data has nothing to do with surveillance or with NSO, so there can be no factual basis to suggest that a use of data somehow equates to surveillance”.

Moreover, the Wire Report, which has been the basis for opposition’s tirade against government has stated- “the presence of a number in the database indicates its likely selection as a target for surveillance but whether a phone was actually hacked and infected can only be established through forensic examination of the device”.

Meanwhile, a second tranche of list reported by The Wire included the names of Rahul Gandhi, Prashant Kishore, Abhishek Banerjee, Ashwin Vaishnaw, Prahlad Singh Patel (minister in Modi cabinet), Pravin Tagodia, staffer of former CJI Ranjan Gogoi and 300 others. Instructively, the opposition intensified its attack on government accusing it of using the Pegasus spyware to suppress dissent.

In the run up to 2019 Lok Sabha elections, opposition has stalled the Parliament on similar charges blaming the government of hacking anti-establishment leaders using Pegasus on Whatsapp. But Supreme Court categorically dismissed all these fictitious claims which had no factual basis. Even all the political parties accepted SC’s ruling. A repeat of similar episode before the onset of a new Parliamentary session can’t be a sheer coincidence.

Having just recovered from a Tsunami of Covid wave that has put country’s meagre resources under severe strain, it is duty of government and the elected leaders to evolve a framework to avert another Covid wave and ensure pandemic preparedness. Instead, the opposition has resorted to a ludicrous game plan of obstructing the functioning of the Parliament on the charges of infringement of right to privacy and the concomitant threat to democracy.

Seriously the charges of spying can’t be ignored.  The agencies have advised affected persons to submit their devices believed to be hacked for forensic examination to factually establish the claims. But instead of relying on the logical scientific investigation that can lend credence to their claims the opposition has resorting to disruption.

On the opening day of the session, Opposition through relentless sloganeering heckled the Prime Minister and interrupted the ‘customary’ introduction of new ministers of Cabinet. Similar ruckus was witnessed in both the Houses forcing an adjournment. According to reports, government proposed to discuss 31 bills during the 19-day long session.

Pegasus spying has snowballed into a massive row with political parties insisting on thorough investigation and resignation of Home Minister Amit Shah. Amid ruckus, both the houses of Parliament are adjourned till Thursday.

The spectacle of disruptive politicking is long past its sell by date now. Aspirational Indians are seeking solutions to put the country back on economic trajectory. By failing to contest an orchestrated propaganda to malign Indian institutions and democracy by the Western agencies especially since the turn of the year all for their hate for a single man, opposition has been complicit in bad mouthing of India.

Parliament session has been an opportunity to assert their commitment to nation. But instead of pulling up the government for glaring lacunae, the inconsistencies in delivery and policies that compounded the Covid crisis, by disapproving a debate, they have abdicated their duties as people’s representatives. They have undermined the Parliamentary Democracy.

While the charges of government posing threat to democracy by throttling dissent remains to be established, by hampering the functioning of the Parliament the opposition has certainly brought the Indian democracy to a dangerous precipice.

In their obsession to stay relevant in the political realm through disruption, the political parties are furthering their descent into abyss of irrelevance.

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Solution to Afghan peace lies with Pakistan

 Situation in Afghanistan is deteriorating rapidly. Taliban 2.0 has adopted the new strategy of taking over the border districts of land-locked Afghanistan and preparing to encircle capital Kabul to consolidate its dominance and leverage the gains for negotiating with Afghan government. Taliban advanced into North East region a traditional stronghold of the anti-Taliban forces last fortnight. In absence of stiff resistance from the Afghan forces and border guards, Taliban took over the Tajik-Afghan border post. Similarly, Taliban marched through Badghis province and gained control over the Uzbek-Afghan border, felling Herat, Taliban is now manning the Iran-Afghan border seizing the border area of Islam Qala.

Bound by a secret pact with America to protect the Western bases for a year from any attacks which expired on May 1^st, Taliban renewed its attacks on the Afghan forces henceforth. Their advance gained much pace and momentum after America expedited its withdrawal. Taliban doubled its gains and as per reports, it currently controls more than 85% of the territory. Alarmingly unlike in the past, Afghan forces are unable to recapture the lost provinces.

