The Middle East which is going through intense turbulences reeled under yet another dangerous escalation with Iran’s retaliatory strikes on Israel in the early hours of (April 14) Sunday. A careful analysis of the plots and subplots that culminated in Iran’s attacks provides a clue to the strategic expectations of each of these nations.
A rare lull
and episodes of reconciliation that etched the Middle East in the initial few
months of 2023 evoked a pragmatism of uncanny peace in the region. A curtain
raiser for peace in the form of the Abraham Accords, I2U2, ceasefire in Yemen, Iran-Saudi
rapprochement, Syria joining the Arab League and the official launch of
India-Middle East Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) have buttressed hopes of melting
dissensions. But the ephemeral peace was rendered asunder by the 7/10 Hamas
terror attack on Israel triggering the launch of Operation Iron Swords. The
full-fledged military offense by Israel has nearly reduced the Gaza Strip, etched
with an underground network of terror shelters to rubble. With both parties
failing to reach a truce agreement over the exchange of Israeli hostages,
determined to completely destroy Hamas battalions, Israel planned an assault on
Northern Gaza, Rafah.
Expressing
solidarity with the Palestinians and demanding the end of the Israeli invasion,
Houthi rebels launched missiles against Israel initially. After the missiles
were successfully intercepted, Houthi began to target merchant vessels in the
Red Sea. Since November 2023, they have launched dozens of attacks on
commercial ships and hijacked them. This cascading effect escalated tensions in
the region with the US and the UK carrying out strikes against Houthis and
culminated in a coalition, Operation Prosperity Guardian. This Red Sea Crisis
has nearly affected 15% of global trade. Since the Hamas terror attack, Israel
has been fighting a six-front attack1.
These
include- Hamas, a non-state actor in Gaza; Hezbollah from Lebanon; Islamic
militants in Syria and Iraq; Houthi militia from Yemen; tensions in the West
Bank and finally the fissures within Israel and the sudden eruption of
dissenting protests against the Netanyahu government. The unprecedented trail
of violence by the nonstate actors and proxies of Iran continued to rock the
region. Unlike the 1973 war, when Israel came under intense attack from the
armies of neighbouring countries, this latest episode has turned into an
informal curtain-raiser for a fresh episode of escalations between the two
fraught nations- Israel and Iran via proxies.
Throughout
the ground offensive in Gaza, Israel has been under attack from Iranian
proxies. Iran made no secret of its celebration of Hamas's attack on Israel
saying- “What took place today is in line with the continuation of victories
of the anti-Zionist resistance in different fields, including Syria, Lebanon
and occupied lands”. As a counter to the Sunni Saudi, to protect its
interests, Iran along with establishing a paramilitary force, the Iranian
Revolutionary Guard Force (IRGC) and set up Quds Force, an intelligence wing
that financially and militarily assisted the proxies in the region to serve its
interests.
Growing
impatient with the multipronged attacks to disrupt the weapons supply system of
Iran, Israel has regularly struck the runways of Damascus and Aleppo airports
in the past six months. In the wake of the unrelenting attacks from Hezbollah
along the northern border, warning of the possibility of a full-fledged war,
Israel demolished the Iranian consulate in Syria on April 1st. According to
some reports as many as 13 people were killed including General Mohammed Reza
Zahedi, senior commander Mohammed Hadi Haji Rahimi and Hezbollah member Hussein
Youssef. Zahedi who commanded battalions in Lebanon and Syria, also acted as a liaison
to Hezbollah and Syrian intelligence services and was responsible for
guaranteeing weapons shipment to Hezbollah.
At the time
of the strikes, as per some Iranian agencies, Zahedi was holding a meeting with
leaders of Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Israel which has been targeting
military installations across Syria has downed a building, the putative
military attache on the Iranian embassy compound contending it as a terrorist
hub. This targeted attack on the consulate spurred a “major escalation” and
Iran vowed “revenge and punishment”.
