Africa: Propitious Omens

Africa: Propitious Omens

Further to my post “Africa Calling”. I wanted to know more about the massive continent its economic potential and scope for development.  An in depth study has clearly depicted the nuances the continent is facing. Some critics have hyped up the whole turn events in Africa during the past decade and predicted that it is going to compete with tigers of Asia for investment.

I was greatly surprised by the veracity of the continent at the first instance. Africa is too big to follow a single script. Hence instead of making a sweeping statement on the scenario of the entire continent as such, it would be prudent to talk about the countries in Africa. It is huge continent with 55 countries and each of them at various tiers of the development.

Some of the land-locked and central African countries like Niger, Algeria, Libya, Congo , Egypt  and Sudan are at the lowest tier of development and ranked lowest in UN’s Global human-development index. These have abysmally low literacy rates, coupled with high infant mortality and dire poverty. They are conflict ridden and suffer from terrible poverty. Some of countries like Niger, Chad, Congo, central African Republic have huge reserves of Gold, Oil and other valuable resources. The money earned by the Government from these resources does not reach the needy people. The story in all of these countries is different but the current situation is more or less the same. Bad governance coupled with war has been detrimental to their growth process. Rebels and Government closely weigh for the resources and each of them ends -up buying more arms to keep a check on each other’s activities. Some respite in the form of uprising in Egypt brought some beacon of hope. The process of public uprising is slowly spreading to other countries and few could revive their governments bringing a palpable change in economies.

Ivory coast, Ghana, Nigeria has a different story to unfold. Their land is endowed with rich resources but most of their investments are in the form of building big football stadiums and dams. Resources are diverted for creation of big elephants. Growth in these nations has been largely non-inclusive, though a change in the perception of the people is noticeable and evident. There are numerous short comings and allegations of corruptions. Ethiopia and Kenya are striking good growth rate. But their growth is uneven. South Africa is known as the land of rich and affluent. It is suffering from huge income disparities between the rich and the poor which is becoming increasingly unbridgeable. Unemployment rate stands at 40%. Industrialization has stalled and economic growth has stagnated. Guinea-Bissau, Guinea and Sierra Leone are tired of wars. Several infightings have died down. But most of the economies are ravaged by war and states are rendered dysfunctional by violent disorder.  Kenya on the other hand has the highest level of mobile penetration and nearly 70% of trade transactions are carried out through mobiles. Senegal has a vibrant democracy. Zambia, Zimbabwe and Botswana have huge riches beneath with huge haul of minerals and metals. In reality many African countries are relying heavily on the sudden boom of the commodities. People have realized the importance of good governance and most of them are opting for democratic systems.

The three crucial elements brought a robust change in Africa - the Western aid agencies, Chinese mining companies and UN peacekeeping force. But the real saviours of the continent have been the people who have relentlessly worked towards a new change and a new dawn. They started aspiring for new technology, voting out for the right leaders and urging their leaders to work for them. Most of the indicators of the human development have improved. Life expectancy rose by tenth, infant mortality has come down, more children started going to schools, HIV infection rates have fallen, deaths due to malaria has reduced, foreign direct investments tripled.

But on the flip side, commodity boom has inflated some of the economies. Majority of their exports include agricultural commodities and the resources dug out from beneath.  These resources are not going to last longer and climate plays a major havoc for a reliable cultivation. Africa is slated to be continent which will be worst hit due to climate change. Savannah's are steadily depleting, water tables are sinking and rains have become too erratic. Further, the continent is expected to nearly double by 2050. Unless the state is capable of providing a stable employment to the masses, it is sure to fall back to the trap of internal fighting. Some of countries are still marred by violence and under constant threat of growing Islam extremism.

A way forward for it should be improving the governance by making use of the youthful population, lifting restriction on the employing migrants and land ownership.  Better economic management, by aiming at inclusive growth, investing in core sectors which can fuel the economy with regular returns. Infrastructure, Urbanisation, better technology can steer the growth.  Africa is right now pitted against Asia as a future leader. But still there are miles to go !!!!!!!!!!!

 

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