Turkey’s failed coup of July 15th reminisces its
incredible journey from the Ataturk’s secularism to Islamic overtures of
Erdogan. The formidable Ottoman Empire, the last trans-continental Islamic
Caliphate that reigned for over seven centuries crumbled following a
devastating defeat in World War I. The legendary Mustafa Kemal Ataturk,
struggled to crave modern day Turkey from the vestiges of the Islamic
Caliphate, aspired to steer clear off the Persian influences and embraced
Western thinking. Motivated by the phenomenal transformation brought about the
industrial revolution, Ataturk consciously banned and erased the influences of
Persian Civilization. Besides, enshrining the ideals of secularism and
democracy in the Constitution of Turkey, he entrusted the task of upholding
founding principles with Turkish Army.
As a guardian of Turkish democracy, over the past 60 years,
military intervened whenever the country abdicated the constitutional order. So
far, Turkey faced five coups and each time after the coup, military handed over
the power to the politicians. Turkey encountered first coup on May 27th,
1960 when President and Prime Minister were tried for treason, misuse of public
funds and abrogation of constitution. It was followed by 1971 Turkish Military
Memorandum to restore normalcy after unrest caused by economic recession. The
1980 Turkish Coup contained escalation of clashes between left and right wing
groups. In 1993 covert military coup was attempted and in 1997 Turkish Military
memorandum caused forced resignation of Islamic Welfare Party Prime Minister
Necmettin Erbakan. Welfare Party with roots in the Mili Gorus Islamist
movement (the largest Islamic Organization of the West, warranted against close
relations with Europe) was the first political party in Turkey with Islamist
leanings. Post-Coup Welfare Party suffered a vertical divide. A splintered branch
under the name of Justice &Development Party (AKP) led by current President
Recep Tayyip Erdogan clinched power in 2002 with mere 34% of vote share. AKP
retained strong Islamic orientation of Mili Gorus but was inclusive with
proclivity to West. Shortly after assuming power, to accelerate expedite the
accession process, Erdogon smartly reduced the powers of military and
congruently brought about civilian-military balance of power in line with EU’s
mandated stipulations. Erdogan impetuously pushed forward the agenda of
obtaining EU membership. He tamed the Turkish Army forces and installed a
pliant leadership at the helm of affairs. In line with the Copenhagen criteria
he designated more power to civilian regime and sidelined the National Security
Council (MGK) authority. Despite Erdogan’s rebalancing acts, military issued
deft warnings to AKP when it tried to appoint Abdullah Gul as its presidential
candidate in 2007 and reprimanded AKP for undermining the secular credentials
of Turkey.
To downsize the influence of military, AKP and Gulenists
worked in tandem. Gulenists are followers of Fethullah Gulen, a writer, Imam (who
preaches Sunni (Hanafi) version of Islam), preacher and a politician. Western
media, portrays him as an Imam with moderate ideas promoting tolerant Islam,
emphasizes hard work and education. He strongly abhorred the secular traditions
of Turkey and condemned the authoritarian secular brigade. Post 1980 coup,
Turkish authorities believed that Gulen can topple the government and hence
imprisoned him for six years. He was again tried on charges of treason in 1999
following which he escaped to US on pretext of medical treatment. He stayed
back in Pennsylvania and obtained green card in 2001. Gulen or Hizmat movement has immense following
and most of his followers in Turkey hold higher positions in Judiciary and
police forces. But by and large Gulenists are opposed to the secular brigade of
Turkey and wanted to liberate Turkey from the shackles of the secular
traditions by penetrating the administrative set-up. Judiciary and Police
Forces are riddled by Gulenists. Hence, when AKP came to power and had to bear
the tough opposition of the secular forces they found a natural ally in
Gulenists as both ardently adhere to Sunni Islam. Together they, witch-hunted
senior military officials, opposition leaders, journalists, media personnel by
fabricating stories, planting evidence and finally prosecuting them for
indulging in nefarious activities. The Ergenekon trials of 2008 and
Sledgehammer case of 2010, successfully implicated 15% of senior military
officers. Military officials are imprisoned on allegations of attempting to
remove a democratically elected government by staging a coup. Charges included
a detailed plan of bombing two Istanbul Mosques and accuse Greece of shooting
Turkish Plane flying over Aegean Sea which can create chaos and justifying a
military coup. By making expositions in the media, AKP and Gulenists garnered
enough support to prosecute the officials on the basis of fabricated charges.
