Solution to Afghan peace lies with Pakistan

 Situation in Afghanistan is deteriorating rapidly. Taliban 2.0 has adopted the new strategy of taking over the border districts of land-locked Afghanistan and preparing to encircle capital Kabul to consolidate its dominance and leverage the gains for negotiating with Afghan government. Taliban advanced into North East region a traditional stronghold of the anti-Taliban forces last fortnight. In absence of stiff resistance from the Afghan forces and border guards, Taliban took over the Tajik-Afghan border post. Similarly, Taliban marched through Badghis province and gained control over the Uzbek-Afghan border, felling Herat, Taliban is now manning the Iran-Afghan border seizing the border area of Islam Qala.

Bound by a secret pact with America to protect the Western bases for a year from any attacks which expired on May 1^st, Taliban renewed its attacks on the Afghan forces henceforth. Their advance gained much pace and momentum after America expedited its withdrawal. Taliban doubled its gains and as per reports, it currently controls more than 85% of the territory. Alarmingly unlike in the past, Afghan forces are unable to recapture the lost provinces.

The latest to fall now is the Southern district of Spin Boldak and Taliban seized control of a major crossing with Pakistan.  Afghan flags at The Friendship gate in Chaman are now replaced by White Flag with Koranic verses of Taliban. With this the second largest port of Afghanistan, Kandahar is under the control of Taliban. By laying seize to important trade crossings in Kunduz and Farah provinces as well in the recent past, Taliban has deprived the Afghanistan of key sources of revenue and filling its coffers.

With thousands of refugees waiting at the Spin Boldok-Chaman crossing to enter Pakistan, the latter has closed its borders. Also, this crossing provides direct access to Balochistan province in Pakistan which is home to Taliban leadership for decades. By laying seize to this key arterial commercial line between Kandahar and Pakistan ports, Taliban have a proposed a three-month ceasefire in exchange for release of 7000 prisoners held by Afghan government.

Clearly, the situation is turning from bad to worse and the regional powers, most of them the members and observers of SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) have assembled at Dushanbe, Tajikistan. Given the gravity of the deteriorating security in Afghanistan, SCO has convened the SCO-Afghan Contact Group meeting, a formal contact body originally created in 2005 to address the security challenges in Afghan and its spill over effects into Central Asia.

Afghan Taliban has ethic linkages with terrorist groups like -Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) and Hizb-u-Tehrir (HUT) which attempted to topple the regimes in Central Asia and wanted to establish a Muslim caliphate. Taliban has close links with LeT, JeM, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and others. A resurgence of Taliban is bound to strengthen other terrorist groups and this will have direct bearing on the peace and stability of Central Asia and India.

At the 20^th SCO Foreign Ministers Meeting which concluded on July 14^th the members which include- China, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, India and Pakistan issued a joint statement which read- “We strongly call on all sides involved in the conflict in Afghanistan to abstain from using force or taking action that may lead to destabilisation and unpredictable consequences in the areas of Afghanistan’s borders with SCO member states”. SCO Observer States Afghanistan, Iran, Belarus, Mongolia also attended the meet.

Members expressed keenness to cooperate with Afghanistan to deal with extremism, terrorism and drug trade. They confirmed readiness to “expand cooperation in spheres of politics, security, economic and humanitarian cooperation”. The document further states, “the SCO member states reaffirm their respect for sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of Afghanistan”¹ and agreed in principle to Afghan-led and Afghan-owned reconciliation process.

Having principally agreed to the “Afghan-led and Afghan-owned” process, even before the ink of the Joint statement could dry, Pakistan’s air force has warned the Afghan government to refrain all its efforts to dislodge Taliban from the Spin Boldak area. Afghan Vice President Amrullah Saleh tweeted. This development has brought Afghanistan and Pakistan to the brink of the war and laid out bare Pakistan’s umbilical connect with Taliban.

Unprecedented escalation tensions along the Af-Pak border in the aftermath of the SCO Foreign Ministers Summit, has glaring exposed the double-standards and hypocrisy of Pakistan and China. SCO has come into existence in 2001 to mitigate the challenges of “terrorism, extremism and drug trafficking” emanating from Afghanistan and posing threat to the Central Asia.

With a focus on regional stability, SCO has created Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) in 2002 at Tashkent. Designating terrorism as a major security challenge, SCO resolved to fight this menace. and pledged to fight the scourge of terror in all forms and manifestations.

For decades, Pakistan has been using terrorism as a strategic weapon to pursue its foreign policy goals. The over four decades of unremitting war in Afghanistan and the incessant cross-border terror attacks on India are a living testimony to Pakistan’s terror patronship. With American finances, Pakistan has built a formidable jihadi machinery and unleashed it in the region whose tremors are felt even in Eurasia.

For reasons best known to America, despite knowing the double-game of Pakistan, it refused to designate the country as the fountainhead of terror. Similarly, by condoning Pakistan’ terror acts and shielding it from international censure on global platforms, China has done what America did to Pakistan. 

China welcomed Pakistan into SCO an organisation founded to fight terrorism along with India to strengthen its clout. Mocking America’s “great war on terror”, China has offered to mediate Afghanistan peace process. Partnering with mothership of terror, Beijing is bound to hit the same roadblock as America and it is unlikely that China can find a lasting solution for Afghanistan in specific and mitigate the challenges posed by threat to the region in general.  

Pakistan is the real threat. It is time countries force Islamabad to dismantle its terror ecosystem else all major powers and regional powers would keep reinventing the wheel without any success. For decades Pakistan has been waging a proxy war in Afghanistan. By failing to sanction Pakistan, countries have been reigniting episodes of “forever war”.

Pakistan pulls the strings of Afghan Taliban and controls the peace process. Looking elsewhere would be futile. Pakistan has been the primary exporter of terror. Until the country is dried of finances and decoupled from the World through sanctions, peace is a mirage.

Mincing no words, at the SCO Foreign Ministers Meet Jaishankar reiterated, “Combatting terrorism and extremism is the key purpose of SCO. Must stop terror financing and digital facilitation”

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