The assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana coming
months after BJP’s massive mandate in Lok Sabha has been a closely watched
affair. Over four months into new tenure, the NDA government through its
impactful economic reforms, triple talaq bill and the iconic revocation of
Article 370 BJP proved its mettle by fulfilling its poll promises. By earning
the richly deserved pole position garnering a huge mandate in the past four
decades, BJP has indeed, raised the bar.
At the time of the elections, with results still trickling
in, BJP-Sena combined had a smooth sail in the elections, Manohar Lal Khattar
government in Haryana is having a roller coaster ride struggling to reach the
majority mark. As has been evident, Indian elections analysts had different
benchmarks for different parties in calling the electoral victory. While the
Congress was always given a free pass and often praised for their moral
victories in the elections. A victory with a simple majority for BJP is viewed
with scepticism. This has been the narrative of the Indian media which had
different bench marks.
Some over enthusiastic poll analysts began to term elections
results as referendum on NDA government’s constitutional amendment on Kashmir. Clearly
the assembly elections are about the local issues. Indian electorate have
always delineated state issues with national issues and time effectively. Time
and again they voted for different parties of choice in the simultaneous Lok
Sabha and Assembly elections. So before passing the buck and holding the
Modi-Shah responsible for the sub-optimal performance of BJP in the state
elections, it is time to analyse why the state leaders failed to win the
confidence of the people. Alternatively, it must be borne in mind that
incumbency wave would always have an uncanny way of denting the electoral
outcome.
In both the states the incumbent BJP regimes were faced with
the task of defending their mandate. All the major exit polls analysis baring
Axis predicted a huge victory for BJP in two states. In Maharashtra, BJP contested
164 seats and managed to win around 100 seats with a strike rate of 60% as
opposed to Shiv Sena’s 46%. Interestingly, Shiv Sena is hailed for its stellar
performance; BJP is asked to do soul searching. In view of high level of
performance expected for BJP, Maharashtra state unit must do the “chintan” for
its electoral losses.
Analysts lamented that too much centralisation of power with
BJP central leadership took a toll on state elections. But the contrary is true.
Devendra Fadanavis in the last five years has emerged as strong leader and
successfully overcome the testing times of protests for Maratha reservations, farmers
agitation and the orchestrated Bhima-Koregoan protests. Setting an ambitious
target of $1 trillion economy, he chartered the course of economic development
for the state. Against several odds
ranging from the shoot outs at Rampal’s Ashram to Jat Agitation, Khattar
managed to survive all the odds and ensured a corruption-free rule. So, by any stretch of imagination, it can’t be
construed a strong central leadership has hampered the evolution of strong BJP
leaders at the state level. But the huge exodus of leaders from other parties
and their eventual assimilation into the BJP has negatively impacted its
performance. Besides, the PMC Bank scam and the contradictory positions of BJP
and Shiv Sena in Aarey Metro shed issue had split the voters. These developments
towards the fag end of elections had some role in electoral mandate.
The election results in Haryana must be a shock and cause of
huge concern. Back in December 2018, BJP swept the mayoral elections winning
all the five corporations with huge margins. Indeed, if the polls are a
reflection of poor performance of Khattar he should have been decimated in the
local elections. While it might be too early to call it, but caste appears to
have played a crucial role in vote consolidation in the state. Being a non-Jat,
Khattar’s choice as a chief ministerial candidate back in 2014 in the
Jat-dominated state raised several eyebrows. But now, the phenomenal rise of
JJP (Jananayak Janata Party), a Jat dominated party which managed to win 11
seats catapulting itself into the enviable “kingmaker” position once again
reiterates the overwhelming influence of caste dynamics in the state elections.
But that doesn’t necessary answer the dismal losses of 7 ministers in state
elections. Hence, the leaders must reflect on these losses and learn from these
defeats.
Another important trend that needs a mention is the
resurgence of Haryana Congress local leadership. For long the dynasty has
side-lined strong local leaders and undermined their role. The complete absence
of the dynasty and the reluctant politician has undoubtedly paved way for
better performance of Congress as against the popular perception of infighting
within the party undercutting its vote share.
It is also argued that GST, slowing economy, unemployment
might have exacerbated the troubles for BJP. Certainly, the results are a
wakeup call to the BJP local leaders. Resting in the laurels earned by the
central leadership, they have become complacent. Assembly elections is a
referendum on the local leadership. BJP is up a huge task in Haryana. In what
can be a recapitulation of Karnataka elections, JJP leader Dushyant Chautala
will extract his pound of flesh to join ranks with Khattar led BJP in the
state. BJP must act swiftly since Congress is openly urging governor to call
JJP for government formation. Campaigning by Modi-Shah can accentuate electoral
gains when they are supplemented by deliverance by local leaders.
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