Great powers are highly intolerant to nations with independent foreign policy. They refuse to approve strategic autonomy. Though the era of the Cold War ended, the Cold War mentality hasn’t left them. Trained to lob countries into blocks, their doctrine rests on the foundation of “either you are with us or against us”. Even the paradigms of ‘Strategic Partnership’ or for that matter, ‘comprehensive global strategic partnership’ are subject to convenient interpretation and application. As things rapidly escalated in Bangladesh leaving a political void, this message became deeply imperative.
With the
West’s silent approval of the street verdict that toppled a democratic
government and the subsequent welcoming of an interim government dominated by
the military, the power games in South Asia have come full circle. The
indifferent shrug of Western democracies to the dethronement of a legitimately
elected government in the eighth-largest populated country is hard to ignore.
South Asia,
beset with turmoil since the military coup in Myanmar in February 2021 became
grave with the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan in August 2021. Soon
enough, grappling with severe economic recession, June 2022 student protests in
Sri Lanka dethroned the newly elected President. The country next to be jolted with a sudden
overthrow of political dispensation was Pakistan in May 2023. The latest to
join the ranks is Bangladesh. All these countries constitute the immediate
neighbourhood of India, the oasis of peaceful power transfer.
Rise of
Fundamentalism
Each of
these changes has altered the power dynamics of the region. But the ouster of the
Awami League and the vandalisation of Mujibur's statue echoed a symbolic shift of
the State from the ‘Bangla identity’ to diabolical shades of extremism.
Ironically, the sheen of the student revolution that caused a political
meltdown unravelled rather too quickly with radical Islamist forces baring out
their agenda openly. Moments after PM Shiekh Hasina’s resignation, the jihadi
elements unleashed a genocidal pogrom on the religious minorities, especially
the Hindus. Hindu properties were vandalised, looted, burnt down, women were
raped and even temples weren’t spared.
The unabated
attacks on Hindus have inexorably sent a clear message to India of the
direction in which the country is headed. A semblance of democratic governance
that existed in the past 15 years, vanished into thin air. The journey of
Bangladesh through noxious shades of extremism remained a cause of concern for
India. The supply of weapons and arms from the Bangladesh Islamist outfits to
the insurgency groups in the North East from the early 1990s till to the late
2000s presented a perennial threat to India’s sovereignty. This pernicious
menace was compounded by the porous borders and the unwillingness of
dictatorial and extremist regimes at the helm to rein them.
The
pro-Pakistani Islamist organisations operating from Bangladesh used to train
cadres of secessionist groups in the North East as part of their ‘unfinished
agenda of the partition’. The situation became better after the ascension of
Shiekh Hasina to power. She kept transborder terrorism under check. Though
incontestably wedded to the Medina Sanad (Charter of Medina) and encouraged
Islamic education, she restrained the activities of pro-Pakistani radical
outfits and political parties believed to be responsible for her father’s
assassination.
Islamic
fundamentalism prevailed in Bangladesh and annual attacks on Hindus remained an
unmissable feature even under her regime. Having prioritised development, the
erosion of secular ideals within the country hardly received much attention.
She made every effort to forge developmental cooperation with India. In fact,
after Pakistan hijacked the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC),
Bangladesh became the key anchor for India’s regional cooperation and an active
partner in the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and
Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC).
With her
resignation, the country is now under the control of fundamentalists. The pace
of Islamisation will be rapid and unrestrained attacks on minorities
particularly Hindus is going to intensify. The subtle curbs she imposed on the
pro-Pakistani elements and counter-terrorism cooperation with India are
unlikely to return. Bangladesh is all set to become a jihadi breeding ground
akin to Pakistan. This would mark the return of transborder terror attacks from
the Bangladeshi frontier.
Security Threat
to North East
Along with
security threats, with Bangladesh descending into anarchy, India has to brace
for illegal infiltration and concomitant demographic change. The sudden and
rapid political meltdown in Bangladesh has deprived India of a friendly
neighbourhood. With the likely return of the anti-India and anti-Hindu,
Pakistan-leaning BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami, India’s North East will be under
attack. Seized by the twin impact of the Myanmar civil war and a huge influx of
refugees, North East would be a potential target for Bangladeshi terror outfits
and Chinese infiltration attempts. India’s defence strategies will be tested to
their limits.
The Play
Book
In May,
Hasina revealed the US plans to carve out a Christian State from territories of
Myanmar, Bangladesh and India to establish a naval base at St. Martin’s Island.
India’s northeast is going to be exposed to intense geopolitical pressures. India
is aware of China’s containment strategy in collaboration with Pakistan, but Bangladesh's
regime change has ascertained a similar strategy of Washington towards India.
Interestingly,
the common agent in both strategies is Pakistan. As per some accounts, the
India-containment strategy of the deep state has been in the works since 2016
when the US befriended Tarique Rahman, the chairman of Bangladesh Nationalist
Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) elements. Washington’s indifference to
the Pakistani Army’s electoral intervention, the release of a $7 billion IMF
loan, a recent upgrade of Pakistan’s credit ranking by Fitch, US-Pakistan two-week
counter-terror exercises in the Punjab province and $200 million aid for
Pakistan hinted at co-option of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) for
Washington’s Bangladesh project. Given ISI’s close ties with JeI, it is
no-brainer.
The events
in Bangladesh have been engineered from foreign shores in cahoots with domestic
forces. The template used and the sequence of events which largely preceded and
played during the course of student protests, is straight out of the West’s
playbook. The main objective was to oust intransigent, China-leaning Hasina who
refused to tow Washington’s line. The template employed included three
important aspects- sowing discord, shadowy forces amplifying anti-government
hashtags and spreading the inflammatory narrative leading to the toppling of
the political dispensation.
