Mohammed bin Salman disappoints India by failing to name Pakistan for Pulwama attacks

Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, popularly known as MBS in the aftermath of the dastardly Pulwama attack drew attention of strategists and political masters for various reasons. Ever since the brutal murder of The Washington Post Columnist, Jamal Khashoggi’s murder in Saudi Arabia Consulate at Istanbul, MBS reputation took a massive hit. European countries kept their ties with Saudi on a low key. But President Trump, wary of losing $40 billion defence purchases, tipped to revitalise American economy and boost employment refrained from openly condemning MBS for his complicity in murder. Undeterred by these troubling precedents, Prime Minister Modi met MBS along the side-lines of G-20 Summit at Argentina. Modi’s engagement with MBS drew sharp criticism. Media and activists rebuked Modi, leader of the largest democracy for holding talking with MBS despite grievous charges of human rights violation against him. Modi who had been unequivocally working towards fostering Indian interests had kept away from the Khashoggi’s murder and the shifting strategic realignments in the West Asia. Amidst criticism of bad diplomatic move, bad judgement, Prime Minister Modi extended an invitation to MBS, the king in waiting for a state visit. Indeed, setting a stellar example for fine diplomatic balancing, Modi held trilateral talks with contrasting groups- Japan, America, India (JAI) and Russia, India and China (RIC) back to back at Buenos Aries. Modi’s ease of precarious diplomatic handling indeed drew applause from international observers who closely watched the G-20 summit at Argentina.

India’s ties with West Asian countries dived south after 1979. The historic visit of King Abdullah to India on the eve of Republic Day celebrations and subsequent signing of the “Delhi Declaration” marked the revival of bilateral ties. Later Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on his visit to Saudi in 2010 signed the “Riyadh Declaration” laying ground for fostering ties. Prime Minister Modi on his visit to Desert Nation in 2016 infused fresh energy into the relationship. Modi’s renewed interest to tread the path of convergence of mutual interest heralded a new beginning. Unlike India’s ties which are built on firm grounds of civilizational and historical connect with Saudi Arabia religion catalysed Pakistan’s bonhomie with Riyadh. Cooperation under the rubric of OIC (Organisation for Islamic Cooperation), a collective of Islamic countries eventually brought the countries in West Asia close to Pakistan who supported Islamabad’s stance on Kashmir at UN. Indeed, generous flow of finances from Saudi helped Pakistan to tide over various international sanctions.

With time, Saudi’s ties with Pakistan varied from being to good to worse. To balance its rocky relationship with Western neighbour, Pakistan refused to send troops for Saudi-led coalition war against the Houthi rebels backed by Iran in Yemen. Losing no time, to placate the hefty financial west Asian power, Pakistan’s former Army chief Raheel Sharif agreed to command the Islamic coalition forces. Currently debt-ridden Pakistan economy is going through worst financial crisis and struggling to keep its debt-ridden afloat. America stalled its financial assistance to Pakistan for its unrestrained support to cross border terrorism. Pakistan is grappling with double-whammy of empty coffers and new infamy of mothership of terror.

Saudi on the other hand, disowned by the West due to murder charges against MBS is facing a domestic turmoil of internal feuds among Royal clan and escalating tensions with Iran. Miffed by America’s unilateral withdrawal from nuclear treaty Iran renewed its efforts in mastering missile technology. A wary Saudi is now keen on obtain a deterrent. Uncovering Saudi’s nuclear ambitions, NPR (National Public Radio), revealed that President Trump under the influence of his former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn recommended transfer of nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia. Just six months before Flynn’s appointment as NSA, he served as adviser to IP3 International Company, a private firm seeking to build nuclear reactors in Saudi. Given, Pakistan’s prowess in nuclear technology, nuclear cooperation has become a new front of cooperation between two countries. Tightening its influence over Pakistan, Saudi offered timely financial assistance to Pakistan and subsequently Islamabad allowed it troops to fight along with Islamic coalition in Yemen. The strategic calculus of Pakistan-Saudi relations includes- financial assistance, nuclear cooperation, defence cooperation and plausible investments in Gwadar region besides the traditional supply of men and resources for perpetuating radical Islamism.

Shunned by the West, the King in waiting, MBS embarked on his maiden trip to Asian countries- Pakistan, India, China, South Korea in order. Earlier the itinerary included Malaysia and Indonesia but cancelled for unknown reasons. His visit to Islamabad preceded Pakistan sponsored terror outfit Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM)’s suicide attack on a convoy carrying Indian security personnel that killed 45 men in service. This attack not only raised the temperatures in the sub-continent and irrevocably damaged India-Pakistan relations but India seething with anger has vowed diplomatic isolation. Islamabad welcomed MBS with a 21-gun salute, gifted him a gold-plated gun, declared Monday a public holiday in his honour and conferred Nishan-E-Pakistan, highest civilian award amidst international rebuke and condemnation for being a state sponsor of terror.

In Islamabad, MBS offered to pitch in to de-escalate tensions between India and Pakistan and the joint statement “their commitment to continue combatting extremism and terrorism and expressed their deep appreciation for the achievements and sacrifices made by the two sides in the war against terrorism. They also applauded the martyrs who sacrificed their lives in order to confront this serious scourge and called the international community to shoulder its responsibilities to join all international efforts to combat global terrorism. They also underlined the need for avoiding politicization of UN listing regime” is in sharp contrast to India’s position and seems to override the objections of New Delhi which has been seeking the support of like-minded countries to join in fight against terrorism. Especially the last line seems to stall India’s efforts to place Masood Azhar, head of JeM in the international list of terrorists.

Pakistan is known to be a patron of Saudi. Hence a joint statement, absolving themselves from all the terror activities is no surprise. But a day before Pulwama attacks, European Commission included Saudi Arabia and Pakistan to EU’s money-laundering blacklist of governments calling the bluff of both countries. Charmed by Pakistan’s hospitality and Imran Khan chauffeuring MBS, Saudi Arabia has apparently, acknowledged Pakistan’s efforts towards regional peace and security, praised Khan’s for persisting with idea of dialogue with India, opening of Kartarpur Corridor and Islamabad’s role in promoting peace and stability in Afghanistan. Through subversive portrayal of Pakistan and awkward whitewashing of the duplicitous and deceitful role of Pakistan for the tumultuous affairs in the sub-continent MBS has offended India hours before his visit to New Delhi.

Undoubtedly, Pakistan is Saudi Arabia’s preeminent ally on ideological basis. Of late, influenced by the rapid strides of its closest Emirati peer, UAE is attempting to reorient itself as a moderate and open country. Grappling with travails of an oil-dependent economy, MBS unveiled, Vision 2030 with a key emphasis on strategic international investments. Saudi realised the immense opportunities of partnering with the fastest developing economy. Being one of the fastest growing economies on the planet, India presented immense opportunities for growth and investment.

To avoid hyphenating his Pakistan’s visit with that of India, MBS flew back to Riyadh from Islamabad and landed in New Delhi making his trip a standalone visit. In a departure from official protocol, Prime Minister Modi received Crown Prince at the airport in reciprocation of MBS assent to India’s request to fly back to Riyadh before arriving at New Delhi. Modi welcomed MBS with his characteristic bear hug. Modi’s gesture is an endorsement to MBS attempts of transform its traditionally, closed economy to an investment friendly nation. Taking a cue from UAE which markedly metamorphosized into an international investment and business hub, Saudi is taking baby steps to wean off economy from Petrodollars. Indeed, Saudi’s Armaco along with UAE are planning to build $44 billion mega oil refinery at Ratnagiri, Maharashtra. Given the strangle hold of fundamental Islamists over the Saudi regime, people are sceptical of MBS and his intentions. Moving away from the traditional setting where the umbilical cord of religion brought nations together, West Asian nations have realised need for cultivating ties with developing economies. The east ward leaning of MBS believed to be apprenticing with UAE is an effort in this direction.

In 2015, King Salman offered assistance in evacuation of over 4000 Indians stranded in Yemen instilling trust and confidence in Indo-Saudi strategic relationship. Ever since, the suicide bomb attack before the US consulate at Jeddah by a Pakistani national, Saudi called for rigorous vetting and tougher screening for Pakistani nationals. In 2017, Saudi deported 40,000 Pakistanis on the grounds of security concerns. Riyadh’s hardened stance to curb terrorism raised new hopes about its role in counter terrorism. By facilitating deportation of key suspects in various scams and terror suspects in Emirates, Middle East countries have earned trust and faith crucial for nurturing bilateral ties.

