India’s Assertive Diplomacy Takes Centre Stage at Tianjin

PM Modi visited China after a gap of seven years to attend the 25^th Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meeting at Tianjin. His participation at the SCO Summit has been more or less regular; however, the 2025 SCO Summit dominated the headlines of international media. Coming in the wake of Trump’s extortionist tariffs on India and PM Modi’s refusal to capitulate, his engagement with SCO leaders, especially with President Xi and President Putin, has stimulated outsized attention.

Cutting through the clutter of op-eds galore, it is vital to decipher the prominence of his trip to Tianjin. Miffed by India’s defiance, the MAGA extremists have especially been egregiously presumptuous about the India-China reset at Tianjin. But PM Modi’s enthusiastic presence at the SCO has several facets to it.

Restabilisation of ties with China post-Galwan clashes began in October 2024 after the complete disengagement of troops in Eastern Ladakh. At the Kazan BRICS meeting, leaders agreed to “explore a fair, reasonable and mutually acceptable solution to the boundary question”. Subsequently, India and China held the 23^rd round of talks of Special Representatives of India and China on the Boundary Question (SR) in December 2024 after a gap of five years. SR Dialogue was suspended after the Galwan clashes. The last SR Dialogue was held in New Delhi in December 2019.

During the border standoff along the LAC, discussions at the diplomatic level were conducted through the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China Border Affairs (WMCC) and its military counterpart Senior Highest Military Commanders Meeting (SHMC). 17 rounds of WMCC and 21 rounds of SHMC meetings took place during the entire duration of disengagement.

The latest round, the 34^th iteration of WMCC in July, “expressed satisfaction with the general prevalence of peace and tranquillity in the border areas, leading to gradual normalisation of bilateral relations”. The 24^th round SR talks in August, steered by India’s Ajit Doval and China’s Wang Yi, agreed on- “Setting up an Expert Group, under the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China Border Affairs (WMCC), to explore Early Harvest in boundary delimitation in the India-China border areas”. Additionally, they announced the resumption of direct flights, facilitation of visas and trade & investment flows, expansion of Mt. Kailash Yatra and re-opening of border trade through Lipulekh Pass, Shipki La Pass and Nathu La Pass.

A cautious normalisation of ties with China is already underway. Hence, the portrayal of PM Modi and President Xi’s meeting being propelled by Trump’s trade tantrums is misplaced. However, tariff weaponisation has inadvertently catalysed a recalibration. Making no secret of the tenuous global trade landscape, at the bilateral talks, Xi said, “The world today is swept by once-in-a-century transformations. The international situation is both fluid and chaotic. China and India are two ancient civilisations in the east, we are the world’s two most populous countries, and we are also the oldest members of the Global South”.  

For more than four years, India has diligently engaged in multiple rounds of dialogue with China, aiming for a full withdrawal of troops from the friction points- Demchok and Despang. Drawing lessons from earlier missteps, India has recalibrated its diplomatic approach with greater precision. China's strategy of prolonged negotiations—often designed to wear down its adversaries—demands unwavering patience and resilience. Through patient and persevering diplomacy, India has ultimately succeeded in breaking through the impasse. Hence, Xi understands that India is not an easy pushover. Beijing only respects strength. India’s defiance and resistance to Trump’s unwarranted economic coercion is a signal not only to Washington, but to Beijing also.

Entangled in a trade war with the US, China believes that a temporary reset with India is in its best interest. Battling with poor domestic consumption, trade imbalances, an ageing population and pension liabilities, China is keen on ramping up economic engagement with India. This aligns with India’s attempts to diversify trade to offset tariff pressure and strengthen its manufacturing capabilities. Given India’s size, growth potential and expanding markets, China is forthcoming about rapprochement with India. While Washington chose not to accept this reality to its detriment, Beijing is quick to grasp this.

Post-SCO, global media is awash with pictures of bonhomie between the leaders of India, Russia and China. Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb made a pointed remark, “My message, not only to my European colleagues, but especially to the United States, is that if we don't derive a more cooperative and dignified foreign policy towards Global South, the likes of India, we are going to lose this game”. The emergence of a vibrant Global South can no longer be ignored. Xi’s implicit reference to India and China as members of the Global South underscores the same.

Hinting at recalibration, PM Modi stated, “A stable relationship and cooperation between India and China and their 2.8 billion people on the basis of mutual respect, mutual interest and mutual sensitivity are necessary for the growth and development of the two countries, as well as for a multipolar world and a multi-polar Asia befitting the trends of the 21st century”. Interestingly, PM Modi’s subtle invocation of Asian solidarity for a constructive partnership finds a resonance with President Xi’s summary statement, “It is the right choice for both sides to be friends who have good neighbourly and amicable ties, partners who enable each other’s success, and to have the dragon and the elephant dance together”.

The diplomatic trope, “the dragon and the elephant dance together”, has been more flourish than reality. However, the affirmation from leaders that “the two countries were development partners and not rivals, and that their differences should not turn into disputes”. While India is willing to be a partner in reshaping Asian destiny, its discomfort with China runs deep. India treats both China’s weaponisation of strategic supplies like speciality fertilisers, rare-earth magnets, and tunnel boring machines and Trump’s tariffs and secondary sanctions with equal scepticism and distrust.

Though India is reconsidering the FDI cap and easing its position on Chinese investment in the electronic manufacturing sector to jack up production, it is equally wary of Beijing’s economic entrenchment. The unresolved border dispute, recurring standoffs, blatant violation of mutual agreements, together with Beijing’s containment policy of India, geopolitical competition in the strategic Indian Ocean Region, continue to remain persistent irritants in the relationship.

Beijing’s attempts to emerge as a reliable foreign force in South Asia through its informal tracks with Myanmar and promotion of multilaterals between Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh haven’t escaped India’s attention. China has drawn the Maldives, Nepal, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka into the SCO and is pushing Bangladesh to join. Alongside, Beijing is also weaving an alternative to SAARC without India in the South Asian region.

China's military intelligence support to Pakistan during Operation Sindoor, along with its repeated obstruction of UN sanctions against the Resistance Force (TRF) and its veto of global terrorist designations for five Pakistani nationals at the UNSC, continues to serve as a stark warning to Indian policymakers. These actions highlight the complex web of geopolitical alignments, where India’s current decisions are shaped not just by regional concerns but by the broader strategic calculus of global power dynamics.

Trump’s untrammelled bullying is shifting the world order. Seeking self-reliance and diversification, India is expanding its engagements and recalibrating ties. However, India is redefining relationships on its own terms. PM Modi has unequivocally conveyed India’s commitment to a “multipolar world and multipolar Asia” in talks with Xi. Stealing the light at the SCO with his infectious camaraderie, PM Modi certainly earned unusual approval from the Chinese.

Good optics make for better signalling. In geopolitics, appearances are important. Body language, symbolic gestures and display of bonhomie all have a role to play. The grand display of camaraderie at Tianjin, with three leaders of the top four countries chatting and clasping hands, went beyond symbolism. The coming together of PM Modi, President Putin and President Xi sparked the notion of a potential alternate world order.

India-Russia-China cordiality has grabbed headlines with US hawk Navarro accusing India of “getting in bed with two biggest authoritarian dictators in the World: Putin and Xi Jinping”. This kind of criticism reflects a poor understanding of India’s foreign policy dynamic. Unlike the modern-day Nation-States, India is a civilisational power which builds solid relationships for the long term and from the perspective of a worldview. Impetuosity is foreign to it, and it resists making decisions in a huff. National interests have always been paramount.

India has resolutely safeguarded its interests and continues to do so. In a major diplomatic win, the SCO condemned the Pahalgam attack and backed India’s stand to bring the perpetrators to justice. Earlier, at the SCO Defence Ministers Meeting, India refused to sign a joint declaration for diluting Indian stance on terrorism and for not mentioning cross-border terrorism.

Enunciating India’s vision for SCO as Security, Connectivity and Opportunity, PM Modi stated, “We believe that every effort towards connectivity must uphold the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity. Connectivity, that by-passes sovereignty, ultimately loses both trust and meaning”, and once again refused to endorse China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).  Evidently, India refuses to make any concessions to China in pursuit of stable relations with China. This underscores the strength of India’s fiercely independent foreign policy, firmly anchored in safeguarding its core interests.

Fundamental differences exist between India and China. Beijing has to demonstrate its commitment through specific actions; grand verbosity can no longer work. The burden of sustaining this new reset is on China now. India has clear redlines and its foreign policy is rooted in its commitment to democratic values, the rule of law, and pluralism. This was clearly reflected in PM Modi’s absence at China’s military parade after the SCO Summit. Beijing sought to use the parade to mobilise national sentiment to position itself as Asia’s pre-eminent power. Indian participation would have positively legitimised China’s pursuit of domination.

The tariff war against India is an epic blunder of Trump’s foreign policy. This miscalculation allowed India and China to explore a partnership rising above differences. India has always rejected imperial tendencies and rigid groupings. Asserting independence, India is diversifying its relationships. The rubric of geopolitics is changing; the old order of alliances and kowtowing is passe. Multi-alignment and geopolitical hedging have come to dominate international relations.

India rejects the unipolarity of the US and the unilateralism of China. Amid Trump’s hardball approach, defining a clear sense of its own interests, India is affirmatively asserting its strategic multi-alignment.

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A Quantum Leap in India-Japan Strategic Engagement

PM Modi’s two-day visit to Japan to attend the 15^th Annual India-Japan summit meeting comes amid crucial geopolitical flux. At a time when President Trump seeks to upend the world order, nations are resetting their ties to cope with the looming uncertainties. Blighted by unpredictability, nations are reexploring bilateral partnerships and seeking to anchor ties based on mutual trust and respect.

