Fresh Momentum in India-Russia Partnership Unsettles the West

Putting to rest speculations of India’s diminishing ties with Russia, PM Narendra Modi made Moscow his first destination after his historic re-election for the third consecutive term. His two-day visit, after a gap of five years restored the practice of Annual Summits disrupted due to Covid and Ukraine war and reinforced India’s commitment to a “Strategic and Privileged Strategic Partnership” with Russia.

In anticipation of Western scrutiny of Modi 3.0 major diplomatic engagement, India attended the Ukraine Peace Summit in Switzerland to reiterate its support for a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine conflict but rightly refrained from signing the communique. Ahead of the Peace Summit, PM Modi met President Zelensky at the G7 summit, shook hands and reiterated India’s belief in a “human-centric approach”. Though the West has generously appreciated Modi’s gentle chiding of Putin in a meeting along the sidelines of the 2022 Samarkand SCO Summit, “this is the not era of war”, Washington’s listlessness was evident in a press briefing ahead of Modi’s departure.

Modi’s first visit in his third term closely watched by the West was replete with impressive optics. Received by the first Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov, Modi was extended a spectacular guard of honour at the airport. In a rare gesture, Manturov later accompanied the Prime Minister to the Hotel in the same vehicle. For all the rumours of India-Russia engagement getting short shrift, Modi and Putin met 16 times in the last 10 years.

Informal talks have become a new precedent for India-Russia bilateral engagement. Warmly received by President Putin at his residence, Novo-Ogaryavo the leaders exchanged a hug and set the tone for engagement with informal discussions on wide-ranging issues on bilateral and regional developments. Modi-Putin bonhomie quickly sparked sharp criticism from strategic analysts and President Zelensky lashed out at PM Modi for embracing a ‘war criminal’. Fraught with convergences, the visit timed around the 75^th anniversary of NATO and the unfortunate Russian missile attack on a children's hospital in Kyiv gathered much ennui.

Re-enunciating India’s solution of diplomacy and dialogue, in his opening televised remarks ahead of the talks, Modi said, “Be it war, conflicts, terror attacks- everyone who believes in humanity is pained when there is loss of lives. But when innocent children are murdered, when we see innocent children dying, it is heart-wrenching”¹. Emphasising the need for a peaceful resolution, Modi remarked, “For a bright future of the future generations, peace is most essential. No solution is possible on the battlefield. Solutions and peace talks are not successful in the midst of bombs, guns and bullets and we have to find the path to peace through dialogue”².

The rough tide of geopolitical turbulences has led to major reconfigurations in the World order. The Ukraine War and the accompanying punitive sanctions regime against Russia have further exacerbated the existing fault lines and divide. Beset with energy security issues, China, India, Indonesia and several Global South countries declined to comply with the Western sanctions.

Despite the Western pressure, India continued to source its energy supplies from Russia prioritising India’s needs. In fact, making the best of the Russian oil discounts India increased its imports rising to second in the chart after China. Additionally, India abstained voted against Russia in the UN and never openly condemned Russia for the Ukraine war. Given India’s longstanding relations with Russia and its reluctance to “isolate” Russia, the West has become very critical of India. India’s Ukraine dilemma caused a latent disquiet despite deepening strategic, economic and military relations with the US.

Though Moscow watches with a wry eye at India’s growing engagement with the US, Russia entered the Chinese orbit due to Western isolation and forged a ‘limitless friendship’ has its own axes to grind with Beijing. Beijing's growing presence in Central Asia, the traditional backyard of Russia and its attempts to turn multilateral forums like SCO and BRICS into a Chinese club hasn’t gone well with Moscow. Taking directly on the China challenge, India spurned the China-dominated SCO summit and intends to help Russia with the upcoming BRICS summit in October. Russia sees India as a counterbalance. India, which has its own trepidations about Sino-Russian bonhomie anticipates that Russia can temper Chinese behaviour.

While a Sino-Russian partnership can churn out a potent anti-Western axis, the past hostilities between the countries and the present imperialist ambitions make the countries suspicious of each other. Conscious of burgeoning Beijing’s infiltration into its strategic backyard under the grab of BRI with reports of a secret Chinese military base in Tajikistan conforming to its worst fears, Russia is gradually resuscitating old ties. Reviving the decades-old mutual defence agreement with North Korea is a Russian strategy to tame the Dragon.

Concomitantly for Russia, a robust strategic partnership with India will serve as a geopolitical hedge amid the complex, challenging, uncertain geopolitical situations. Time-tested, trusted, long-standing bilateral ties with Russia will bode well for India’s defense preparedness, energy security and as an alternate source of technology. Cementing the partnership, leaders at the 22^nd India-Russia Summit took stock of the ‘multi-faceted, mutually beneficial and sustainable long term ties’³.

The bilateral trade which has exceeded the target of $30 billion for 2025 and hovered at $65 billion disproportionately in favour of Russia, became the high point of bilateral discussions.  After jointly agreeing on identifying strategic areas of economic cooperation for a balanced trade⁴, leaders have instructed concerned agencies to develop Programme for Development of Promising areas of Russia-India cooperation till 2030 (Programme 2030). Stressing the need to increase Indian exports countries have set a new target of $100 billion by 2030.

Countries also agreed to settle trade payments in national currencies, enhance interoperability of financing messaging systems and commence FTA agreement negotiations between India and Eurasia Economic Union (EEU). Leaders recognised the urgent need to expedite connectivity corridors- Chennai- Vladivostok corridor, International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and North Sea Route.

In a major diplomatic victory acting on PM Modi’s plea, President Putin approved the early release of the Indian nationals misled to join the Russian Army. Under the ambit of military and military-technical cooperation, in a huge fillip to Make in India, countries decided to conduct joint research and development, the co-development and joint production of advanced technologies, transfer of technology and export to mutually friendly third countries.

Post-Ukraine War, Russia has emerged as a guarantor of energy security with cooperation like hydrocarbons, coking coal and nuclear reactors. Building on the Kudanakulam success, countries are now identifying a new site for VVER-1200 reactor. In all, nine MoUs were signed which included- MoU on environment, forest and climate change; cartography; research cooperation in polar regions; broadcasting; investment promotion; cooperation between arbitration bodies for settling civil law commercial disputes; pharmacopeia and a programme of cooperation in trade, investment and economic spheres with the Far East for 2024-2029⁵.

Built on the foundation of a panoply of cooperation that is constantly expanding to unlock its full potential, India-Russia ties have remained resilient. Nurtured with close engagement, regular high-level exchanges and steered by numerous Joint Working Groups the partnership has accumulated strategic salience to navigate geopolitical uncertainties. Modi’s visit has infused a fresh momentum to the age-old historical relationship which is unsettling the US. The US Ambassador Eric Garcetti’s remarks, “I know that India likes its strategic autonomy, but in times of conflict, there is no such thing as strategic autonomy”⁶ make it loud and clear.

Unfortunately, what the West fails to realise is that a democratic India can be a potent mediator in Russia-Ukraine War.

 

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