The latest to fall now is the Southern district of Spin Boldak and Taliban seized control of a major crossing with Pakistan.  Afghan flags at The Friendship gate in Chaman are now replaced by White Flag with Koranic verses of Taliban. With this the second largest port of Afghanistan, Kandahar is under the control of Taliban. By laying seize to important trade crossings in Kunduz and Farah provinces as well in the recent past, Taliban has deprived the Afghanistan of key sources of revenue and filling its coffers.

With thousands of refugees waiting at the Spin Boldok-Chaman crossing to enter Pakistan, the latter has closed its borders. Also, this crossing provides direct access to Balochistan province in Pakistan which is home to Taliban leadership for decades. By laying seize to this key arterial commercial line between Kandahar and Pakistan ports, Taliban have a proposed a three-month ceasefire in exchange for release of 7000 prisoners held by Afghan government.

Clearly, the situation is turning from bad to worse and the regional powers, most of them the members and observers of SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) have assembled at Dushanbe, Tajikistan. Given the gravity of the deteriorating security in Afghanistan, SCO has convened the SCO-Afghan Contact Group meeting, a formal contact body originally created in 2005 to address the security challenges in Afghan and its spill over effects into Central Asia.

Afghan Taliban has ethic linkages with terrorist groups like -Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) and Hizb-u-Tehrir (HUT) which attempted to topple the regimes in Central Asia and wanted to establish a Muslim caliphate. Taliban has close links with LeT, JeM, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and others. A resurgence of Taliban is bound to strengthen other terrorist groups and this will have direct bearing on the peace and stability of Central Asia and India.

At the 20^th SCO Foreign Ministers Meeting which concluded on July 14^th the members which include- China, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, India and Pakistan issued a joint statement which read- “We strongly call on all sides involved in the conflict in Afghanistan to abstain from using force or taking action that may lead to destabilisation and unpredictable consequences in the areas of Afghanistan’s borders with SCO member states”. SCO Observer States Afghanistan, Iran, Belarus, Mongolia also attended the meet.

Members expressed keenness to cooperate with Afghanistan to deal with extremism, terrorism and drug trade. They confirmed readiness to “expand cooperation in spheres of politics, security, economic and humanitarian cooperation”. The document further states, “the SCO member states reaffirm their respect for sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of Afghanistan”¹ and agreed in principle to Afghan-led and Afghan-owned reconciliation process.

Having principally agreed to the “Afghan-led and Afghan-owned” process, even before the ink of the Joint statement could dry, Pakistan’s air force has warned the Afghan government to refrain all its efforts to dislodge Taliban from the Spin Boldak area. Afghan Vice President Amrullah Saleh tweeted. This development has brought Afghanistan and Pakistan to the brink of the war and laid out bare Pakistan’s umbilical connect with Taliban.

Unprecedented escalation tensions along the Af-Pak border in the aftermath of the SCO Foreign Ministers Summit, has glaring exposed the double-standards and hypocrisy of Pakistan and China. SCO has come into existence in 2001 to mitigate the challenges of “terrorism, extremism and drug trafficking” emanating from Afghanistan and posing threat to the Central Asia.

With a focus on regional stability, SCO has created Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) in 2002 at Tashkent. Designating terrorism as a major security challenge, SCO resolved to fight this menace. and pledged to fight the scourge of terror in all forms and manifestations.

For decades, Pakistan has been using terrorism as a strategic weapon to pursue its foreign policy goals. The over four decades of unremitting war in Afghanistan and the incessant cross-border terror attacks on India are a living testimony to Pakistan’s terror patronship. With American finances, Pakistan has built a formidable jihadi machinery and unleashed it in the region whose tremors are felt even in Eurasia.

For reasons best known to America, despite knowing the double-game of Pakistan, it refused to designate the country as the fountainhead of terror. Similarly, by condoning Pakistan’ terror acts and shielding it from international censure on global platforms, China has done what America did to Pakistan. 

