India’s Predicament on Climate Change

With the US and China sealing agreement on the carbon emissions recently, spot light turns to India as EU had pledged to cut down its emissions by 40% below 1990 levels by 2030.  Though India has still a year to make such a commitment to UN, Prime Minister Modi’s keen interest in conservation of nature and his passionate e-book in 2011: A convenient Action: Gujarat’s response to challenges of climate changes has raised hopes internationally about India’s committal towards climate change. India is the third largest emitter of green house gases after the US and China. The onus is high on India but the situation is quite daunting. India with second largest population in the World and nearly 25% of people lacking the access to power supply its reliability on coal had become inevitable leading to an inadvertent increase in global emissions. Fortunately, it is on the path of meeting the pledge made at the UN climate talks in Copenhagen 2009 of reducing the amount of carbon released for the same amount economic output 20 to 25 % over 2005 levels by 2020.

The fact remains that India is not China. China has almost reached the peak of its economic growth while India has embarked on the growth trajectory. While the percentage of population thriving on $1.25 a day (an International standard to measure poverty) in China is 6% it is 25% in India. Though coal consumption has surged last year in India, its per capita carbon emissions are miniscule 1.9 tonnes per person as against 7.2 for China and 16.4 in the US. China has promised to peak out its emissions by 2030 at the rate of 12 tons of carbon emission per person per year. But it hasn’t clearly indicated how it is going to attain the target. According to climate experts, if India intends to follow similar analogy, India doesn’t have to do anything.

India made a commitment at the UN of Development without destruction accentuating its strong commitment to increase its wind energy and solar energy capacity by 5 times over the next five and increase the efficiency of its automobiles, appliances and buildings.  India partnered with the US in 2009 for developing clean energy technologies. A new programme to scale up the renewable energy integration to power grids received a major fillip during Modi’s recent visit to the US.

But another cause of concern for environmentalists is the government’s policy to rev up power generation by boosting the domestic coal production. Coal is India’s primary source of energy accounting to 59%. To fuel India’s growth engine new government intends to ramp up coal production and Coal India has been asked to double its output to 1 billion tonnes by 2019. Also India intends to drastically cut down on the import of coal from Indonesia, South Africa, and Australia accruing major financial gains to the country. But the quality of domestic coal is poor with high ash content polluting two times more than the imported coal.  Hence India is pushing for renewable sources like solar technology, nuclear energy and wind energy. Though India has vast potential for Solar and wind technologies they are still in infancy.

Lima climate talks, scheduled for Dec 1^st will lay ground work for climate treaty to be ratified at Paris in Dec 2015 and will be implemented from 2020. The talks spanning 15 days will run on three parallel tracks with negotiations occurring over dozens of meetings followed by numerous close-door confabulations. While the 1995 Kyoto Protocol bound only developed countries which account for 40% of emissions, but the current round of commitments at Lima, scheduled to be submitted at United Nations Frame Work on Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) by March would include all the major covering up to 80% of global emissions.

The talks will witness rigorous tussle between the developed and developing countries majorly over the promised financial commitment and pledging for enhanced reduction of carbon emissions. Besides there will be three major tracks- a pre-2020 track, what to commit track and Elements of Paris Protocol 2015. The Pre-2020 track focuses on the unfinished tasks of the developed countries both in terms of reduction of carbon emissions and mobilisation of financial fund of $100 billion per year and technological support pledged for the poor and developing countries. The less the developed countries accomplish before 2020, more will be the amount of burden shifted to the developing countries in the post-2020 era. These talks are the last chance for the developing countries to push the rich countries for more action; else the burden will be off loaded and distributed equally to all nations in the 2015 agreement. Under what to commit nations would have to contribute for climate change by making intended nationally determined contributions (INDC). Rich countries are keen that it should be limited to reduction of carbon emissions (mitigation). They are interested primarily in mitigation one of the pillars of UN talks belying other aspects-adaptation, finance and technology. Third and the most important track is designing the elements of 2015 agreement  which should set a level playing ground for all nations. During the Lima talks, India’s emphasis would be on Common But Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR) and operationalising the Green Climate Fund.

