Engaging the Dragon

Of all the diplomatic voyages embarked by Modi so far, China’s trip has been highly debated. The trip evoked mixed reactions from the former diplomats and bureaucrats. A trip to China was always believed to be a tight rope walk for Indian leadership. An engagement with Beijing reminds the Indian memory of the hogwash friendly pretence feigned by the Chinese leadership of yesteryears. The difficulty was compounded by its growing Beijing’s hegemony and intimidating economic clout. Hence political analysts have always advised the Indian leadership to exercise caution and to do required ground work. While India doesn’t fall short of being categorised as an emerging power in Asia, its incipient diplomatic complacency pushed it into a state of strategic stoicism. India has been widely criticised for failing to evolve a robust foreign policy. Evidently Indian approach and engagement with nations was largely dependent on the leadership at the helm of affair. Against this background Prime Minister Modi’s stead fast approach towards foreign affairs heralded a new beginning. During the entire trip he had three stopovers in Xian, Beijing and Shanghai. The trip was rated as a super-trip by the Chinese officials as hardcore decisions pertaining to border issues were not taken. Interestingly so, even Indian business community hailed the trip as deals worth $20 billion were signed.

International community took cognisance of the trip, as interaction of the two Asia’ dynamic leaderships displayed a symbolic bonhomie. While symbolism might have miniscule role but it often sends out vibrant message across. Indian media too at the outset were apprehensive about the outcome of the visit labelling it as being high on optics. In the first stopover of visit to Xian, the home province of President Xi Jinping and ancient capital of China’s Tang dynasty an extra-special welcome was accorded to Modi. Upon his arrival in the airport the traditional Tang dynasty welcome escorted him from airport to the city. It was reckoned as a rare honour for a foreign dignitary.  Besides several official meetings, Prime Minister Modi and President Xi visited Diacen Temple and Wild Goose Pagoda and watched a cultural performance together. Both leaders discussed issues of global and regional importance including terrorism, reforms of UN Security Council and India’s membership of Nuclear Supplier’s Group (NSG). Indeed China is the only permanent member which hasn’t recommended India’s candidature for permanent membership. Even now it exercised great restraint on its committal to the membership to NSG and to UN Security Council. But both sides agreed to bolster counter-terrorism cooperation. Modi reminded Xi about the pending Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism (CCIT) and India’s commitment for its ratification.

 With irritants like conferring $46 billion investments to Pakistan, ballooning trade deficits and unresolved border disputes bothering Indian side, Modi reiterated his concerns about the issues in his talks with Premier Li Keqiang in his second stopover in Beijing. Modi left no stone unturned in reaching out to the Premier by posting his grand selfie with the premier. While both sides acknowledged existence of long-drawn border in congruencies they have decided to take immediate call on revamping the economic ties. In the meanwhile, Beijing triggered a fresh controversy by broadcasting the Indian map without Arunachal Pradesh and Jammu Kashmir on its state run CCTV. This provocative gesture has brought to fore the dubious stance of Chinese and warranted caution. Modi asked the Chinese to adopt fresh approach to the contentious issues affecting bilateral trade so that India and China can together play an important role on the world stage. Accordingly India and China has decided to set up a hotline connection between the military headquarters of two countries. To build trust between countries China’s vice chairman of Central Military Commission visit will be reciprocated by the visit of Defence minister of India. Subsequently there will be increase in number of meetings between border personnel and commanders at all sectors of Indo-China border. This will be followed by exchange of naval personnel visits and joint training on counter terrorism.

A whopping 45 agreements were signed including 24-intergovernmental agreements in outerspace, cyberspace, earthquake preparedness, maritime science, smart city, consular establishments, finance, education, exchanges between political parties etc. In a major move to strengthen cooperative federalism in India, state/provincial think-tanks will be established to foster engagement between the states and the Chinese government. Further Modi took chief ministers of Gujarat and Rajasthan to China to facilitate a platform for them to invite direct investments to their states. Though Karnataka chief minister was also invited to be part of the Modi’s entourage he failed to make it to Beijing. Besides 21 business agreements worth $22 billion in areas ranging from steel, telecom, solar energy and films were signed in presence of the Modi at the Indo-China Business Forum in Shanghai. 

To rein on the growing trade deficit that was $38 billion in 2013-2014 and expected to raise to $40-45 billion in 2014-15 a task force was instituted. This will try to address the problems faced by Indian IT and Pharmaceutical industries in entering Chinese markets and problems faced Chinese companies while trying to invest in India. To facilitate greater cultural ties and people to people friendly contact an additional Consulate General is proposed to be established in each other’s country. An Indian consulate in Chengdu and a Chinese consulate in Chennai will come up. In a confidence building measure, Modi has announced e-visa’s to Chinese tourists while addressing students and faculty in Tsinghua University. This was expected to boost Indian tourism and to increase two way flow of people. The years 2015 and 2016 have been designated as Visit India and Visit China respectively. E-visa announcement of Modi is going to stir hornet’s nest as the facility is being extended to a country which issues stapled visa’s to Indian residents of Arunachal Pradesh and Jammu Kashmir. Further even the intelligence agencies in India had serious reservations about any such proposal.

On the final day of his trip in Shanghai Modi spoke to Chinese CEO’s about the Make in India initiative. Assuring Chinese business honchos of personal diligence in easing government norms, he invited innovative entrepreneurs to set up shop in India. Later Modi launched Centre for Gandhian and Indian Studies at Fudan University and emphasised the significance of Gandhian ideals in tackling terrorism and global warming. At the grand reception organised by the Indian community reception at ICBC World Expo Exhibition and Convention Centre Modi addressed 5000 strong Indian Diaspora living in China. Commemorating one year of power Modi thanked the Indian voters for voting him to power. He also held ode to Indian democracy which enabled a person from humble origins to rise to the highest office of the country.

 While Modi emphatically promoted the cultural connect between the nations by invoking the guiding principles of Buddhism and by gifting a sapling of the Bodhi Tree, extension of e-visa’s might be severely censured. To sum up while the trip was low on tangible outcomes in terms of resolving border issues it tried to boost up the existing economic trade. Modi’s visit to China has started yielding results as judgement regarding 22 out of the Gujarati diamond traders languishing in Chinese jails was delivered. Of them 13 are freed and the remaining 9 are sentenced to imprisonment for 3-6 months. The visit will be reckoned for the high-octane reception extended by Chinese and the magnetic cultural connect reinvigorated by Modi. Both nations for time being tried to push ahead with issues that are could stabilise the existing situation. The Indo-China relationship is very complex as the two giants eye each other with suspicion and perhaps time alone can resolve the contentious border issue.

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