China welcomed Pakistan into SCO an organisation founded to fight terrorism along with India to strengthen its clout. Mocking America’s “great war on terror”, China has offered to mediate Afghanistan peace process. Partnering with mothership of terror, Beijing is bound to hit the same roadblock as America and it is unlikely that China can find a lasting solution for Afghanistan in specific and mitigate the challenges posed by threat to the region in general.  

Pakistan is the real threat. It is time countries force Islamabad to dismantle its terror ecosystem else all major powers and regional powers would keep reinventing the wheel without any success. For decades Pakistan has been waging a proxy war in Afghanistan. By failing to sanction Pakistan, countries have been reigniting episodes of “forever war”.

Pakistan pulls the strings of Afghan Taliban and controls the peace process. Looking elsewhere would be futile. Pakistan has been the primary exporter of terror. Until the country is dried of finances and decoupled from the World through sanctions, peace is a mirage.

Mincing no words, at the SCO Foreign Ministers Meet Jaishankar reiterated, “Combatting terrorism and extremism is the key purpose of SCO. Must stop terror financing and digital facilitation”

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US troop withdrawal accentuates Afghanistan’s imminent collapse

 Quick paced events in Afghanistan especially in the last fortnight has accentuated concerns of the state slipping into chaos sooner than later. Spiralling attacks, burgeoning civilian deaths, unabated violence together with expedited troop drawdown by the US has implacably exacerbated the inimical collapse of Afghan state sending shock waves to countries in the immediate neighbourhood.

Amid surging Taliban attacks, on June 28^th Indian Embassy has issued security advisory to all Indian nationals in Afghanistan to avoid non-essential movements and exercise strict vigilance and caution at work place. India is closely monitoring to bring its citizens from the war-ravaged Afghanistan.

In mid-April Biden announced complete troop withdrawal by September 11^th, setting in motion accelerated withdrawal, the US on June 2^nd has vacated the famed epicentre of their operations for 20 years, the Bagaram airbase in the thick of the night without even informing the in charge Afghan commander. Minutes after the US troops vacated the base, electricity was shut down, plunging the area into darkness. Within minutes the place was ransacked and rummaged to pick up over 3.5 million items including small weapons by insurgent elements. Two hours after they left, Afghan forces who learnt about their departure rued about the way US troops left the place.

The US withdrawal heralded on the lines Emergency Action Plan for embassy has expectedly raised many concerns of an imminent Civil war threat in Afghanistan. In fact, the US state department has placed embassy under “ordered departure” in April and ever since non-essential staff were sent away. Evacuation of Afghan interpreters who face death threats is under urgent consideration. The scheduled recall of troops is much ahead of the schedule now.

As of now, more than 90% of draw down is complete. 650 US troops are stationed in Afghan currently to safeguard American Embassy in Kabul and Kabul International Airport. US and Turkey have reached an agreement over the security of airport, the most pivotal conduit for access to Afghanistan. President Erdogan sought diplomatic and financial support to protect airport and wanted Pakistan and Hungary to be involved in the mission.

Germany, Italy and UK have reported full withdrawal of contingents and Australia has closed its consulate in Afghanistan. Foreign evacuation and surge in Taliban offensive portend Afghanistan’s descent to abyss.  

Taliban’s steady takeover of new areas is quite unnerving. On June 22^nd, Taliban took over the American built- Sher Khan Bandar crossing north of Kunduz city after 150 border guards and Afghan troops deserted the check posts and fled to Tajikistan. On humanitarian ground, Tajikistan offered allowed the trespassers. Over 1000 troops have reportedly surrendered. Interestingly, instead of closing the Sher-Khan Bandar complex, Taliban has reached out to Tajik businessmen and began operating it. The customs revenue of $13,000 annually is now pocketed by Taliban¹.

Sher-Khan Bandar complex, as testimony of US 20-year long stay in the country includes a customs compound and a steel bridge across the Panj river that runs between Afghanistan and Tajikistan. Built in 2007, the $40 million project has been an effort to resurrect what is believed to be an ancient silk road route.

