The year 2016 started on a dreary note for India. Pathankot
airbase was attacked by Pakistan’s strategic assets, the veritable militant
outfits, on January 2nd. Deep state of Pakistan reciprocated Prime
Minister Modi’s impromptu visit to Lahore the previous week by launching a
brutal an attack on Indian airbase. This event not only sabotaged comprehensive
bilateral talks but also mirrored reluctance of sections of Pakistan
establishment towards peace initiatives. Clandestine attacks provided
opposition enough fodder to denigrate Modi’s Pakistan policy and extinguished
hopes of renewed engagement. Despite the breach of trust, Modi government made
a rare concession of allowing access to Joint Investigation Team (JIT) of
Pakistan containing members of ISI to investigate the Pathankot attack. In
return Pakistan promised to reciprocate Indian largesse by providing access to
Indian Investigation team to terrorist havens in Pakistan. Islamabad reneged
and admonished New Delhi for staging the attack to tarnish the reputation of
Pakistan. Smitten by obfuscation of Pakistan, Modi hardened his stance and
chasm between India and Pakistan widened. Pakistan continued to intensify its
proxy war against India. This trend was reflected in record number of ceasefire
violations and border infiltrations throughout the year. Surprise attacks on
armed personnel increased, Pampore incident stands testimony to this changed
tactics of Pakistan. Killing of Hizb-ul-Mujahadeen leader Burhan Wani tactically
changed the dynamics of Indo-Pakistan relations. Turning this into a moot
point, Pakistan glorified Wani and bestowed martyr status. Portraying him as a
“good terrorist” carried out high decibel campaign at UN, UN Human Rights
Council, Nuclear Suppliers Group and OIC. While India had punctured Pakistan’s
vilification, Indian resolve of isolating Pakistan began to gain more momentum.
Under the guise of azadi, Pakistan
orchestrated an insurgency in the Valley through its stooges that lasted for
almost four months. Life in the valley was crippled. Pakistani apologists in
the Valley instigated youth into stone pelting resulting in volatile
civilian-military relations.
India sharpened its diplomatic weapons and began unraveling
the trouble fomented by cross border terrorism nurtured by Pakistan at
international fora. India started reviewing and questioning the Indus Water
Treaty (IWT) and began contemplating on using its waters fully. Islamabad was
to hold the SAARC summit for the year 2016. In the spirit of regional
cooperation, at the height of insurgency in Kashmir valley, India sent Home
Minister to attend a conference of Ministers of Interior Affairs at Islamabad.
Rajnath Singh was welcomed by protests organized by Masood Azhar in Islamabad.
Miffed by ill treatment and media blackout, India expressed its inability to
join other rounds of SAARC summit. Joining the chorus, all other members stood
by India. Afghanistan, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Maldives and finally
Nepal backed out forcing the Pakistan to cancel the summit. With Pakistan
acting as an obstructionist, experts even suggested the plausibility of an
association of South Asian nations without Pakistan to foster regional
cooperation. India thus made a humble diplomatic effort to take on Pakistan.
Undeterred or rather a more determined Pakistan intensified nefarious attacks.
Terrorists launched one of the deadliest attacks of 26 years, on an Army base
at Uri, close to LoC killing 17 personnel and 34 jawans critically injured.
India was outraged, tensions aggravated across border and public demand for
instantaneous justice grew. Shunning characteristic restraint, Indian army
launched surgical strikes with meticulous precision on the terror launch pads
across the border inflicting great damage by the end of September. India’s
temerity startled Pakistan. Sadly, Pakistan’s unabated clandestine attacks post
India’s surgical attacks claimed lives of 29 army personnel. Afflicted by
Ghazwa-e-Hind syndrome, Pakistan has launched another attack on Nagrota army
base. Series of terrorist attacks targeting the armed personnel seems to be
part of new strategy adopted by Pakistan.
Indeed, Pakistan’s new-found brazenness can be attributed to
unequivocal support of China who has been marauding Indian efforts to isolate
Pakistan. At the BRICS-BIMSTEC Summit China bulldozed India’s attempts to name
and shame Pakistan. China stalled India’s membership for NSG (Nuclear Suppliers
Group), vetoed India’s efforts at UN of imposing sanctions against JeM chief
Masood Azhar, opposing India’s permanent membership for extended UNSC,
fomenting terror in North East by supplying arms to insurgents, waging
cyberwars and aggressively going forward with CPEC passing through India’s
legitimate territory. China’s embrace has emboldened Pakistan. Together, a
formidable cahoots of a regional bully and a terrorism sponsored state are
taking toll on India. Modi’s two years of proactive diplomacy towards its
neighbors seems to be of no avail. Modi government through high-level
diplomatic visits reached out to China for NSG membership but China remained
intransigent. It openly barricaded India’s attempts to be part of global
platforms. Breaking menacing nexus can alone fructify Modi’s aspirations for
rapid economic development. While there are many caveats to this strategy, Modi
has no choice.
Global alliances are rapidly transforming. Shifting
geopolitical paradigms are exacerbated by unpredictable foreign policy
stratagem of the bulwark, US. India can now no longer take Russia for granted.