Unmindful of political backlash over MBS’s proclamations of “consider me Pakistan’s ambassador to Saudi Arabia” in Pakistan, Prime Minister Modi personally received the King in waiting at the airport. Over 3.2 million strong Indian expatriate community work in Saudi Arabia who remit over $10 billion to India annually. As a custodian of two holiest Islam shrines, Saudi holds a sway among billions of Muslims. Besides it is an influential member in organisations like Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) that plays a huge role in overlooking the welfare of millions of Indian blue-collar workers migrating to Middle East. As a founding member of OPEC (Oil and Petroleum Exporting Countries) and OIC (Organisation of Islamic Cooperation), Saudi has huge global clout. After Modi’s meeting with MBS along the sidelines of G-20 summit, Saudi oil minister Khalid Al Falih in the OPEC meeting at Vienna announced that considering the views of Prime Minister Modi, cartel delayed decision on oil production. Consequently, prices of crude stabilised. Currently India is importing 800,000 barrels of crude from Saudi daily and by 2040 India’s requirement is likely to touch 8.2 million barrels per day. Reliable source of oil supplies is essential to keep India’s engines of growth running. Energy cooperation with Saudi Arabia is thus crucial. As a modern democracy, a developing economy like India can’t afford to distance itself in this globally linked interconnected World. Saudi through its new state craft have strengthened ties with US and Israel, emerged as crucial player in geopolitics of strategic Middle East. Modi who pursued a pragmatic foreign policy, thus far stayed away from international conflicts and diligently maintained strong ties with all the three major countries in the Middle East- Saudi Arabia, Israel and Iran.

After the ceremonial red-carpet welcome, MBS called Modi his “elder brother” and added, “the relationship between India and the Saudi Arabian Peninsula has been in our DNA”. Later both leaders held delegation level talks and agreed to strengthen existing “strategic partnership” through creation of Strategic Partnership Council led by both leaders. Countries signed five MoUs on infrastructure investment, tourism, broadcasting, new framework for cooperation and housing. Saudi Arabia joined International Solar Alliance (ISA). Besides the government to government agreements, Saudi Arabian General Investment Authority (SAGIA) signed four investments worth $28 million and 11 MoUs. MBS announced $100 billion investment in India in the areas of energy, refining, petrochemicals, infrastructure, agriculture, mining, manufacturing, education and health. MBS reiterated Saudi’s commitment of meeting any shortages in energy supplies and agreed to participate in India’s Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPRs). Both countries agreed to begin joint naval exercises and expand bilateral exercises to other domains.

The joint statement failed to name Pakistan but instead leaders called upon countries “to renounce the use of terrorism as an instrument of state policy” and strongly condemned the Pulwama attacks. It read, “Affirming that the menace of terrorism and extremism threatens all nations and societies, the two rejected any attempt to link this universal phenomenon to any particular race, religion or culture. Both sides called on all states to reject use of terrorism against other countries, dismantle terror infrastructure where they happen to exist and to cut off any kind of support and financing to terrorists perpetrating terrorism from all territories against other state and bring perpetrators to justice”. Undoubtedly, this affirmation might seem to be a generic statement from a state that had financed the seeds of terrorism. But the statement which is directed to Pakistan is a message from India which is building substantial diplomatic capital to isolate Islamabad internationally.

Further, “the two sides also noted the need for concerted action by the international community against terrorism including through early adoption of UN Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism (CCIT) and underlined the importance of comprehensive sanctioning of terrorists and their organisations by the UN”. The concurrence of Saudi Arabia to “comprehensive sanctioning by UN” is in sharp contrast to Saudi’s stance in Pakistan where it called UN monitored sanctioning as politicising. While it is hard to overlook the inconsistencies of MBS, it is perhaps an indication that New Delhi can’t use its ties with Saudi as a leverage to rein in on Pakistan. Alternatively, MBS batted for enhanced counter terrorism cooperation and real-time intelligence sharing. Both leaders agreed to constitute Comprehensive security dialogue at the level of National Security Advisors and set up a Joint Working Group on Counter-terrorism. As a friendly gesture, Saudi Arabia increased India’s Hajj quota to 200,000 and ordered release of 850 Indian prisoners in Saudi jails. Both countries are planning to integrate the e-Migrate and e-Tawtheeq to create a robust migration system. Saudi assured India to sort out the punitive labour laws that left many innocent Indian unskilled workers stranded in Saudi.

Critics might be tempted to castigate Modi for failing to name and shame Pakistan during MBS visit coming at the tumultuous phase of terror attack. A vast majority was indeed disappointed with MBS for failing to rebuke Pakistan for perpetrating unabated insurgency and terror attacks in Kashmir valley. While Modi’s deft diplomacy has invariably firmed up bilateral ties, MBS failed to dispel India’s concerns of Saudi Arabia as financier of radical Islamism.

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Terror rears its ugly head in Kashmir Valley: Pulwama Attack

India is engulfed by surprise, pain and humiliation. The dastardly Pulwama attack that led to killing of 40 CRPF jawans and 44 injured left Indians seething with rage, anguish and vulnerability. The horrific suicidal attack in the Kashmir valley one of the deadliest attacks in the past two decades saw the return of suicidal attacks in the region. The attack carried out by a local boy in the broad day on a highway marked the resurgence of violent jihadism. As per the reports the attack was carried out by a highly radicalised 22-year old school dropout Adil Ahmed Dhar. In February 2018, he joined the Zakir Musa led terror outfit then switched allegiances and allied with Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM). He rammed an explosive-laden SUV into a bus carrying the CRPF personnel. The 2500-convoy travelling in 78 vehicles became the target of the attack. Minutes after the collision, the bus burst into flames and the bodies were reduced to smithereens. CRPF jawans in the adjoining buses were prevented from coming to the rescue of the affected people as JeM terrorists rained bullets from behind. The nature of the attack, the scale of the brutality and the amount of the planning clearly indicated that it couldn’t have been carried out by an amateur.

Preliminary investigation revealed that as much as 350-kg IED explosives might have been used in the attack. The logistics of bringing such huge amounts of explosives and assembling goes on to show that an extremely skilled professional may have orchestrated the attack. Given the scale of the attack, agencies suspected role of Pakistan deep state has been making some noises on the media networks recently. Connecting the dots and available media reports, it emerges that JeM commander Abdul Rasheed Ghazi, an Afghan war veteran and IED specialist was dispatched to India around Dec 9^th to avenge the deaths of JeM commanders-Talha and Usman, nephews of Azad. Indeed, there was rather a clamour around Feb 9^th the death anniversary of Afzal Guru of a deadly attack in Kashmir Valley. Minutes after the attack, JeM claimed responsibility for the attack.

Devastating attack on the CRPF convoy travelling to Srinagar has come a day after a private school in Pulwama was struck by a bomb explosion which left 12 students injured. Initial reports claim that explosion is caused a student bag but investigators are yet to ascertain the circumstances of the incident. Every year, valley experiences some break from the terror attacks during the winter months as infiltration through the slippery mountain ranges becomes difficult. But this winter, there hasn’t been any respite from the attacks and unrelenting episodes of encounters, search and cordon operations have become an ordeal for security personnel.  As of December 2018, 223 terrorists were neutralised in 429 operations a record high in eight years. The unremitting crackdown on terror led to effective cleansing of terror elements in the valley. On January 24^th Jammu and Kashmir police declared North Kashmir district of Baramulla militant-free after the last three terror operatives of LeT were gunned down. Ten days back India has hosted the Indus water Treaty Pakistan team which inspect the Chenab basin in Jammu and Kashmir. Pulwama attack indeed asserts India’s treatment of Pakistan with kids gloves. While India has accepted the most generous water sharing Indus Water Treaty, arrangement, Pakistan continues to reciprocate with deadly terror attacks on India. Similarly, India accorded Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status to Pakistan in 1996 despite Pakistan’s reservations to reciprocate. In 2016, when the issue came to review, Modi regime hasn’t revoked it. For the past 23 years Pakistan enjoyed unrestrained trade access to India.

Incensed by Pulwama attack, India came down heavily on Pakistan. Mincing no words, MEA held JeM responsible for the attack and said, “The heinous despicable act has been perpetrated by the Jaish-e-Mohammed, a Pakistan-based and supported terrorist organisation proscribed by the United Nations and other countries. This terror group is led by the international terrorist Masood Azhar who has been given full freedom by the government of Pakistan to operate and expand his terror infrastructure in territories under the control of Pakistan and to carry out attacks in India and elsewhere with impunity”. Taking an indirect dig at China for thwarting India’s repeated attempts to black-list Masood Azhar as international terrorist, India appealed members to prevail on the UNSC. India added, “We demand that Pakistan stop supporting terrorists and terror groups operating from their territory and dismantle the infrastructure operated by terrorist outfits to launch attacks in other countries. We strongly reiterate our appeal to all members of international community to support the proposal to list terrorists including JeM chief Masood Azhar, as a designated under the 1267 Sanction committee of the UN Security Council and to ban terrorist organisations operating from territories controlled by Pakistan”. JeM under the tutelage of Pakistan has emerged as the most virulent terror operative. Some of the most deadly of JeM include Parliamentary attacks in December 2001 that killed 14 security personnel, 2016 Pathankot attack and the most second deadly suicidal attack in front of Srinagar secretariat car bombing which killed 38 people and  40 injured.

