While a cease fire agreement has been reached at Minsk urging
the parties to refrain from fighting from February 15th night, shelling
in the eastern region continues unabated. The pro-Russian rebels are hardly deterred
by the proposals of the agreement. Intense clashes for more than a year had
ripped apart Ukraine turning it into a war-zone. The continuous ebb and tides
of attacks between the forces and separatists showed no signs respite across
the South-east border of Ukraine forcing the parties to chalk out a cease fire
agreement.
Ukraine, the eastern most country of Europe hardly makes
waves in the global news but for its incessant protests and eruptions of
violence. The fierce rivalry and intense competition between the West and
Russia for Ukraine can be attributed to its geostrategic location. It was the
second largest country in the erstwhile USSR. With a population of 46 million
it is one of the biggest countries in Europe and the best markets for European
and Russian goods. It is also the second largest country in Europe after Russia
and is 15% bigger than France, the third largest country in Europe. It shares a
long border of around 1600 km with Russia making it the best bet for the West
and Europe to curtail the expansive trail of Russia.
Before annexation of Crimea, a region gifted to Ukraine by
Russia, Sevastopol City located in Crimean peninsula used to serve as the
largest naval base for Russia. Even the head quarters for Russian black fleet
were located in Crimea. In 2010 in a bid to reward Ukraine for allowing
continuous and extensive use of the naval fleet by Russia offered to sell oil
and gas to Ukraine at much cheaper prices. Ukraine also borders the Black Sea,
the Sea of Azov, Romania, Bulgaria, Poland, Slovakia, Hungry and Moldova. It
prime location allows Ukraine to play a crucial role in Eastern and Central
Europe.
Besides its strategic geographical location the country is
economically lucrative. It is manufacturing hub of intercontinental ballistic
missiles, transport planes and launch pads for rockets. It has 15 nuclear
reactors managed by Energoatom contributing to 50 % of power supplies to the
country. These nuclear reactors can be suitably converted to manufacture
nuclear weapons hence highly rewarding for nuclear proliferation activities. It
is major producer and exporter of steel and essential backbone for the
shipbuilding and auto industries. It is major transit point for supply of oil
and natural gas for Russia to Central Asia and Europe. Currently 70% of Russian
gas and oil pipelines carrying supplies to the Western Europe run through
Ukraine. Any disruption to these supplies might entail untold sufferings to
millions of Europeans. Ukraine is
endowed with fertile black soils making it the most sought after place for food
production and animal husbandry. It has potential to turn into the bread basket
of Europe.
Ukraine and Russia are intertwined with a shared history of
over 1000 years and even now nearly 20% of Ukrainians are Russians. Ukraine has
been a troubled state as it is caught in violent tug of war between its past
and future. Majority of ethnic Russians in Ukraine primarily live in eastern
and Southern borders of Russia, the region of troubled conflicts as they are
pro-Russian. After the ascent of Putin in 2000 with surge in global oil prices Russian
economy was revitalised whereby Putin made attempts to prevent Ukraine from
leaning towards west and aligning with Europe. But the younger generation of
Ukrainians were eager to steer clear of the Russian style of functioning and aspired
for a pluralistic society. The famous, Orange Revolution of 2004 was fall out
of the active Russian involvement in the Ukrainian politics where by people
launched huge protests on the roads to express their resentment. Following the
intervention of international observers, the results of the hugely rigged elections
were reversed which were tilted in the favour of pro-Russian leader Victor
Yanukovych. Ukrainians celebrated this huge victory, but again in the election
of 2010 President Yanukovych regained power. But what spurred the present
clashes has been the sudden change of decision by the President Yanukovych in
November 2013 to snap ties with Europe in favour of closer economic ties with
Russia. Ukrainians suspecting a foul play hit back streets again paving way for
the ouster of Yanukovych who took exile in Russia in February 2014. Petro
Poroschenko, an oligarch and former trade minister backed by Washington and
Brussels was reinstated in his place as the new President after legitimate
electoral process in June 2014.
With forced impeachment of President Yanukovych, Russia felt
threatened and to safe guard Russian interests in Ukraine, Russian Parliament in
March 2014 approved military intervention. Under the opposition regime, pro-Russian
activists occupied government buildings in the cities of Donestk, Luhansk and
Kharkiv. Ukraine’s acting President in April ordered military operation against
pro-Russian rebels. Meanwhile pro-Russian separatists declared independence of
Donestk and Luhansk after unrecognised referendums and intensified their
activities. In June 2014, EU signed a landmark association agreement with
Ukraine. With the tragic shoot down of the Malaysian plane carrying 298 people in
July pro-Russian rebels were held responsible and international sanctions were
imposed on Russia. Rebels in turn made more advances and captured Novoazovsk
and Russia extended humanitarian aid to them. A truce was stuck between pro-Russian
rebels and Ukraine in September followed by subsequent withdrawal of Russian
troops from the eastern border. Russia agreed to supply oil to Ukraine in a
deal brokered by EU. By November, separatists in eastern Ukraine elected new
leaders backed by Russia. Ukrainian President, angered by derailment of peace
process, readied troops to attack the separatists. Since then two eastern
regions of Ukraine have been witnessing dangerous conflict between the Ukrainian
forces and the pro-Russian separatists.
Russia bestows tremendous support to Ukraine and expects its
allegiances to it. Post cold- war with collapse of the mighty Soviet Union,
Russia is harbouring the burden of defeat. Substantially after losing most its
satellite countries to the NATO alliance, any external intervention in its
immediate neighbourhood is deciphered as a threat to its sovereignty. As a
result, West’s allurement of Ukraine deeply enrages it. Ukraine is as important
to Russia as Taiwan is for China. After the collapse of Soviet Union, Russia
wanted to align with its satellite countries to foster the doctrines of
Socialism but failed miserably. Russia intended to create Eurasian Union (EAU)
a rival to EU with Ukraine as a key member. Its initiative suffered a massive
setback with a dramatic shift in Ukrainian government to be part of NATO. It is
pertinent that Russia would escalate the issue if West is too keen to arm the
Ukrainians. Ukraine for the west is the choicest delicacy it aspires to have on
its platter, but it could be its worst nightmare, if it wants to munch on it.
If the west intends to hunt down Russian troops in Ukraine, the trick might
boomerang as Russia might arm Iran triggering a massive unrest in the Middle-East.
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