Academicians projected 21st century as the Asian
Century and true to its predictions the two superpowers of Asia, China and
India are poised to take centre stage. The Indian Ocean Region (IOR) accounts
for nearly two-thirds of the World trade and ostentatiously every major power
wants to establish its foot hold in this region. India due to its geographical
location and its cultural connect through migration of the indentured labour
from Myanmar to South Africa during the era of colonisation has a vast sphere
of influence in this region. Unfortunately it failed to ramp up its influence leading
to neglect of its ties with its Oceanic neighbours. Prime Minister Modi to
reassert the status of India as a safe, stable and secure democracy has
embarked on a five day trip to IOR nations- Seychelles, Mauritius and Sri
Lanka. Modi will be the first Indian Prime Minister to visit Sri Lanka after 28
years and Seychelles after a gap of 33 years since Indira Gandhi. The last
Prime ministerial visit to Mauritius was in 2005. Modi’s visit to the IOR is an
effort to bolster ties with the immediate and extended neighbourhood.
The itinerary originally included a planned visit to Maldives
but at the eleventh hour, Male has been shunted out. Modi’s visit to Maldives
has been called off due to the prevailing domestic unrest following the arrest
of former pro-Indian President Mohammed Nasheed, by the current President
Yameen Abdulla on terror charges. Reliable sources indicate that Nasheed was
arrested as he disclosed Abdulla’s plan of leasing out Laamu Atoll to China for
a period of 99 years for $2 billion fee to set up military base. With a crackdown
on democracy and refusal of Maldives President to heed to India’s request to
stop persecution of President Nasheed, the distraught Indian government
scuttled the long planned visit to Male. In the meanwhile President Abdulla flew
to Islamabad to step-up bilateral relationships with Pakistan to the next
level. China has been eyeing the Laamu Atoll of Maldives and Hambantota harbour
in Sri Lanka for its ambitious 21st century project of Maritime Silk
Route which extends from Antwerp in Belgium to ports in China. Since China
already has complete access to Gwadar port in Pakistan and wanted to seal its
influence in this region by acquiring ports at strategic locations.
The back to back visits of Chinese President in September
2014 and Defence Minister in November 2014 to Maldives has been cause of great
concern to India. Recently when Maldivian desalination plant collapsed, India
responded immediately by sending five aircrafts and two ships carrying fresh
water to mitigate the crisis. China too sent a military vessel and $ 500,000
towards the repair of plant. China is resorting to neo-imperialistic tactics
like propelling tourism to these island nations. Maldives though geographically
close to India has recently strengthened its relations with China. The three
critical areas of interest are tourism, infrastructure projects and maritime
cooperation. Increasing Chinese investments in Maldives can legitimately
provide platform for strengthening its presence in this region. In 2012, Male
airport infrastructure development contract was assigned to GMR group, an
Indian firm, was cancelled and awarded to Chinese firms.
Seychelles being closer to African Coast is besieged by pirate
problem. China has been actively engaging in anti-pirate mission and reports
state that Seychelles in return offered its maritime bases for refuelling. For
Beijing with its wider economic interests in Africa establishing a naval base
on the island would be a lucrative option. In order to protect its energy imports
through the Indian Ocean and to obviate the US and India as security providers
in this region, China is keen on maintaining troops in this region. India
shares close military ties with Seychelles and New Delhi helps the nation by
providing them surveillance aircrafts and patrolling ships.
Former Sri Lankan President Rajapaksha upped ante against
India and started embracing China setting dangerous precedents for New Delhi.
India was clearly rattled when a Chinese nuclear powered submarine docked in
ports of Colombo twice. Beijing is now increasingly drawn towards investing in
the Mauritius which has closer cultural ties with India. Mauritius with single
largest Indian ethnic group comprises of indentured labour migrated 175 years
back from India. Thus, both nations share a common heritage. During his visit
Modi will commission a 1300 tonnes India-built patrolling vehicle Barracuda to
protect the coast line of Mauritius. He would address their national Assembly
and participate in Mauritius National Day Celebrations on March 12th
(the day Gandhi started Dandi Satyagraha march in 1930).
China’s growing influence in Maldives in the form of uninterrupted
flow of resources for new ventures and its overt military support to Mauritius,
Maldives, Sri Lanka and Seychelles is posing threat for India’s dominion in
IOR.
IOR once India’s impenetrable zone of influence is now
threatened by the growing shadow of the China. Chinese President Hu Jintao visited
Seychelles in 2007 and President Xi Xinping as a part of South Asian tour
visited Maldives, Sri Lanka and India last year. China insatiable appetite to
extend its foot print and maritime strength in this region is evident by it
robust participation in the anti-piracy mission, in aggressively pursuing the
development of ports along the African coast and strategic Persian Gulf.
Further it is making strategic investments in Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Mauritius and
Iran. India can hardly object to China’s growing trade and economic interests
with these nations but simultaneous stepping up of the military might along
these regions is a matter of great concern. In order to trump China, New Delhi
must step up its cooperation with these island nations.
Unlike China, India never tried to flaunt military might
towards the string of island nations in the IOR. It has been a covert security
and maritime security provider to these nations and guaranteed protection during
civil wars or military strife’s, disasters, relief and rescue management. In
return India never demanded any kind of military, economic or political suzerainty.
India is now rousing from its institutional lethargy and
trying to re-engage with these nations. India has already put forth baby steps
towards fostering relations with nations in IOR by informally grouping with Sri
Lanka and Maldives in 2011 and including Seychelles and Mauritius by 2014.
India can’t match China in terms of resource investments. India can proactively
engage with these island nations by building and exporting small vessels and
ships to these islands. This would give major boost to ‘Make in India’ initiative by pushing shipping industry to build
more ships. India can offer its expertise in hydrography by mapping oceans and formulating
plans for defence and security to these nations. India with its unending
coastline can engage with these nations towards blue development or blue growth
popular in Europe. This strategy aims at harvesting ocean wealth through
aquaculture, generating renewable energy, promoting maritime and coastal tourism,
exploring marine mineral resources and blue biotechnology that promotes job
creation.
The past decade long UPA government overlooked the maritime
interests of the country in the IOR. Modi government is trying to make up for
the lost opportunities by reorienting the foreign policy where India can regain
its status as an influential soft power. By extending invitation to SAARC
leaders and the President of Mauritius for his swearing ceremony Modi made an
emphatic beginning for his long term strategic foreign policy. His penchant for
deeper engagement was reflected by his bilateral visits to the neighbouring
nations, in promoting the institutionalisation of BRICS bank, strategic tie-ups
with Japan, US, Australia and Fiji. His current visit to IOR reinforces India’s
willingness to reengage with the island nations and to reaffirm their
confidence in India as a trusted partner and ally.
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