Growing Russian dominance in global strategic conflicts and
Moscow’s ability to outmaneuver the United States with shrewd diplomacy is
taking US strategists by surprise. US always had two sharply contrasting
perspectives about Russia. One of despicable arrogance and the other was compounded
by wariness. These two extreme positions prevented West from having a balanced
approach towards Russian strategies. West even considered Russia as a political
and economic laggard. But intellectuals over the years made a calibrated
assessment that “Russia is never as
strong as she looks, nor as weak as she looks.” Truly, while Russia had
been a formidable opponent for the west during the Cold war era, its eventual
collapse led to a steady decline. But despite the sudden fall, Russia retained
its remarkable capacity to hang on and wade through.
Astana Peace Talks
Now, mediation of peace talks between the Syrian government
and armed militant rebel groups at Kazakhstan capital Astana with unusual
partners Turkey and Iran testimonies Moscow’s resurgence. The two day long
talks which concluded on Tuesday making a little headway towards cessation of
hostilities in Syria. In a Joint statement approved by three guarantor states,
it was decided to institute a trilateral mechanism, “to observe and ensure full compliance with the ceasefire, prevent any
provocations and determine modalities of ceasefire” and “reiterate their determination to fight joint
against ISIL/Daesh and Al-Nusra and to separate them from armed opposition
groups”. A nominal ceasefire is in place since December 30th.
Russia, Turkey and Iran agreed to support negotiations
between the Syrian government and armed opposition groups under the auspices of
UN at Geneva on Feb 8th. Till now UN conducted several rounds of
peace talks to resolve the Syrian crisis. But what makes Astana talks so
significant is for the first time, Russia initiated peace process brought
Syrian government and armed opposition to the table. With this, Russia has evolved
as the hegemon of the region by filling the vacuum created by the diminutive
presence of US in the Middle East. By tactfully keeping Assad out of this newly
brokered alliance of the three nations, Russia deftly defended the political
inevitability of his regime in Syria. To accomplish this formidable mission,
Russia diligently orchestrated an alliance of convenience with Iran and Turkey.
Mediating the most intractable conflict of the 21st Century Russia now
aspires to position itself as a leader the changing world order.
Interestingly, Iran and Russia always sided with Syria and made
remarkable contributions in seizing several areas from IS. But Russia and
Turkey had uneasy relations. Shooting down of Russian fighter plane by Turkey
for alleged air space violations in November 2015 and killing of Russian envoy
in Ankara a year later could have potentially triggered enmity between the
countries. But Russia intent on positioning itself in the middle East accepted
the condolences of Turkey and repaired the relations. Russia roped in Turkey
despite being an ardent supporter of Syrian opposition through Moscow
Declaration and laid foundations for the peace process in Syria. Turkey
exasperated by American failure and perturbed by Kurdish advances joined hands
with Russia. Russia also brought the ideologically antagonistic partners like
Iran and Turkey together which is no mean job either.
Post-Coldwar
For long Russia was dubbed as the “sickman of Europe”. In
fact, after the collapse of Soviet Union, though Russia inherited its indomitable
military, Moscow was beset with several issues like secession, free fall of
Ruble, humongous levels of corruption by oligarchs etc. Russian federations
comprising 15 countries plunged into total disarray. To prevent states from
seceding from the federation, Russia sent troops to Chechnya in 1994 but could
manage to crush the rebellion only by 1999 under the leadership of Putin. The
Asian financial crisis of 1997 culminating in Global Economic recession
aggravated Russia’s financial crisis. Gladly, with a sudden surge of global oil
prices, Russian economy significantly recovered by 2000. Putin was chosen to
head new government in 1999 and was appointed as President in 2000. During
eight years of his presidency economy recovered substantially, GDP grew by 6.7%
per year, average income increased by 11% enabling government to cut external
debt by 70%. By 2004, Russian animosity with West intensified due to second
NATO expansion into Baltic States (Lithuania, Estonia and Lativa). In 2008, Russia
was forced to marched troops to South Ossetia to stall Georgia’s efforts to
take over the breakaway region. Moscow, later recognized the independence of
South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
The Ukrainian Revolution of February 2014 sent the region
into tizzy. Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych requested Russia to send
military troops to restore law and order in the country. Russian troops
eventually entered the autonomous region of Crimea and took control over the
region’s parliament. By March 6th Crimean Parliament unilaterally
voted to rejoin the Russian federation and later conducted a referendum. Following
the approval of resolution by overwhelming majority Crimea signed a treaty of
accession with Russian Federation. Thus, Russia gained control of the region
without firing a single shot while UN General Assembly opposed Russia’s
annexation of Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol.
Russia’s annexation of Crimea had earned it overwhelming
international censure in 2014. Soon economic sanctions were imposed crippling
the economy. Russian economy nearly stumbled, Ruble nearly halved and the
country was forced to pump in strategic reserves to rescue the country from the
debt trap. Apparently, the state of art infrastructure built for the Sochi
winter Olympics exacerbated the debt burden. Meanwhile, as global crude oil
prices nose-dived, Russian slipped into economic doldrums. Per capita income
fell by 10%. Russia was left with two options. One, immediate economic
redressal to contain popular resentment and other was raising above the
economic travesty and seizing opportunities. Instead of stooping into despair
President Putin invoked nationalism and resurrected his flailing popularity by
invoking the Ukrainian crisis and Crimean accession. At a time when Russia was
considered economically weak and in decline, Putin recovered Russian pride.
