PM Modi’s two-day visit to Japan to attend the 15th Annual India-Japan summit meeting comes amid crucial geopolitical flux. At a time when President Trump seeks to upend the world order, nations are resetting their ties to cope with the looming uncertainties. Blighted by unpredictability, nations are reexploring bilateral partnerships and seeking to anchor ties based on mutual trust and respect.
Trump’s
threatening tariffs and motivated secondary sanctions have propelled nations to
reshape their partnership with a transformative agenda. Ending up with a short
end of the stick, Japan, the US ally since World War II, responded to India's
alacrity to strengthen the bilateral ties amid looming ‘Trumpian Disorder’. With
close to eight decades of establishing diplomatic ties, India and Japan have a
longstanding friendship and goodwill.
Amid the ever-changing dynamics of geopolitical power games,
trusted partnerships have always been pillars of stability. Positively
reorienting the convergence of interests and strategic outlook, India and Japan
have laid down a 10-year strategic roadmap to weather the geopolitical
headwinds.
Japan has been a part of India’s journey in Viksit and
Atmanirbhar Bharat. Rooted in their commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific
(FOIP), upholding the rules-based order, and seeking to elevate the old
friendship, leaders have taken a quantum leap in terms of enhancing
cooperation. In these tumultuous times when lack of mutual respect and
tolerance to sensitivities are destabilising ties, known for its discreet
diplomacy of taking up differences privately, harmonising mature relationships,
India and Japan have unveiled a joint statement -“Partnerships For security and
prosperity of our next generation”.
Trump’s tariff fury and volatile foreign policy have raised
concerns about America’s credibility in upholding the world order and its
commitments to nations. Taking its brinkmanship to the next level, the US has
tried to corner India. However, turning the adversity into an opportunity, PM
Modi, in his address to the India-Japan Economic Forum at Tokyo, highlighted
India’s transformation, asserting, “capital in India doesn’t just grow, it
multiplies”, underscoring its stable economic rating.
Reinforcing Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC)’s testament to India as the
most ‘promising’ investment destination, PM Modi extended an invitation to
Japanese businesses to India. Be it official Development Assistance (ODA),
metros, manufacturing, AI, high-speed rail, urban renewal, smart cities
project, India-Japan partnership reflects mutual trust. Japanese investment,
though modest ($34 billion), has great strategic weight. It is aligned with
India’s long-term priorities like Make in India, Digital India, Startup India, renewable
energy, and advanced manufacturing. In the last two years, the Japanese private
sector has announced 150 MoUs worth $13 billion with India in automotive,
energy, aerospace, semiconductors and human resources.
Experiencing
decades of prolonged economic stagnation emanating from the post-Plaza Accord,
leading to a period of “Lost Decades”, Japan has never recovered from the asset
bubble collapse. Further, economic mismanagement, demographic decline and an ageing
population have exacerbated its economic woes.
The recent
trade deal with the Trump administration of lower tariff slabs in exchange for
an investment pledge has further left Tokyo high and dry, with Trump claiming
the package as “our money to invest, as we like”. Further, surrounded by
nuclear powers, in the highly contested Indo-Pacific theatre, Trump’s wavering
security pledges have spurred debate among the US allies about American
willingness to come to their aid in a conflict. Ahead of PM Modi’s visit
Japanese trade negotiator scrapped a US trip, delaying the finalisation of $500
billion investment plan.
Once bitten, twice shy, Tokyo is also
reassessing its options on economic engagement and security. PM Modi’s assurances
couldn’t have been more timely. Positioning India as a ‘stabilising power’, PM
Modi said, “The world is not just watching India, it is counting on
India. Japan is a tech powerhouse and India is a talent powerhouse. We both
agree that as two major economies and vibrant democracies, our partnership is
very important not only for our two countries, but also for global peace and
stability”.
Indeed, the timing of PM
Modi’s visit to Japan ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) has
a strategic imperative. Amid the perception that Trump’s tariffs have pushed
India into China’s lap, the annual summit meeting with Japan is a strong signal
and assurance of New Delhi’s relevance in the shifting regional balance. It is
a message that the India-Japan partnership will continue to remain as a
counterweight to the muscular expansionism of China.
India and Japan elevated their
ties to a “Special Strategic and global partnership” in 2014, and ever since,
PM Modi has travelled to Japan for the annual summits eight times. With over 70
dialogue mechanisms and working groups, countries have intensely engaged with a
myriad of ministries, departments, and agencies. Building on these
accomplishments and leveraging respective strengths and complementarities, both
sides have identified three core areas- bolstering defence and security, reinforcing
economic partnership and deepening people-to-people ties.
With unsettled territorial issues with China, South Korea
and Russia, Japan is facing mounting geopolitical challenges. Given its
security vulnerabilities, Japan is seeking to deepen a strategic defence and
security partnership with India. As a first step, to promote interoperability
and synergy between defence forces and defence capabilities. Along with
exploring cooperation mechanisms for defence co-production, co-development
countries are planning to promote dialogue between Joint Staffs, maritime
cooperation, cooperation in counterterrorism, peacekeeping operations, cyber
defence and collaboration between special operations units.
Adopting a joint vision
for the next decade, countries decided on ‘whole of nation lines’ to steer
partnership through eight pillars. These are next-generation economic
partnership, economic security partnership, mobility, ecological legacies,
technology and innovative partnerships, next-generation health, people-to-people
partnership and state-prefecture partnerships.
