Burgeoning Euroscepticism, Trump’s Protectionist Approach portends well for Global Rise of China

Rise of right-wing populism in Europe, burgeoning Euroscepticism, Brexit, and Trump’s victory have set new global precedents. Numerous Op-eds have spelled out bombastic effects of Brexit and US Presidential elections whose stunning verdicts left people gob-smacked. The referendum results and Donald Trump’s victory had clearly undermined the intellect of the Liberals ensconced in walled high-rise buildings. Brexit and Trump’s triumph signified wide spread public acceptance of the rhetoric “shutting off doors to immigrants” and “Make America Great Again” respectively. Academicians concluded that the startling outcomes truly reflected a simmering dissent towards globalization while others ascribed it to frenzied fixation of restoring identity. But the imminent effects on geopolitical scenario were hardly discussed. The sudden shift in people’s choices impelled that Britain and the US who collectively reigned globally as Western axis may no longer continue to wield more influence and power over the rest of the World.

Europe and later the US largely controlled the international arena from early 18^th Century until the turn of 21^st century. With the collapse of Soviet Union, a formidable challenger till the end of Cold war, the US emerged as the lone super power. Asia despite its huge size could never project its power and remained a subdued continent.  The humongous diversity, lack of unity, incoherent alliances, colonization stymied the continent to evolve as a collaborative entity. While Asian countries were engrossed in nation-building, US and Europe reached the pinnacles of economic development. The onus of driving the wheels of global economy rested solely on Asia with a panoply of developing nations. Envisaging the developmental potential of emerging nations strategists declared that 21^st century belongs to Asia. Subsequently through rapid globalization, economic growth in Asian countries picked up momentum as the West continued to invest and catered to insatiable appetite for development. But steadily the dynamics began to change.

Following populist surge against globalization reflected in Brexit and US Presidential election, the West is propelled towards Protectionism. A trend, which will open gateways for Asian countries to explore and navigate through the charters which were forte of the West earlier. This slow but imminent effects might be significant. The preponderance of multilateral institutions patronized by the West might diminish. A characteristic synchronized attunement of geopolitical stratagems to suit western interests will be resisted. Together, this systematic shift in power fulcrum will augur well for China’s global ambitions.

The self-imposed retreat of the two dominant democracies might usher World nations into a network dominated by Asia or more specifically China. China which has been itching to project itself as the emerging superpower can launch itself unabashedly. To gear up for the new responsibility China had already launched its own multilateral institutes – AIIB (Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank) NDB (New Development Bank) and the economic overdrive under the ruse of infrastructure development-OBOR (One Belt One Road) and MSR (Maritime Silk Route). Like Europeans who inveterately spread tentacles to colonize the globe, emulating similar tactics China will reincarnated itself as the neo-colonist through its dubious aid games. In fact, the imperialistic tendencies of China are expounded by its all-weather friend, Pakistan. Express Tribune recently carried out a scathing piece saying that $46 billion CPEC was “designed by China for China” to gain access to Arabian Sea. Though China says Pakistan will immensely benefit from the project, it is more than clear that Pakistan products are no match to Chinese manufacturing companies. Further the article opined that “China will use CPEC to loot and plunder Baluchistan”. India raised serious objections to CPEC since the 3000km long highway adjoining the strategic space of India passes through its legitimate territory. List of Chinese perfidies under the guise of developing infrastructure projects have already accrued more losses to small countries which included among others- India’s neighbor Sri Lanka. The lacuna created by a weakened EU, inwardly looking US in the International Sphere is up for grabs. Unmistakably, China is rapidly gaining ground during this intermittent period of uncertainty and vacillation.

Further, Trump’s protectionist attitude and intemperate arguments towards climate change, detached approach towards alliances might cost US dearly. By inadvertently rejecting the TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) as a “disaster for American jobs”, US has already conceded more space to China. The strategic space created by retreat of US can be eloquently capitalized by India too. Absence of a long term national foreign policy stratagem and excruciating regulation plagued India’s outreach. On the other hand, China through meticulous diplomacy, quick decision making and strategic overdrive clearly chartered through murkier waters and evolved as a giant player. With Sino-Centric World eventually going to be a reality, Trump is trying to change the diplomatic tact by reaching out to Russia. Post-World War II, owing to animosities between US and Russia international arena remained bipolar till the end of Cold war. US in a bid to ascertain its supremacy, buttressed China which was rather weak state despite conflicting ideologies. With the collapse of Soviet Union and end of Cold war, Russian economy was reduced to tatters. American diplomatic and economic influence remained unchallenged till late 2000s. But now US is perturbed by the steady rise of China and its inclement assertiveness. With Russia steadily meandering into Chinese Orbit, a prospective Sino-Russian axis might diminish the geostrategic significance of US. To circumvent the resilience of such axis, Trump is now reaching out to Russia with renewed vigor and enthusiasm.  

Clearly, Brexit, US Presidential Elections and Euroscepticism reflected in the latest Italian referendum had a toll on three major aspects- Trade, Investment, and Migration. Besides, these stunning verdicts will eventually lead to a tectonic shift in geopolitical alignments.

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