Previously, Tajikistan supported the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance led by Tajik commander Ahmad Shah Massoud.  In absence of stiff resistance from these groups, the regions are now controlled by Taliban. Unlike Tajikistan, Uzbekistan hasn’t allowed the fleeing Afghan military into their territory. The border crossing is controlled by Afghan government. With Sher-Khan complex out of bounds to Afghan government are rerouting Tajik bound transit via Uzbekistan.

Emboldened by the rapid withdrawal of US troops, Taliban has intensified its offensive and made fresh gains. More than one-third of districts have fell without even a fight and demoralised soldiers began to either flee or surrender. An intelligence assessment now predicts that Afghan government would collapse in no less than six months of American pull out.

According to FDD’s Long War Journal², baring the Fayzabad district, nearly all the provinces including the Wakhan corridor is now controlled by Taliban. Wakhan Corridor has been untouched by Taliban. But now the region which shares a 76km border with China is held by Taliban. Residents in the northern regions are complaining of a return of a Taliban regime with dictums of women not allowed to move alone without male escort and men ordained to grow beard slowly making way.

Fearing an imminent Taliban resurgence, thousands of Afghans are fleeing the country. Northern regions have been strong bastions of anti-Taliban forces and multi-ethnic groups who aided US-led invasion. But now these regions are crumbling like dominos. Taliban are now in control of the main border crossing with Tajikistan and have now slowly taken over the trade agreement between Afghan state and Tajikistan. They are in control of Doshi, the main road connecting the northern areas to Kabul. These areas remained unconquered even as the Taliban occupied 90% of the country in 1990s. Taliban dominated the South and Eastern regions of Afghan state. But now the astounding pace of Taliban takeover is creating flutter in the region.

Though analysts contend that Taliban haven’t attacked Kabul and not everything is lost. Unlike in the past, Taliban are advancing into strategic border districts and closing in on Kabul. They reportedly stormed into the capital of north eastern province of Badghis which shares borders with Turkmenistan. Taliban took control of provincial office of National Directorate of Security and Police Headquarters. City of Qala-e-Naw briefly collapsed when the Afghan forces began to resist further advances of the insurgents³.

Province of Balkh which shares borders with Uzbekistan is witnessing massive infighting though the capital is relatively peaceful. Consulates of Turkey and Russia which operate in Mazar-e-Sharif capital of Balkh have closed down. Consulates of Iran, Pakistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan in the city have reduced their activities. Though India has closed Jalalabad and Herat consulate, it is not rushing to shut consulates in Mazar-e-sharif and Kandahar in lieu of criticality of ground presence.

Taliban’s massive runover has gained momentum after US vacated the Bagram airfield. As of now, Taliban consolidated its gains in strategic border districts. By closing in on the borders of the land-locked Afghan state, Taliban is planning to exert pressure on Afghan dispensation.

The real time assessment of Taliban by FDD’s Long War Journal as of July 5^th is as following- Taliban controlled districts-195, Contested districts-129 and Government controlled districts-75. Afghan government controls little over 20% of the total territory. Situation is dire⁴.

Taliban is steadily encircling Kabul and they are waiting for the complete withdrawal of US forces for the final kill. America’s stealthy abandonment Bagram airfield spectacularly turned the tide boosting the morale of the Taliban. Appositely, the remorseful and disgraceful exit will be forever etched in the memory of the Afghans.

Together, unrelenting Taliban offensive, low salaries, surrender of border troops in large numbers, crunch for help in launching airstrikes has demoralised the Afghan National Army (ANA). US administration has committed $4 billion annually to defence forces to support national security till 2024 during President Ashraf Ghani’s visit to Washington. Given the humongous scale of corruption, Afghanistan the finances will end up elsewhere.

In contrast, Taliban has steady sources of income from narcotic business, levies on mining and transport which is upwards of $1.5 billion. In recognition of Taliban’s steady gains, Shuras in Balochistan are making lavish donations. Additionally, they are now accruing the custom revenues from border posts as well.