Heart wrenching visuals of mangled bodies, mounds of flesh scattered across the site of attack have touched raw nerve of Indians. While the first thoughts of Pakistan’s obvious involvement infuriated India, the involvement of locals and ability of the foreign agents to penetrate Indian borders enraged people in the valley. Outpouring of grief flooded the social media networks where people vented their anger and frustration. At a time, when people of every walk of life are expected to stand shoulder to shoulder to overcome brutal tyranny of external agents, disjointed, incongruent and politically motivated statements inadvertently turned the focus towards the vested interests operating within the country. Unlike other terrorist attacks, when the government and people unequivocally attributed external agents for the terror attacks, Pulwama attack changed country’s perspective towards terrorism. This attack prompted government to look inwards.

While lashing out at Pakistan for supporting, aiding, abetting and patronising terror, Jitendra Prasad, MoS, PMO termed the act an act of desperation. He added, “I call to question those who while living in India and describing themselves as mainstream Kashmir politicians tend to be apologetic about these terror activities sponsored from across the Indian soil”. He called the bluff of the intellectual brigade of India who tacitly provided cover to the nefarious terror activities in the valley. Terror sympathisers who masquerade as human rights have prevailed on the government to pardon 9730 stone pelters and repeatedly exerted pressure on culling the force strength in the valley. But ironically, these high-profile individuals, politicians and their ilk indulge in soft terrorism under the security cover.

Over the decades, India has been facing the wrath of the terror haven Pakistan which has stratified itself as hub of terrorism in the South Asia and beyond. At the India’s hour of grief while nations in the immediate neighbourhood and across the World expressed their condemnation and shared the pain, India’s western and northern neighbour have remained indifferent. Indeed, China, the brother in arms of Pakistan hasn’t issued any statement condemning the attack. Pakistan has modified its statement twice in a gap of 15 minutes after the release. The hollow statement, which reeked of caprice, malintent and callousness read- “Attack in Pulwama in the India Occupied Kashmir is a matter of grave concern. We have always condemned acts of violence anywhere in the world. We strongly reject any insinuation by elements in Indian media and government that seek to link that attack to Pakistan without investigations”. In the second statement, Pakistan replaced the India Occupied Kashmir with Jammu and Kashmir. The insincere condemnation of reducing the brutal terror inflicted by its strategic assets to mere violence reflected insensitivity of Pakistan. Aggravating the situation further, Pakistan resorted to unprovoked firing from across LoC in Poonch district. Hours after Pulwama attack, terrorists attacked a police station in Shopian district. These two events further exposed the duplicity and disingenuity of Pakistan.

Successive Indian governments have been considerate towards Pakistan which has mastered the art of asymmetric warfare. Though current regime gave a free hand to security personnel to retaliate and even carried out a surgical strike to avenge the Uri killings, Indian efforts still seem to be insufficient to extricate terror.  The Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) meeting held in the aftermath of Pulwama attack revoked Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status accorded to Pakistan inflicting a blow to a crumbling Pakistan economy. Prime Minister Modi has promised to fight Pakistan tooth and nail and assured a befitting retaliation. In the meanwhile, India received overwhelming support from like-minded nations. Hours after the attack, US strongly condemned the attack, extended condolences to the families of the bereaved security personnel and issued a travel advisory to Pakistan. Referring to the attack, White House press secretary said, “This attack will only strengthen our resolve to bolster counter terrorism cooperation and coordination between the United States and India”. A pledge from US at a time, when rifts between the US and China are widening has a huge geopolitical ramification. Besides, Pakistani Deep State’s act of unleashing terror against India might prompt America to rethink about its withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. It might prompt them to reassess the involvement of Pakistan in the Afghan peace talks with Taliban. China’s silence has undeniably exposed its credentials as patron of terror for being at the forefront in shielding Pakistan on international platforms. Till now, Pakistani generals were held responsible for terror attacks now China would have to partake the blame.

Pakistan had no qualms in waging an asymmetric warfare to foster anti-India agenda for decades. India must now use its international clout to isolate Pakistan diplomatically. Last week Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan held talks with IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde along the side-lines of World Government Summit in Dubai for a bailout package to rescue its sinking economy. India should use its 3% voting rights to stall the package. Further it must exert pressure on FATF to monitor diversion of finances to terror conduits. Besides these outstanding events, India shouldn’t be averse to Balkanisation of Pakistan, severing diplomatic ties and impose pre-conditions on Pakistan-friendly nations keen on doing business with India.

Simultaneously New Delhi must be well advised to refrain from falling into the Pakistani trap of using cultural ties or historical ties as a bait to backstab India. Imran Khan through his Kartarpur Sahib corridor bait effectively gave wings to his India’s policy of taking two steps in response of India’s one step forward.

Time has now come for India to take the bull of terrorism by its horns. To extricate terror, India must strike at its roots which are deeply entrenched in the ideology of the radical Islamism that advocates and eulogises Jihad. India must censure and punish the non-state actors who advocate soft terrorism. All the aspects which goes into spread of this ideology must be attacked. These includes financial conduits, source of the ideology, recruitment and indoctrination. A multipronged approach must be rolled out to monitor activities of underground and over ground cadres. In fact, radicalised individuals who are the potent executioners of terror attacks undergo years of training, planning and targeting to inflict grave damage. An effective counterterrorism approach must encompass strategies to knockdown various tiers of this non-conventional warfare. International Community has always shied away from acknowledging the role of odious ideologies to address the scourge of terrorism. Fidayeen video which emerged after the Pulwama attack underscored the impact of the hateful ideologies on terrorism. Indian intelligence agencies must keep an eagle’s eye on developments in valley, like draping the remains of terrorists in IS flags, hoisting Pakistan flags and the ideologically charged Friday sermons. Random events like the IS-style execution of a 25-year old woman in Shopian district of valley by unknown militants must be keenly invested. All the subversive theories advocating role of socio-economic parities like poverty, unemployment or fissures in society in terrorism is just a sham. The unpalatable reality of the 21^st century is that modern world is tasked to take on medieval age war stratagems that ruthlessly patronised barbaric violence and supremacy of a particular ideology.

In this election season, Indian politicians might be tempted to make irresponsible statements against current dispensation for political brownie points. Instead political parties must exercise restraint in nation’s interest. Putting differences at bay and leaders must join hands to chart out strategies for a war of terror. 

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India reaches a major milestone by taking over the operations of Chabahar port

Setting the precedent of surging ahead in the pursuit of overcoming the barriers of connectivity, India formally took over operations of the Chabahar port on December 24^th. The historic moment which can be reckoned as major foreign policy milestone have boosted India’s efforts of rebuilding war-torn Afghanistan. India’s joint venture company, India Ports Global company began functioning from its offices at Shaheed Behesti Port Chabahar. Soon Joint Secretaries of all the three countries-India, Iran and Afghanistan held first follow-up committee meeting for implementation of the trilateral Chabahar agreement. They agreed on the routes for trade and transit corridors between three countries and finalisation of the protocol to “harmonise transit, roads, customs and consular matters”. They even discussed measures to decrease logistics costs. Second round of meeting will be held on February 26^th 2019 to promote and popularise the port.

Pakistan denied land access to Indian goods crippling India’s trade with Afghanistan and Central Asian countries. Ever since India has been exploring ways to bypass Pakistan. Giving a major fillip to India’s connectivity, Prime Minister Modi on his visit to Iran signed trilateral agreement for Establishment of International Transport and Transit in 2016. India even signed a MoU with EXIM Bank which extended a line of credit of $150 million for refurbishing the port and $85 million towards development of two berths at Chabahar.

In 2003 NDA-I regime headed by Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee realised the strategic significance of the Chabahar, the only Iranian port along the Makran coast which has direct access to Indian Ocean. Indian government subsequently initiated talks with Iran government. But with Iran coming under sanctions regime in 2005, talks on Chabahar talks took a back seat. Incidentally, against the backdrop of Iran signing a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or widely known Iranian Nuclear Deal with P5 countries and Germany, when all economic sanctions were lifted on Iran, India finalised the Chabahar deal.  After President Trump unilaterally pulled out from the JCPOA in May 2018 a fresh round of US sanctions kicked off from November 4^th. A gloom of uncertainty loomed over Chabahar port agreement. Subsequently India held talks with American officials seeking waiver of port from US sanctions.

