Modi’s astounding and sure footed diplomatic manoeuvres sofar
acclaimed great repute from various quarters. In 11 months of assuming the high
office Modi visited 16 countries apart from his upcoming tri-nation trip to
China, South Korea and Mongolia from May 14-19. With this three-nation tour
India intends to intensify its engagement with neighbours of China, a counter
to China’s overreach program of reaching out to nations in India’s immediate neighbourhood.
Modi will be first Indian prime minister to ever visit Mongolia.
Significance of the
visit
As the countdown for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s bilateral
visit to Beijing has begun there is palpable enthusiasm among industrialists,
traders and strategic analysts. 21st century is widely recognised as
Asian century and hence interaction between two astute Asian leaders assumes
greater significance. Moreover as the World is taking serious cognisance of
China’s endeavours to slip into the new role of emerging super power, its
friendly equations with neighbouring countries is of immense relevance. For
India the task of managing its biggest neighbour is quite challenging and
intricate for the inherent similarities and the contradictions between the two
Asian giants. India having paid heavy price for serious misjudgement of Chinese
in the second decade of its independence is more wary of the dragon and ever
since every India prime minister treads a rather cautious path in dealing with
China.
In reciprocation to the avant-garde ceremonial honours and
receptions extended to President Xi on his visit to India at Ahmedabad, Prime
Minister Modi would be visiting the native province of President Xi, Xian
followed by Beijing and Shangai during his three day visit to China. Crucial
issues on agenda of the Prime Minister are to strengthen trade and economic
trade. Indo- Chinese trade stands out for its striking asymmetry. While the
Chinese exports grew three and half times than its imports India failed to
significantly raise its exports. India remained a committed exporter of the raw
material and eventually turned into a dumping prey of the manufactured Chinese
goods. China is now the largest exporter of goods to India. With its economic
clout it has managed to surpass India as the biggest supplier of active
ingredients for pharmaceuticals too. While Modi is all geared up to attract the
Chinese investment through Make in India Initiative, caution should be exerted
lest India turns out to be sewage dump for the environmentally taxing Chinese
industries. Alternatively its expertise should be deftly utilised in
infrastructure development.
New Security Strategem
of China
The cause of major consternation in dealing with China would
be its new security paradigm unveiled as the Code of Conduct for Asia by
President Xi Jinping in 2014. As per the new stratagem, China intends to deliver
veiled threats to countries forging military alliances to counter China and
reap economic rewards to nations dallying towards the dragon. Unlike his
predecessors who struggled to project the benign face of China, Xi has galloped
ahead on foreign policy agenda with smart diplomatic forays. In 2008 India and
China under President Hu Jintao initiated a “Joint Strategic Vision for 21st
Century” with a “Shared Vision Concept” endorsed a common vision and both
nations vowed to work together. But the current astute diplomatic overtures of
present leadership have completely buried it.
Modi’s visit to China will provide him an excellent
opportunity to recalibrate the existing Indo-Chinese foreign policy. Chinese
the masters of strategic gradualism with rapid strides emerged as formidable
force and Western analysts made a cautioned reference to Defence Posture of
China. Of late China is pumping millions of dollars towards revamping its
defence infrastructure, research and towards development of state-of –art
weapons. A conservative estimate indicates that China currently possess more
maritime submarines that the US.
Diplomatic Outreach Programmes of China
Chinese Outreach programmes are rather incisive and
immaculate. It has revved up outreach program and is committed to make a mark
of its own globally. China’s proactive initiative in the launch of BRICS New
Development Bank and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), demonstrated
China’s resolve to develop alternative financial institutions. The US wary of
its diminishing dominance warranted its allies to opt out of AIIB as founding members during its
launch. But within few months of launch European countries made a bee-line to
become members.
With an initial investment of $40 billion famously referred
to as the Silk Road Fund, it ambitiously launched One Road, One Belt. Wherein
it strategizes to create a network of infrastructure projects and aims to
enhance the connectivity by establishing land corridor extending from its
eastern coast to Eurasia (Pacific Coast to Baltic Sea) to dislodge the US as
pivot of Asia. The audacious Maritime Silk Route intends to connect more than
50 countries via sea and simultaneously build ports along the Silk Road. This
move not only overrides the diplomatic outreach program of India but would
reduce the sphere of influence of the US. China’s frantic land reclamation
activity captured by the advanced satellite imagery recently in the South China
Sea has been cause of serious concern the region. In short all these aggressive
strategic ventures hold a testimony to the assertiveness of the resurgent China.
Diplomatic Complacency
of India
India is lulled into diplomatic complacency by a myth that
both nations are upholders of oldest civilisations and are in same league with
more than 1 billion population. But China over a period of time moved miles
ahead of India. Its GDP is five times bigger than India. China is in a different
league now. Its intimidating hegemony and growing economic clout besieges India
to reformulate it China Policy.
Recurrent Incursions
India should take a conscientious note of recurring
incursions of PLA (People’s Liberation Army) along the LAC (Line of Actual
Control) and in the new sectors of Despang and Chumar which never surfaced in
the land disputes earlier. Clearly the strategy of Chinese seems to create a
dispute where there was no dispute earlier. From the year 2006, Chinese started
issuing stapled visa’s to citizens of Arunachal Pradesh claiming it as a part
of South Tibet. During exchange of maps it deliberately marked Arunachal
Pradesh as disputed area. Thus, it has been substantially building a case to
make its claims real. Dalai Lama publicly refuted charges of China and asserted
that Arunachal Pradesh was never part of South China.
President Xi on his recent visit to Pakistan made a grand
announcement of constructing a 3000 km long China-Pakistan economic corridor
running through the PoK (Pakistan Occupied Kashmir) which is a disputed area. A
generous $46 billion of bounty conferred on Pakistan towards infrastructure and
for gaining strategic access to the Gwadar port. Pakistan in return has leased
out the port to China for 20 years expediting its ambitions of establishing a
naval base in the Indian Ocean Region. It is also planning to construct a
railway line between China and Nepal by building tunnel under Mount Everest.
Thus, China’s major diplomatic successes portend an adverse impact on India’s
foreign policy.
In the meanwhile, some diplomats opined that Modi’s visit
might be inconsequential considering the small time gap between President Xi’s
visit to India and Modi’s return visit to Beijing. Xi’s visit to India eight
months ago was marred by biggest ever incursion into Chumar and with no signs
of Chinese softening its stance on incursions, some analysts view that Modi’s
trip will be a futile exercise. In February Indian ambassador in Beijing was
summoned on eve of Modi’s visit to Arunchal Pradesh and condemned India for
undermining “China’s territorial sovereignty, interests and rights”. In yet
another condescending act, Chinese intelligence has arranged for a secret
meeting of nine insurgent groups of North Eastern States to form a united front
in Myanmar.
Modi is buttressing his diplomatic quiver with mystical bows of
soft power and democracy. He began casting the magical spell by signing onto
the Sina Weibo platform and registered 11.12 million hits. This would be
followed by massive public meeting of India diaspora in China. While India’s
flexible diplomacy has enabled it open its geopolitical options the fiercely
ambitious attitude of China encouraged its neighbours to take a benign view of
India’s rise. The previous history of China and its engagement with our immediate
neighbours emanate vindictive signals. Consequently Indian leadership should
reassess situations cautiously before congruently ramping up any issue of
bilateral solidarity.
@ Copyrights reserved.
Published on Myind Makers website on 14th May
2015.
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