Seychelles, a Vital Node in New Delhi’s Indian Ocean Arc

PM Modi was on a three-day visit to Seychelles (June 27-29), his second since 2015, to attend the 50^th anniversary of their independence. Invited to grace the National Day Celebrations as the guest of honour, the visit also coincides with 50 years of the establishment of diplomatic ties between India and Seychelles. Received ceremoniously by Seychellois President Patrick Herimine and Vice President Sebastian Pillar, the diplomatic warmth resonates with the growing trust in the strategic partnership.

Disparate in sizes and separated by the Indian Ocean, which is also the binding anchor in the relationships, both nations exuded a new enthusiasm, an ocean of opportunities to build an enduring partnership. Though small in land area, just 460 square kilometres, Seychelles commands an Exclusive Economic Zone of 1.3 million square kilometres and sits adjacent to the Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs). Notwithstanding the size, India has always treated nations with respect and as equal partners. Reiterating the significance of maritime neighbours in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), PM Modi announced that Seychelles is an important partner of India’s SAGAR vision in 2015.

India’s historic ties with the Indian Ocean Islands stretch back several centuries, and the Indian Diaspora played a pivotal role in nurturing the connections. The first recorded arrival of five Indians on board the Thelemaque ship at Saint Anne Island of Seychelles dates to 1770. Since then, successive waves of migrations from Tamil Nadu and Gujarat have created enduring bonds of cultural and economic linkages between the two nations. The bilateral ties are underpinned by close people-to-people connections, with the Indian community accounting for 10 per cent of the Seychelles population serving as a living bridge.

During his visit, PM Modi underlined that Seychelles lies at the convergence of India’s advocacy for the Global South policy and the Mutual and Holistic Advancement for Security and Growth for All in the Region (MAHASAGAR) Vision, a holistic approach to Ocean governance. It attempts to integrate maritime safety challenges- maritime terrorism, piracy, drug trafficking, Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) fishing with climate action, blue economy, sustainability, resilience and connectivity, which are vital aspects for maritime nations.

After Iran’s weaponisation of geography during the recent conflict, the strategic importance of maritime routes has become more pronounced. Comprising 115 islands, Seychelles, an archipelago spanning 4° to 10° South of the equator, is close to choke points - Mozambique Channel, Bab-el-Mandeb and Cape of Good Hope and major energy trade routes. Aligning with the security requirements of the archipelago, India has gifted two Dornier aircraft in the past and during the current visit, PM Modi announced the upgradation of an aircraft with a glass cockpit and the completion of the refit of PS Zoroaster. Additionally, India has gifted a fast patrol vessel, L’Espoir (meaning Hope in Creole), 10 utility vehicles and five laser-assisted radial boats for maritime surveillance.

Developmental Partnership was at the core of India’s partnership with Seychelles and perfectly blends with the Joint Vision for Sustainability, Economic Growth and Security through Enhanced Linkages (SESEL) adopted by both countries in February 2026. This vision is mirrored in India’s assistance to the nation in development projects, capacity building and training as per its requirements and priorities.  

Notably, one in every 50 Seychellois has been a part of India’s training programmes. These formed the bulk of the MoUs signed between countries, and other outcomes included agreements on UPI digital payment infrastructure, export of generic medicines, agriculture, extradition, recognition of seafarers’ training, line of credit, space cooperation and development of a new Seychelles National Hospital. Leaders have laid the ground for the construction of the Seychelles Professional and Technical Education Centre under the special economic package of $175 million announced during President Herminie’s visit to India in February 2026.

For the first time, India extended credit in rupees amounting to Rs 1250 crores. India also provided the archipelago with 500 metric tons of rice and 8500 tons of cement to stabilise food security and infrastructure challenges which were faced due to the Middle East crisis.