Contracting economy has thrown Russia into China’s orbit. Keen on strengthening
Russia’s geostrategic positioning, Moscow has drifted towards Beijing. Rapid
military gains in Middle East thus far has enthused Russia prompting the
possibility of developing an alternative Russia-China axis. Russia has been
largest defense supplier for India till recently but now US is slowly competing
for this position. During the BRICS summit Modi held bilateral talks with Putin
and revamped cooperation in areas like nuclear, defence, counter terrorism and
strengthened energy links. Simultaneously, India consolidating ties with US by
signing the LEMOA (Logistics Exchange of Memorandum and other Agreement). Russia
though not seemingly miffed, began warming up to Pakistan. Both countries even
conducted joint military exercises despite India’s objections. Russia has been
sending conflicting messages by expressing interest in CPEC and announcing to
work with Afghan Taliban to attack Daesh. Now, with US senate passing the
National Defence Authorisation Act (NDAA) India will become major defence
partner of US. By essentially dehyphenating relations with different countries
Modi is trying to buttress India’s position as a balancing power in the region.
China’s defiance in accepting the verdict of Permanent Court
of Arbitration (PCA) coupled with US’s timorous assurances to its allies in the
region has turned South China Sea into a tinderbox. Frequent egregious
incursions by China into overlapping territorial waters and exclusive air zones
of Japan has changed the geopolitics of Indo-Pacific region. Japan is keen on
developing a quadrangle comprising of US, India, and Australia. Burgeoning
assertiveness of China, uncertain US policies synergized Indo-Japan strategic
ties. As a token of trust and faith in bilateral ties, Japan sealed civil
nuclear deal with India.
Modi assiduously built bridges with Middle East region, for
their phenomenal significance to India which includes-substantial volume of
remittances, energy supplies, and traditional Muslim connect. Modi visited
Saudi Arabia and Iran, traditional rivals of the region and won the faith of
both regimes by genuinely pursuing Indian interests. Saudi Arabia conferred
Modi with highest honor of King Abdul Aziz Shah. Modi pioneered India’s
strategic engagement with Iran and Afghanistan by sealing the long pending
Trilateral Transport and Transit Corridor Agreement aimed at developing
Chabahar port in Iran is considered as “game changer”. Since India can connect
to extended neighborhood whose access is hindered by geographical obstruction
and obdurate Pakistani dispensation.
Modi extensively promoted India’s NSG membership bid by
travelling to Switzerland, Mexico and Qatar to expound India’s faith in
principles upheld by NSG. Reiterating India’s commitment towards Nuclear
Security, Modi at the Nuclear Security Summit (NSS), Washington, pledged $1
million towards Nuclear Security Fund and as a house gift established a Global
Center of Excellence for Nuclear Energy Partnership (GCENEP) at Bahadurgarh,
Haryana.
Modi invested more energy in rejuvenating ties with India’s
traditional partnership with Afghanistan. He dedicated Indo-Afghan Friendship
Dam (Salma Dam), donated four attack helicopters, extended $1billion aid and
pledged to help in reconstruction. India recently hosted Heart of Asia
conference at Amritsar to chart out collaborative plans with over 40 other
supporting countries for restoring peace and stability in Afghanistan. Through neighborhood first doctrine, India
resurrected ties with Nepal (which continues to play China card), Maldives, and
Sri Lanka. To mitigate tremendous fluctuations of geopolitical paradigms, Modi
intensified engagement with East. Under the Act
East policy Modi reinvigorated historical connect with Vietnam, who was
bestowed Most Favored Nation status
by India in 1975. India upgraded ties with Vietnam, enhanced cooperation in
defence, trade and investment, offered a $500 million credit and pledged to
deliver BrahMos missiles. Since India was admitted into the elite 34-member
nuclear club Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) in June. Overwhelmed by bilateral
strategic engagement, hawkish China derided it as an attempt to develop
India-Vietnam axis.
Modi on his visit to Belgium gave a renewed push to the Bilateral
Broad-based Trade and Investment Agreement (BITA) which has been in pipeline
since 2007. He unveiled India-EU Agenda for Action-2020. To explore new
horizons with Africa, Modi paid bilateral visits to Mozambique, South Africa,
Kenya and Tanzania. India hosted Central Asian leaders from Tajikistan and
Kyrgyzstan and renewed strategic defence ties. Ceremonial welcome was extended
to President Francois Hollande of France, President of Myanmar Htin Kyaw,
Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, Prime Minister of Britain Theresa
May, President of Israel Reuven Rivlin and leaders like Aung San Suu Kyi. Issues
of shared interests are discussed with these countries.
Under the theme of connecting
Asia, India held a massive flagship program, Raisina Dialogue, first of its
kind, to explore economic opportunities and challenges. Besides, India hosted
the BRICS-BIMSTEC Summit meeting and Heart of Asia. Modi called for
international collaboration for counter terrorism cooperation and reiterated
need for Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism (CCIT) at G-20
summit, East Asia Conference and ASEAN meet.
With tumultuous conditions showing no signs of respite in
Middle East, traditional alliances are becoming increasingly fragile. Brexit,
Euroscepticism, rise of right wing parties in Europe, intimidating aggression
of China have critically changed the geopolitical architecture. As Jaishankar
Subramanyam recently summarized, “when every variable is in flux, imagine the
fluidity of the World”. So far, Modi clearly steered Indian foreign policy into
new realms with rare diplomatic acumen. But challenging times demand dynamic
solutions. Modi must evolve a resurgent policy to hoist India as a responsible
power on global platform.
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