Gearing up for a Trump 2.0

The palpable enthusiasm in India over Donald Trump’s historic comeback is unmissable. Newsagencies across the world have published a multitude of opEds on the potential impact of Trump’s re-election. The unprecedented electoral mandate of Trump garnering 312 electoral votes against Kamala Harris 224 defied the propaganda of a tight race. This turned out to be yet another case of the media and the leftist ecosystem blooper that dismally failed to gauge the public mood.

While a sense of shock overwhelmed certain influential sections of the American community, a vast majority have been upbeat about the change. The unequal benefits of globalisation and its lopsided impact have stirred up a sense of nationalism. This is reflected in the voting trend across nations where populist leaders are riding back to power. People are now very clear about their choices and their expectations from their leaders. Any leader demonstrating a firm conviction to make people’s lives better and to address the problems that matter to them most is voted back.

Trump’s re-election and the concomitant change of guard has disconcerted several nations. But India is no longer anxious about the US Presidential outcome. Indeed, it is geared up for any kind of change. PM Modi effortlessly forged friendly ties with Obama during his first term, later with Trump and then Biden. Indeed, PM Modi’s phone call was among the first three congratulatory calls that President-Elect Trump had responded to. Indians are slowly and steadily prepping up for all kinds of scenarios. Investing more political energy and diplomatic capital New Delhi has learnt to engage with diverse actors of the US polity. New Delhi is hardly perturbed by the outcome and confidently looking forward to working with the new administration.

More than the administrative readiness, an array of developments changed the Indian perception of the US led by the liberal Biden administration. Though the strategic partnership remained strong, marked dissensions and indirect censure have created fissures that have blighted goodwill. Despite the strong convergence over a slew of issues, there were signs of two nations drifting apart. The moral policing, the self-asserting “either you are with us or against us” reeking of unpretentious supercilious approach has managed to seed mistrust.

Any political dispensation at the helm US is known to wield power decisively but liberal administration with its unrealistic demand of a complete alignment with its values has miffed India. India, the world’s largest democracy with emblematic peaceful transfer of power resented the perpetual propaganda of ‘democratic backsliding’. Flagrant attempts to weaken and undermine democratic institutions in India in cahoots with the liberal ecosystem, civil society organisations and international organisations have irked the country.

Blatant interference in domestic affairs coupled with an extensive overreach with the Break India Forces, dissidents and vested political groups has eroded the cordiality. Undisguised endeavours to bring down the political dispensation and replace it with a plaint administration have exposed the US strategic aims for the region. Incidentally, a dramatic democratic coup that unfolded in India’s backyard has conformed to its worst fears. The open rebuke of India’s “strategic autonomy”, platforming of anti-Indian voices and extensive courting of political rivals has nearly paralysed the relationship.

Playing second fiddle to Canada’s baseless allegations, concocting a murder attempt on a designated terrorist and unleashing the deep state asset to silence India and to toe its line, the Biden administration has plumbed to new depths of undermining the strategic partnership. The double standards and intimidatory tactics on full display have uncannily unravelled the US hegemony.

With geo-strategic convergences, burgeoning economic engagement, defence cooperation and advanced technology collaboration at the heart of the relationship, the US has been India’s valued partner. This understanding has transformed the India-US relationship into a “Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership.” Hence, notwithstanding the internal dynamics, India has been steadily ratcheting up its engagement with the US.

However, India is also aware of the US administration’s ‘unsentimental’ approach to leveraging power in pursuit of American objectives. Be it Democrat or Republican, the dispensation at the helm would always be guided by their strategic interests. But a change of guard is bound to bring about structural changes. Trump who rode back to power with a promise of revamping the US regulatory framework is expected to initiate some radical reforms.

Trump’s first regime has been intensely transactional. But nations, are approvingly welcoming of his give-and-take approach over the Biden administration’s hypocrisy, double standards and the penchant to modify and tweak the existing frameworks. The stark parallels between the two regimes have been so vivid for India as the country could still recall, Trump’s response to a question at a Presser in New Delhi.