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A Scientific Report on Climate Change

Recently UN backed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the authentic scientific opinion clearly indicated that extreme change in climate is product human activity. It vouched for 95% probability of human interference for the climatic changes. While in its first assessment in 1990, it mildly hinted at increase in air temperature to be reason for natural variability, in its current fifth assessment scientists are certain that climate change is man-made.

In fact many factors influence the climate but levels of Carbon dioxide (CO2) are more detrimental as it constantly absorbs infra-red heat at a higher rate than nitrogen and oxygen other major components of atmosphere. As the levels of CO2 increases, atmosphere tends to warm up. At the start of Industrial revolution in 1880 the levels of CO2 were 280 ppm (parts per million) now the concentration has exceeded 400ppm. Apart from CO2, black and suspended particulates like aerosols have amplified the affects of CO2. If the levels of CO2 doubles from those in 1880, global temperature would increase by 1C bringing about a drastic change in climate. Revelations of the report are alarming- average surface temperature has already increased by 0.85 C over the period of 1880 to 2012; existing levels of three green house gases- CO2, methane and nitrous oxide are highest in the last 800,000 years; Global sea level rose by 19cm from 1901 to 2010. The period of 1983-2012 was the warmest 30 year period in the last 1400 years.  The acidity of ocean surface has risen by 26% since the industrial revolution. This has greatly impacted the Arctic Circle whose glaciers are shrinking by over 4% every year. Antarctica and Greenland too are experiencing a serious depletion of the ice mass. Marine life is slowly moving to poles for cooler waters. Though the impact of climate change on human health couldn’t be detected, there has been sharp decline in yields of Maize and Wheat. Rice, Soybeans and other staple grains were not affected.

To sum up, the committee recommended total phasing out of fossil fuels in power generation by 2100 and to reduce their use by 20% by 2050 to avoid calamitous consequences of climate change. Predictably, these recommendations have been rejected by the representatives of Saudi Arabia and other oil exporting countries.

Unlike other phenomenon, climate has a long response times. Actions taken now will have an impact decade later. The consequence of the present change has been the result of the accumulations of the green house gases over a period of time. The report has low confidence in stating that frequency and size of the floods are influenced by climate change for the lack of proper records of the severe weather events in the past.

India has been placed the top 20 nations at the risk of the potential climate change. India with its 7500 kilometres coastline can ill afford to bear the brunt. Nearly 58% of the population of India depend directly on agriculture, fisheries, poultry and other allied activities. A minimal disturbance in climate can topple their livelihoods. The most recent extreme weather conditions in form tropical cyclones, cloud bursts and severe down pours made severe dent on Indian economy.

India is now seriously contemplating the strategic shift in talks for the upcoming global meet at Paris and mulls on delinking India’s position from China. Since China is currently the highest carbon emitter and falls in the same league as the developed nations. It attributes the carbon emissions to production activities related to exports. The bold stance is aimed at protecting nation’s interests while pursuing a pro-active role during negotiations. India refuses to yield to predicament of developed countries that shifted the onerous task of pledging for reduction of emissions by developing countries first. India is intent on climate discussions in the upcoming G-20 summit despite serious reservations by China. Though India would take stand of BASIC group (Brazil, Australia, South Africa, India and China) of countries on broader issues it might take a different stand on specific issues which may affect country’s economic interests. It is time that India takes a clear position ahead of the Lima talks where it will insist on adaptation than on mitigation (emission cut). New government has expressed its strong desire to promote low carbon emission technologies. But intent is to be followed by actions for a real change to occur.

 

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Jammu Kashmir Floods: A cataclysm Exacerbated By Human Activities

The state of Jammu & Kashmir has been hit by worst floods of 109 years and once again the country is caught off guard to meet the disaster. A massive cloud burst of Uttarakhand last year left over 6500 dead and flattened several hundreds of villages failed to resuscitate our government to step up weather forecasting services across the country. With the result, it has been nearly 10 days since the floods wrecked havoc in Southern Jammu and still lakhs of people are left stranded in flooded waters, several villages are still lying submerged and even phone connectivity couldn’t be restored to hinterlands. Reports suggest that state government’s machinery has been completely paralysed and it may take a month’s time for offices to even start functioning. All these incidents clearly depict the extent of deluge the state is reeling under.