For credible and effective
implementation of the initiatives, countries have evolved an action plan for
India-Japan Human Resource Exchange and Cooperation and a Joint Declaration on
security cooperation. Grappling with a severe labour shortage due to declining
populations, leveraging complementarities, countries rolled out an Action Plan
for talent mobility and a two-way exchange of 5,00,000 personnel, including
50,000 skilled workers over a five-year time frame under 16 categories.
Being two strong
democracies in the Indo-Pacific region with converging security threats, India
and Japan are natural partners. The defining speech of PM Shinzo Abe,
“Confluences of Two Seas”, is credited as the guiding vision for a Free and
Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP).
Despite an enduring friendship, the bilateral trade is a
marginal $23 billion tilted in favour of Japan. To enhance, diversify economic
cooperation and make it more forward-looking, countries are reviewing the
Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) signed in 2011. Leaders
have set a private investment target of JPY 10 trillion ($68 billion) spread
over a decade in key sectors like semiconductors, critical minerals, defence
and technology.
Recognising shared interests in safeguarding critical
economic interests and factoring
geopolitical realities and security configurations, countries have widely
expanded the arena of cooperation.
To secure
and strengthen supply chains in critical goods and sectors, countries decided
to accelerate cooperation in critical and emerging technologies, telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, critical minerals,
semiconductors and clean energy. This heightened priority complements
the existing collective partnership for resilience on semiconductors and
critical minerals, through the Quad’s Supply Chain Contingency Network and
Minerals Security Partnership.
Additionally, countries are working together through the Biopharmaceutical
Alliance for building reliable supply chains and the India-led Global Biofuels
Alliance to realise their climate change commitments.
Elevating
symbolic goodwill to practical partnership, countries have signed a raft of
agreements. The enormity of the aspirations and the ambitious vision set by the
leaders is truly overwhelming. The Indian and Japanese Coast Guard signed a
Memorandum of Cooperation. Countries have also signed MoC in Mineral
Resources, Joint Crediting Mechanism and Cultural Exchange.
Countries inked a Joint Declaration of Intent on Clean
Hydrogen and Ammonia (towards net zero economy) and several MoUs - India-Japan
Digital Partnership 2.0, environmental cooperation, decentralised domestic
waste management, diplomats' training, next generation mobility partnership, Science
& Technology (first of its kind) and extended an MoU on India Beamline at the
Photon Factory, KEK for six years.
Strengthening the Lunar Polar Expedition (LUPEX), countries
sealed an Implementing Arrangement between ISRO and JAXA- Japan Aerospace
Exploration Agency, for a landmark collaboration on Chandrayaan 5. Both sides launched the India-Japan
AI initiative, and PM Modi extended an invitation to the Japanese counterpart
for the Open AI Summit held in India.
At the Annual Summit, countries launched a Track 1.5
dialogue of think-tanks to promote wider appreciation of security challenges
and announced an annual dialogue of National Security Advisers (NSAs). India opened a consulate in Fukuoka with
plans to establish business forums in the regions of Kansai and Kyushu
to strengthen business, people-to-people and cultural linkages.
India permitted Japan, the first foreign development
partner, to build infrastructure projects in India’s sensitive North East
region. Trust and reliability are the bedrock of the India-Japan relationship.
Synchronising India’s vision of Mutual and Holistic Advancement for Security
and Growth Across Regions (MAHASAGAR) with Japan’s Economic Region Initiative
of Indian Ocean and Africa, countries plan to invigorate business
collaborations in South Asia and Africa. This arrangement can serve as a
challenger to China’s BRI and counterbalance Beijing’s posturing as the leader
of the ‘Global South’.
Alongside, to foster political trust, the State-Prefecture
relationships are established between UP and Yamanashi, AP and Toyama, TN and
Ehime, Gujarat and Shizuoka, with high-level exchanges between states and
prefectures, including three visits in each direction, being explored. Countries
also launched the India-Japan SME Forum and issued the Economic Security
Factsheet outlining ongoing collaborations in strategic sectors.
The bilateral talks, which lasted for over two hours, apart
from reviewing the bilateral cooperation, focused on regional and global
issues. Countries expressed concerns over the situation in the East China
Sea and South China Sea. They opposed unilateral action that endangers the
freedom of navigation and overflight, a change in the status quo, and called
for dispute resolution in accordance with the UN Convention on the Law of the
Sea (UNCLOS). They condemned the Pahalgam attacks and took note of the UNSC
Monitoring Report's mention of the Resistance Front (TRF), condemned nuclear
aspirations of North Korea and destabilising missile testing, the worsening
situation in Myanmar and urged a return to democracy. They welcomed the
Israel-Iran ceasefire, expressed support for a just and lasting peace in
Ukraine, and supported each other’s candidature for a seat on the UNSC.
PM Modi concluded his trip with a visit to Tokyo Electron
Factory, the leading semiconductor equipment manufacturer in Miyagi prefecture,
by train, accompanied by PM Shigeru Ishiba. Later, PM Modi addressed a group of
governors from prefectures.
Amidst a
rapidly evolving and volatile geopolitical landscape, India and Japan are consolidating
the old partnership, imparting a strategic dynamism. Infusing new vigour into
the longstanding friendship, countries are gearing up to navigate global
challenges together. Demonstrating a new resolve and shared commitment, countries
are actively seeking new avenues to harness their complementary strengths. With
a focus on unlocking the untapped potential, leaders are ushering the
partnership into a new phase for tangible benefits and mutually beneficial
outcomes.
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