Simultaneously, countries are also advancing cooperation in energy, especially green energy and climate action. Seychelles is a Small Island Developing State (SIDS), highly vulnerable to climate change. In his address to the National Assembly, the first ever by an Indian Prime Minister, PM Modi, who calls SIDS, Large Ocean Countries, expressed his steadfast commitment to advance their aspirations at the global level. Positioning the Blue Economy as a strategic pillar of the bilateral relationship, keen on championing climate change, India pledged to share expertise in ocean observation, marine science, and coastal management. Seychelles joined India’s Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI), affirming its trust in India’s climate leadership. In recognition of the pioneering efforts of PM Modi in combatting climate change, Seychelles aptly honoured him with the “Guardian of Blue Horizon” honour.

The conferment of the highest distinction by Seychelles is a new milestone in the India-Seychelles relationship that witnessed cyclical fluctuations in diplomatic ties. In 2015, PM Modi, during his Indian Ocean outreach, signed foundation agreements with Mauritius and Seychelles to build strategic installations at Agalega and Assumption Islands, respectively. In 2024, India and Mauritius jointly inaugurated an air and naval staging facility at Agalega Island. However, eleven years later, the Assumption Island agreement, hijacked by narrative, hit a roadblock.

India’s maritime plans in the Indian Ocean suffered a setback after usual suspects began to peddle Agalega and Assumption Island agreements as military bases. In 2021, strongly denying reports of surrendering sovereignty, Mauritius disclosed the dual-use capabilities of the project. Both India and Mauritius even reworked the blueprint of the project to allay local concerns over environmental fears. Agalega now serves the twin purposes of catering to the patrolling needs of the 2.3 million Sq.km of Mauritian EEZ and offering critical logistical and surveillance support to the Indian Navy.

In 2018, India and Seychelles revised the text of the Assumption Island agreement, which President David Faure approved. The revised text wasn’t made public, fanning dangerous speculation and suspicion about a 20-year lease for the construction of an airstrip and jetty. Indian-origin leader of the opposition in the parliament, Wavel John Charles Ramkalawan, stalled its ratification even after India clarified that the operational control would be with Seychelles. After Ramkalawan became President in 2020, India reiterated its commitment to strengthening maritime security and sent 50,000 doses of COVID vaccine. After COVID, the Assumption Island project lost momentum. Though Ramkalawan didn’t cancel the Assumption Island agreement, he didn’t even ratify it. President Herimine won the October 2025 Presidential elections and visited India in February 2026.

Located southwest of Seychelles, Assumption Island lies along the Mozambique Channel through which global trade transits. Recognising the strategic importance of Seychelles, China has forged close ties with the archipelago through infrastructure contracts since 2000. It has built the Supreme Court, the National Assembly, law institutes, academic institutes, roads, buildings and signed a defence pact in 2004. By 2011, Beijing commenced negotiations for a naval base at Assumption Island and faced domestic opposition over environmental concerns. The Island is close to Aldabra Atoll, a UNESCO World Heritage Site and home to the World’s largest population of tortoises. After China established its first overseas military base at Djibouti, it dropped the Assumption Island plan. This injected a sense of urgency into India’s strategic calculus, prompting New Delhi to secure a foothold in the region.

The strategic geographic location of Seychelles and the India-China rivalry have lent the archipelago strong leverage. Successive leaders of Seychelles secured maximum gratification from India and China by indulging in double talks. Factoring in Seychelles’ colonial legacy as a former French-British colony, India has even explored a trilateral cooperation arrangement for Assumption Island with France. Seychelles’ current dispensation has adopted a new vision which heavily leans on defence capacity-building, joint patrolling, and hydrography. A special invitation to PM Modi as Guest of Honour for the 50^th National Day Celebrations underscores a growing trust in India’s friendship.

Along with a change in leadership, India’s remarkable role in the UK-Mauritius treaty and the transfer of sovereignty of the Chagos Archipelago to Mauritius are no mean feat. This diplomatic success, along with India’s strategic patience towards the Maldives in turning an anti-India regime into a friendly one, is definitely not lost on these Indian Ocean Nations. It may not be a coincidence that PM Modi has also been the Guest of Honour for the 50^th anniversary of Mauritius Independence Day Celebrations. On that eve, India signed a landmark agreement to establish a satellite telemetry, tracking and communication (TTC) station in the Chagos Archipelago, in a huge boost to India’s space research and maritime surveillance capabilities.