India relentlessly worked towards reconstruction of Afghanistan by offering unstinted financial support, training Afghanistan security forces and in capacity building. Last year when Afghanistan was hit by drought India shipped 1.1 million tonnes of Wheat through Chabahar port. This move not only paved way for operationalisation of the port but expanded the trading opportunities with land-locked Afghanistan. Pakistan by refusing transit of Indian goods through its territory tried to consolidate its control over Afghanistan through Taliban. India steadily worked towards exploring the alternate access to Afghanistan through Chabahar. Simultaneously, India opened air-cargo corridor to Afghanistan to overcome Pakistan barrier for trade. In 2017, Iran offered India a proposal to manage phase I for two years, subsequently Tehran gave India approval for operating two berths and few terminals in Phase II for ten years. In the meanwhile, China intensified its efforts to develop the Gwadar port 76 nautical miles from Chabahar. Going by the pace of Chinese construction, observers believed that Chabahar would face stiff competition from Gwadar located in Baluchistan province of Pakistan. Back then Union Minister for Shipping, Road Transport and Highways Nitin Gadkari announced that Chabahar operationalisation would start by end of December.  America which is fighting war against in Afghanistan for the past 17 years appreciated India’s efforts. Trump acknowledged India’s role in his South Asia strategy. Last month America announced its exemption for Chabahar port and added that, “it relates to reconstruction assistance and economic development of Afghanistan. These activities are vital for the ongoing support of Afghanistan’s growth and humanitarian relief”. India’s fervent efforts finally bore fruit and formal operations began this week.

Chabahar besides providing alternate sea access to Afghanistan will play a pivotal role in bolstering India’s attempts to buttress connectivity with Russia. India is planning to construct a railway line to Zahedan which can connect to International North-South Corridor. Currently Indian shipments to Afghanistan are transported on the Delaram-Zaranj road constructed by New Delhi. Road from the Afghan-Iran border to Chabahar already exists. Afghan Permanent representative to UN welcomed America’s decision, “The Chabahar port remains an important gateway for providing commercially viable access to the sea linking the Indian Ocean with Afghanistan, Central Asia and beyond. In this regard we appreciate the collaboration and flexibility of our strategic partner, the United States to work with Afghanistan, Iran and India towards exempting the port from its sanctions”.

Challenges

India’s venture in the Gulf region through which nearly 70% of the imports flow to the rest of the World is a real game changer. India leasing operationalisation of Chabahar for a decade from Iran at the height of US-Iran rivalry is replete of several challenges.

India Ports Global (60:40 joint venture between Jawaharlal Port Trust and Deen Dayal Trust, Kandla) is a private entity. Now government of India is slowly obtaining shares of the company else the private company which face the threat of getting black listed for doing business with Iran as per American sanctions. In 2016, Indian Ports Global signed an agreement Aria Banader Iranian port to run the container and multi-purpose terminal at Shaheed Behesti port. Iran even demanded a Euro-denominated bank guarantee in 2016 to generate minimum business at the port. Since fresh round of US sanctions, Iran has come down. As per latest estimates the port is assured of annual business worth $22.95 million. Weeks before final operations are to begin at Chabahar, armed Sunni-group Ansar a-Furquan carried out a suicide bomb attack that killed two people and left 43 injured. This reminded India of complex discord in the region. Besides the exemption on Chabahar port, America sanctioned waivers to eight countries including India for importing oil from Iran till March 2019. India prefers Iranian crude for its 60-day credit, free shipping and insurance. Iran is the largest supplier of oil to India. To overcome sanctions barrier, India and Iran have signed an agreement in November 2^nd for oil payment in rupees and 50% of these funds had been earmarked for exports. India is exploring the possibility of similar payment mechanism with Russia, Venezuela. Iran couldn’t risk the possibility of zeroing of imports from Iran considering its ever-increasing demand for oil which make up for 83% of India’s total imports. Aside energy security good ties with Iran are extremely important for India to over Pakistan barrier and to bolster its trade and commerce with Chabahar serving as the connectivity hub.

Indo-Iranian Ties

India’s ties with Iran are several centuries old. In contemporary times strengthened the North Alliance to overthrown the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. Iran, western neighbour of Pakistan is always at logger heads with Islamabad rooted in sectarian differences. Going by the old logic of enemy of an enemy is a friend India renewed friendly ties Iran to hedge against Pakistan in this multipolar world.

Despite the convergence over Afghanistan issue in 1990s there are several irritants in Indo-Iranian relations. In 2005, India supported the International Atomic Energy Agency report backed by American at the UNSC leading to imposition of multilateral sanctions against Iran for its stealth nuclear infrastructure and nuclear ambitions. Angered by India’s stand, Iran cancelled LNG exports to India. Indian Space Agency, ISRO launched an anti-Iranian Israeli spy satellite in 2008. India and Iran had serious differences over the ONGC explorations in 2010 and the much-touted oil pipe line between India and Iran never took off.

On the other hand, Iran extended financial support to Kashmiri insurgents fighting government of India during the 1987-elections. Similarly, in 2012 Iran is alleged to have sponsored attacks against Israeli diplomats in New Delhi. While Iran stayed away from making an issue out of strengthening Indo-Israel relations, India never interfered in sectarian Iran-Saudi Arabia rivalry in the Gulf region. Both countries did tough balancing act, made several adjustments to prevent relations from deteriorating beyond point of no return.

Notwithstanding the sanction regime prior to the finalisation of JCPOA, during Obama regime, India continued to import oil from Iran by making payments in rupees. India thus made every effort to sustain the energy partnership. But now the precarious Indo-Iranian relations are challenged by the burgeoning US-Iran confrontation.

Geopolitical Ramifications

Unilateral withdrawal of American from the JCPOA and subsequent imposition of sanctions has left the country in a lurch. Prospects of a slippery financial situation frustrated the Iranian public who have been bearing the brunt of growing inflation, stalled incomes and unemployment. Protests erupted across the country. People rebelled against the Hassan Rouhani government that painstakingly negotiated nuclear deal with the west. Fundamentalists and Iranian clergy lashed out at America for reinstating second round of sanctions on Iran. Trump’s relentless attacks on Iran pushed into Russian orbit. Iran and Russia having fought Syrian on the same side are now seeking to strengthen their ties. Given, Iran’s importance for energy security and strategic geographic location in its global connectivity initiative, China ramped up cooperation with Tehran. Javad Zarif, foreign Minister of Iran, invited China to invest in Chabahar before unilateral American sanctions. Considering the ongoing the trade conflicts between China and America, Chabahar wouldn’t have be granted exemption had China invested in the port development.

On the contrary, pestering Afghan war is making America desperate. Trump administration is losing patience. It openly castigated Pakistan for failing to rein in on Taliban. Unlike in the past when Iran and Russia were on the opposite sides, Tehran is now on same page with Russia, China and Pakistan with respect to Taliban. Indian interests find congruence with those of America with respect to Afghanistan. Essentially Trump’s disruptive foreign policy decision and growing rift with Iran steadily changed the geopolitical power equations.

Win-Win Scenario

By seeking waiver of sanctions, India asserted the strategic importance of Chabahar port in its efforts to revive war-torn Afghanistan and for enhancing prospects of trade and commerce with Central Asian countries. Through operationalisation of port, India ensured that Iran could partake some economic returns providing much needed succour. In the process, New Delhi sent a message that despite its robust defence cooperation and growing ties with America, India will not make comprises on its strategic interests.

While Iran might be miffed by India cutting the oil imports from Iran to zero by March end, relentless anti-Iran campaign by America will increase India’s leverage. Iran will be forced to expedite the conclusion of agreement for use of local currencies in trade. This can prove beneficial for India’s agricultural exports as well. Incidentally, India and Iran are close to finalisation of Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) that would reduce tariffs on identified 80 to 100 products purchased from other country.

Chabahar is India’s first foreign port investment which has potential to shore up India’s trade potential. This is a huge opportunity to Iran as unlike the Bandar Abbas port which opens into Gulf of Hormuz, Chabahar is a deep port and opens directly into Indian Ocean.

In the first week of December, in response to Iran’s test firing of a medium range-ballistic missile capable of carrying multiple war heads, America deployed Nimitz class aircraft carrier USS John C Stennis as a deterrence and task force that can support America’s fight against IS in Syria and war in Afghanistan. Iran had also deployed an anti-aircraft stealth destroyer in Straits of Hormuz. Thus, it its maiden foray into the Middle East, India will inadvertently witness and experience the intense confrontations in the region.