Trump’s threatening tariffs and motivated secondary sanctions have propelled nations to reshape their partnership with a transformative agenda. Ending up with a short end of the stick, Japan, the US ally since World War II, responded to India's alacrity to strengthen the bilateral ties amid looming ‘Trumpian Disorder’. With close to eight decades of establishing diplomatic ties, India and Japan have a longstanding friendship and goodwill.

Amid the ever-changing dynamics of geopolitical power games, trusted partnerships have always been pillars of stability. Positively reorienting the convergence of interests and strategic outlook, India and Japan have laid down a 10-year strategic roadmap to weather the geopolitical headwinds.

Japan has been a part of India’s journey in Viksit and Atmanirbhar Bharat. Rooted in their commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific (FOIP), upholding the rules-based order, and seeking to elevate the old friendship, leaders have taken a quantum leap in terms of enhancing cooperation. In these tumultuous times when lack of mutual respect and tolerance to sensitivities are destabilising ties, known for its discreet diplomacy of taking up differences privately, harmonising mature relationships, India and Japan have unveiled a joint statement -“Partnerships For security and prosperity of our next generation”.

Trump’s tariff fury and volatile foreign policy have raised concerns about America’s credibility in upholding the world order and its commitments to nations. Taking its brinkmanship to the next level, the US has tried to corner India. However, turning the adversity into an opportunity, PM Modi, in his address to the India-Japan Economic Forum at Tokyo, highlighted India’s transformation, asserting, “capital in India doesn’t just grow, it multiplies”, underscoring its stable economic rating.

Reinforcing Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC)’s testament to India as the most ‘promising’ investment destination, PM Modi extended an invitation to Japanese businesses to India. Be it official Development Assistance (ODA), metros, manufacturing, AI, high-speed rail, urban renewal, smart cities project, India-Japan partnership reflects mutual trust. Japanese investment, though modest ($34 billion), has great strategic weight. It is aligned with India’s long-term priorities like Make in India, Digital India, Startup India, renewable energy, and advanced manufacturing. In the last two years, the Japanese private sector has announced 150 MoUs worth $13 billion with India in automotive, energy, aerospace, semiconductors and human resources.

Experiencing decades of prolonged economic stagnation emanating from the post-Plaza Accord, leading to a period of “Lost Decades”, Japan has never recovered from the asset bubble collapse. Further, economic mismanagement, demographic decline and an ageing population have exacerbated its economic woes.

The recent trade deal with the Trump administration of lower tariff slabs in exchange for an investment pledge has further left Tokyo high and dry, with Trump claiming the package as “our money to invest, as we like”. Further, surrounded by nuclear powers, in the highly contested Indo-Pacific theatre, Trump’s wavering security pledges have spurred debate among the US allies about American willingness to come to their aid in a conflict. Ahead of PM Modi’s visit Japanese trade negotiator scrapped a US trip, delaying the finalisation of $500 billion investment plan.

Once bitten, twice shy, Tokyo is also reassessing its options on economic engagement and security. PM Modi’s assurances couldn’t have been more timely. Positioning India as a ‘stabilising power’, PM Modi said, “The world is not just watching India, it is counting on India. Japan is a tech powerhouse and India is a talent powerhouse. We both agree that as two major economies and vibrant democracies, our partnership is very important not only for our two countries, but also for global peace and stability”.

Indeed, the timing of PM Modi’s visit to Japan ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) has a strategic imperative. Amid the perception that Trump’s tariffs have pushed India into China’s lap, the annual summit meeting with Japan is a strong signal and assurance of New Delhi’s relevance in the shifting regional balance. It is a message that the India-Japan partnership will continue to remain as a counterweight to the muscular expansionism of China.

India and Japan elevated their ties to a “Special Strategic and global partnership” in 2014, and ever since, PM Modi has travelled to Japan for the annual summits eight times. With over 70 dialogue mechanisms and working groups, countries have intensely engaged with a myriad of ministries, departments, and agencies. Building on these accomplishments and leveraging respective strengths and complementarities, both sides have identified three core areas- bolstering defence and security, reinforcing economic partnership and deepening people-to-people ties.

With unsettled territorial issues with China, South Korea and Russia, Japan is facing mounting geopolitical challenges. Given its security vulnerabilities, Japan is seeking to deepen a strategic defence and security partnership with India. As a first step, to promote interoperability and synergy between defence forces and defence capabilities. Along with exploring cooperation mechanisms for defence co-production, co-development countries are planning to promote dialogue between Joint Staffs, maritime cooperation, cooperation in counterterrorism, peacekeeping operations, cyber defence and collaboration between special operations units.

 

Adopting a joint vision for the next decade, countries decided on ‘whole of nation lines’ to steer partnership through eight pillars. These are next-generation economic partnership, economic security partnership, mobility, ecological legacies, technology and innovative partnerships, next-generation health, people-to-people partnership and state-prefecture partnerships.

For credible and effective implementation of the initiatives, countries have evolved an action plan for India-Japan Human Resource Exchange and Cooperation and a Joint Declaration on security cooperation. Grappling with a severe labour shortage due to declining populations, leveraging complementarities, countries rolled out an Action Plan for talent mobility and a two-way exchange of 5,00,000 personnel, including 50,000 skilled workers over a five-year time frame under 16 categories.

Being two strong democracies in the Indo-Pacific region with converging security threats, India and Japan are natural partners. The defining speech of PM Shinzo Abe, “Confluences of Two Seas”, is credited as the guiding vision for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP).

Despite an enduring friendship, the bilateral trade is a marginal $23 billion tilted in favour of Japan. To enhance, diversify economic cooperation and make it more forward-looking, countries are reviewing the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) signed in 2011. Leaders have set a private investment target of JPY 10 trillion ($68 billion) spread over a decade in key sectors like semiconductors, critical minerals, defence and technology.

Recognising shared interests in safeguarding critical economic interests and factoring geopolitical realities and security configurations, countries have widely expanded the arena of cooperation.

To secure and strengthen supply chains in critical goods and sectors, countries decided to accelerate cooperation in critical and emerging technologies, telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, critical minerals, semiconductors and clean energy. This heightened priority complements the existing collective partnership for resilience on semiconductors and critical minerals, through the Quad’s Supply Chain Contingency Network and Minerals Security Partnership.

Additionally, countries are working together through the Biopharmaceutical Alliance for building reliable supply chains and the India-led Global Biofuels Alliance to realise their climate change commitments.

Elevating symbolic goodwill to practical partnership, countries have signed a raft of agreements. The enormity of the aspirations and the ambitious vision set by the leaders is truly overwhelming. The Indian and Japanese Coast Guard signed a Memorandum of Cooperation. Countries have also signed MoC in Mineral Resources, Joint Crediting Mechanism and Cultural Exchange.

Countries inked a Joint Declaration of Intent on Clean Hydrogen and Ammonia (towards net zero economy) and several MoUs - India-Japan Digital Partnership 2.0, environmental cooperation, decentralised domestic waste management, diplomats' training, next generation mobility partnership, Science & Technology (first of its kind) and extended an MoU on India Beamline at the Photon Factory, KEK for six years.

Strengthening the Lunar Polar Expedition (LUPEX), countries sealed an Implementing Arrangement between ISRO and JAXA- Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, for a landmark collaboration on Chandrayaan 5. Both sides launched the India-Japan AI initiative, and PM Modi extended an invitation to the Japanese counterpart for the Open AI Summit held in India.

At the Annual Summit, countries launched a Track 1.5 dialogue of think-tanks to promote wider appreciation of security challenges and announced an annual dialogue of National Security Advisers (NSAs). India opened a consulate in Fukuoka with plans to establish business forums in the regions of Kansai and Kyushu to strengthen business, people-to-people and cultural linkages.

India permitted Japan, the first foreign development partner, to build infrastructure projects in India’s sensitive North East region. Trust and reliability are the bedrock of the India-Japan relationship. Synchronising India’s vision of Mutual and Holistic Advancement for Security and Growth Across Regions (MAHASAGAR) with Japan’s Economic Region Initiative of Indian Ocean and Africa, countries plan to invigorate business collaborations in South Asia and Africa. This arrangement can serve as a challenger to China’s BRI and counterbalance Beijing’s posturing as the leader of the ‘Global South’.

Alongside, to foster political trust, the State-Prefecture relationships are established between UP and Yamanashi, AP and Toyama, TN and Ehime, Gujarat and Shizuoka, with high-level exchanges between states and prefectures, including three visits in each direction, being explored. Countries also launched the India-Japan SME Forum and issued the Economic Security Factsheet outlining ongoing collaborations in strategic sectors.

The bilateral talks, which lasted for over two hours, apart from reviewing the bilateral cooperation, focused on regional and global issues. Countries expressed concerns over the situation in the East China Sea and South China Sea. They opposed unilateral action that endangers the freedom of navigation and overflight, a change in the status quo, and called for dispute resolution in accordance with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). They condemned the Pahalgam attacks and took note of the UNSC Monitoring Report's mention of the Resistance Front (TRF), condemned nuclear aspirations of North Korea and destabilising missile testing, the worsening situation in Myanmar and urged a return to democracy. They welcomed the Israel-Iran ceasefire, expressed support for a just and lasting peace in Ukraine, and supported each other’s candidature for a seat on the UNSC. 

PM Modi concluded his trip with a visit to Tokyo Electron Factory, the leading semiconductor equipment manufacturer in Miyagi prefecture, by train, accompanied by PM Shigeru Ishiba. Later, PM Modi addressed a group of governors from prefectures.

Amidst a rapidly evolving and volatile geopolitical landscape, India and Japan are consolidating the old partnership, imparting a strategic dynamism. Infusing new vigour into the longstanding friendship, countries are gearing up to navigate global challenges together. Demonstrating a new resolve and shared commitment, countries are actively seeking new avenues to harness their complementary strengths. With a focus on unlocking the untapped potential, leaders are ushering the partnership into a new phase for tangible benefits and mutually beneficial outcomes.