Of late India has been experiencing extreme weather events at regular intervals. The massive floods of Mumbai 2005, cloud burst in Leh 2010, tragedy in Uttarakhand in 2013, landslides in Pune 2014 and now the floods in Kashmir have led to loss of lives of several thousands and entailed a severe damage of property of tens of thousands of crores. Though the torrential rains and nature’s fury might have been the reason for this calamity, it was more exacerbated by unscrupulous deforestation which aggravated the magnitude of disaster. Under the dissimulation of enhancing the economic activities in the green valley, trees have been ruthlessly cut down. Deforestation led to rapid erosion of the fertile top soil and its subsequent accumulation in the river beds, drastically reduced the water carrying capacity of rivers. In certain regions, massive construction activities have changed the course of major rivers. Deforestation has also reduced the water-holding capacity of lands in Kashmir. Since rivers beds have been hot seats of human habitation, rivers like Jhelum have soon turned into dumping beds of sewage.

According to Sunita Narain, head of the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE),- intensification of the rainfall due to the climate change and the mammoth development activities undermining the drainage system have been the root cause for the catastrophe that stuck Kashmir. Srinagar’s interlinked lakes, Dal- Wular and Nagin were designed to act as natural sponge to absorb the massive inflow and prevent flooding. Indiscriminate human activities crippled this exquisite network of lakes with the result, the region is reeling under the worst ever inundation. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of United Nations (IPCC) in its report warned India to view a natural disaster not as a standalone event of nature’s fury but to discern the role played by the complacent development policies that magnify the devastation in the event of such calamities. It predicted that India would be affected by intense weather events, a consequence of accelerated climate changes. Disaster management officials lamented that unscientific design of roads and bridges, commercial activities on river banks and absence of embankments had aggravated the fury of the rivers Jhelum, Chenab and Tawi. Making matters worse, the state doesn’t even have a flood forecasting system.

India has been ignoring the repeated warnings of spiking of the extreme weather events like intense droughts, floods of cyclones from an average just 2.5 events in 1900-09 to 350 in 2000-2010. It is welcome relief that government finally bid farewell to its long phase of apathy and inaction and has resolved to study the reason behind the unusually heavy rainfall and its links to climate change in South Asian region under the Ministry of earth sciences. The intended study would focus on the interaction of western disturbance and the South West Monsoon which led to the catastrophe in Leh, Uttarakhand and Kashmir. Efforts are on to install a Doppler radar in Srinagar that can forecast extreme weather conditions like extremely high rainfall and issue warnings of thunder storms in advance. Early warnings can reduce the scale of destruction as disaster management machinery can be revved up.

The effects of climate change are imminent and India can no longer afford to have an Ostrich like approach to climate change. Scientific data of Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology indicates that events with high rainfall (more than 100mm per day) and very heavy rainfall (more than 150 mm) have been on a rise while moderate events (5-100mm) have reduced. Even the IPCC Assessment Report (AR5) predicted that India will get more rainfall in less number of days and that extreme precipitation during monsoon would also increase. All these tragedies indicate that India is no longer impenetrable to climate changes. If issues of climate change are resolved on with war footing strategies, more disasters might loom our land.

 

 

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Cataclysmic Glacier Melt Down

Two sections of people are inimitable for their responses to the changes in environment. The first group contains resolute environmentalists, perturbed by deviations in the climate and environment. While the other section simply override thoughts of the impending calamities of global warming and abuse of environment. But this indifferent attitude needs to be shunned as studies published in reputed International journals Geophysical Research Letters and Science recently had warned about imminent collapse of glaciers. Study revealed that the grounding line of Pine Island glacier and Thwaites Glacier retreated over 31km and 14km respectively during the period of 1992 to 2012. As the grounding line starts shrinking it become exposed to sea water wherein glacier melting is accelerated. Also the ice at the farther end starts pushing more quickly resulting in thinning of glacier. At least 6 glaciers that hold ice having capacity to increase the sea level by 4-13 ft have started melting consistently every year at significant rates. Computer modelling of the Thwaites Glacier, an early-collapsing glacier in West Antarctica indicated that changes have become irreversible or reached a point of no return. If the thawing of the glacier picks up speed, it has potential to increase the sea level by 1mm every year. Although it is a long drawn process but their eventual collapse is unstoppable.