While Taliban is on an ascendent, ANA is failing to make any serious effort to consolidate, regroup and repel them. Hence, Afghan government has launched national mobilisation or the process of recruiting volunteers and raising local militia to resist the insurgents⁵. Local warlords are gearing up for the looming the threat of Taliban and raising their own small armies to fight them back.

Bolstering the warlords under national mobilisation is a recipe for disaster. It is a return to 1990s wherein the infighting between the distrustful warlords eventually ended up in a civil war that claimed over 50,000 civilian lives.

Aside the dire forecasts about imminent of civil war, American withdrawal will mark the return of terrorism posing a strategic challenge to entire region. US which entered Afghanistan 20 years ago, spent a Trillion dollars and sacrificed 2000 lives having failed to contain the terrorism has shamefully retreated leaving the country in a colossal mess.

America’s remorseful act is in line with Gorbachev’s warning to Najibullah against American claims that they were, “actually concerned with the danger of the spread of Islamic fundamentalism”. Declassified meeting records of 1990 states Gorbachev has indicated that America was concerned about Islamic threats to allies (Pakistan) and added, “it would be naïve if one permitted the thought that we see only this side of their policy and do not notice other aspects. The US is not opposed to fundamentalism becoming the banner of 40 million Soviet Muslims and creating difficulties for the Soviet Union. They object only to it affecting their own interests”⁶.

His prescient observation is spot on. Taliban refused to extend the original deadline of May 1^st, which was negotiated between the Trump administration and Taliban by two months. Fearing attacks, US kickstarted the withdrawal oblivious to the consequences of such expedited departure. Though Taliban has refused to commit to ceasefire, putting the safety of its troops ahead of Afghan peace, America pulled back troops.

Notwithstanding the two decades of American efforts to stabilise the Afghan state and restore peace, America’s ill-conceived acts rightly reminded the World of Washington’s infamous stance. Taliban’s sharia-based regime is only “anti-modern” but not “anti-western”⁷. With these perceptions, America has sought accommodation with Taliban and lobbied to engage with them.

Instructively, Mullah Abdul Baradar, Taliban co-founder, said that, “We understand that the world and Afghans have queries and questions about the form of the system to be established following the withdrawal of foreign troops. A genuine Islamic system is the best means for solution of all issues of Afghans”. “We take it on ourselves as a commitment to accommodate all rights of citizens of our country whether they are male or female in the light of the rules of the glorious religion of Islam and the noble traditions of the Afghan society”⁸ he added.

Needless to say, a resurgent Taliban is all set to establish a sharia-guided totalitarian Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan and return of Islamic fundamentalism that condones terrorism watering down the gains of the past 20 years.

America’s Afghan war has never been about Islamist terrorism. Their current pullback is part of a deal with Taliban to stop targeted attacks on US troops. With situation deteriorating in Afghanistan, under international pressure, America is looking at “off shore over-the-horizon” counterterrorism operations. With boots on ground for 20 years, it failed to hold off Taliban. The proposed counter terrorism mission is a hogwash. Biden’s latest announcement of complete withdrawal by August 31^st and his full-throttled defence is so feckless on many counts.

 

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Hundred years of CCP: A cauldron of contradictions

Beijing is gearing up to celebrate the 100^th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) started on July 1^st ,1921 at Shanghai in all grandeur and splendour. China’s propaganda machinery is pulling no stops to exalt the objectives of the CCP and phenomenal contribution of the current regime in taking the Middle Kingdom to the pinnacles of success.

Powered by an ideology that offered a different system of governance and administration contrary to the West, China, wanted to demonstrate the dominance of its system. Garnering international recognition after it became UNSC permanent member in 1971, China began to penetrate the ruled-based institutional framework and surreptitiously used the system to advance its agenda. Consistently expanding its role at UN and its allied agencies China began transforming the institutions to reflect its priorities and values.