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India-Philippines Strategic Partnership: A Subtle Strategic Signal to China

Post-Galwan conflict, there has been a subtle but noticeable shift in India’s approach towards disputes in the SCS. In a marked departure from its balanced approach for the risk of irking China, for the first time at the 15^th EAS Summit, EAM Jaishankar remarked, “actions and incidents in the South China Sea erode trust and the ongoing negotiations on the proposed code of conduct should not be prejudicial to legitimate interests of third parties and should be fully consistent with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)”.

Alongside playing a proactive role, since 2020, India has increased maritime deployments in the SCS to strengthen military-diplomatic ties and enhance interoperability and cooperation with ASEAN nations. At the same time, India consciously stayed away from joint patrols or Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) with the US Navy. India’s approach to the South China Sea has been guided by the Act East Policy and the Indo-Pacific vision to secure a safe regional architecture where nations can resolve disputes peacefully.

With high regard for ASEAN centrality, India has always believed that South East Asia can act as a ‘fulcrum’ connecting India and the Pacific Ocean. As expert Abhijit Singh of ORF observed, “A tendency to view the region through a prism of geopolitics and ‘balance of power' makes Indian decision makers wary of taking a stand on China’s aggressive posturing. Yet the costs of saying and doing nothing are rising for India as China’s firming grip over disputed territories in the South China Sea portends greater power projection in the Eastern Indian Ocean.” Instructively, the Chinese standoff along the LAC and increased naval presence in the IOR and Beijing’s military escalation in the West Philippines Sea brought India and the Philippines together.

Beijing’s aggressive expansionism in the SCS has made it the stormiest region in the Indo-Pacific theatre. With shared maritime concerns and Chinese aggression as the cornerstone of bilateral convergence, on PM Modi’s first state visit to the Philippines in 2017, the countries signed an MoU on defence cooperation and logistics. In 2019, countries signed an MoU on the sharing of white shipping information, and the Indian Navy joined the naval exercises with the US, Japan and Philippines for the first time in the SCS.

As Prof. Harsh Pant alludes, “the strengthening of maritime security ties between the two countries represents the highly interdependent security dynamics of the Indian Ocean and the greater South China Sea”. Close coordination between India and the Philippines is rooted in China’s “two-oceans strategy”, which aims to project greater power over Indo-Pacific. Beijing’s deepening military and economic engagements in IOR, its disruptive illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) in the Western Ocean Region, along with provocations close to the Western Philippines Sea, are pertinent offshoots of the same doctrine.

Apprised of Chinese adventurism and its threat to the regional security architecture, India and the Filipino Coast Guard signed an MoU on defence coordination in 2023 to intensify defence cooperation. The countries elevated the Joint Defence Cooperation Committee (JDCC) meeting to the Defence Secretary level in September 2024.

The Philippines is a country of about 7,600 islands. To effectively address China’s expansionism, Manila has unveiled the defence strategy- Comprehensive Archipelagic Defence Concept (CADC), which was operationalised in March 2024. In November, President Marcos signed the Maritime Zones Law and Archipelagic Sea Lanes Law to strengthen the government’s resolve to uphold rules-based order. A vital component of CADC is to strengthen maritime security ties with like-minded countries. Besides firming up ties with traditional partners like the US, Japan, Australia, the UK and Canada to maximise maritime security partnership with India, Manila held the first track 1 bilateral maritime dialogue in December 2024.

Catalysing the defence cooperation, which has become the most important pillar of the bilateral partnership, Filipino President Ferdinand R Marcos Jr arrived in New Delhi on August 4^th, for a five-day state visit at the invitation of PM Modi. Coinciding with his visit, navies of both countries held their first joint drill off the Philippines' Coast. Three Indian Navy vessels- INS Delhi, INS Shakti, and INS Kiltan, joined by Philippine frigates BRP Miguel Malvar and BRP Jose Rizal, conducted a two-day joint passage in the South China Sea, underscoring the growing bilateral maritime security cooperation.

The visit, the first ever by President Marcos Jr, marks 75 years of the establishment of diplomatic relations. Besides, the contemporary convergence of shared concerns, the bilateral relationship is rooted in mutual trust, respect, civilisational contacts, deep cultural bonds and shared democratic values anchored in the 1952 Treaty of Friendship. Accompanied by a delegation comprising cabinet ministers and businessmen, both leaders held delegation-level and restricted talks to review bilateral ties. Elevating the ties to a “Strategic Partnership”, leaders adopted a Plan of Action (2025-2029) to impart greater dynamism to the partnership. India is now the fifth strategic partner of the Philippines.

Hailing the partnership, PM Modi remarked, “India and the Philippines are friends by choice and partners by destiny. From the Indian Ocean to the Pacific, we are united by shared values. Ours is not just a friendship of the past, it is a promise to the future”. The bilateral ties received a massive boost with the delivery of the initial batch of BrahMos batteries to the Philippines in April 2024, positioning India as a credible defence partner. This has laid the foundation for the institutionalisation of bilateral defence mechanisms.

Keen on modernising the Philippines Armed Forces, President Marcos confirmed interest in procuring additional BrahMos missiles and other military equipment from India, a reflection of a growing regard for India's defence prowess post Operation Sindoor.

Furthering the cooperation under the MAHASAGAR (Mutual and Holistic Advancement for Security and Growth Across Regions) vision, countries have decided to collaborate and cooperate in co-development, co-production of defence products to achieve self-reliance, establish a defence R&D and supply chain ecosystem. To this end, countries signed Terms of Reference to foster tri-services staff talks and for enhanced maritime cooperation between the Indian Coast Guard and the Philippine Coast Guard. Leaders have explored opportunities for cooperation in developing submarine infrastructure, ship design and naval modernisation.

Condemning the Pahalgam attack, the Philippines expressed interest in jointly working on counterterrorism, human trafficking, money laundering, and cyberthreats. Sides have signed a treaty on mutual legal assistance and a treaty on transfer of sentenced persons between the two countries.

Injecting a strategic dimension to the Plan of Action, countries sought to develop cooperation in political, defence, maritime security, trade and investment, science and technology, connectivity, people-to-people movement, and cultural exchanges. Indian investments in the Philippines, both direct and through third countries, stand at $5 billion. To unlock economic opportunities and expand investment and bilateral trade of $3.3 billion, leaders adopted the ToR for negotiations on the Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA).

The Philippines is currently serving as India’s Country Coordinator in ASEAN (2024-27) and is going to assume the Chairmanship of ASEAN next year. This coincides with India’s BRICS Chairmanship, creating multilateral cooperation opportunities. Extending India’s full support, PM Modi called for expediting the ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement (AITIGA). Endorsing India’s status as top exporter of pharmaceuticals to the Philippines, countries agreed to enhance collaboration in healthcare, pharmaceuticals, ayurveda and traditional medicine.

Being a huge importer of oil, the Philippines intends to collaborate with India in biofuels, renewables, green hydrogen and oil exploration. Manila has also invited Indian investments in developing upstream oil and gas assets and infrastructure development- Roads, Rail and Air. In response to visa-free privileges for Indian tourists by the Philippines, India extended a gratis e-tourist visa for Filipino nationals for a year.

Philippines Unique Identifier System-PhilSys uses the MOSIP platform incubated at IIIT Bengaluru. Firmed up this collaboration, countries signed an MoU on cooperation in digital technologies. Alongside, countries signed the Programme of Cooperation for 2025-28 on tourism and a Statement of Intent on cooperation on peaceful uses of outer space. India invited the Philippines to join the India Information Fusion Centre for Indian Ocean Region (IFC-IOR) and extended support to the Philippines in setting up Sovereign Data Cloud Infrastructure.

Enhancing cooperation between the ASEAN Outlook for Indo-Pacific and the Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative for Peace (IPOI), countries reaffirmed their commitment towards upholding peace, stability and prosperity in the region. India, which considers SCS as part of the global commons, supports freedom of navigation, overflight in the region and expressed concern over coercive and aggressive actions in the region. New Delhi conveyed that the 2016 Arbitral Award, which is in tune with the obligations under the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), should be the basis for peacefully resolving disputes.  

President Marcos thanked India for permitting non-basmati rice exports to the Philippines when the country struggled with poor crop output and acknowledged India’s role as the first responder in any Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) operation. India offered to share the Gati Shakti Platform, and PM Modi talked about the Jan Aushadi system for low-cost distribution of generic medicines. PM Modi fondly recalled agritechnology cooperation between the two countries and the development of the hypoglycemic rice variety at the IRRI South Asia Regional Centre (ISARC), Varanasi, with the International Rice Research Institute in the Philippines.

Though the Philippines has a critical security alliance agreement with the US, considering Washington’s uncertain policies, Manila is preparing to act independently and diversifying its engagements for long-term security. Prioritising self-reliance, Marcos Jr, who has firmly resisted China’s military posturing, is keen on expanding and enhancing ties with India.

India’s warm embrace of the Philippines, an unmissable strategic message to Beijing, is a shot in the arm for India’s Act East Policy and Indo-Pacific vision for regional security amid shifting alliances and unpredictable global politics.

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Trump Tariffs Reignite Concerns of American Dependability

Geopolitics and global economics are deeply intertwined. A perceived assault on one segment is bound to have a ripple effect on the other. Trump announced 25% tariffs plus a penalty on India a day before the putative deadline.  Some analysts saw this coming.

Sanctions and threats have been an integral part of Trump’s coercive diplomacy. In his first tenure, President Trump signed the CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) into law in 2017 and threatened India with dire consequences if India goes ahead with the purchase of Russia’s S-400 Triumf air defence system. Despite the sanctions threat, India went ahead with the Inter-Governmental Agreement (IGA) for the procurement of S-400, signed in 2016. India managed to obtain a limited waiver in 2018.

In 2018, after unilaterally pulling out of the JCPOA, Trump reimposed sanctions on Iran and warned countries against having business ties with Tehran. Under mounting pressure, India halted oil imports from Iran in May 2019 - its second-largest crude supplier. Just two months earlier, India was forced to stop its oil supplies from Venezuela due to similar US sanctions, its third-largest oil supplier.