As the leviathan glaciers of west Antarctica have started melting it would trigger a chain reaction. As opposed to popular belief, glacier melting is not triggered by general temperature rise. But the collapse is accelerated by strong winds pulling warm waters from oceans resulting in melting of the thick ice sheets from below. Global warming primarily contributed to strengthening of winds and the effect is magnified by holes in Ozone layer over Antarctica. Hence glacier thinning is linked to climate change and emissions in the years to come might pave way for a rapid collapse of these glaciers. If the humongous ice sheets were to be melt the sea level would rise by 4-13 feet submerging most of the countries along the coasts.

The recent trail of disastrous avalanches on the Himalayan terrain is the fall out of glacier melting. The deadly disaster claimed lives of 16 mountaineers last month following which the annual expedition to Mt. Everest has been suspended by Nepal. The annual terrain exploration expedition generated revenue worth $ 3.4 million to the impoverished nation in lieu of permit fees. Mountain glaciers account to 1% of frozen ice and have potential to increase sea level by 1-2 ft. These glaciers are located in regions where ambient temperatures are higher. So they tend to melt away faster than its counterparts at poles. Raising global temperatures have reduced Nepal’s glaciers by a quarter. Glacier melt down more often results in numerous flash floods, avalanches and landslides effecting lives of millions of mountain dwellers and people living in the low lying remote villages. Himalayan glaciers are life line of major Asiatic rivers and over a billion people living along these river basins. Raising temperatures especially in this part of the world have increased the frequency of flash floods. The most horrendous devastation that ravaged Uttarakhand killing over 5700 people last year has been caused by the meltdown of a glacier Chorabari at 3800 ft and subsequent eruption of Mandakini River. Often the melt down accumulates as lake at the base of the glaciers and sudden breakdown of the basins inundates the downstream villages. Although the meltdown of glaciers may initially increase the rundown of the rivers but if they melt fast, their effects would be perilous to the entire region.

Satellite images from the NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and IceSat indicated that glaciers are melting away releasing 260 billion metric tons of water every year. The members of the Dark Snow Project reported an increase in Arctic melt down in Greenland. It has 10% of World’s ice and can cause an increase in sea level by 23 ft. Meltdown has increased partly due to the increase in temperature, black carbon soot deposited by forest fires and industrial pollution. Albedo or the ability to reflect sun’s rays into space has decreased as the ice was blackened due to the deposition of black soot from forest fires. Further the warm waters flowing around the glaciers are enhancing melting. A complete melt down of all glaciers would increase sea level by 215 ft. Scientists fear that glacier melting is an irreversible process.

Research indicates that by the year 2100, glaciers might increase of sea level by 30-40 cm drastically affecting lives of 100 million people who live within a meter of sea level. Glacier water acts as thermal regulator by controlling the water temperatures, aquatic life and snow cover. These water supplies have a direct impact on agriculture, its allied activities and power generation. Glacier melt down might result in flooding in wet season and dry drought in the summers. Global warming has resulted in disappearance of most of the glaciers in British Columbia of West Canada as well.

Glaciers are rivers of ice frozen from snow in the colder regions. The snow freezes into granular, frozen ice called firn. This hardens further to form glaciers which move around the sides of mountains. Antarctica has the largest existing frozen ice mass. East Antarctica is colder and higher and doesn’t melt. Increased global warming has also led to an increase in snowfall thus containing the melting losses. But the ice in West Antarctica, has started showing signs of rapid melting. Scientists believe that as long as the emissions of heat trapping Carbon dioxide increases melting would continue.

Increased emissions of gases like carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide are changing the atmospheric flux. During early 1970’s when the effects of global warming have been enunciated people were sceptical about its impact even. Only few were worried about the carbon foot print. But as the vicious effects of global warming have become more imminent, governments and corporations are vouching for stringent environmental conservation laws. The momentum is picking up but a lot needs to be done to avert the catastrophic effects of glacier meltdown.

 

 

 

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