The stupendous victory of the berated underdogs AAP in the
capital city has more lessons to offer to the complacent ruling party enveloped
by smugness and for the fledging regional political parties as well. Mercurial
Kejriwal has turned into a national icon drawing the euphemisms of political
strategists and common man. Ecstasy of supporters of AAP and its leaders knew
no bounds as the unexpected electoral bonuses drenched them. As the margin of
victory began to swell, AAP was overwhelmed by the burden of expectations too.
Astounding victory of AAP packed off parties and political strategists into a
contemplative mode who are trumped by its inventiveness and futuristic mode of
politics.
The massive mandate of the political debutante AAP was particularly
hailed by parties who abhorred the invincibility of BJP and rejoiced its
political drubbing. It is indeed very alluring to analyse the electoral picture
and its outcomes as the underdog and political novice has handed over worst
defeat to BJP, its most contentious political rival. As most political pundits opine,
the staggering defeat of BJP is cumulative effect of massive negative voting against
the incumbent party and doesn’t indicate an unwavering support for the AAP.
Analysis of the vote share indicates that BJP has more or less retained its
loyal vote bank. In 2013 Assembly
elections with a vote share of 33% BJP won 31 seats share whereas 32% vote
share in 2015 reduced them to 3 seats. On the other hand, the total vote share
of 25% lost by Congress and other parties aligned up with the AAP. Thus upping
the ante against the BJP and increasing the vote share of AAP to 55%. The net
effect of negative voting resulted in rout of BJP.
The most important aspect that reduced BJP has been its
campaigning style and tone. It was carried away by the negative style of the
electioneering. It made mockery of its own commitment towards development based
agenda by resorting to personal attacks on Kejriwal and his family. By
dubiously yielding to enticement of mudslinging and attacking with below belt
blows it poorly lost the plot. Kejriwal and Co outperformed BJP by sticking to
the core issues and by obfuscating the questions posed by BJP whereas BJP was wading
through the negative campaign trail blazed by AAP against its key leaders. By superciliously
failing to learn the lessons which trounced the Congress during the Lok Sabha
elections wherein Mani Shankar’s insensitive Chaiwala comments of Modi catapulted him to centre stage and
eventually steered into power. Callous and negative criticism against Kejriwal
spear headed by Modi in his inaugural election campaign blew a death blow to
the BJP’s chances of heralding power in Delhi.
Altogether there were endless list of anomalies that etched
the BJP’s campaign. Parachuting of Kiran Bedi into BJP’s camp 20 days before
election and conferring her with the honour of Chief ministerial candidate
sparked dissent and anger among the party cadres. The disgruntlement did fade away
after initial ruffling of feathers publicly but it dented the enthusiasm of the
party workers. This weakened the momentum of active campaigning. Right from
announcing the prospective contesting candidates to laying out well-chalked
manifesto’s BJP has drawn cold feet and lagged behind its rival. The candidates
and cadre were ill-prepared and nearly lost connect with the common man.
Against the constituency specific manifesto prepared by AAP, BJP drew a blank
and postulated a vision document for the capital leaving the masses confused
about its agenda. It grossly failed to narrate its agenda for the capital. Overpowered
by hubris BJP underestimated its opponent and failed to attract and strike a
chord with the youth who warmly supported for Modi during 2014 general elections.
Extending a cordial welcome to massive ingress of defectors from major parties raised
doubts about the moral high grounding of the party. In sharp contrast to AAP’s
election preparedness, BJP’s campaign appeared old, worn out, cynical lacking
positivity.
After its much touted debut in 2013 Delhi elections AAP
entered the LokSabha elections as strong favourites but could romp home 4
seats. Undeterred by the defeat and humiliation of resigning from the post of
Chief Minister of Delhi, Kejriwal drew courage and strategized his next move. In
the first ever gesture by a politician he publicly apologised to people of
Delhi and impelled them to give him another chance. AAP then prevailed and allured
the youth and the masses of Delhi with an implausible list of subsidies and
freebies. It treaded carefully and redoubled its impact by effectively
narrating its policies on the social media networks. The task of establishing connect
with people was managed by its reticent army of volunteers and finances were
raised by crowd sourcing. With things in place it slowly took over the trusted
vote banks of Congress and other socialist parties which lost relevance due to
unfulfillment of their promises to the lowest rung of the society. AAP cuddled
up to Christians during their protests against Churches and with the fatwa
issued by the Imam Bukhari to vote for AAP, its prevalence and penetration in
the capital was absolute. With the unparalleled and enviable rise of Kejriwal, Aam aadmi’s aspirations of rising to
pinnacles of power were bolstered. Hence it is perceived that astronomical rise
of Kejriwal is expedited by the smugness of the ruling party and erosion of
people’s trust in Modi. Success of AAP is infectious and regional parties should
take a leaf out of AAP’s illustrious book. Augured by its triumphant victory it
would be premature to elevate AAP to a national party status.
In reality the success
of AAP would be hard to replicate in states with viable multiple political
parties. In Delhi AAP’s upward trail has been speeded up decimation of Congress
and obliteration of its support base. It was a contest of BJP Vs AAP (in other
wards anti-BJP forces). The socio-political terrain of Delhi is completely
different and it is encumbered by ever widening inequalities. A possible leftist
kind of agenda is apt for its public reeking under constant assault and
high-headedness of privileged class. But the approach and manifesto of AAP
would hold no ground in other metros and states whose socio-economic terrain is
different. With this humongous mandate, expectations are sky high and AAP’s urban
governance should speak now.........
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