India thus grappled with Trump’s tertiary sanctions alongside punitive tariffs on steel, aluminium and washing machines. In a further blow, Trump 1.0 even revoked the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) for India in June 2019, with reinstatement still pending. Notably, an economic study of Trump’s first term showed that tariffs hurt the imposing country more than its targets, with prices of intermediate products rising by 10% to 30%¹.

Back in his second term, Trump defiantly pursued tariffs as a panacea for the US’s mounting debt with a familiar refrain that “they (countries) are ripping us off”.  His Liberation Day tariff announcement shocked global markets into disarray. Unclear of the final rates while importers absorbed the initial shocks, which soon rippled through economic indicators.

A study by Yale Budget Lab noted a 1.8% increase in US consumer prices, with inflation peaking in the month of June. The concomitant burden is pegged to an average equivalent of $2400 per US household². Besides financial strain, what has triggered uncertainty is the phenomenon dubbed by critics as TACO -Trump Always Chickens Out. Characterised by deadline extensions and unpredictable tariff rollbacks, the erratic trade policy- strategically spun as ‘negotiation’- has bolstered the world's view of tariffs as tools of Trump’s coercive diplomacy.

Hit by an average of 15% US tariffs, the steepest since the 1930s, the global economy is expected to shrink by 3% as per the International Trade Centre (ITC). While the geostrategic relationship remained relatively insulated from the economic warfare in Trump 1.0, arbitrary trade levies in Trump 2.0, laced with hostility, might have a long-lasting effect on America’s strategic relationship with countries.

In a frenzied bid to dodge impending US tariffs before the Aug 1 deadline, countries like Indonesia, Japan, South Korea and the EU offered broader access for US products to their markets along with sizeable investments. Doing away with its threshold limits on rice imports, a notable red line in trade, Japan went out of its way to placate Trump, promising $550 billion investment. The EU offered to invest $600 billion in the US and purchase $750 billion worth of energy products. Similarly, South Korea agreed to invest $300 billion in the US for 15% reciprocal tariffs. Buoyed by the favourable deals, Trump announced a 25% tariff plus a penalty on India.

PM Modi was among the first leaders hosted by Trump 2.0 when both leaders ambitiously set a bilateral trade target of $500 billion by 2030 and promptly initiated trade negotiations. Playing his hand at different strategic fronts, Trump positioned himself as a peacemaker in the India-Pakistan conflict during Operation Sindoor. This intervention ran contrary to India’s hardline policy stance of ‘no third-party involvement in bilateral matters’. Trump’s untenable claims stirred bitter political dissensions in India, forcing the ruling dispensation to issue numerous clarifications on a cross-border operation that inflicted a mortal blow on Pakistan’s military and strategic apparatus.

Trump’s volte face on Pakistan is quite a story. In 2018, Trump remarked, “The United States has foolishly given Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid over the last 15 years, and they have given us nothing but lies & deceit, thinking of our leaders as fools. They give safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan, with little help. No more!”. Fast forward, and Trump’s hosting lunch for Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir has caught India by surprise. Recalibrating Pakistan-US ties, Munir reportedly offered the US access to mineral wealth in Balochistan. Doubling down on charm offensive, Pakistan has invested in the Trump family’s cryptocurrency firm, World Liberty Financial, towards the end of April. Indeed, pandering to Trump’s ego, Pakistan has also nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize.

Trump’s claim to end hostilities has worked to Munir’s advantage, forcing the Pakistan government to elevate him to the Field Marshal position despite suffering a humiliating blow in Operation Sindoor. While India-US trade negotiations continued at a halting pace, India’s disapproval of Trump’s mediation had its impact, with the US President telling Apple to halt iPhone manufacturing in India. In July, he warned nations backing BRICS with a 10% extra tariff for their attempts to weaken the dollar.

Negotiating the Ukraine peace talks- a cornerstone of his poll campaign that remains unfulfilled is taking the best of him. Frustrated by stalled negotiations with Russia, wielding economic firepower, Trump warned of a staggering 100% tariffs on countries importing Russian oil, targeting China, India and Brazil.

Trump’s barrage of Truth Social posts leaves no ambiguity about his intention to unleash a full-scale ‘economic warfare’. His tirades can be zeroed into three provocative themes- first, a scathing attack on what he calls, “most strenuous and obnoxious non-monetary trade barriers”; second a brewing discomfort over India’s defence and energy purchases from Russia- “India has brought cast majority of equipment from Russia and are Russia’s largest buyer of energy along with China” and a veiled economic threat suggesting “they (India and Russia) can take down their economies together”.

Finally, in a move to upstage Modi and put the two South Asian neighbours on an equal footing, he announced a new US-Pakistan partnership: “We have just concluded a Deal with the country of Pakistan whereby Pakistan and the United States will work together on developing their massive Reserves. We are in the process of choosing an oil company that will lead this partnership. Who knows, maybe they’ll be selling Oil to India”.

Obviously, the “non-monetary trade barriers” are an apparent reference to India’s firm stance on protecting its agriculture sector, denying the entry of GM crops. Dairy has been another flash point as the classification of US dairy falls under “non-vegetarian milk”. The US termed this labelling as ‘unjustified non-trade barrier’. However, milk has religious, spiritual and cultural significance, and hence permitting US dairy products is unacceptable for India. US agricultural products can potentially disrupt India’s MSME sector involved in exports. Close to 50% of India's population depends on agriculture for their livelihood, and India has vowed to protect the interests of farmers.

Trump's repeated claims of leveraging trade deals to mediate India-Pakistan tensions revealed a disturbing pattern of coercive diplomacy and weaponisation of tariffs. In doing so, Trump has overstepped on India’s red lines – India brooks no external interference in its domestic affairs. By pitching Pakistan against India and attempting to hyphenate both, Trump earned India’s ire. Trump’s pivot to Pakistan in South Asia will have a telling impact on the US Indo-Pacific framework. Trump’s public rebuke of India’s oil imports and defence purchases from Russia has been an open assault on its strategic autonomy.

By attempting to trample on the twin non-negotiables- securing national interests and strategic autonomy- Trump has attempted to provoke India. His derogatory description of India as a “dead economy” and “we have done very little business with India” reeked of arrogance and a high-handed approach to pressurise India.

Trump’s announcement comes a day ahead of the landmark India-US collaboration on the NISAR Mission. Lest we forget, India’s rapid strides in space research are a poignant reminder of the US roadblocks which seriously derailed the satellite programme. Refusing to transfer technology, the US objected to India’s deal with Russia for the transfer of cryogenic engines and tech transfer, citing Missile Technology Control Transfer (MTCR) violations and imposed sanctions.

Simultaneously, the US crippled India’s indigenous efforts by implicating the project head, Nambi Narayan, in a false espionage case. India and the US relationship is also etched by a period of Comprehensive sanctions under the Glenn Amendment imposed by the US President post-1998, India’s Pokhran nuclear testing. However, the relationship improved after 9/11 when Washington realised the strategic convergence with India in the national security domain.

China’s emerging economic superpower rise heralded a new dawn in India-US relations. In the past 25 years, countries have diligently nurtured the partnership by expanding the arenas of cooperation. The US sees great relevance in India as a counterbalance amid China’s assertive and aggressive rise and as an indispensable partner in the Indo-Pacific region. Unfortunately, Trump’s blunt political message devoid of political nuance demonstrated a raw geopolitical muscle akin to a bully, reigniting fears of the reliability of the US partnership.

The reckless abandon and projection of power, smacking of transactionalism, will force India to not only diversify its trade and supply chains but also review its reliance on the US. Also, Trump’s cosying up to China is not lost on India. While India was forced to stop energy imports from Iran and Venezuela, China continues to buy 90% of Iranian oil. Beijing is also the largest buyer of oil from Venezuela and imports Russian crude. In June, taking to Truth Social, Trump stated, “China can now continue to purchase oil from Iran”. Trump’s posturing of China as a dove for rare earths exposes inherent contradictions in the US-China policy.

Trump’s unpredictability, coupled with bluster and blackmail, will raise more questions about America’s credibility as a mature power. On the other hand, India's resistance to US pressure will make countries begrudgingly respect Indian leadership. Unlike modern nation-states, a resilient civilisational state like India has renewed ‘Swadeshi’ push, urging citizens to embrace indigenous goods.

U.S. sanctions are expected to significantly affect India's exports of gems and jewellery, seafood, textiles, and auto components. However, India can cushion the blow through a strategic mix of domestic reforms and proactive global engagement—much like it did in the aftermath of the more severe post-Pokhran sanctions, which ultimately spurred the country’s pursuit toward self-reliance.

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India’s Strategic Trade Diversification Gains Fresh Momentum with CETA

Amid the inordinate delays in trade negotiations with the US and the Damocles Sword of Trump tariffs, India has sealed an FTA with the UK. PM Modi, on his fourth visit to the UK, was hosted by his UK counterpart Kier Starmer at his official Country residence, Chequers, for the FTA signing ceremony on July 24, 2025. Leaders formally announced the successful conclusion of the India-UK FTA on May 6^th after three years of negotiations.

The FTA was indeed the cornerstone of the collaborative 2030 India-UK Roadmap laid down by PM Modi and former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson. As a part of the Enhanced Trade Partnership, countries began the first round of FTA negotiations, virtually in January 2022. The next 15 rounds of talks were held alternatively in Delhi and London.

Beset by contentious issues like mobility visas, carbon tax exemptions and duty cuts on alcohol and electric vehicles and elections in both countries, the talks dragged for over three years. Notwithstanding several leadership changes, post-Brexit, the UK, keen on reviving its stagnant economy, has keenly pursued the talks. With Conservatives at the helm, mobility remained the major roadblock. Expressing willingness for early conclusion of FTA, Labour leader, PM Starmer relaunched the talks in January 2025. Reaching consensus over the thorniest issues, countries finally reached consensus in May.