Upholding the mantra of win-win partnership, India has been forging close ties with the extended neighbourhood in the Indian Ocean. Traditionally, India has been the security provider to the entire region and has played a crucial role in averting coups in the Maldives and Seychelles. In the 1980’s several coup attempts were made against President René of the Seychelles. Indian Navy launched “Operation Flowers Are Blooming” in 1986 and dispatched INS Vindhyagiri to Victoria after receiving a firsthand intelligence report of a coup by the Defence Minister. Indian Vessel remained at the port on the pretext of repair for two months and averted the coup. In another instance, President Rene was away from Seychelles for the Non-Aligned Conference in Harare. PM Rajiv Gandhi, who was at the conference having learnt about a coup attempt, lent his Air Force One to reach Port Victoria. 

Seychelles’ status as a high-income country has led many Western countries to scale back financial and military aid, creating a critical gap in the archipelago’s maritime security capabilities. India has stepped up to fill this critical role. To strengthen its engagement, India has constituted the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), which includes Mauritius and Seychelles. Seychelles has now become a full member of the Colombo Security Conclave (CSC), which primarily focuses on maritime safety and security.

India now has a permanent eye in the Western Indian Ocean through which Chinese naval vessels must pass when transiting between the Pacific and Indian Ocean theatres. As Beijing continues to expand its commercial and military infrastructure with ‘Pearl of Strings’ encircling India, New Delhi is also broadening its arc of influence.

 Mauritius and Seychelles are emerging as key nodes in India’s evolving Indian Ocean Arc, complementing Lakshadweep, Nicobar Islands, Indonesia’s Sabang and Singapore. Through sustained, patient and consequential diplomacy, India is transforming engagement with littoral states into mutually beneficial strategic infrastructure.

Laying out India’s vision, PM Modi succinctly stated, “The Indian Ocean does not separate India and Seychelles. It connects us. That is why we meet not as strangers. We meet as old friends”. The statement encapsulates India’s vision for the region- one rooted in shared history, mutual respect and a common commitment to ensuring that the Indian Ocean remains safe, secure, open and inclusive.

 

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France at the Heart of India’s Tech Pivot

PM Modi’s seventh visit to France, spread across three phases, featured the inauguration of Bharat Innovates 2026 at Nice, a quick trip to Évian-les-Bains for the G7 meetings and a stopover at Paris for the France VivaTech Summit.

With geopolitical uncertainties mounting and traditional alliance structures rapidly eroding, the global order is undergoing significant realignment. Openly acknowledging this huge shift, PM Modi, addressing the G7 Summit, declared, “trust is the new global currency” and called for a world that moves “from donor-recepient to partnerships based on trust and equality”. Instructively, while new interest-based coalitions are shaping up, only partnerships anchored in ‘mutual trust and mutual respect’, like Indo-French ties, remained resilient amid global upheavals.

India and France elevated ties to “Special Global Strategic Partnership” in February 2026 and jointly inaugurated the India-France Year of Innovation to expand and diversify cooperation in AI, innovation, digital technology, renewable energy, trade and education. The journey of both countries as partners in innovation began with the Paris AI Action Summit, co-hosted by President Macron and PM Modi in 2025. Taking up the baton, India held the subsequent AI Summit edition in New Delhi.

Coincidentally, both countries have reviewed ties a day after the US ordered Anthropic to suspend access to foreign countries. Besides, jolting countries from complacency, it has exposed the critical vulnerability of relying on foreign technological infrastructure.  The weaponisation of AI has triggered debates of technological sovereignty. It served as a wake-up call for nations to build sovereign infrastructure and develop independent foundational models. To insulate businesses from such shocks, enterprises are now moving away from single-model dependencies to multi-model architectures.