Destabilise
India
Washington
has played a similar game in India. A stable India is emerging as a reliable
regional power through mutually beneficial cooperative initiatives with
neighbouring countries. Adeptly defending the country from Chinese incursions,
New Delhi is steadily projecting itself as the voice of the Global South as
well. A rising India is inimical to Washington’s interests. The US
administration has been inherently uncomfortable with India’s independent
foreign policy and began to openly despise it after the Ukraine war owing to
New Delhi’s refusal to sever ties with Russia completely. This became more
pronounced after PM Modi’s Russia visit.
Washington’s
attempts to destabilise India and derail its growth engine have been in the
pipeline since 2014. This sinister agenda has manifested in the form of interminable
protests that extended for over a year in the capital city even at the height
of Covid restrictions. The Deep State has deployed every trick in its toolkit
including collaborating with disgruntled dynasts, the liberal brigade,
academicians, pliable media agencies and civil society organisations to
destabilise India and dislodge the nationalist political dispensation.
But India
narrowly escaped the regime change ploy. BJP’s inability to notch an absolute
majority has saved the country from a portending disaster. Else the Opposition
has laid the ground saying that “BJP has spread kerosene all over the country.
You need one spark and we’ll be in big trouble”. Bangladesh’s tumultuous turn
of events is an ominous indication of what was planned to befall India. After
the failed plot in India, intent on keeping India on tenterhooks through an
Islamised neighbourhood, the Deep State waited for the opportune time and let
the region plunge into an abyss of instability.
The ongoing
protests even after the swearing-in of the interim government calling for a
total purge, is indicative of a deeper ploy to demolish the institutional
systems as well.
Washington
has always sided with Pakistan and was firmly behind the dictator Yahya Khan
who carried out a Hindu genocide. The US was against the creation of Bangladesh
and could never forget how India outsmarted it with Soviet support. Pakistan
has been Washington’s mercenary slave. But India maintained strategic autonomy
adeptly balancing ties and advancing its national interests. But with the
Dragon becoming untamable, Washington is seeking to gain strategic depth in the
region to coerce Beijing. Thus, a strong India is certainly a hurdle to
Washington’s strategic interests.
American
Links of Muhammed Yunus
Indeed, what
made the role of Washington so discernible was the return of Nobel Laureate
Muhammed Yunus as the head of the interim government. Yunus indicted in a $2
million embezzlement case received support from none other than former US
President Barack Obama. He along with over 200 global leaders expressed
concerns about his harassment via an open letter.
As per Intel
Drop, Yunus is one of the key donors of the Clinton Foundation. Indeed, Hillary
Clinton misusing her position has allegedly pledged $ 13 million to Yunus after
his ouster from the Grameena Bank. Yunus has strong links with the Clintons and
the Deep State1.
In 2007 when
the army-backed interim government came to power in Bangladesh, Hillary Clinton
allegedly appealed to the government to make Yunus the “leader of Bangladesh”
and a “minus two formula” of pressurising Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia
into retirement1. In February 2007, Yunus launched a
political party “Citizens’ Power”. In April 2007, BBC reported, “the army would
sponsor Nobel Prize winner Muhammed Yunus as the leader”2. But
by May 2007 he has abandoned his political party.
In 2015,
Yunus once again reiterated his interest in leading a “benevolent dictatorship
that could replace Hasina’s government”3. His return to
Bangladesh from France notwithstanding the money laundering charges
substantiates the not-so-invisible hand of the Deep State in Bangladesh’s
regime change scheme. Yunus is an out-and-out Deep State agent.
With Yunus
at the helm of affairs, the efforts of Hunter Biden who has been a lobbyist of
BNP for years will come to fruition4. Hunter Biden has been
hired as a lobbyist by BNP via Abdus Sattar, a UK-based BNP leader, through
Blue Star Agencies for $3.75 million. To push its propaganda narrative against the
Hasina government under the garb of human rights violations, BNP has even hired
New-York based PR firm.
Often caught
flat-footed, in the past, having failed to safeguard President Mujibur Rahman
from an impending assassination and avert 1996 President Nabibullah’s
execution, Indian intelligence agencies this time around ensured Hasina’s safe
exit from Dhaka. Considering the string of violent regime change episodes in
the region, India has to ramp up both its internal and external defence
mechanisms.
Besides the
political, economic and demographic ramifications, the unrest in Bangladesh can
be a serious setback for India’s Act East Policy, Security and Growth for All
in the Region (SAGAR) doctrine and BIMSTEC cooperation. Affirming friendship,
India must quickly recalibrate its policy towards Bangladesh and reach out to
all the political stakeholders to sustain and strengthen the strategic
partnership. India must also be watchful of Beijing’s tepid moves to increase
its presence in Bangladesh.
Given the
transparent system of governance, democracies are victims of geopolitical
machinations. India must up its guard against potential foreign infiltration
and put in place enough safeguards to curtail external interferences.
Fortifying
internal strength with pragmatism and unity, amid the challenges galore, India,
must now wisely choose its allies and address strategic threats. Much to the
regret of American sympathisers in India, more than ever, Henry Kissinger’s,
“It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is
fatal” has turned out to be prophetic.
Democracy
and secularism are anathema to Muslim countries. The butchering of minorities
and violent purges in Bangladesh amid political unrest made it doubly evident.
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