Till the fall of the Qing dynasty, China was uninterruptedly ruled for 275 years by monarchs, who ingrained the concept of “Zhongguo” meaning the Middle Kingdom. They envisioned a China which is political, cultural and economic centre of the World. In other words, they aspired for a Sino-centric world. After the fall of the Qing Dynasty in 1911 following a rebellion, the leaders advocated for “revitalisation of Chinese nation”¹. Chinese intellectuals influenced by the Bolshevik revolution and inspired by the Marxism, Leninism and world revolution formed the CCP in 1921. Under the helm of founding leaders- Chen Duxiu and Li Dazhao, CCP grew in strength and successfully drove away, Kuomintang’s Nationalist Forces to Taiwan in 1949 and established Peoples Republic of China (PRC).

As per the existing system, the leader of Centre Committee of CCP holds the offices of general secretary (civilian responsibilities), Chairman of Central Military (CMC), State President and is referred to as Paramount leader. By extension, the CCP is the singular guiding force of the country.

To deflect the charges of a single party governance and absence of basic democracy, China has intelligently come up with a rather jingoistic and flimsy explanations stating that China has multiparty system of cooperation and political consultation under the leadership of CCP. It enlisted eight political parties-the revolutionary Committee of the Chinese Kuomintang; the China Democratic League; the China National Democratic Construction Association; the China Association for Promoting Democracy; the Chinese Peasants and Workers Democratic Party; the China Zhi Gong Party; the Jiusan Society and the Taiwan Democratic Self-Government League and stated that all of them work together as single unit with CCP exercising state powers and others participating in the administration of state affairs. Prominent individuals without any political affiliations are also party of this system².

The designation of term political party to the above groups is a misnomer. Reading between the lines, the description of each of these agencies suggest that they are affiliate organisations of CCP actively contributing to different aspects of administration. The massive propaganda exercise days ahead of centenary celebration is just a hog-wash. True to their names, roots of majority groups can be traced to revolutionary phase of China and their relevance in contemporary times offers no justification to their current recalibration as political parties.

As opposed to the CCP’s current membership of 91.9 million the affiliates of these eight organisations barely run into lakhs. Each group now comprises of individuals specialised in various fields like- businessmen, entrepreneurs, doctors, overseas Chinese communities, peasants, workers, labourers, academicians, scientists, revolutionaries and Taiwan Compatriots as well.

Deeming it a parliamentary democracy the propaganda manual released by CCP says that on April 30^th 1948 parties responded to CCP’s call and accepted its leadership. In 1993 consolidating this system, the multiparty system cooperation added to the constitution endorsing the continuance of leadership of CCP for a long time in future.

The CCP propaganda manual which is toxic mix of ironies states that –“the non-CCP political parties exercise oversight over CCP mainly by putting forward opinions, criticisms and suggestions; the oversight is consultative and cooperative in nature. The CCP as the ruling party in a leadership position, willingly accepts the supervision of other political parties” ².

Interestingly for all the grand talks of projected inclusivity, not a whiff of criticism is spared in the country. Disappearance of the dissents has been a trend in China. When even the Noble Peace Prize nominee Liu Xiaobo diagnosed with cancer was incarcerated in jail on subversion charges for calling for greater democracy, how would the World even believe the existence of even an iota of democratic governance in China. With deceit and lies becoming the other name of CCP no amount of diligent propaganda purportedly indicating a semblance of democracy in governance is of no avail.

On the contrary, under the ruse of supervision, surveillance has become order of the day. With cameras continuously monitoring and tracking the individuals, Chinese citizens are now deprived of even basic minimum privacies in life.

The quintessential objectives of CCP’s agenda have been restoration of global power status and establishment of an alternate global governance order. Accordingly, massive Sinicization of the so-autonomous regions is carried out at jet speed. Ruthlessly cracking down on the freedom of speech, expression, religion and worship CCP has crushed the indigenous culture of the autonomous region. The internment of over 1 million Uyghur Muslims in the Xinjiang region, forced sterilisation to curb their population, demolition of mosques is now the major talking point at global platforms.

Though Beijing smartly managed to hide the self-immolation of hundreds of Tibetans and their struggle for autonomy during the 2008 Olympics, the horrors of Xinjiang have definitely reached a breakeven point. US Congressmen are calling for the boycott of 2022 Winter Olympics in China.