Two weeks
later, Iran hit back at Israel with an unprecedented barrage of close to 330
missiles, drones, cruise missiles in retaliation. Almost 99% of the missiles
have been successfully intercepted by Israel’s defense system in concert with
the US, UK, France and Jordan agencies. The damage entailed by Israel has been
minuscule. A seven year old girl was hit by the shrapnel and Nevatim airbase in
the south suffered minor damages. Iranian mission in New York invoked Article
51 of the UN charter before the attack which stipulates, the “inherent right
of individual or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs against a
member of the United Nations” along with an explicit declaration of not
seeking to escalate.
Iran’s
attack was along the expected lines given its record of striking the US
facilities in Iraq in response to the assassination of General Qassem
Soleimani. Though Iran successfully pulled out its act of avowed retribution
against Israel, the impact has been nominal as Saudi and UAE relayed
information about the impending attack to Israel 48 hours ahead. For years, the
US has been working to forge a defence and intelligence cooperation framework
between Israel and Sunni Arab nations against Iran. Indeed, Iranian strikes
witnessed the activation of this informal arrangement which enabled the use of airspace
for radar tracking. Jordan agreed to let the US, use its airspace and it
employed its own jets to intercept the missiles and drones2.
Amid the
spiking escalations, the defense coordination between Israel and Arab countries
has averted a major crisis that could have potentially engulfed the entire
region. But the strikes have severely blunted Israel’s invincibility and
undermined its deterrence. For the first time since the 1991 Iraqi scud attack,
Israel was struck by an enemy state directly. Post-1973 War, Israel has been
under attack from the ‘axis of evil’ comprising of proxies and militias
bolstered by the archenemy, Iran. Iran has crossed the Israeli “red line” and
Israel will be unwilling to take any dent in its deterrence lying. But wary of
a plausible escalation the US has made its stance clear of not supporting
Israel in its offensive operations.
Even the G7
countries, which have condemned Iranian attacks have warned about the dangers
of any escalation. The global economy which is yet to recover from Covid and
reeling under food, fuel and fertiliser insecurities due to the Ukraine
conflicts and is not ready for any military offensives. The Western countries
led by the US are now rallying to contain the spillover before it could
explode. After the Iranian attack, Netanyahu has postponed the Rafah offensive,
convened the war cabinet twice and reiterated that he would “do everything
necessary to defend itself” and would “exact a price” at a time and
place of its choosing, indicating that Israel has reserved its right to
retaliate.
Iranian
President Ebrahim Raisi celebrating ‘Operation Honest Promise’ warned, “slightest
action against Iran’s interests will definitely be met with a severe extensive
and painful response” hinting at an explosion of the conflict if countries
in a fury cross the “redlines”. Countries like India, Russia and China have
urged countries to exercise restraint and resolve the issue through “dialogue
and diplomacy”.
But clearly,
the Iranian attack has for once shifted the world’s attention from Gazans.
Scorned by countries for its defiance, Israel is now flooded with messages of
solidarity from the West. The US has vowed “ironclad” support and with
domestic rising, it would soon divert weapons and resources to Israel from
Ukraine.
The furious
retributive attacks have underscored the Iranian missile technology prowess and
drone-producing capabilities and heightened the fears of its nuclear enrichment.
Given that UN sanctions over Iran’s missile programme expired in October,
Western leaders are now contemplating fresh sanctions on Iran.
Unfortunately,
India is caught in this quagmire as the ship, MSC Aries, seized by IRGC in the
Strait of Hormuz had 17 Indians onboard. Post-Iranian strikes, India reached
out to both countries and urged the sides for “immediate de-escalation,
exercise of restraint”. Additionally, it sought the release of the crew and
diplomatic access from the Iranians, which was granted. With fresh reports of
Israeli strikes on the cards, Iran and Hezbollah are withdrawing their top
resourceful officers from Syria. The situation in the Middle East is volatile
and countries across the world are tracking the developments closely.
@ Copyrights reserved.
No comments:
Post a Comment