At an interactive session at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, on September 12, EAM Jaishankar stated that negotiations with China have made some progress and “75 percent of disengagement problems are sorted out”. Delving on the India-China relations, Jaishankar reflected on China’s serious breach of trust and flagrant violation of the bilateral agreements that affected the India-China relations in the entirety. Forty days later, India has announced that it has reached a consensus with China regarding patrolling arrangements along the LAC.
Briefing the
media on PM Modi’s visit to Russia for the BRICS Summit, the Foreign
Secretary, Vikram Misri made this major breakthrough public. In the past four
and half years, India has firmly ascertained that peace and tranquillity at the
border is an essential prerequisite for the relationship to return to normalcy.
Walking the talk, India has refused to succumb to Chinese pressure. Though India’s
measures to delink China after the Galwan episode failed to narrow the
trade deficit, some of the initiatives like banning TikTok, Helo, PUBG Mobile,
Garena Free Fire etc, were quickly emulated by the West and other countries.
Since May
2020, India and China held 21 rounds of Corps commander-level talks and 15
rounds of Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China
border affairs (WMCC) meetings. Over the past couple of years, four rounds of
disengagement occurred at the Galwan Valley, Pangong Tso, Gogra (PP-17A) and
Hot Springs (PP-15) but patrolling at Demchok and Depsang remained unresolved.
Providing further clarity on this aspect, Jaishankar in his interaction at the
NDTV summit stated, “We reached an agreement on patrolling and with that the
disengagement, we have gone back to where the situation was in 2020 and we can
say with that the disengagement process with China has been completed”, and
added, “I think it is a good development; it is a positive development and I
would say it is a product of very patient and very persevering diplomacy”.
However, analysts are circumspect about the timing
of this development eerily similar to the events that preceded the 2017
BRICS Summit held at Xiamen in China. A week ahead of the iconic summit, India
and China announced to pull back troops engaged in a 73-day long faceoff at
Doklam. Akin to the 2020 stand-off, China attempted to unilaterally change the
status quo at the India-Bhutan- China trijunction. India deployed troops at the
behest of Bhutan. The Chinese nationalist media went on an overdrive stating
that Indian forces were forced to leave Doklam. In contrast, in the present
context, the Indian media was abuzz with news of disengagement across LAC
seized the pole position to carve a discourse whilst the Chinese media went
mute.
As sceptics began to doubt the veracity of the government
of India's announcement, a day later in a press briefing, China’s Foreign
Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated- “Over a recent period of time, China and
India have reached resolutions on issues concerning the border area following
close communication through diplomatic and military channels”, and that “China
commends the progress made and will continue working with India for the sound
implementation of these resolutions.”
Back in 2017, though countries pulled back the troops, China
surreptitiously continued to build infrastructure close to the trijunction and subsequently
settled hundreds of Tibetan families along the Sino-Bhutan border. Beijing salami-slicing by other means
underscoring its single-minded expansionist pursuits is not lost on India.
Consequently, India made the restoration of pre-2020 status quo a necessary
precondition for disengagement of troops at LAC.
Chinese troops trespassed the LAC in 2020 under the garb of
exercises and attempted a massive infiltration leading to the Galwan clash
causing deaths on both sides for the first time since 1975. This incident broke
the precarious trust between both countries revived by two informal
summits- the 2018 Wuhan Summit and the 2019 Mamallapuram Summit.
A steady troop build along the LAC by India and China has turned the borders
volatile. Chinese attempted incursions at Yangtse in December 2022
notwithstanding the Galwan clash have further exacerbated the trust deficit
between the militaries. Once bitten twice shy, India has upped it guard.
Indeed, a day after India-China agreement, Army Chief General
Upendra Dwivedi reiterated that New Delhi is not going to settle for anything
other than the restoration of status quo ante. The public announcement of
disengagement is indeed a welcome step. But this has to be followed by
de-escalation and finally deinduction for normalisation of ties. Given the lack
of trust, all these processes are going to be very long and arduous.
Standing up to the Dragon’s military posturing at Doklam and
resisting its incursions for over four years, India has reinforced its position
as a regional bulwark. While the details of the disengagement are not public,
the relations between India and China are unlikely to return to normalcy until
peace and tranquillity are restored at the borders. Every Chinese move has an
ingrained strategic signal. Troop
withdrawal at Doklam was accompanied by a compulsion to avoid any kind of
embarrassment at the Xiamen Summit as India demurred to participate.