With respect to restoration of global power status which roughly translates into “unipolar Asia and bipolar World”, CCP made a huge leap. Keen on ushering the country into a “new era of socialism with Chinese Characteristics” the current regime has formidably hoisted the Middle Kingdom to enviable peaks by cementing its status as the manufacturing hub and promising economic superpower of the World. In the process, China has also become synonymous to slavery, genocide, suppression of basic freedoms, torture and religious persecution as well.

China’s enviable economic rise since its economic reforms in 1978 and its transition from a low-income country to an upper-middle-income country is nothing sort of a miracle. Consolidating its position as the global manufacturing hub, China has steadily emerged as a global power. China’s resource intensive manufacturing, exports and low-cost labour model is now doggedly adopted by several South East Asian countries.

A centenary of CCP should be evaluated on the basis of the epochal events that etched vicissitudes of country’s journey.  If CCP is to be lauded for the emergence of China as a global power, congruently it must be held responsible for the Great Leap Forward that led to a massive famine from 1958 to 62 killing 55 million; the Cultural Revolution in 1966-67 that claimed 20 million lives and undisclosed deaths of brutal Tiananmen Square crackdown.

But in the run up to the Centenary celebrations, China which believes that weakening of the Communist party in Soviet Union has led to its collapse resorted to White-washing vicious legacy of CCP leaders to lend it an aura of infallibility. By consequence, defiance to the orders of the Paramount leader has to treated as disloyalty to party. Using the twin handles of disciplinary action and anti-corruption drive, Xi purged close to one million office bearers including rival Bo Xilai  as part of the clean-up of the system.

Pursuant to narrative setting exercise a colossal attempt is made to reinterpret the history of China. Anyone who deviates from the party’s historical narrative is taken to task. As has been the case with Fang Fang’s Wuhan Diary, any literature that pillories the regime’s effort of coverup is systematically erased. All the inconvenient truths are being buried.

Commemorating the event, China’s education ministry held closed-door meetings with various scholars warranting them to be careful of what they write and say about the CCP’s grip on China’s history. Appealing them to be cautious about their presentation of events like the violent land redistribution campaign in 1950s that claimed lives of 2 million and other atrocities of Supreme leader Mao Zedong. Accordingly, all historical information inimical to the reputation of CCP and its leaders is going to be marked off as classified. Cadres are put through an ideological training regimen and Xi has been publicly administering pledges to the senior cadres to implant the “red gene”.

To firm up his position as “core for life” of CCP leadership, Xi’s achievements are lionised, glorifying his position, his teachings are turned into a religion and he is deified. Heralding his status as the authoritative interpreter of CCP history, Xi has even “redoubled efforts to clamp down on dissent among intellectuals and even former top cadres while also reining in leading private entrepreneurs whose wealth and influence may detract from the all-embracing powers of the party. Finally, Xi, who is also chairman of CMC that oversees the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), has masterminded a housecleaning of nation’s military and police forces”³.

Xi’s empowerment of the party is now a common refrain. Having eliminated the power limits three years ago, Xi, 68 is bound to remain in power till 2028 or later. With his unparalleled accomplishments both in economic and diplomatic frontiers, which pale in comparison to Mao and Deng, is inching closer to etching his name in the annals of Chinese history and constitution as well. Laying claims to the title of “transformational leader”, who has no equals in the contemporary history, he has literally ossified the party cadres.

But Xi’s operational style has undermined the doctrine of collective leadership and orderly succession. Orders passed from the top are to be executed. Everyone is restrained. Autonomy of local and regional officials is hindered. Participation of local villagers has shrunk as any suggestion is deemed as trigger to political instability.

Anything that posed threat to CCP’s monopoly of power is eliminated or blunted. The private sector, which is now the top-performer in China is taking the brunt. Sudden disappearance of high-profile players from public view, placement of CCP cadres in the higher echelons of the private enterprises and imposition of heavy fines for infringement of the anti-monopoly laws are enforced to subdue their influence.