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Crucial Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections

South Asia has become seat for high stake geopolitics. Nearly all the countries in the region have embraced democracy. But the fledging democratic institutions are still grappling with political crisis and conundrum. The constitutional crisis in Sri Lanka, military intervention in Pakistan’s electoral process and imposition of state of emergency in Maldives this year stands testimony to this observation. Bangladesh, the South West neighbour of India with which the country shares over 4000 km border is going to polls on December 30^th.  Bangladesh which is liberated in 1971 witnessed 19 coups, authoritarian leaderships and martial law till 1996.   Sadly, even now elections are marred by violence.  As the country prepares for the 11^th Parliamentary elections for choosing 350 members for the Jagtiyo-Sansad (House of the Nation) Election commission has ordered deployment of troops to ensure conduct of free and fair polls.

Unlike the last elections in 2014, when BNP (Bangladesh Nationalist Party) has boycotted the polls, this year the contest is going to be intense. As a pre-condition, BNP demanded conduct of elections under a neutral, caretaker government and release of its leader Begum Khaleda Zia who is now serving jail sentence for embezzlement of funds. Except shifting of election by a week, none of the demands were accepted. Realising that it hardly has any choice, the principal opposition party BNP known for its strong links with fundamentalist organisation, Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) is getting ready for elections. Hence the elections are not going to be a cake-walk for Awami League (AL) led by Sheikh Hasina, daughter of Bangabhandu, founder of Bangladesh, Mujibur Rahman. Struggling hard for political relevance, BNP is now determined to give a tough fight to AL. It must be noted that for the first time in Bangladesh history, elections are not conducted by a caretaker government.

Pro-India Awami League is going to polls with coalition partners Jatiya Party of HM Ershad, former President of Bangladesh, an Islamist party Hejafat-e-Islam and Bikalpdhara Bangladesh party. BNP is going to enter electoral fray after a gap of five years is allied with Jatiya Okiya Front (United National Front), led by Dr Kamal Hossain of Gono Forum. Earlier AL and BNP are clearly distinguished as pro-Liberation, secular front and anti-liberation, Islamic front. In the current elections both parties allied with a coalition of parties with varied distinctions and eventually inherited bunch of contradictions. 

BNP, a pro-Pakistan party, joined hands with Hossain known for his secular credentials and JeI, an avowed fundamentalist Islamic group. Hossein is known to be close to Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and is believed to have played a crucial role in shaping AL after Hasina’s exile in 1981. He formed a four-party alliance just before elections. So far, Bangladesh witnessed a turf battle between two begums which seemed to be more or less evenly poised. But the situation is markedly different now.

Overzealous Hasina, in a bid to contain split of Islamist votes joined hands with radical Islamist group. In the recently held local elections, huge number of Islamists were elected on AL’s ticket. This essentially quashed the hopes of Hasina maintaining the secular credence in Bangladesh.

BNP and its core supporter JeI are fighting for political survival. BNP is hamstrung by lack of leadership with Khaleda Zia serving sentence. Her son, Tarique Rahman convicted for assassination bids against Shiekh Hasina is at large and overseeing the poll preparations from London. His candidature has been disqualified by election commission. In absence of experienced leadership, JeI have taken over the charge of selecting and fielding candidates. JeI was banned in the initial days of Bangladesh formation. But subsequently, political parties lifted the ban. It has become crucial partner of BNP in 2001 and its chief and general secretary served as ministers as well. JeI was deregistered by election commission in 2013. Following High Court’s intervention, the party’s candidates are now contesting in polls as independents. Majority of its cadres are facing charges of war crimes are either sentenced or serving life terms for siding with the Pakistani troops during 1971 Bangladesh Liberation war. JeI which has strong links with Pakistan ISI handlers have good support in the border regions. It has fielded candidates in 25 of the 300 seats under the BNP’s party symbol of sheaf of paddy leaf. Even as AL is wary of JeI making electoral gains, reports of Pakistan meddling in Bangladesh elections exacerbated its fears.

In the run up to elections, a seven-minute leaked conversation between BNP leader Khandaker Moshraff Hossain and Pakistan ISI officer with references to use of Chinese money surfaced. BNP is known to have close ties with Pakistan and this critical evidence added more heft to the suspicions of the ruling party. Around the same news of Charge d affaires, of Pakistan High Commission in Dhaka, Shah Faisal Kakar and defense adviser Brigadier Kamran Nazir Malik met three members of BNP standing committee- Mirza Abbas, Aminul Haq and Khandaker Moshraff Hossain. Alleged reference to Chinese money has become a cause for concern for India given its implicit role in recently concluded Maldivian and Sri Lankan political crisis. India’s fears don’t seem far-fetched considering $34 billion Chinese investments and 25% stakes in Bangladesh stock exchange, Bangladesh is second largest recipient of Chinese money after Pakistan in South Asia. Meddling by external agents and vested interests in elections are commonly reported in Western countries. But countries in South Asia are now finding place in such reports recently. Given, Pakistan’s deep roots in Bangladesh and its all-weather friendship with China, allegations of external meddling can’t be ruled out.

The relations between Pakistan and Bangladesh have been heading south. Recently Bangladesh refused to accept Saqlain Syedah as Pakistani High Commissioner following reports of the diplomatic office being used for fostering ISI activities. Bangladesh even supported India’s stand of boycotting the SAARC Summit at Islamabad in 2016 protesting Pakistan’s hand in terror activities. Brutal terror attack in Dhaka high-end eatery in 2016 investigations revealed Pakistan’s role. Ever since Sheikh Hasina has unequivocally expressed serious objections to Pakistan’s interference in Bangladesh. These reports have certainly strengthened the claims of Hasina.  

AL on the other hand, is facing the heat anti-incumbency and rumours of corruption. People are growing wary of Hasina’s growing authoritarian streak of overbearing surveillance, crackdown on freedom of speech, detention of journalists and activists at the drop of the hat. Airing concerns over instances of intimidation of opposition leaders since September Human Rights Watch raised alarm over existing repressive atmosphere in Bangladesh. Burgeoning reports of false and fabricated cases slapped against the opposition parties, protestors, disappearance and death of poll agents clearly threatened the credibility of elections. The international forum called upon countries to ensure free and fair elections. As a matter of fact, observers from 16 countries have arrived in Bangladesh for conduct of violence free polls.

Despite Hasina’s severe crackdown on dissent, a vast majority hail her decade regime for phenomenal economic growth. For the year 2017-18 Bangladesh recorded 7.86% growth rate, higher than all the developing countries. Country’s economic progress registered upward trajectory since 2008 aided by steadily growing manufacturing sector. The country which is often in the headlines for natural disasters reached a historical moment this year, by graduating from the “least developed country” to a “developing economy” this elevation is an outcome of the broader ambitious vision of Sheikh Hasina. Buoyed by the strong economic growth, people are keen on re-electing Hasina and the party is banking on its developmental agenda to get back to power an unprecedented third time.

But bogged down by allegations of creeping authoritarianism, AL is revoking liberation war and doggedly hunting down on the worst perpetrators of the genocide (opposition BNP & JeI leaders for collaborating with Razakars). Simultaneously AL is seeking the apology of Pakistan for its excesses during the liberation movement. Conforming to worse doubts of people BNP’s formidable supporter JeI is calling for realignment with Pakistan. As a result, BNP is increasingly viewed as party inimical to country’s progress and development and pro-Pakistan.

Despite its contradictions, election analysts contend that BNP would fare well in the border regions while AL will be voted to power in all likelihood for its initiatives, stability and pragmatic economic policies. Though people are miffed by AL’s high-handed politics, muzzling of press, free speech and even patronising criminal elements, BNP as an alternative seems to be worse. But some strategists believe that BNP still has a larger ground presence and support. Barred from elections at the eleventh hour, BNP is expected to garner the sympathy vote of people. Further, BNP’s revival through coalition partners is believed to have reintegrated the core religious forces in the country. Going by Bangladesh’s electoral history  where parties won elections by a margin of 2-3% votes, the scales can tilt in either direction.