Traditionally labelled as a laggard in terms of economic diplomacy, New Delhi’s readiness towards FTAs has been rather tepid. Moreso, the ill-conceived and poorly negotiated FTAs clinched pre-2014 turned out to be lopsided. Except for SAPTA (SAARC Preferential Trading Arrangement), the trade imbalances with South Korea, Japan and ASEAN have been steadily increasing. Wary of burgeoning trade deficits, India walked away from China-dominated RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) in 2019.  

Driven by geopolitical conditions, to spur economic growth and access new markets, India intensified economic partnership with like-minded countries. Post-2022, India sealed new FTAs with Mauritius, Australia and the UAE.  In March 2024, India entered into a Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement (TEPA) with EFTA (European Free Trade Association), a group of four non-EU countries- Iceland, Liechtenstein, Switzerland and Norway. Coming into force from October, the agreement will entail $100 billion in investment in the next 15 years, creating 10 lakh jobs in India.

To ensure equitable and balanced trade, India is seeking to review FTAs with South Korea, Japan and ASEAN. Alongside, to diversify trade and boost economic growth, India has strategically revived FTA negotiations with developed countries to boost investor confidence and remove uncertainty in trade policies.

India’s FTA with the UK, the CETA, Comprehensive Economic Trade Agreement, is a huge milestone in that direction. CETA will provide duty-free access for 99% of Indian exports and covers the entire trade basket, creating numerous opportunities for Indian textiles, marine products, leather, footwear, gems & jewellery, toys and small businesses. Access to new markets can accelerate exports and generate millions of jobs in India.

The service sector, the major growth engine of the Indian economy, would also accrue wide-ranging benefits under Contractual Service Suppliers (CSS) of CETA for IT and IT-enabled services and other 36 sectors, providing vast avenues for growth. Simplified visa procedures and liberalised entry categories are expected to increase the mobility of skilled talent in 16 Independent Professional (IPs) categories, such as Research and Development, Chef, artists, yoga instructors, to the UK.

CETA is expected to double the bilateral trade of $56 billion by 2030. India is the 11^th largest trade partner of the UK. Along with CETA, India has also sealed the Double Contribution Convention, exempting Indian workers in the UK and their employers from social security contributions for three years. This would boost earnings and remittances. The UK is currently the largest source of remittances for India after the US and UAE. 

A 50% duty reduction on 97% of UK exports, mainly alcohol products, medical devices and advanced machinery can increase its accessibility to the large Indian markets. Reeling under economic stagnation post-Brexit, CETA with India will accelerate industrial growth and revive the sixth-largest economy.

With 27 Chapters covering trade and services, labour mobility, including social and developmental issues, the India-UK FTA can serve as the benchmark for India’s future trade negotiations. As per GTRI, India is expected to forego revenue $ 542 million in the first year due to tariff reductions on a wide range of UK imports. Notwithstanding this loss of customs revenue, India went ahead with the FTA, reflecting a massive shift in the trade policy, which is more rational, intended to make Indian industries competitive in the long run. Further, the phased tariff reductions on automobiles should serve as a huge message to President Trump, who has unceremoniously picked on India for the tariffs on high-end luxury bikes.

The FTA, while preserving Indian autonomy, has balanced its commitment to the global norms as set the stage for expediting the long-pending FTA with the EU. Another important key feature of this FTA is a dedicated chapter for gender, which explicitly endorses the critical role of women in economic development. Besides strengthening investment and trade linkages, CETA marks the convergence of the UK’s quest for trade diversification and boosts India’s goal of self-reliance through ‘Make in India, for the World’. Securing its trade interests, India has carefully signed the FTA, expected to come into force by next year after the ratification by the respective Parliaments.

The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CABM) will come into force in the UK in 2027, and it is not included in the FTA. Alleviating the concerns of the Indian businesses, India has asserted its right to introduce counterbalancing measures to mitigate its impact. However, critical gaps still exist, especially in mobility. Despite Indian efforts, the UK administration is still recalcitrant on its immigration outlook. Similarly, India has restricted access for the UK’s financial and legal services. While the stringent phytosanitary measures of the UK can be an onerous hurdle for Indian farmers.

By and large, India’s landmark FTA with the UK will now serve as a framework for trade agreements with the EU and the US. Trade agreements can help build indigenous manufacturing capabilities to match with the global partners and eventually facilitate integration with the global economy.

CETA has laid the ground for deepening economic partnership with the UK, which is the sixth-largest investor in India with cumulative investments worth $36 billion. India's investments in the UK, valued at $20 billion, generate one lakh jobs. Modi and Starmer also unveiled the India-UK 2035 Vision plan to deepen and diversify bilateral cooperation.

The ambitious Roadmap seeks to nurture education and skills partnership, intellectual partnership, health and life sciences partnership, develop cutting-edge technology and research through the year-old UK-India Technology Security Initiative (TSI) and foster climate partnership to work towards net zero goals.

Leaders have adopted the 10-year defence-industrial roadmap, opening enormous opportunities for collaboration between defence industries. Countries have decided to collaborate on advanced connectivity, cyber resilience, semiconductors, quantum biotechnology and harness the UK-India Research and Innovation Corridor focused on future telecoms, AI and critical minerals.

Replete with geopolitical contestations, challenges and growth opportunities, Indo-Pacific is now a pivotal theatre. Committed to a free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific, India can be an indispensable partner for the UK in the region. Steering clear of mistrust, resentment and colonial misgivings, both countries have laid a foundation to build a pragmatic and forward-looking relationship based on shared interests with the trade agreement.

Battling similar threats, leaders condemned terrorism and decided to strengthen bilateral and multilateral cooperation in counter-radicalisation, combat financing of terrorism and take concerted action against terrorist entities and their patrons. As marked disapproval of London mayor Sadiq Khan’s inaction despite repeated requests from Indian authorities of the threat from Khalistanis, PM Modi deliberately avoided London. The security breach during EAM Jaishankar’s London visit is still fresh in Indian memory. The two most important appointments of PM Modi – the signing of FTA and meeting with King Charles III were held away from London.

The UK has become a safe haven for Khalistani terrorism and India’s economic offenders. PM Modi brought these issues to the fore in his press briefing. He remarked, “We are united in our view that there can be no place for double standards in the fight against terrorism. We also agree that forces with extremist ideologies must not be allowed to misuse democratic freedoms. Those who misuse democratic freedoms to undermine democracy itself must be held to account. On the matter of extradition of economic offenders as well, our agencies will continue to work together in close coordination and cooperation”.

At a time when mercurial Trump is raining down tariff threats on India, India deftly sealed a trade agreement with the UK as a strategic message to the US. Trump announced a trade deal with India as early as February and set an ambitious target of $500billion bilateral trade. Six months hence, both countries held five rounds of negotiations, with the sixth round scheduled for August 25^th.

At the time of writing, news just trickled in that Trump has announced 25% tariffs on India plus a penalty. By weaponising trade, Trump has recklessly undermined the India-US Global Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. Instructively, factoring in Trump’s transactionalism, India has fast-tracked trade negotiations with various countries. India-UK FTA is thus very timely and augurs well with India’s attempts to buffet the headwinds of Trump’s whimsical trade policies.   

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India and Argentina: Charting a New Strategic Horizon

PM Modi arrived in Argentina in the third leg of the five-nation trip on July 5^th. This is the first bilateral visit by an Indian Prime Minister to the country in 57 years. PM Modi last visited Argentina in 2018 for the G20 Summit. On his arrival in Buenos Aires, the City Chief conferred PM Modi with the Key to the City of Buenos Aires.

Trump’s erratic trade tariffs and Europe’s carbon tax hurdles have forced nations to realign and diversify their supply chains. PM Modi’s five-nation trip spanning the global south attempts to chart a new course by rediscovering shared values to forge economic partnerships with resource-rich nations.

Irrespective of the leadership at the helm of affairs, business and trade have largely driven the course of the India-Argentina relationship. India is the fourth-largest trade partner of Argentina. India accounts for 90% of Argentina’s Soybean oil exports.

After the Ukrainian war, India has routed its sunflower oil imports from Argentina. Now, vegetable oils account for more than 50% of India-Argentina bilateral trade, which reached $5.2 billion in 2024. The trade peaked at $6.4 billion in 2022 but subsequently dropped due to drought in Argentina. As per reports, the first quarter of 2025 recorded a 53.9% increase in trade. Other major exports of Argentina include finished leather, cereals, pulses, residual chemicals and allied products. Two-wheelers are one of the major exports of India to Argentina, and pharmaceuticals, textiles are next in line. Indian investments in Argentina, valued at over $1.2 billion, include Mphasis, TCS, Comviva, Infosys, Bajaj Motorcycles, TVS, Royal Enfield, Hero Motors, and Godrej. Conversely, Argentinian investments in India stand at $120 million, comprising Globant, OLX and TECHINT.

Argentina has the World’s second-largest shale gas reserves and third-largest shale oil reserves and is part of the Lithium triangle, the other two being Bolivia and Chile. In February 2023, India and Argentina signed agreements to promote cooperation in oil and natural gas.

For the first time ever, India’s KABIL (Khanij Bidesh India Limited) inked a deal with Argentina’s CAMYEN (PSU in Catamarca province) to lease five lithium blocks for mining and exploration in January 2024. In February 2025, KABIL concluded another MoU with Argentina’s Greenco for five Lithium blocks. Other than mineral and energy cooperation, India and Argentina have ramped up defence and nuclear cooperation. India’s Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) and the Argentine Air Force sealed the first commercial agreement for the supply of helicopter spares and engine maintenance. In November 2024, the Heavy Water Board of India signed a four-year agreement for the supply of heavy water with Nuclear Electric Company of Argentina (NASA).