Crimean annexation aside highlighting Russia’s competent use of force helped
Moscow gained unhindered access to Black Sea. Having suffered a humiliating
debacle due to its Afghanistan adventurism, Russia didn’t occupy Ukraine.
Instead Moscow effectively utilized military might and strategic leveraging of
various resources to control Ukraine.
Strategic Approach of
Russia
Russia’s resilience despite economic crisis and mounting
international censure had become a point of growing interest among the
international diplomats, historians, and politicians. Indeed, Strategists of
the West began a comparative analysis of the strategic approach of the Russia
and US. Briefly, they summarized that- Russia is well-versed with desired ends,
cognizant of available means and retains flexibility. Akin to Darwinism, Russia
quickly adapts to the changing dynamics and suitably plans to minimize risks.
Whereas Washington’s structured strategic approach designed after a stringent
decisive-making is deemed rather inflexible to yield results on ground. While
US effectively completes one decision making cycle, Russia attacks the problem
with several uncharacteristic assaults, fails and reinvents to accomplish the
task. The rather unambiguous approach of Russia, which was confused with lack
of stratagem by opponents eventually succeeds. Russian military intervention in
Syria which began on September 30th 2015 characteristically
illustrates its basic approach to global conflicts. While America started
providing non-lethal aid to rebels after the eruption of Civil war in 2011.
Slowly it began providing training, intelligence, and cash to rebels. After the
alleged use of Chemical Weapons by the Syrian authorities in August 2013, US
resolve of direct intervention began to gain ground. In September 2014, US
under Operation Inherent Resolve
announced a military campaign against IS by the Combined Joint Task Force (CJTF),
a coalition of 14 countries. The coalition pledged to destroy IS and dismantle
the Assad regime. They conducted disproportionate numbers of airstrikes. Russia
on the other hand, before direct military intervention supplied arms to Syrian
army. Moscow besides fighting IS wanted to help Syrian government to regain
control over the territories held by opposition forces and stabilize the
political power. Indeed, Russia by operating over 50 aircrafts expending $500
million (the amount spent by US on training rebels) has demonstrably instilled
signs of reprieve. Russian coalition by felling Aleppo, forced the rebels
for a peace talks. Moscow eventually strengthened Bashar Assad’s political
regime.
Unlike US, Russia had selectively intervened (Chechnya,
Georgia, Ukraine and Syria) and produced demonstrable results with modest
military expenditure. More so, Russian foreign policy is more aggressive since
it had to guard its vast borders from the dozens of neighboring countries with
dubious intentions. Being a victim of jihadist problem, it mastered the art of
low cost war. Strategist Michel Hoffman, elaborated that Russian doctrine and
strategy rests on the “pillars of
Gerasimov doctrine and non-linear warfare to hybrid warfare, new generation
warfare and cross-domain coercion”. For decades, West casted aspersions
on Russian achievements and castigated its shrewd diplomacy. Recently US sent
back 35 Russian diplomats alleging Moscow’s interference in US elections by
President Obama. President Putin reciprocated by inviting children of Russian
diplomats to Kremlin to see his Christmas tree. West’s vilification stems from
Russia’s diplomatic triumphs like creation of Eurasian Economic Union with
Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, brokering of Syrian chemical
weapons disarmament, rapprochement with China and more recently resetting of
ties with former Soviet Republics starting with Moldova. At a time when EU is
weakening, Russia is precociously heralding a new strategy of keeping a check
on former Soviet Republics from considering ties with EU or NATO.
Lessons for India
India has been a close ally of
erstwhile Soviet Union since 1960’s and shares exceptional camaraderie. After
the collapse of Soviet Union, Russia became time-tested partner of India. For
the past five decades, Russia was the top most military weapons and equipment
supplier of India. But India’s decision to diversify weapons acquisitions and levitation
towards US upset Russia. This was reflected in Russia’s shifting foreign policy
stand towards Pakistan. Moscow’s flirtation with Islamabad epitomized in the
form of joint-military exercises, agreement for supply of MI-35 attack
helicopters, Moscow’s new found interest in CPEC and Russian envoy objecting
India’s attempt to isolate Pakistan at Heart of Asia Summit. Russia even deftly
avoided naming the Pakistan based terror groups in the Joint Statement at
BRICS-BIMSTEC Summit. Even Russia’s
burgeoning rapprochement with China may not bode well for India. Now, Russia is keen on joining hands with
Afghan Taliban to attack Daesh/IS in Afghanistan much against the wishes of New
Delhi and Kabul. Russia, Pakistan, and China have recently agreed to remove
selected Taliban leaders from the UN sanctions list. India must be really
concerned since Russia didn’t feel the need to consult Delhi despite its long-standing
relations. P.S. Raghavan, convener of National Security Advisory board in a
newsletter suggested that “Russia’s
overtures to the Taliban in Afghanistan could create bilateral dissonance in an
area of core importance to India”. It is time, India should effectively
communicate with Russia and intensify diplomatic activity with Russia else New
Delhi might be caught the quagmire of India-US-Afghanistan vs
Russia-China-Pakistan. India can ill afford such ominous geopolitical predicament.
Putin a fervent nationalist,
authoritarian having mastered the skill of shrewd diplomacy is keen on
positioning Russia as a leader in changing global order.
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