Flipside of Triumphalistic ‘Abki Bar 400 Paar’

Close to two months long election exercise in the World’s largest democracy came to an end with the declaration of results for the 18^th Lok Sabha. Ending the three decades-long history of coalition governments, Narendra Modi-led government BJP party romped home two back to back landslide victories. Setting a precedent of effortlessly clinching decisive mandates, with the slogan of ‘abki baar 400 paar” from the floor of Parliament, PM Modi has set an insurmountable target. Despite PM Modi’s quick rejoinder to the slogan being coined by the public to bring back his government, the benchmark exuded a dash of hubris. It has raised the level of expectations.

Given the track record of Modi as an electoral juggernaut, capable of churning huge electoral mandates both as Chief Minister of Gujarat and Prime Minister of the country, people believed in an existence of an undercurrent in favour of BJP. The first major impediment for any elected government is an undercurrent of anti-incumbency. Setting eyes for the third term, the ambitious target of 400 hamstrung the party’s efforts to counter the incumbency factor. This (un)calculated indifference has turned out to be its nemesis. Known to be objective and aflush with an army of grassroots workers, the BJP paid a heavy price by not having its ears to the ground.

Messaging is the nucleus of the campaigning. Considered an election-winning machine, no party has excelled in this art like the BJP. Rightly so, brandishing the long list of initiatives and beneficiaries of the decade-long Modi government with elan the BJP leaders and spokespersons put the party at the forefront in the pitched electoral battle. Effectively rebutting the opposition tirades with stats, the BJP had successfully created an impression of overwhelming public acceptability which appeared to have overcome the inevitable incumbency factor as well.

For reasons better (un)known, even the exit polls approvingly bolstered the BJP’s confidence in a thumping mandate. Inexorably this created an impression of a certain reinstatement of the Modi government. This compelling narrative has set in a complacency in the voter in certain areas. Unlike the 2019 Pulwama attack where the overarching territorial security concerns have forced the people to vote in large numbers, in the absence of major disconcerting issues, voting became a mundane affair for the electorate.

But in 2024, the pan-Indian perspective hardly mattered. The voter was more concerned about nagging local issues which included community representation, social justice etc. The varied voting pattern and the electoral mandate are indicative of the same. While the BJP managed to make fresh forays into newer territories and emerged as the political alternative as in Odisha, the party was punished for sidelining certain communities in UP, Rajasthan and Haryana. Quick political lollipops to turncoats and preferential treatment to the new entrants over party loyalists sowed disaffection in ranks. In certain states, RSS distanced itself from the BJP. BJP brazen politicking to decimate opposition in Maharashtra was meted with repugnance and total rejection in the state.

BJP’s oversight enveloped by an aura of overbearing achievement and indifference to the brewing discontent, especially in its erstwhile strong bastion of Uttar Pradesh crippled the party’s electoral fortunes. To its credit, during the decade-long Modi government performed especially in terms of poverty alleviation. A whopping 250 million people escaped multi-dimensional poverty. This made a huge difference in terms of economic equality.

400 seats target has turned out to be a double-edged sword as opposition successfully used it to stoke anxieties about the constitution and reservations. Fake videos reinforcing this disinformation have indeed forced Modi himself to reassert his commitment to reservations. The mandate of 240 seats for Modi after ten years of rule is commendable considering the incumbency in a vast country like India.

But the election results struck a jolt considering the BJP’s high benchmark. It shattered the BJP’s self-aggrandised triumphalism and Modi’s electoral invincibility.  It delivered a grim reality check to the largest political party of the World and raised doubts about the certitude of the exit polls. Riding high on the electoral optimism, the markets which traded high suffered a worst crash on the Black Tuesday.

Absolute majority conferred on the political dispensation a rare luxury of dissension-free decision-making. This enabled the government to steamroll transformative reforms at will, reverse monumental blunders like Article 370 and expedient economic engines of growth with quick interventions. Modi 3.0 will be deprived of this luxury. The pace of the decision-making will take a hit. The political leeway will now be restricted. Modi will now have to work in coordination with the coalition partners.

The mandate isn’t certainly against Modi or BJP perse. Nor has it favoured the opposition INDI bloc. But people have reigned the free will of the BJP government. The task is to run the government taking the coalition partners in stride. After bidding farewell to an era of coalition government, the Modi government has to attune itself now to function under the ambit of coalition dharma.

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