Amid growing India’s energy needs and China’s weaponisation of rare earth minerals, Argentina which also has significant copper reserves could serve as a crucial, reliable partner. After the warm welcome at Casa Rosada Palace, leaders, PM Modi and President Javier Milei reviewed the entire range of bilateral cooperation and decided to diversify and expand the trade basket.

To realise this, India sought Argentina’s support in expanding the India-MERCOSUR Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) signed in 2004 and which came into force in 2009.PTA, which is less comprehensive than FTA, removes tariffs on a limited number of goods. MERCOSUR, the fourth largest trade bloc globally behind the European Union, North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN). MERCOSUR include Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay.

To explore vital opportunities in health care and pharma, PM Modi discussed the possibility of moving India from Annexure II to Annexure I of Argentina's Pharmaceutical Regulatory Framework to expedite the entry of life-saving, affordable Indian pharmaceuticals into the Argentine market.

ISRO launched Argentina’s first space satellite in 2007. In 2023, ISRO and Argentina’s CONAE signed several outer space cooperation framework agreements. Seeking to steadily elevate the defence partnership, Argentina's Defence Minister made the first-ever bilateral visit to India in 2023. This was preceded by two trips by the Argentine Air Force commander and the Argentine Armed Forces chief in 2022 to HAL. After decommissioning the Dassault Mirage fleet in 2015, Argentina is looking a replacement and India’s LCA Tejas jet was in contention. Argentina has also expressed interest in BrahMos.

India and Argentina traditionally support each other in research and logistical support in Antarctica, especially Bharati and Maitri (India’s permanent research stations in Antarctica) and cooperate in the UN peacekeeping missions. Besides strengthening space collaboration, countries are exploring avenues in telemedicine, digital health solutions, capacity building, agriculture and food security, green energy, science and technology and people-to-people linkages. Yoga and Ayurveda are very popular in Argentina.

Though separated by oceans, countries share democratic values and share inclusive, global development vision and hence are natural partners. India welcomed Argentina to join the India-led International Big Cat Alliance (BCA). Argentina backs India’s permanent membership to an expanded UNSC and is counting on India’s support for the resumption of negotiations with the UK on the Malvinas Islands dispute. Argentina, which strongly condemned the Pahalgam attacks, adopts a tough stance on terrorism. Argentina faced two brutal terror attacks- the 1992 Israeli Embassy bombing and the 1994 AMIA Jewish Centre bombing in Buenos Aires.

President Milei showed great interest in India’s Drone Didi initiative in improving agricultural production and usage of drone technology for conservation of fauna, animal husbandry, surveillance of high-tension power transmission and discussed the possibility of using drone to tackle IUU (Illegal, Unregulated and Unreported) fishing especially in Argentina’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Cooperation in digital Infrastructure, building a startup ecosystem and sports also featured in the talks.

PM Modi’s visit to Argentina comes at a time when the country is going through a phase of pathbreaking economic reforms. President Milei, known for his radical approach and kick-named ‘anarcho-capitalist’, is endeavouring to revive the economic outlook of the country through legislation- Large Investment Incentive Regime or RIGI, offering tax breaks for investments. This legislation has increased energy investments, steering the shale oil and gas production. Consequently, Argentina has transitioned from being an energy importer to an exporter.

Impelled by the geopolitical uncertainties, plunging foreign reserves and rising inflation, Argentina directed energy investments towards the lucrative shale patch, Vaca Muerta. Asserting ‘resource nationalism’, President Milei is boldly tapping into the natural resources to resurrect the economic fortunes of Argentina.

India and Argentina elevated relations to a ‘strategic partnership’ in 2019 during President Mauricio Macri's visit. Latin America offers huge potential for economic opportunities. Interestingly, the word ‘strategic’ is largely attributed to India’s relations with influential countries. But in the era of diversification, interconnectedness, to meet its growing needs, India must forge ties with countries far and distant.

Latin America, though geographically distant, shares several commonalities in terms of world vision and similar challenges like food security, climate change, reliable supply, cybersecurity, and terrorism. As the World transitions into Industrialisation 4.0, countries require critical mineral elements to build modern technologies and infrastructure for the large-scale launch of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. India can’t afford to lag in this technological evolution. In tandem with its aspirations to build a scientifically advanced economy, India must ensure a steady supply of critical resources.  India must widen its horizons and build reliable partnerships with countries.

Besides being developing countries, the global south identity also binds India and Argentina. High-profile visits between countries in recent times have laid the ground for building a pragmatic relationship. PM Modi’s historic visit to Argentina signals India’s readiness to deepen the expanding economic partnership.

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India's Ghana Reconnect

On the first leg of his five-nation visit, PM Modi travelled to the West African nation, Ghana, on July 3, 2025. This marks the first visit by an Indian Prime Minister to the country after three decades. In a touching gesture, PM Modi was warmly received by President John Dramani Mahama, re-elected in December 2024. This departure from the protocol demonstrates how Ghana, which had a similar trajectory of freedom struggle, colonial challenges, looks to India as a model to evolve as a vibrant nation.

India was among the first countries to recognise Ghana and establish full-fledged diplomatic relations after it attained independence in 1957. India and Ghana share an anti-colonial sentiment and have been founding members of the Non-Aligned Movement. Both countries are members of the Commonwealth and part of the GoI’s Team-9 Initiative to foster techno-economic development partnerships. Team 9 includes India and eight West African countries. Since the turn of the century, countries have nurtured bilateral ties under the South-South framework.

Boosting the diplomatic engagement through the third India-Africa Forum Summit (IAFS), 2015, India widened the arena of cooperation with African countries, with Ghana as India’s Gateway to West Africa. Earlier, India’s approach to African Countries followed the Banjul Format, a three-tiered approach of cooperation through the African Union (AU), Regional Economic Communities (REC) and traditional bilateral engagements.

Setting aside the Banjul Format, IAFS III adopted an All-Africa approach, inviting all 54 African countries. India also preferred to deliver assistance through Lines of Credit (LoC). With African countries increasingly opting to move away from debt, India must now pursue the FDI-led model driven by the active participation of the private sector. Recognising this shift, India has stopped announcing LoC during bilateral engagements and started encouraging Indian companies to invest in Africa.

The contributions of Indian private investments were hailed by The Harambee Factor, a book on India-African partnership authored by Gurjit Singh, former Indian Ambassador.  Indian companies are making remarkable progress in railway development projects, port development, regional transmission lines, logistical terminals, water and solar projects. India must now pursue Public-Private Partnership (PPP) models in Africa, which is brimming with new opportunities. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) can increase the scope of accessing African regional markets by Indian companies and facilitate economic integration. Ghana hosts the secretariat of AfCFTA.

Reviewing the wide spectrum of the bilateral relationship on PM Modi’s landmark visit, both leaders acknowledged the need for deepening economic engagement, especially in the wake of Ghana’s rebound from the IMF conditionalities and restructuring. Ghana is part of the 15-member Economic Community of West Africa and the Sahel (ECOWAS), which also includes powerhouses like Nigeria and Senegal. ECOWAS is among the eight Regional Economic Communities (REC) of the African Union (AU). As of now, India’s Exim Bank has provided loans to the tune of $1.5 billion to ECOWAS Bank for Investment and Development (EBID) and is well poised to emerge as the pioneering development partner of the region.

To date, India has provided $450 million concessional grants and credits to various projects such as rural electrification, processing plants, agricultural mechanisation, and potable water supply. India-Ghana Kofi Annan ICT Centre and Foreign Service Training Institute, Tema – Mpakadan rail line, inaugurated last year, stand as testimony to India-Ghana friendship.

India is the third-largest trading partner of Ghana, behind China and Switzerland. The bilateral trade worth $3.3 billion is largely in favour of Ghana. Leaders have set a five-year target to double the trade. India imports Gold, Timber and Cashew nuts, while Ghana mainly imports Rice, agricultural products, pharmaceuticals and electrical equipment from India. Indian investments amounting to $ 2 billion in Ghana make it the second-largest investor. The majority of them are driven by over 900 small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

Ghana sought India’s technical support for the President’s “Feed Ghana” programme. India has also offered cooperation in the development of a vaccine hub in Ghana for West Africa. India is already working with Ghana through the Global Vaccine Alliance to set up manufacturing units. India has also proposed to provide affordable health care to citizens of Ghana through Jan Aushadi Kendras.

Considering a significant rise in extremism in West Africa and the Sahel Region, defence cooperation has emerged as the third major area of cooperation. Ghana strongly condemned the Pahalgam attack. Piracy is another major area of concern for Ghana. India has pledged to extend cooperation in training of the armed forces, maritime security, defence supplies and cyber security.  

India has a structured regional cooperation mechanism for facilitating synergies between the militaries of India and Africa, named AMRUT (Africa India Militaries Regional Unity). Ghana is now increasing availing the Defence ITEC (the Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation) training program. India has decided to double ICCR and Defence ITEC slots for Ghana and further cooperation with the mantra of “Security through Stability”.

Cooperation in Public Digital Infrastructure and skill development were also discussed. Ghana, with significant sources of critical minerals, is a key player in the global supply chain considering their criticality of green technologies and, renewable energy transition. Both leaders extensively discussed the prospect of collaboration and investments to harness this mineral wealth. Amid China’s ban on rare-earth exports, Ghana can be a reliable supply partner for India. Countries have exchanged four MoUs on cultural exchange programmes, traditional medicine, institutionalising joint commission meetings and standardisation and certification practices.

To promote renewable energy efforts, India invited Ghana to join the Global Biofuel Alliance and offered cooperation in the development of digital public infrastructure and skill development. India is the regional founding member of the International Solar Alliance. India is positively reviewing Ghana’s aspirations to be part of BRICS.

