A retreating America cedes ground to Russia in the Middle East

President Trump’s decision to withdraw American troops from global theatre has been his major electoral plank. After his plans for staged pulling of troops from Afghanistan suffered a setback, gearing up for a re-election in 2020, Trump has turned his attention to American troops stationed in Syria. Since December 2018, Trump has been making claims of American troops victory over IS (Islamic State) in Syria at various platforms. Irked by these premature proclamations even Defence Secretary James Mattis, resigned. Trump persisted with IS elimination claims even when American troops on ground were reluctant to endorse the same. Finally, on March 20^th, he displayed a map showing the areas held by IS and pledged that these areas will be IS-free soon.

Strategic experts dismissed Trump’s boastful claims of crushing IS since the operational area of IS alone has drastically reduced. But IS cadres weren’t eliminated. Moreover, the parties which took on IS hardly bothered to evolve a plan to contain the spread and influence of the vicious ideology and thousands of indoctrinated fighters. Choked by the combined onslaught of various forces, left with no territory, IS fighters simply scattered and laid low. They were waiting for an opportunity to regroup. Trump’s premature decision of pulling US troops and dumping its alliance partners Syrian Kurdish forces, who were instrumental in defeating the IS caliphate and holding IS fighters under captivity is now paving way for IS resurgence. Kurds has been guarding the make-shift confinement centres that lodged over 10,000 fighters. With Kurds forced to defend their territory and no vigil in place, dozens of IS cadres are believed to have escaped the confinements.

In all, Trump’s volte-face of betraying the Kurds, dented flailing American global credibility, IS resurgence and facilitated Russian entry into West Asia. While Trump administration continues to defend its decision and absolves itself of the flagrant Turkish invasion in Syria’s North East, Russia has stepped up its game after the US departure.

Russian troops started patrolling the line between the Turkish and Syrian Armies. Left to fend for itself, Syrian Democratic Forces (YPG) who under attack from the Turkish forces sought the help of Syria. Russia and Iran which supported Assad’s regime dispatched forces to the border area. Since White House’s order of Oct 6^th, Turkey made rapid ground into the areas held by Kurdish forces, attacked five cities. Promising to turn the Syrian-Turkish border area into a “safe zone” where Syrian refugees can be relocated, Turkey bolstered its attack reportedly after getting tipoff from America about the movement of Kurds their former ally. America is reportedly sharing surveillance video under the counter terrorism partnership signed with Turkey in 2016.

Congress rebuked Trump’s irrational move. Under intense pressure Trump announced sanctions on Turkish steel imports and individuals in defence ministry responsible for destabilising the region and threatened to stop negotiations on bilateral trade worth $100 billion. He dispatched Vice-President Pence and Secretary for State Mike Pompeo, NSA Robert O’Brien and offered to mediate.

Trump even shot a letter to Erdogan warning him from slaughtering people. His rather undiplomatic” language soon became viral, devoid of any civility, a visibly annoyed Turkish President reportedly binned it. Clearly, Trump who ordered pulling of American troops after a phone conversation with Erdogan has lost his plot. Tying itself into knots, after hasty withdrawal, America began striking its own bases which served as bunkers and depots for storage of ammunition to render them useless for the new forces entering the region. As a part of US-brokered deal Turkey has agreed to stop the offensive for 120 hours provided the Kurdish forces withdrew from border areas. Turkey reported 20 cases of alleged violations. American troops which allied with SDF have now moved to their base in West Iraq. As opposed to complete withdrawal of US decided to station 200 personnel in Syria to protect the oil reserves from IS. Meanwhile Turkey asserted the five days will witness a temporary pause in Operation Peace Spring launched on Oct 9^th and vowed to “crush” the Kurdish forces.

Turkey’s cold snub to America and outright rejection of ceasefire despite the sanction sword hanging as opposed to acceptance of President Putin’s invitation to visit Russia for discussing Syrian situation exemplified Moscow’s growing influence in the region. Both leaders are now scheduled to meet on October 22^nd at Sochi. With this move Russia has consolidated its position as a mediator between Turkey and Kurdish forces.

Trump’s sudden U-turn comes days ahead of Putin’s visit to Saudi Arabia and UAE. For long, the US is known to be key ally of Arab region. After America’s nefarious intervention in Egypt under Obama regime, its reputation took a hit in the region. Trump’s intransigent position towards Iran and his efforts to isolate Tehran have drawn these countries close to the US. But the ties with Saudi suffered a set back after the US hesitated to overtly support Riyadh in the aftermath of Jamal Khashoggi’s murder. The reticence to retaliate despite tanker attacks and even after shooting US drone deepened Arabs scepticism towards Washington. Trump’s willingness to hold talks with Iran to solve nuclear impasse irked the Arabs further. Trump’s incoherent Iranian policy of “blow hot blow cold” has irrevocably dented the relations. Around the same time, Russia stepped up its trade, defence and economic engagements with the region. It began to make fresh forays into the Arab world.

In 2017 Russia and Saudi Arabia during King Salman’s visit to Moscow, clinched a slew of deals including an agreement on lowering oil production. They bumped up global oil prices to reap financial gains. In the process, Russia not only navigated safely through American sanctions but became closer to Gulf nations. Obama’s trenchant approach gave a reason for Russia to enter Syria in 2015 and bolster Assad’s regime. Iran also backed the regime. Eventually with Iranian and Russian forces effectively combatting the IS, Assad strengthened his army. With America pulling its forces, the hapless Kurds sought the support of Assad and eventually softened claims to the North East region which was inaccessible for Syrian forces. Till recently, North Syria was out of bounds for Assad. With Iran and Russia deploying forces in the border region, Russia now emerged as a major broker. On the contrary, American abandonment made it an untrustworthy ally.

In 2015, Russia and Turkey sparred after Turkey shot down Russian jet over violation of airspace and this enmity exacerbated with the assassination of Russian diplomat in Turkey. Hostilities plagued the bilateral ties for over a year. Soon, Turkey a major NATO ally softened its stance towards Russia after America refused to part with allies YPG, which Turkey believes is a terrorist organisation. Despite their differences over Syria, having strained relations with the US, Turkey expanded ties with Russia and sealed an agreement to buy S-400 Air defence missile system. In August, countries ratcheted up nuclear cooperation giving wings to Turkey’s nuclear aspirations. Russia with smart diplomacy not only became an influential player in the Middle East but by being amenable to various countries it stitched rather unusual friendships.

Interestingly, though Iranian and Russian forces continue to spar in Syria they are on the same side. Iran and Russia have the largest gas reserves. With sanctions in place, Iran lost its dominance in global markets, Russia with second largest reserves is pumping gas to the fullest and filling coffers. Besides, Iran still refuses to forget the old feuds with Russia when it was forced to cede large areas of Armenia and Azerbaijan. America’s loss is Russia’s gain. While Russia lacks the economic clout, through deft diplomatic manoeuvring, it is realising its dreams of gaining access and influence in the Arab world long considered as an American bastion.

While Arab countries may be averse to join hands with Russia to form an anti-Western front, by standing by his ally Assad Russia has established its credibility. Away from the global forum, Russia even initiated peace talks for Syria at Astana in 2018. By putting boots on ground Russia has indeed risked becoming part of the conflicts. Unlike the short-term and quirky America incoherent approach, Russia through shrewd diplomacy and minimal intervention is making unusually bigger gains.

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