To effectively dethrone the towering presence of Turkish military, AKP and
Gulenists together forged alliance.
By 2012 overpowered by mutual distrust and Gulenists stiff
resistance to AKP’s peace negotiations with Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) the
rift widened. With the summoning of National Intelligence Organisation (MIT)
chief, a confidant of Erdogan by Gulenists in the judiciary regarding the PKK
issue, relations between the allies turned sour. By November 2013, Erdogan destroyed
the alliance by closing prep schools, which are source of finances and
recruitment for Gulenists. These were followed by retaliatory raids conducted
by Gulenists on the family members of Erdogan and alliance ministers of AKP.
Implicating them of stashing hordes of Gold, Gulenists triggered protests that
called for Erdogan’s resignation. While AKP espoused Political Islam Gulenists
expounded the values of cultural Islam. But apparently, the objectives of
Gulenists are not clear. Both factions affirmatively reinforced faith in
Islamist agenda hence the clashes can be construed as tug of war for power. The
extensive network of Gulenists infiltrated nearly every arm of administration.
With Gulenists literally occupying higher positions in administration they ran
a parallel state. Erdogan survived the collective backlash unleashed by
Gulenists in 2013. But to counter the powerful disposition of Gulenists in
powerful positions, he ruthlessly expunged them from all arenas of
administration. He targeted the media houses, banks, bureaucrats, entrepreneurs
who were part of Gulenist movement. Further, Erdogan dissociated himself from the
Ergenekon trials and sledgehammer cases. Court overturned some of the
convictions made under these trials. Erdogan effectively played victim card and
galled at Gulenists, working as “state within a state”. He designated the
intricate network of Gulenists as Gulen Terrorist Organisation (FETO) or
Parallel State Organization by December 2015 and accused them of infiltrating
the administration to unseat the government.
In the meanwhile the top military brass who were implicated
in fabricated cases were stripped off their positions and replaced by more
tractable officials. Erdogan thus restrained the unbridled authority of
military. Hence all serving chiefs of armed forces are now intense loyalists of
Erdogan. By 2014, the chaos and massive unrest in Syria began to dominate the
Turkish politics. After the cessation of cease fire agreement with the Kurdish
militants, military was designated with the task of conducting hot pursuits.
With PKK abdicating the guerilla warfare and began targeting army check posts,
urban dwellings and launching bomb attacks military intensified its operations
and was busy in combing operations. These relentless operation had its toll on
military. While it elevated their stature and bestowed overwhelming authority
and power, a faction of army was disgruntled by Erdogan’s role in fabrication
of false charges against them. They were intensely worried about the growing
authoritarianism of Erdogan and had qualms about his religious conservatism.
This disgruntled faction of the armed forces led by retired
colonel Muharrem Kose is now believed to have launched the coup. Unlike the
previous coups, this attempt was rather amateurish wherein even the President
who was holidaying in Marmaris could fly to Istanbul without any trouble.
Moreover, he reached out to 80million Turkish people and urged them to occupy
streets and repel the “enemies of democracy”. As against the formidable tasks
of killing or capturing the President or Prime Minister of Turkey. The plotters
managed to hold the chief of general staff as hostage briefly. Coup which
started at 10pm at night began with closure of the Bosphorous Strait that
connects Europe with Asia. Parliament Building, President’s Palace and Prime
Minister’s residence were attacked. Though the plotters opened fire on the
protestors leading to the death of 50 civilians, ground forces of putschists
eventually gave in. But the aerial forces of plotters put on stiff resistance,
indicating that the toughest opponents of Erdogan regime hailed from Turkish
Air Forces. Till now almost 28% of the top brass of Turkish Army were arrested
for their alleged involvement in coup. Aborted coup, empowered Erdogan in
two ways- Firstly, despite hatred for Erdogan his staunch political opponents
didn’t support coup attempt instead they joined protests and condemned it.