Implications for India

Living up to the pledge of cracking down on anti-India terror modules operating from Bangladesh, after taking charge in 2008, Hasina dismantled the terror camps along the Indo-Bangladesh border. Insurgency activities in the North-East have significantly reduced and Indian intelligence agencies credit Awami League for this marked difference. Besides, in the past ten years, India and Bangladesh significantly ramped up cooperation. In 2015, both countries peacefully resolved the four-decade long Land Boundary Agreement and maritime dispute. While the Teesta waters issue still remains a bone of contention, both parties have agreed not to gloat about their differences. Energy cooperation, connectivity and infrastructure development projects received a major boost under Hasina’s regime. Operationalisation of bus, train and river ports between the countries have improved people to people connect. Indian private investments in Bangladesh are now worth $10 billion. New Delhi has extended $7.5 billion credit line for infrastructure projects in Bangladesh. Above all, Bangladesh is essential cog for India’s Act East Policy. Though the bilateral ties have improved significantly there are still major irritants to this relationship. India’s take on Rohingya deportation, NRC in Assam, tariff and non-tariff barriers imposed on Bangladeshi goods are stoking anti-India feelings in Bangladesh. Given, AL’s zero tolerance for terrorism, a third term for Hasina would bode well for India as opposed to BNP which is a Pakistan apologist. While a stable and sustaining democracy country in immediate neighbourhood can be an asset for India, a sweeping victory for AL would shrink space for political dissent in Bangladesh.

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After drawing blank in assembly elections BJP must reinvent itself for 2019 general elections

The much-awaited results for the five assembly elections are finally out. Results for the state of Madhya Pradesh are formally declared after almost 24 hours of the counting, turning it into a longest battle in the EVM era. BJP completely lost election battle in the Hindi heartland, which is its strongest base. Congress convincingly handed it over 3-0 defeat. Touted as the semi-finals before the general elections 2019, the outcomes of the results would indeed offer great insights about the perception of people towards the Modi regime as well. Undeniably the dark cloud of defeat had brought to fore the glaringly defects of the BJP machinery. Despite being the World’s largest political party with over 12 crore primary membership and well-oiled machinery of ground workers, BJP failed to set a narrative. While party cadres successfully mobilised people to vote, unlike their peers in leftist parties, they couldn’t highlight accomplishments of respective state governments. This electoral drubbing has come as a wakeup call to Modi-Shah duo whose electoral invincibility rattled the opposition. In the past four and half years, Prime Minister Modi through meaningful interventions brought about transformative changes in several sectors infusing fresh energy and driving the nation towards larger economic development. With his unstinted efforts and rigorous schedule of seventeen work hours a day, Modi evolved as towering personality with no political equals. Despite these positive attributes. Some thing seems to be gravely amiss.

BJP must be commended for its tough fight in Madhya Pradesh. Notwithstanding the 15 years of incumbency, BJP garnered 0.1% more votes than Congress but narrowly missed the majority mark. Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan will forever be remembered for his great contributions in pulling out the state from the BIMARU status. By bringing about new reforms in agriculture, he catapulted its ailing economy from financial throes. Though people widely acknowledge his phenomenal work the indifference and callousness of some legislators frustrated people. As elections neared, based on ground reports, Chouhan made desperate attempts replace the non-performing legislators with fresh faces. Though this move has contained some losses, it was rather insufficient. Even he made frantic moves to woo backward communities, promised to double the farm prices and announced several sops to win support of people.

In Rajasthan BJP managed to put up a respectable show despite the voter apathy. The loss in terms of absolute numbers from 165 seats in 2013 to 73 seems glaring, the marginal difference in votes polled between BJP and Congress is 1% or turns out be 1 lakh votes. Given the historical record of voting patterns of electorate rewarding BJP and Congress alternatively this may not be really of grave worry. But the issue of agrarian crisis is real and central government must come out with some strategy to alleviate this problem before the general elections. The mobilisation of the party cadre by the central command months before elections has saved party from the disgrace of being completely wiped out in the assembly elections. Besides the complaints of the leaders like Vasundhara Raje being not accessible to party cadres must be addressed and possibly the burden of responsibility should be shifted to shoulders of imaginative youth leaders.

 In Chhattisgarh, after three successful terms by the longest serving Chief Minister, Dr Raman Singh, the party faced a massive defeat. The huge vote share difference of 10% reflected people’s desperation for change. The state elections offered many lessons for the party. Though there is no denying that Singh made a stellar contribution in terms of developing a robust public distribution system for the newly carved out state of Chhattisgarh, he failed to reinvent himself. Interestingly even the state turned a blind eye to rapidly changing demographic composition of the state. The conversion factories had a free run. But the three successful tenures of BJP regime kept the red terror under control. Especially the state made significant progress in the last four and half years, in restricting the purview of red corridor to few pockets. With the change of guard, the menace extremist left wing violence might intensify. Reclaiming the support and trust of people of Chhattisgarh should therefore be among the top priorities of BJP.

The only saving grace for the largest political party of India in youngest state of India, Telangana has been s respectable win of strong Hindutva advocate, Raja Singh Lodh from the Goshamahal constituency. He defeated the nearest TRS (Telangana Rashtra Samithi) candidate by a margin of 16,000 votes. BJP vote share in the state is mere 7%. Interestingly, MIM with 2.7% vote share managed to win 7 seats. TRS riding on the sentiment of statehood, swept the state. The party must indeed be thankful to Chandra Babu Naidu, TDP supremo who joined hands with Congress, its arch-rival, CPI and other local parties to launch Mahakutami as an alternative to TRS. Counting on the support of the settlers from Andhra, Naidu dreamt of making big gains in Telangana.  But people outrightly rejected TDPs politics and voted TRS enmasse. TRS gained immensely from this negative vote. But in the process, BJP’s poll prospects took a beating for failing to present its story in a way people can understand and appreciate. Besides, settlers found TRS as better alternative than Congress or TDP which are brazenly casteist.

MNF’s (Mizo National Front), an ally of BJP victory in Mizoram paved way for a Congress-mukt North East. Facing a decade long anti-incumbency, Congress suffered a humiliating defeat. BJP made its debut in the Christian majority state by polling 8% votes. The Congress chief minister of Mizoram lost in both constituencies he contested.

The stunning defeat for BJP in five assembly elections months before the general elections came as a big jolt. For some time, people have been drawing similarities between the NDA-I of Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Modi’s NDA-II to alert the party of plausible oversights and of unwarranted hubris. As a party which have grown from electoral strength to two parliamentary must now seriously introspect and possibly charter its game plan.

Firstly, BJP has the worst PR machinery which is totally incapable of presenting a narrative. While major financial reforms have hurt the core voter base of the party, the problem is exacerbated by inability of party foot soldiers who failed to convey the intent of the leadership in an effective way. 

Secondly, the political spectrum of India is tilted towards leftist ideology. Hence a right-wing party like BJP must work doubly hard and be very active in setting a narrative. A dedicated team of intellectuals effectively floating the ideology in a nuanced way should be pressed into action to highlight the achievement and accomplishments of the government.

Thirdly, it failed to identify the political vacuum in some states. After the decimation of the Congress from the twin Telugu states, its traditional strong holds, BJP showed little or no interest in making strong inroads into the South bound states.

Fourthly, despite tag of pro-Hindutva party, in the past four and half years, it has alienated itself from the Hindu causes. It hardly evinced interest in standing up for the cause of its dedicated voter base. Donning the mantle of secularism, BJP ambitiously aimed to burnish its image has the most committed secular apostle. Its trepidation and hesitation in taking unequivocal stance on issues like Sabarimala and Ayodhya has even punctured its image. Its strong credentials as supporter of Hindutva causes while in opposition as opposed to its subtle approach when in government confused people. People are now increasingly distrustful of BJP’s commitment.

Fifthly, BJP’s overambitious approach to showcase itself as saviour of minorities amidst orchestrated global tirade against its regime by vested interests has irked people. India has always been inclusive and there was absolutely no need for flaunt its attributes. But government’s indifference to rein in on foreign-funded institutions working in India with nefarious designs has caused disgruntlement among the majoritarian community.

Sixthly, one of the major poll planks of Modi during the 2014 elections has been rooting out corruption. Modi has delivered on this promise and till now there isn’t even a single charge of corruption against the government and its cabinet. But people are miffed by Modi’s inability to arrest, prosecute and jail the corrupt politicians of the scam-ridden UPA regime.

Seventhly, despite its commitment to respect the values of the Indic civilisation. Government hasn’t made even a single attempt to change the academic curriculum replete of twisted, distorted and viciously convoluted derision of India. Not even a single word has been changed in the text books that abuse the country, its long history, tradition and its glorious civilisation wealth.

Eightly, government’s apathy towards gaurakshaks and frailty in going by the false propaganda peddled by the vested groups and acceding to their false narratives without even investigation of individual cases has alienated the dedicated Hindu groups from the party. 