Even as China is busy employing technology to address “historical nilihism” (a term used in China to describe public doubt and scepticism over CCP’s description of past events) wherein 2 million posts inimical to CCP in various websites are cleansed⁴, the tyranny of Xi’s authoritarianism and his dictatorial tendencies are now affecting the global order. With no checks and balances in place, Xi’s unbridled power is having a bearing on this World.  

Ahead of CCP’s Centenary celebrations, 40 countries led by Canada introduced a resolution against China at UNHRC for its actions in Hongkong, Tibet and called for access to Xinjiang region to probe the human rights status. Beijing rejected the charges and despite the backlash from the West, China refused to cooperate any investigation. Though China continues to deny, numerous testimonies and complaints of disappearance its vehement disapproval for international probe has only confirmed the worst fears. But what really made news is coercive diplomacy of China that caused Ukraine to pull out its name from the joint statement at the council over threat of stalling of vaccine shipment.

The closure of the Apple Daily, a lone pro-democracy voice in Hongkong last week by freezing the assets of the owner Jimmy Lai under the newly enacted national security law illustrates the power dominance, control and subjugation of CCP.

Ordained by President Deng Xiaoping’s 24-character strategy in the aftermath of global backlash against the Tiananmen crackdown which roughly translates into- “observe calmly; secure our position; cope with affairs calmly; hide our capacities and bide our time; be good at maintaining a low profile; and never claim leadership”⁵ China maintained a low profile for long. Eventually this remained the central tenet of China’s foreign policy till late 2000s.

By 2010 when China surpassed Japan as the second largest economy, shedding away these pretensions, President Xi Jinping who assumed charge in 2013, enunciated Chinese Dream with a stated objective of “Chinese rejuvenation”. Invoking the national fervour, recalling the days of foreign invasion, referring to the century of humiliation (1849-1949) unleashed bold initiatives to reshape the World. With a declaration “we should unswervingly uphold socialism with Chinese characteristics…. the superiority of our system will be fully demonstrated through a brighter future”⁶, Xi underscored the paramount importance of a robust communist party.

The unabashed aggressiveness hallmark of Xi’s regime emboldened the latent expansionist tendencies of the CCP. Indulging in a triumphalist narrative and reinforcing its dominance, China insisted on a nine-dash line in South China Sea, non-existent before 1940s and laid claims to 90% of maritime region. Evading the constitutional principle of “one country two system” China stifled the basic freedom of Hongkong. Deeming Taiwan as renegade province under “One China policy”, Beijing renewed annexation bids, intimidatory tactics and intensified air incursions. Reminiscent of the imperialistic practices of the West, capitalising on the infrastructure development pursuits of small countries, China through a global connectivity initiative plunged them into debt-traps. Weaponising trade and water to settle scores with adversaries and lower riparian countries, Beijing with trope of “win-win cooperation” eventually emerged as a “bully”

Notwithstanding the global skepticism of being originator of the covid pandemic, Beijing launched Wolf Warrior diplomats in its defence, unveiled mask diplomacy, used covid supplies as strategic weapons. Not satisfied with this global infamy, China exported its WHO-approved vaccines to over 60 countries. The efficacy of these vaccines is under scanner with at least 10 of 26 doctors who received Chinese vaccines in Indonesia died of Covid. Seychelles, Chile Mongolia, Bahrain, UAE, Indonesia which relied on China vaccines have reported a massive surge in infections⁷.

Under pandemic cover, China stealthily ingressed the LAC which resulted in bloody clashes for the first since 1967 reinvigorating the border tensions with India. More than a year to the stand-off China is steadily entrenched across the LAC. In violation of all bilateral agreements Beijing amassed troops and is attempting to unilaterally change the status quo by ramping up infrastructure development close to LAC. To arm-twist India, as per latest reports, China has even reportedly occupied 5% Bhutan territory as well.

China’s hegemonic aspirations blew lid of the much touted “peaceful rise” paradigm. Coincidentally, China’s favourability ratings have plummeted. As China readies to sing paeans in glory of CCP, the emerging superpower has irretrievably consolidated its position as a revisionist power.

 

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