For the past five years, India remained irreconcilable and
refused to compromise on anything less than peace at border. It wasn’t business
as usual. Besides blocking over 250 Chinese mobile apps, India imposed strict
curbs on Chinese investments and set a precedent of sorts. With its economy
heading into a slow recession, China feeling the pinch of India’s prolonged
restrictions is seeking to make some amends. Xu Feihong, who took up the charge
as ambassador to India in May, a post lying vacant for 18 months, has sharpened
the chorus for a consensus. He remarked, “India and China are not competitors
but co-operators and are development partners, not threats”.
Besides, China is now increasingly cognisant of India’s
dynamic diplomatic balancing that elevated India’s stature as a reliable
partner. India’s ability to build bridges with the West and Russia with an
uncanny ease and elan has positioned it as a responsible power. Playing an
important role at every major platform, India has bolstered its working
relationship with a plethora of countries. Countries are seeking India’s role
in resolving the ongoing Ukraine war and escalating tensions in the Middle
East.
Unlike smaller neighbours that were coerced into silence,
Beijing’s bullying failed to forestall India’s persistence and resolve. The
absence of structured bilateral engagements between leaders since the Galwan
clash has shifted the onus of resurrecting the ties on Beijing, as India made
its stance unequivocally clear that peace at border is a necessary perquisite
for stable relationship. As leaders are expected to walk into each other at the
BRICS summit hosted by Russia, China acquiesced to a consensus. In a repeat of
Xiamen Summit, Xi agreed for a bilateral within 72 hours of declaration of
border consensus.
Additionally, facing flak from the West for its predatory
expansionist adventurism in the South China Sea and renewed proclamations over
Taiwan as its integral territory, Beijing is attempting to makeup with India
having opened up several fronts. West’s interference in the domestic politics
of the sub-continent- including the regime change in Bangladesh, meddling in
Indian elections, secondment of Canada’s malicious allegation and use of
secessionist elements as assets have also spurred India-China rapproachement.
The much-awaited bilateral coming after the five years at the
16th BRICS Summit in Kazan proceeded along the predicted lines. In a
rehash of frequently choreographed metaphorical Dragon-Elephant tango, Xi told
Modi, “It is important for both sides to have more communication and
cooperation, properly handle differences and disagreements, and facilitate each
other’s pursuit of development aspirations” and added, “ It is also important
for both sides to shoulder our international responsibilities, set an example
for boosting the strength and unity of developing countries, and contribute to
promoting multi-polarisation and democracy in international relations”.
China’s reconciliation which is more a message to the West wasn’t
an instant hit with New Delhi. Welcoming the disengagement and resolution of
the border issue of 2020 PM Modi highlighted the importance of “maintaining
peace and stability on the border (which) should remain our priority ” and
affirmed that “stable, predictable, and amicable bilateral relations between
India and China, as two neighbours and the two largest nations on earth, will
have a positive impact on regional and global peace and prosperity”. He also
reinforced that “mutual trust, mutual respect and mutual sensitivity” should be
the basis of the bilateral ties.
The 3 M’s referred by PM Modi were first enunciated by
Jaishankar, who laid the guiding principles to repair the India-China relations
in his key note address at 13th All Indian Conference of China
Studies in January 2021. Given the long record of diplomatic negotiations with
China for over seven decades, India is refining its approach towards China.
India understands that Beijing’s diplomatic niceties and tall proclamations are
vacuous.
The concept of Tianxia hardwired in the Middle Kingdom foreign
policy would never accept India as an equal. India is perceptive of China’s
strategic interests and its vexatious approach of tiring the adversaries with
interminable rounds of negotiations. The multitudinous rounds of military and
diplomatic talks are indeed a testament to India’s patience and perseverance.
India knows that the current disengagement is a temporary pause and the revival
of special representatives of India-China boundary question meeting is just a
reconciliatory exercise. India’s golden mantra towards China is still rooted in
Russian proverb “Trust, but verify”, the signature phrase of Ronald Regan!!
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