While the results of the assembly elections may not be indicative of the people’s resentment towards Prime Minister Modi. But with general elections few months away, BJP can’t be complacent. It must revitalise, revive and recharge the party cadres with new energy. Besides, it must strongly present its case as why it must be re-elected and why the government needs yet another term. Quintessentially, perception is the key. BJP must be able to present its story in an effective way. Else all the hard efforts of the party which has been working as a strong team infusing best of their energies, potentials will go down the drain. Also, with Congress on strong wicket, it is but inevitable that Rahul Gandhi will be projected as the prime ministerial candidate. Enthused by the resurgence, Congress might be reluctant to make concessions for other political parties or regional outfits. Similarly, TRS has been voicing for an anti-Congress, anti-BJP front for the upcoming elections and after its stupendous victory, it would push for an alliance with like-minded parties. Likely, the opposition parties, which were inclined to form a combined front against Modi till December 10^th might now part ways and align themselves into two fronts. BJP must capitalise on the opposition disunity through meticulous planning, mobilisation of workers and regrouping with friends. As a last-ditch attempt, BJP can bolster its chances of forming government in 2019 by passing some crucial legislations like long pending Satyapal Private Members Bill and possibly an ordinance on Ayodhya in the winter session of parliament which began yesterday.

People have pinned great hopes on Prime Minister Modi. The absolute majority conferred upon BJP in 2014 is a proof of people’s trust in the party led by Narendra Modi. Besides, inclusive economic growth, the land of Sanatana Dharma is yearning for a leader who can uphold the vitality of this hand.  BJP has shown promise of change and as it begins its preparation for the mega battle. It would bode if it can reflect on the famous Uttara Speech of Sri Aurobindo in 1909 where he says “I say no longer say that nationalism is a creed, a religion, a faith; I say that it is Sanatana Dharma which for us is nationalism. The Hindu nation was born with Sanatana Dharma, with it, it moves, and with it, it declines, and if Sanatana Dharma were capable of perishing, with the Sanatana Dharma it would perish. The Sanatana Dharma, that is nationalism”.  At the same time, keeping prejudices, narrow sectarian differences at bay the majoritarian community must make an unbiased assessment of political parties before exercising their votes in the interest of the country at large.

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Has India inadvertently walked into Pakistan’s emotive religious diplomacy trap? Part-2

Indeed, India handed over Pakistan a diplomatic victory by sending two cabinet ministers for the ground laying ceremony. Pakistan rightly used this occasion to publicise this issue in portraying itself as peace mongering nation. With right PR and objectively choosing the propagandists/Pakistani leaning journalists from Indian media, Islamabad diligently enhanced the global visibility of the event. Taking cues from India’s tacit approval as a green signal for dialogue, Pakistan foreign office announced that it would invite India for SAARC summit at Islamabad. SAARC summit of Islamabad 2016 was stalled after India refused to participate after Pakistani trained terrorists attacked Indian military base at Uri killing 18 security personnel. Soon, Bhutan, Afghanistan and Sri Lanka backed down. The meet stood cancelled.

Following reports of Pakistani invitation for SAARC, India called bluff of Islamabad’s posturing and PR stating, “India is not a special invitee that Pakistan has the discretion to invite us. India is integral to SAARC”.  Sushma Swaraj clarified, “For many years the Indian government has been asking for Kartarpur corridor, only now Pakistan responded positively. It doesn’t mean the bilateral dialogue will start because of this, terror and talks can’t go together. The moment Pakistan stops terrorist activities in India, dialogue can start. But the dialogue is not connected with only Kartarpur corridor”.

At the ground-breaking ceremony in Pakistan on November 28^th, Congress leader Sidhu who went on a personal capacity hogged the limelight for his effortless ease in praising the Pakistani leadership. He went overboard saying, “there are tremendous possibilities in this corridor, only a political will was required which has been shown by an angel (Imran Khan) across the border and as well as government here”. Back in India, Congress missed no opportunity in complimenting Sidhu for his pioneering efforts in making the Kartarpur corridor proposal a reality. Known for his eccentricities, in a public meeting at the ceremony, Sidhu made deliberate references to Rafale deal. Soon, Imran Khan used this occasion to rake up Kashmir issue. Irresponsible, immature and irrelevant remarks of Khan attested his stature of puppet of Pakistan military.

Later MEA issued a statement objecting Khan’s reference to Kashmir “It is deeply regrettable that the Prime Minister of Pakistan chose to politicise the pious occasion meant to realise the long pending demand of the Sikh community to develop Kartarpur corridor by making unwarranted reference to Jammu and Kashmir which is an integral and inalienable part of India”. With these unwarranted references, Khan has unwittingly unravelled the nefarious intentions of Pakistan in accepting India’s request for opening Kartarpur Sahib shrine for Sikh pilgrims. By ridiculing India and Prime Minister Modi, Khan has made a spectacle out of the issue which is supposed to foster good will and friendship between both nations.

The presence of Pakistan army chief Qamar Bajwa at the ground laying ceremony underlined the centrality of military’s role in the entire game plan. Khalistani leader in Pakistan, Gopal Chawla, a close aid of Hafiz Saeed mastermind of 26/11 attended the event and posed with Sidhu. Sidhu’s unusual bonhomie and servility in Pakistan sparked a massive outrage. Following intense backlash from media, Congress which has earlier backed Sidhu eventually distanced from his comments. Coming under intense fire, Sidhu in an interview claimed that Congress high command, Rahul Gandhi and Ahmed Patel have arranged a special flight for him to Pakistan. Connecting these dots, it is now amply clear at the behest of Congress party, Sidhu has been throwing barbs at Modi and even raked Rafale issue.

In 2015 Mani Shankar Aiyar on his visit to Pakistan at a panel discussion in Pakistani Channel responding to a question on impasse between both countries said, “The first and foremost thing is to remove Modi. Only then talks can move forward. We have to wait for four more years. They (panellists) are all optimist and that they can move forward when Modi Sahab is there, but I don’t think so”. Aiyar’s remarks and efforts to seek support from Pakistan to remove Modi created a furore. Though Congress dismissed the issue, the event left a trail of doubt. Since September Pakistan has been backing Rahul Gandhi for the prime ministerial post of India openly on twitter. A month of this campaign, BJP IT cell alleged that  Congress parties has launched a “Desh Bachao and Modi hatao” facebook ads campaign in Pakistan and soliciting Pakistan’s support.  Now Sidhu’s open admission suffice to say that Congress is seeking help of Pakistani establishment to topple Modi government. Congress party’s brazen politicking with enemy state known for its anti-India agenda casts serious doubts on its credentials and commitment towards nation’s interests. Before Congress’s intention be given a benefit of doubt, Pakistan foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi’s boastful statement “Imran Khan’s googly has forced the Indian government to send its ministers across the border” at Khan’s 100-day celebration into power surmises that Kartarpur corridor was a bait.

In 2010, Chairman of the Pakistan Evacuee Trust Property Board Chairman, Sayed Asif Hashmi offered to complete all modalities for construction of Kartarpur corridor but the Congress party which is in power didn’t respond. Even in May 2017, the parliamentary committee on external affairs ruled out any agreement on Kartarpur. But undeniably, this time around Pakistani leadership and military threw entire weight around the Kartarpur issue since engagement with India has become a “requirement”. They created buzz in the media with trusted emissaries and loyal propaganda machinery. India blissfully unaware of Pakistan’s treacherous plot had bit the bullet.

Pakistan is a habitual offender and India must be extremely cautious in handling this entire issue. People to people interaction and exchange is going on for several years through the Lahore bus services and special permits to PoK. With opening of Kartarpur corridor Punjab will be perilously close to becoming a strategically vulnerable region. Pakistan’s posturing and real intentions are crystal clear. By allowing visa-free access of Indian citizens to Kartarpur Gurudwara, Pakistan is eyeing the possibility of resumption of comprehensive bilateral dialogue with India and burnish its image as a “responsible country”.

The proposal for construction and developing Kartarpur corridor is truly an event of celebration given it religious significance to Sikh community and the landmark decision must be hailed. But Pakistan which is known for its vicious hatred towards India is leveraging this emotive issue to signal dawn of “thaw in relations” to global community. For decades, ISI has been supporting, funding and assisting the Khalistani movement to wean Sikh community from India. While the phenomenal sacrifices of Sikhs and their valiant contributions towards India’s development, progress and nation building remain unparalleled, Pakistan is trying to stoke secessionist tendencies. Indeed, Pakistan makes no bones about its intention of reviving Sikh militancy. ISI which manages the Sikh shrines is innocuously turning these places into active grounds for Khalistani propaganda.