On his State visit to India in February 2020 amid the heightened protests on the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), Trump declined to comment on the citizenship legislation calling it an “internal matter”. He expressed hope that India could deal with it and said, “It is for India to do, and hopefully they will do the right thing”. These remarks made an indelible impression on the Indian psyche.

Ahead of the Presidential polls, extending Diwali greetings to the Indian community, Trump promised to “protect Hindu Americans against the anti-religion agenda of the radical left. We will fight for your freedom. Under my administration, we will also strengthen our great partnership with India and my good friend, Prime Minister Modi”.

Later in his post on Truth Social that went viral, Trump said, “I strongly condemn the barbaric violence against Hindus, Christians, and other minorities who are getting attacked and looted by mobs in Bangladesh, which remains in a total state of chaos. It would have never happened on my watch. Kamala and Joe have ignored Hindus across the world and in America. They have been a disaster from Israel to Ukraine to our own Southern Border, but we will Make America Strong Again and bring back Peace through Strength”. While critics might dismiss it as a political manoeuvre and a bid to court the potential Hindu-American voters, he became the first US politician to speak up against the atrocities committed against the Hindus.

The post which doubly highlighted the selective outrage of the liberals and the invisible American hand in the Bangladeshi crisis has signalled his commitment to reverse the machinations that turned Bangladesh into a mess and stoked regional instability.

Trump’s statement came at a time when Brampton Hindu Sabha Temple was attacked by Khalistanis. This incident underscored the threats faced by the Hindu community in Canada. Instructively, Khalistanis are courted by the administration in the US and Canada for strategic and political gains. Trump’s tweet in support of Hindus thus, made a deep impact.

Trump’s hard stance on illegal migration including a blueprint for the swift removal of around 20 million illegals has set a precedent for India, grappling with hundreds of millions of infiltrators. Trump's initiative could potentially alleviate India’s trepidation of a Western censure over the deportation of illegal migrants.

Biden administration’s insistence on acceding to the Western definition of democratic values has dented the partnership. The dominating influence of the deep state has created cracks in India-US ties.

India has now its task clearly laid out. It can’t take Trump for granted as his expectations in terms of reciprocation are exacting. Indo-US strategic ties reached new heights under Trump with countries signing key agreements like- Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA), Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) and Industrial Security Annex (ISA). India was elevated to Strategic Trade Authorisation (STA-1) status. However, he also revoked the Generalised System of Preference (GSP) for India.

Trump revived Quad with security cooperation as a guiding plank. He renamed the US Pacific Command to the US Indo-Pacific Command and popularised the Indo-Pacific construct. Consequently, the US recognised India as a major pillar of cooperation in the region. Biden elevated the Quad engagement to the leadership level but substantially diluted the security aspect and turned it into a non-military regional coalition. With Trump back in the seat, the Republican hawks might course correct the Quad agenda.

Indeed, the new appointees of the Trump team unequivocal about China’s threat while favourably pro-India, would expect New Delhi to play an active role in the Indo-Pacific security aspect. Curbing China’s expansionism in the Indo-Pacific will be a priority. To restrain an authoritarian China, the US might pressurise India to enter into a security agreement. Containing China is undeniably a welcome move for India. But as the only Quad partner with territorial border disputes with China, New Delhi will be forced to deal with the strategic dilemma sooner than later.

But by and large, wading through a web of sanctions, countries are pinning hopes on Trump who pledged to end Ukraine and resolve the West Asia crisis. At the same time, they are even figuring out ways to manage his inescapable tariff regime.

As the most powerful country, the regime change in the US is bound to have a ripple effect on the international system. India is no exception. As a strategic partner with interlinked geopolitical and geoeconomic interests, India must renew ties with the US to lay a strong foundation for a multipolar Asia and the emergence of a multipolar world.

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