The perspectives on UN reforms are closely aligned. Most African nations support India’s bid for permanent membership at the expanded UNSC. Seeking better representation, Africa created the Ezulwini Consensus outlining the need for UN reforms. AU’s Committee of Ten (C-10) demands at least two permanent and five non-permanent seats in the UNSC. Ghana is part of C-10. Strong bilateral ties with Ghana could further India’s multilateral objectives.

India lobbied for the inclusion of the African Union in the G20 during its presidency. Endeavouring to deliberate on the concerns, interests and priorities of the Global South, India has initiated Voice of the Global South Summits. African countries comprise the bulk of the Global South. Ghana has been an active participant in the summits. India has always championed the causes of African countries.

At the joint press conference, PM Modi remarked, “In Ghana’s journey of nation building, India is not just a supporter, but also a fellow traveller”. In recognition of India’s leadership, President Mahama has conferred Ghana’s national award, “The Officer of the Order of the Star of Ghana”, on Prime Minister Modi.

Ghana’s syncretic and pluralistic society is now home to various Hindu denominations as well. The positive contribution of the 15,000-strong Indian community to Ghana’s economic development is now evolving into a robust friendship bridge between both countries.

PM Modi addressed the Parliament of Ghana and announced that both leaders have decided to elevate ties to “Comprehensive Partnership” and termed that the friendship is sweeter than Ghana’s famous ‘Sugarloaf’ pineapple. He conveyed India’s support for Africa’s Development Framework, Agenda 2063. Paying tribute to Kwame Nkrumah, first Prime Minister of Ghana who laid the foundations for the India-Ghana bilateral ties, PM Modi said, “India carries Africa in its heart. Let us build a partnership not only for today, but for generations to come”.

Ghana’s vibrant democracy serves as a "Beacon of Hope” in West Africa. By revitalising ties with Ghana, India seeks to reshape and intensify collaboration with Africa.

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The Tibetan Equation: Time for a Policy Overhaul

Considered as ‘Living Buddha’, the 14^th Dalai Lama, has announced a succession plan on the eve of his 90^th birthday, ending speculations over reincarnation and disbanding of the 600-year-old religious institution of Tibetan Buddhism. Bestowing the exclusive power to carry out the succession plan with the members of Gaden Phodrang Trust, the Dalai Lama has rejected Chinese legal jurisdiction and authority. He indicated that the next incarnation will be born in the ‘free world’ in regions not under Chinese rule.

This has also put to rest decades of uncertainty about whether the Dalai Lama would reincarnate or emanate. Earlier, the Dalai Lama had signalled that he would choose not to reincarnate and be the last in the line of this tradition. He also indicated that he might pass on the mantle to someone of his choosing during his lifetime and not reincarnate. Besides profound spiritual significance, the announcement has been at the heart of complex geo-political conflict in the region.

Born as Lhamo Thondup in the Amodo region of Tibet in 1935, identified as the Dalai Lama incarnate at the age of two, after the death of the 13^th Dalai Lama in 1933, he was trained to become the next Dalai Lama.  Conferred with the monastic name of Tenzin Gyatso, at the age of 15, he was enthroned as the spiritual and religious leader of Tibetans. Following China’s annexation of Tibet in 1950-51, the Dalai Lama left Lhasa and fled to India in 1959 and established the Tibetan government in exile or CTA (Central Tibetan Administration), in Dharamsala.

In his recent book, published in March, “Voice of the Voiceless”, Dalai Lama wrote, “Since the purpose of a reincarnation is to carry on the work of the predecessor, the new Dalai Lama will be born in the free world”. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Dalai Lama chooses to reincarnate in India, for he has lived in India for 66 years. The 4^th Dalai Lama was born in Mongolia, and the 6^th Dalai Lama was traced to the Tawang region of Arunachal Pradesh.

After the Dalai Lama’s announcement, China insisted that the ‘Golden Urn method’ instituted by the Qing Dynasty would prevail. The Imperial Ordinance of 1793 (Better Governance of Tibet or the 29-article ordinance) of China prescribes the procedure for reincarnation of the Living Buddhas and subjects the selected candidate to the approval by Beijing.  Acceding to the challenging times of the time, the ordinance was applied in the 11^th, 12^th Dalai Lamas and dispensed with in the 9^th, 13^th and 14^th Dalai Lamas.  China’s disapproval of the Dalai Lama’s succession plan is a painful reminder of its blatant interference in the religious matters of Tibetans.

In 1995, just three days after the Dalai Lama recognised a six-year-old child reincarnate, born in Lhari County, Tibet, for the second-highest office of the 11^th Panchen Lama, he was abducted along with his parents. His mysterious disappearance is still unresolved. Despite international pressure, Chinese authorities refuse to confirm his whereabouts. The Panchen Lama is historically tasked with identifying the Dalai Lama's reincarnation, and hence, the position assumes considerable significance. In 1996, China replaced the Panchen Lama with another boy whose parents were believed to be members of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). China’s disapproval of the Dalai Lama’s succession plan has ascertained the prospect of Tibetans having two Dalai Lamas.

Given the large population of the Tibetan exile community in India, the Tibetan question is both a foreign policy issue and a domestic affair as well. The bulk of Tibetan exiles, roughly 85,000 people, live in India. Beijing views India’s asylum of the Dalai Lama as a contentious issue. Considered as the potent symbol of non-violence, compassion and religious tolerance, his presence in India rankles China as this effectively undermines the legitimacy of Chinese claims to Tibet.

Though he hasn’t alluded to independent status for Tibet, the Dalai Lama rejected China’s historical claims to Tibet by stating that ‘Chinese and Tibetan people have lived as neighbours’. He proposed a “Middle-way” approach of having a “genuine autonomy” while being a part of the PRC, frustrating Chinese dreams of reunification. Even though the CTA and Tibetan parliament have passed legislation on the “middle way solution” as a way to resolve the Sino-Tibetan issue, Tibetans haven’t forsaken the independence question. Thus, the Tibet question remains a vexatious issue for China.

Getting to the heart of China’s discomfort with the Dalai Lama, Vijay Gokhale, former Indian ambassador to China, in his paper- “The Next Dalai Lama Preparing for Incarnation: Why It Matters to India?” writes that the CCP’s policy approaches the Tibet question through the lens of social stability and national security. Religion is antithetical to communism. As a natural consequence, the CCP is highly distrustful of the religious influence of the Dalai Lama over the Tibetan populace.

China’s intolerance towards the Dalai Lama flows from the CCP’s inherent ideological intolerance towards religion and the disproportionate influence of the Dalai Lama on indigenous Tibetans despite over six decades of his absence from the original seat of Tibetan Buddhism, Potala Palace, Lhasa. He is revered as the embodiment of Tibetan identity, values and religious beliefs. Sadly, for Beijing, its military might and economic integration attempts have failed to erase the Dalai Lama from the collective memories of Tibetans. CCP considers the Dalai Lama a threat to social stability.

After the two rounds of failed exploratory talks between the CCP and the Dalai Lama in 1982 and 1984, to build international pressure on China, the Dalai Lama has internationalised the Tibetan issue. Subsequently, the CCP, which is extremely irascible about its international image, labelled him a “splittist” and a “wolf in sheep’s clothing”.

Additionally, burgeoning Western interest in the Tibetan question accentuated the CCP’s fears of religious institutions becoming conduits for foreign interference. CCP is keen on having a pliant Dalai Lama to bury the Tibetan question. The Dalai Lama’s rejection of Chinese authority on the reincarnation process has widened the existing discordance. PRC intends to quell the idea of the Dalai Lama to subdue Tibet into complete subservience. CCP believes Tibetan Buddhism has a potential destabilisation role and deems reincarnation as the cornerstone of the ‘securitisation’ of PRC.

Notwithstanding several centuries of religious and cultural contacts with Tibet, India has meekly surrendered its customary rights in Tibetan territory after the Chinese invasion to avoid confrontation with the PRC.  Even after ceding its extraterritorial privileges in 1954, thanks to India’s diplomatic pusillanimity, China invaded India in 1962.

China acknowledges Indian influence on the Dalai Lama, but India refrained from overtly playing the ‘Tibet Card’ to avoid provoking Beijing. However, India permits the Tibetan exile community to practice and nurture their religion and culture. The CTA and the Tibetan parliament operate from India. India accords high respect to the Dalai Lama as the living legend of Tibetan Buddhism and allows foreign delegations to visit Dharmsala.

“Tibet is China’s soft underbelly”, and the CCP, wary of this vulnerability, has steadily ratcheted up repressive legislative measures to obliterate its religious identity. Ushering in “Sinicisation” of Tibet, the CCP has introduced mandatory patriotic re-education for Tibetan monks and nuns and delegated CCP cadres to oversee the functioning of Buddhist monasteries in Tibet.  It also approved and recognised 93 newly reincarnated Living Buddhas by 2022. While the CCP is systematically uprooting the basic foundations of Tibetan Buddhism, the institute blossomed in India. India is now the seat of Tibetan educational and cultural institutions.

Despite sheltering the exiled Tibetan community, India never allowed any anti-Chinese activities on its territory. Indeed, India has been circumspect in dealing with the Dalai Lama and strictly upholds the three M’s- Mutual Respect, Mutual Sensitivities and Mutual Interests. Beijing considers all aspects related to Tibet as internal affairs and brooks no external interference. China expects India to unconditionally extend all assistance regarding Tibet, but wouldn’t extend similar reciprocity. Post- Article 370 abrogation, it backed Pakistan in internationalising the Kashmir issue.

Clearly, China’s relentless anti-India campaigns, including the veto blocks at the UNSC, blatant violation of mutually agreed bilateral treaties, and continued incursions along the border, warrant a serious recalibration of India's approach. The growing list of China’s inimical unilateral anti-India actions, such as military help and intelligence support to Pakistan during Operation Sindoor, withdrawal of Chinese technicians from Indian electronic manufacturing, stalling of rare earths and speciality fertilisers and infiltration of India’s military supply chains are now reaching a geopolitical inflexion point.