Modi government’s is facing ire of strategists for sacrificing the strategic security in lieu of electoral gains. Pakistan for all its grand standing of rapprochement with India through religious diplomacy high on perception, is exceedingly short of action. There is not even a shred of evidence to show any change in its policy towards India. It continues to be a safe haven of terror elements. It hasn’t abandoned proxy war, the intrinsic component of its strategic doctrine. On the 10^th anniversary of 26/11 Pakistan proudly announced its role in bloody massacre. Govt officials shared stage with terrorists. Pakistan hasn’t brought terror masterminds to justice. There is no evidence of any change in Pakistan’s discourse towards India to bring about transformation in its relations. Essentially it turns out that Karatpur corridor is yet another contraption in the treacherous plan of bleeding India by thousand cuts. After reckless unleashing of its strategic assets, militant outfits, Pakistan is now resorting to this seemingly innocuous religious diplomacy. Husain Haqqani former Pakistani ambassador to US postulated that ideological pillars of Pakistan are Islamism and anti-Indianism. While liberal brigade might continue to expound the potential of religious diplomacy pragmatism dictates caution.

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Has India Inadvertently walked into Pakistan's emotive religious diplomacy trap? Part-I

Pakistan’s renewed pitch and new-found enthusiasm for religious diplomacy with India found a new voice on the eve of Imran Khan’s swearing in ceremony. Islamabad found suitable emissary for their religious diplomacy in Navjot Singh Sidhu who attended oath-taking ceremony of Khan. Exuberant Sidhu who began singing paeans of his Pakistani friends after his return disclosed to media about Pakistan Army Chief Qamar Bajwa’s intention to open Dera Baba Nanak (Kartarpur) corridor for the 550^th Guru Nanak’s birth anniversary. Kartarpur Sahib, one of the most sacred places for Sikhs in Narowal Pakistan is 4 km from the International Border. Till now Indian Sikhs had to be contended at the mere glance of the revered place through a high-powered telescope on the Indo-Pakistan border. Atal Bihari Vajpayee who carried a message of peace on his Lahore bus ride to Pakistan in 1999 first proposed this idea of opening the Kartarpur corridor. In 2000, Pakistan agreed to allow Sikh pilgrims a visa-free visit to the shrine by constructing a bridge to connect the Indian side to the Gurudwara. Since then both countries never had any agreement in principle. 

After eighteen long years, Pakistan began to make overtures to India through the garrulous Congress leader Sidhu who overnight became the messiah of bilateral peace initiatives. Islamabad’s ploy of exploiting the sensitive cultural and religious sentiments of Indians and more specifically Sikhs made Indian strategists circumspect of Pakistan’s intentions. Neck deep in economic crisis, facing international alienation and grey-listed by FATF (Financial Action Task Force) for failing to implement money laundering legislations, Pakistan is seeking a truce with India. More than three months into power, Imran Khan has been desperately trying to keep Pakistani economy sinking under the burden of bad debts, depleting forex reserves and falling rupee. After swearing in as Prime Minister Khan travelled to Saudi Arabia twice seeking funds. Amidst string of cancellations by high-profile industrialists and heads of state to the “Future Investment Initiative”, touted as “Davos of the Desert” held in the aftermath of journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s brutal death, hard-pressed for finances, Khan attended the meet. Soon he embarked on a five-day foreign visit to China for financial assistance. Khan was denied funds but both countries signed slew of agreements to strengthen solidarity and friendship. Similarly, Pakistan reached out to UAE which offered some help. In the meanwhile, the visiting FATF delegation not satisfied with Pakistan’s efforts to curb terror recommended its inclusion in the grey list.  In September acceding to Pakistan’s request India initially agreed for a dialogue between Foreign Ministers along the sidelines of UNGA meetings. Within 24 hours India cancelled the proposed meet after Pakistan released a postal stamp to honour terrorist Burhan Wani and brutal killing of security personnel patrolling on the Indian side. Pakistan cried foul and Khan tweeted, “disappointed at the arrogant and negative response by India to my call for resumption of the peace dialogue. However, in all my life I have come across small men occupying big offices who don’t have the vision to see the larger picture” in an ominous reference to Prime Modi. All these incidents reiterate that Pakistan is desperately trying all tricks in its book to bring the country from isolation and economic distress.

Not just India even US vexed up by Pakistan’s inaction and double game US threatened to block financial assistance. The relations were severely strained. Just before Mike Pompeo’s visit to Pakistan, as if to assure its commitment towards fighting terror elements in Afghanistan, Islamabad announced death of Jalaluddin Haqqani, founder of Afghan and Pakistan Taliban. Over decades, Pakistan has mastered subterfuge and trickery. Now its cursory measures towards curbing terror measures are not taken in good stride. Despite serious differences with US, Pakistan is trying to woo the US since its nod is mandatory to avail IMF assistance. Pakistan for the 12^th time has approached IMF for financial bailout package to keep its economy afloat.  A fortnight ago, severely miffed President Trump said, “Pakistan didn’t do a damn thing for us”. As per PTI reports, it is now learnt that US has suspended $3 billion financial assistance to Pakistan this year. Pakistan’s global reputation is plummeting. Islamabad is making desperate attempts to resurrect its international image. At this juncture, Indian government sent a request for construction Kartarpur Corridor from Dera Baba Nanak in Gurdaspur district to Gurudwara Darbar Sahib Kartarpur on banks of river Ravi to Pakistan.  It stated, “The Kartarpur Corridor will be implemented as an integrated development project with government of India funding, to provide smooth and easy passage, with all the modern amenities. Government of India will put in place suitable facilities for smooth passage of pilgrims. Government of Pakistan will be urged to recognise the sentiments of Sikh communities to develop a corridor with suitable facilities in their territory as well”. Pakistan immediately approved India’s request.

For decades, Sikhs have been demanding the construction of Kartarpur corridor and a nod from both governments was hailed by international community. Along with its request to the Pakistan government India conveyed its apprehensions, “despite the harassment that pilgrims face on the Pakistani side, with the Khalistani posters or through the lack of access to consular officials, Sikh pilgrims continue to make this difficult journey. Our proposal is so that the burden of pilgrims can be eased significantly”. This statement underscores India’s scepticism towards Pakistan. But went ahead with this decision to honour the sentiments of Sikhs.

Government’s “landmark” decision evoked flurry of responses. Alyssa Ayres termed “this move will generate good will and help keep bilateral relations steady”. Sreemoy Talukdar of First Post, wrote, “it would be a shame if domestic political considerations lead to strategic vulnerability”. With elections around the corner, it would be anybody’s guess that ruling party would easily succumb to such pressure. But aside these political considerations, it a fact that despite being labelled as “nationalist party”, BJP at the helm of the affairs have displayed extraordinary will and zeal to build bridges of friendship with Pakistan. In his article, “A bridge too long” for TOI, former ambassador Vivek Katju recalled the enthusiasm of Atal Bihari Vajpayee who travelled to Lahore on bus with a message of peace and proposal to open the Kartarpur corridor. But within months, Pakistan reciprocated India’s friendly gesture with a perfidious Kargil war. After twenty years, Prime Minister Modi reposed similar hope and invoked fall of Berlin wall to reiterate the transformative nature of his government’s decision on Kartarpur. But the moot point remains is Pakistan worthy of India’s generosity? Going by Pakistan’s record of perfidy, duplicity, subterfuge and lies during the past seven decades, government’s overdrive appears to be misplaced and ill conceived.

The massive decision on Kartarpur has come on a day when India protested Pakistan government for preventing entry of Indian diplomats into the Nankana Sahib Gurudwara and Dera Sacha Sauda. Also, when Punjab police investigation have confirmed Pakistani links of the suspects involved in the grenade attacks on the Nirankari Ashram near Amritsar that killed three persons and left 20 injured. Pakistan’s relentless attacks amidst India’s inability to fathom its treachery is forcing people to question frailty of government in repeating endless mistakes of history? Pakistan has penchant for inciting communal disharmony and stoking secessionist passions. Even its role in revival of the Khalistani movement is incontrovertibly established. Hence government’s misplaced judgement of Kartarpur corridor adding a modicum of stability seemed fallacious.

Above all, the inexpiable insensitivity of holding the ground-breaking ceremony corridor on the Indian side at Dera Baba Nanak, Gurdaspur on 26^th November by Vice-President Venkaiah Naidu and Punjab Chief Minister Amarinder Singh has added dubious dimensions to the whole exercise. Even after 10 years of the most brutal 26/11 terror attacks while victims still await justice, Indian government thanked the Pakistan side for accepting India’s proposal, who perpetrated the crime. The grievous oversight of policy makers and blindsided approach towards symbolisms reflected the indifference of the current regime. Modi regime has by and large added a fresh dynamism and momentum to Indian foreign policy. But its policy towards Pakistan characterised by flip-flops, somersaults and inconsistencies has given Islamabad enough room to outmanoeuvre Indian strategies.

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