Secondly, his plummeting popularity received a new lease with people remarkably
responding to his call of taking to streets to stall the plotters. These events
bestowed him with a moral high ground to take on his former political ally,
Gulenists.
Clinching this rare opportunity, Erdogan lashed out at
Fethullah Gulen for mastering the coup and officially launched the extradition
process from the US. In the meanwhile conflicting theories are afloat in media
with critics opining that Erdogan himself might have orchestrated the coup
following his sinking popularity among people. The conspiracy theory of US
administration executing the coup to topple Erdogan regime through Gulenists
began to take a huge toll on the already sour US-Turkey relationships. Ever
since, US allied with Kurdish forces in Syria to fight IS, Turkey had serious
misgivings with US. The relations further deteriorated with US and the West
questioning Erdogan’s sanctions on press and media. At the height of cold war,
US welcomed Turkey into NATO for its enviable military prowess and to counter
the aggressive spread of Russian allies in the region. Turkey is a key ally of
NATO and US under the “Agreement for the cooperation on the uses of Atomic
energy for Mutual Defense purposes signed in 1959,” began to build up nuclear
assets in Turkey. US retained B-61 gravity bombs, nuclear artillery shells in
Adana (Incirlik) Air base. US and Turkish Forces trained together to carry the
nuclear weapons on planes. Failed coup attempts stoked fears about the safety
and security of the nuclear weapons deployed by US in Turkey. US may now
reassess its operations from Turkey and may look for alternative forward bases
to launch attacks against IS. Meanwhile, Turkey stiffened its stance on
extraditing Gulen with Prime Minister Binali Yildirim indicating that Turkey
will go for a war with any country supporting Gulen.
Post-coup Turkey’s position on international arena has become
fragile. Aside NATO’s serious reconsiderations about Turkey’s role, EU
diplomats expressed concerns about probable surge in migrant exodus to Europe. Besides,
Erdogan’s relentless Gulenist Purge has rattled the international community. As
of now 60,000 educators, judges and police were suspended and 13,000 are
arrested on charges of coup. With Turkish authorities openly announcing
plausible execution of the alleged plotters, human rights organizations and
especially European leaders are rattled. The worst fears are exacerbated with
Turkey pulling out from the European Human Rights Court which bans executions. The
West is now increasingly worried about Turkey’s reckless disposition on mass
executions of alleged coup plotters. Mass executions can irreversibly damage
Turkey’s chances of EU accession. In March Turkey was close to clinching a
migration deal with EU wherein it would shelter Syrian migrants reaching Greece
in return for relocating Syrians in Turkey across various EU countries. To stem
flow of refugees EU promised to deliver $3billion cash and offer a visa-free
travel to Turks into Schengen region. Though European leaders are keen on upholding
the migration deal which can reduce refugee inflows, they are reluctant to
offer visa-free travel to Turks. Turkey has been struggling to comply with the
72 odd legal and technical clauses mandated by EU to obtain visa-waiver. Failed
coup now raised fresh concerns about Turkey’s compliance to human rights
violation and implementation of anti-terrorism legislation. Meanwhile, Erdogan upped
his ante against Europe for failing to deliver the cash of $3 billion as
promised.
Erdogan
who affirmed the coup as gift of Allah, will now obliterate opposition, purge
Gulenists from civil services, administration and literally annihilate dissent
in any form. With no holds barred, he will now attempt to change the existing
constitution that bestows very limited powers to President. Erdogan who has
become notoriously authoritative in the past decade would continue to amend the
constitution to have absolute powers. His Islamic leanings and the intolerance
might greatly polarize the Turkish society escalating tensions. Slowly but
steadily the founding principles, democratic order and secular traditions may
erode. Turkey which was an epitome of Islamic tolerance may face the torment of
religious and secular divide. With Turkish army failing the secularists as
ultimate protector, the one-man show might soon plunge Turkey into abyss of
intolerance and jihadi culture. The counter revolution against the founding
principles of modern republic like Turkey in West Asia is truly disheartening.
Gradual descent of Turkey from the iconic moderate Islam to religious
conservatism is exasperating.
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