Unlike India’s nuanced diplomacy, the US has swiftly and tactfully rechartered its Tibetan policy to align with its strategic interests.  During World War II, the US never questioned China’s claims to Tibet but directed the Dalai Lama to disavow the Seventeenth Amendment after the 1950 Korean War. The CIA had assisted the Khampa Rebellion in East Tibet. After the failed rebellion, the US recognised the special status of Tibet and acknowledged its self-determination.

In 1979, the Nixon administration adopted a hands-off approach to Tibet to establish diplomatic ties with China. By the late 1980s, the US Congress supported the Tibetan Buddhist cause, hosted the Dalai Lama at the White House and created a special coordinator for Tibetan affairs to oversee human rights issues of Tibetans

By 2002, when US-China ties reached a new level, the US Congress passed the Tibetan Policy Act (TPA), making it a political agenda. In 2020, Trump signed the second piece of legislation, turning the Tibetan Policy and Support Act (TPSA) into a law. TPSA endorsed Tibetan rights to select their leaders and termed China’s interference in the reincarnation process as “blatant violation of the fundamental religious freedom of Tibetan Buddhists”, and allowed the US administration to sanction CCP officials interfering with the identification and installation of the 15^th Dalai Lama. The law mandated the special coordinator on Tibetan affairs to explore international coalitions to oppose Chinese efforts to select Tibetan Living Buddhas and protect Tibetan religious rights.

Bolstering Tibetan policy, in 2024, Biden signed the third piece of legislation- the Resolve Tibet Act (Promotion of a Resolution to the Tibet-China Dispute Act), which asserted that the US government “has never taken a position that Tibet was a part of China since ancient times”. It specifically defined that the Tibetan Autonomous Region (TAR) comprises Qinghai, Gansu, Sichuan and Yunnan. Washington’s three-piece legislation, besides safeguarding the Tibetan Buddhist rights, can double up as a potent geopolitical tool against China’s grand reunification dream. The US has certainly played into Chinese fears of foreign interference. To ward off any external forces, Xi has tightened regulations on Tibetans and to reassert China’s legitimacy, started calling Tibet 'Xizang'.

Eschewing the US administration's international coalition for the Tibetan question, India explicitly remained neutral to the US legislation on Tibet. Cognisant of the potential implications of the Tibet issue on India-China relations, New Delhi deliberately manages the Dalai Lama very cautiously.

Reacting to the Dalai Lama’s succession plan, the MEA clarified, “The government of India does not take any position or speak on matters concerning beliefs and practices of faith and religion. The government has always upheld freedom of religion for all in India and will continue to do so”. However, in a significant departure, GoI will be represented by Ministers Kiren Rijiju, Rajeev Ranjan Singh, Chief Minister of Arunachal Pema Khandu, Chief Minister of Sikkim Prem Singh Tamang and Karnataka Minister Gangadaraiah at the 90^th Birthday celebration of Dalai Lama on July 6^th as a signal to China.

As a vibrant democracy committed to upholding the religious rights of the persecuted community and their rights, India must now take a strong stance. As a home to a major chunk of Tibetan Buddhists, the reincarnation process and the interregnum period of identification of the 15^th Dalai Lama can have significant security implications for India. India can leverage the exiled Tibetan community, but refrains from provoking China. But as Beijing continues to ruthlessly trample India’s ‘Red Lines’, it is time to recalibrate its Tibetan policy.

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PM Modi’s Historic Visit to Croatia Opens a Fresh Chapter in Indian Diplomacy

Given its timeless antiquity, India has been a fount of wisdom and knowledge and a melting pot of cultures. In its long illustrious cilivisational journey, India attracted people from far and wide and engaged extensively with different societies. But centuries of invasions and colonisation disrupted the cultural and social fabric of this self-sustaining, prosperous civilisation. However, even after independence, internalising a sense of inferiority, attempting to fit into the Western rubric, Indian leadership undervalued its rich cultural heritage.

The vestige of colonial hangover lingeringly impacted its worldview. Since assuming power in 2014, PM Modi has reshaped foreign policy with Indian values and energised it. Wearing his identity proudly on his sleeves, PM Modi boosted Indian pride. This reimagination of foreign relations is mirrored in India’s new confidence to forge relationships on the strength of its civilisational connection as well.

Adeptly deploying soft power and economic influence, India is now widening engagement with the comity of nations. PM Modi’s landmark visit to Croatia rightly fits into the new paradigm of his transformational agenda of foreign policy.

After wrapping official visits to Cyprus and Canada, in the last leg of a three-nation trip, PM Modi headed for Croatia on June 18, the first-ever visit by an Indian Prime Minister to the Balkan nation. Extending a rousing welcome, Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic received PM Modi at the airport. Other than shared values of democracy, pluralism and the rule of law, marked cultural resonance sets India-Croatian relations on a unique pedestal.

After establishing diplomatic ties in 1992, countries witnessed several high-level leadership visits including President Ramnath Kovind’s state visit in 2019 and EAM Jaishankar’s trip in 2021. PM Modi met his Croatian counterpart on the sidelines of COP26 at Glasgow in 2023.

PM Modi’s pioneering visit to Croatia comes months after the first-ever European Union College of Commissioners visit to India, which included a delegate from Croatia. In 2023, during Croatian Foreign Minister Radman’s visit to India to attend the Raisina Dialogue, countries exchanged an MoU on defence cooperation. Taking this forward, PM Modi advocated a ‘Defence Cooperation Plan’ for long-term cooperation in defence sector including seeking opportunities for defence collaboration, training and military exchanges.

In the period of the 1970s and 1980s, India had strong trade relations with Yugoslavia and even purchased ships from Yugoslavia. Croatia, which was then part of Yugoslavia, accounted for two-thirds of the trade. Keen on strengthening cooperation in ship building, reinvoking the past ties, PM Modi invited Croatian companies to explore opportunities in port modernisation, coastal-zone development and participate in India’s multi-modal connectivity initiative, SAGARMALA.

Croatia is an integral part of the European Union’s meticulously planned Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T). Strategically located on the Adriatic Sea, the Croatian ports of Rijeka, Split and Ploce have been the vital nodes for European exports. Situated at the intersection of key European transport corridors, Croatia is a gateway to Central and Eastern Europe.

Croatia is also part of the 12-nation Three Sea Initiative (TSI) that aims to promote economic cooperation in energy, transport and communication infrastructure. Comprising nations lying along the north-south axis from the Baltic Sea to the Adriatic Sea to the Black Sea, the initiative fosters interconnectedness. Croatia hosted the initiative’s inaugural summit at Dubrovnik in 2016.

Initially enthused by the prospect of trans-continental connectivity opportunities of China’s BRI, Croatia invited Beijing to the inaugural summit of TSI.  However, Croatia’s enthusiasm soon dissipated, giving way to caution and scepticism. Given India’s democratic credentials and transparent functioning, IMEC can emerge as a pragmatic choice for Croatia. Countries like Italy, France, Greece, Germany and the EU are weighing in to be part of IMEC. Considering the maritime traditions, leaders acknowledged the need for improving connectivity by expanding cooperation in ports, shipping domains, including through IMEC.

Recognising the importance of supply chain resilience, leaders affirmed to boost bilateral trade worth $515 million, through greater business-to-business collaboration, joint ventures and investment partnerships and innovation.

To foster collaboration and innovation partnerships, countries plan to strengthen the India-Croatia Startup Bridge launched in December 2021. PM Modi suggested that Croatia leverage the skilled talent of India and expedite the mobility partnership agreement.

To inject fresh impetus into the bilateral partnership, countries exchanged four MoUs- cooperation in agriculture and allied sectors; cooperation in science and technology; a cultural exchange program; and an MOU on Hindi chair at the University of Zagreb. India has offered to share space expertise with Croatia.

Countries are exploring opportunities for cooperation in digitalisation, AI, renewable energy, pharmaceuticals, tourism, hospitality, health care, cybersecurity and machine learning.

Being part of NATO and as the youngest member of the EU, Croatia wields immense influence way beyond its size. Its position in the European institutions can be valuable in terms of advocating Indian interests during decision-making. Croatia can play an important role in furthering the early conclusion of the India-EU FTA and advancing the India-EU strategic partnership. 

Yoga and Ayurveda are very popular in Croatia. The Department of Indology of the University of Zagreb, functioning for the past 60 years with a dedicated Sanskrit Chair, has been doing commendable work in Indology. Traditional Ratha Yatra has been carried out in Zagreb downtown since 2016. The Inter-University Centre of Dubrovnik was the venue for the 7^th International Vedic Workshop. India and Croatia have close cultural links dating back several centuries.

Burgeoning interest in Indic-Oriented societies like The Art of Living, ISKCON, Bhakti Marga and Yoga in Daily Life are bringing both nations closer. Underscoring the close cultural connections PM Plenkovic has gifted the first printed Sanskrit grammar book in 1790 written by Ivan Filip Vezdin to PM Modi.

Quick succession of conflicts, intense contestations across different theatres and reigning uncertainty are forcing countries to rapidly reconfigure partnerships. Trump’s tariff regime, threat of supply chain disruptions have compelled the EU to seek new markets, investment opportunities and derisk from China. Complementing Europe’s attempts to diversify trade, India is engaging in intensive deliberations on market access and tariffs. Having finalised the FTA with the UK, India and the EU have fast-tracked the FTA negotiations. Raring to conclude FTA with the EU by the end of this year, EAM Jaishankar has embarked on a 7-day visit to France and Belgium. India is pulling out all stops to strengthen ties with the EU and operationalise IMEC for seamless connectivity.

In the wake of Operation Sindoor, PM Modi’s trip to Europe to attend the Nordic Summit and travel to Croatia was cancelled. PM Modi’s landmark visit to Croatia is an attempt to resurrect the cultural and trade ties, which languished due to the political apathy and were roiled by scandals of the previous leadership. The visit marks an important milestone in India’s European engagement.

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