To safeguard technological sovereignty from the overbearing conduct of the superpowers, Middle powers are now deepening issue-based coalitions. The coming together of India and France, both Middle Powers, is also rooted in their quest to unlock innovation potential and build a future-oriented innovation partnership. Positioning innovation as an important pillar of partnership with the India-France Innovation Roadmap 2030, countries attest to its role in economic resilience, sustainable development, strategic autonomy, and technological and industrial sovereignty.

Firming up the innovation partnership, France hosted the first foreign edition of Bharat Innovates, a flagship initiative showcasing India’s deep-tech startups. This platform aims to become a launchpad for India’s technological ambitions. Jointly inaugurated by PM Modi and President Macron, 120 Indian startups and 500 global investors, venture capitalists, and business leaders participated in the event.

Technology remained one of the focus aspects of PM Modi’s week-long visit to France and Slovakia, where he eloquently presented India’s human-centric and inclusive AI vision. To mobilise tech cooperation and investments, PM Modi attended the 10^th edition of VivaTech in Paris, where India was the AI country of focus. At the event, PM Modi met CEOs of Mistral AI, Saint Gobain, Alstom and the CMA CGM Group and briefed them about India’s aspirations of becoming an innovation economy. Addressing the event, PM Modi hard sold India’s digital transformation that has phenomenally revolutionised Indian lives by delivering prosperity at the grassroots levels.

Attended by tech giants, innovators, business leaders and 15,000 startups drawn from 165 countries, the Paris edition also had an Indian Pavilion. Over 80 deep-tech Indian startups showcased their innovations at the event.  Taking a serious note of the US government’s directive to Anthropic to suspend access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models for foreign nationals, European companies like Siemens, Renault, Chaps Vision announced their plans to diversify their AI providers at the event.

Rearing to become an innovation economy, India is investing heavily to build a technology ecosystem. In the past decades, India has launched Startup India, Digital India Programme (2015), National Supercomputing Mission (2015), Semicon India Programme (2021), Design Linked Incentive Scheme (DLI, 2021), National Quantum Mission (2023), National Blockchain Framework (2021), Chips to Startup Programme (C2S, 2022), and the Bharat6G Alliance (B6GA, 2023) to harness the innovative potential of Indian youth.

Sustained investments and strong policy support helped India rise to the 38^th position in the Global Innovation Index in 2025 from the 81^st position in 2015. India ranks first among lower-middle-income countries in innovation. But India’s ranking woefully falls short of its ambitious vision of a $10 trillion economy by 2034-25. Despite strong digital infrastructure, a huge talent pool, government initiatives and massive AI penetration, India fares rather poorly in terms of AI infrastructure and innovation. Its R&D investment (0.65 per cent of GDP) is way behind the global average (2-3 per cent). Stymied by brain drain, India suffers from an innovation output and input balance.

France has a robust research infrastructure and venture ecosystem. India has huge, unexplored, organically growing tech talent capable of providing cost-effective deep-tech solutions. Integrating these complementary strengths, countries can address the 21^st-century global challenges. To concretise this synergy, countries have affirmed to adopt the India-France Innovation Roadmap 2030, which resonates with India’s 2047 Viksit Bharat and France 2030, an innovation flagship initiative of the French government.

Working together for the shared vision of combating climate change, India and France instituted the International Solar Alliance (ISA) in 2015, a beacon of sustainable development with over 120 signatory nations. A decade later, on the foundation of shared values and vision, countries signed a declaration on Artificial Intelligence. In the recent past, countries have launched initiatives ranging from security to sustainability to provide solutions to global issues.

Giving a huge fillip to the India-France Innovation ecosystem, countries are promoting academic collaboration, scientific cooperation, and strengthening frameworks for mutual recognition of academic qualifications. France has set a talent mobility target of 30,000 Indian students by 2030. To facilitate academic mobility, it has instituted welcoming legal pathways.

Through InnoXchange Bridge, countries are developing a dedicated entrepreneurship corridor for reciprocal access to research organisations, technology platforms and innovation clusters, startup ecosystems. In addition to the India-France Innovation Network (IFIN), countries are strengthening partnerships between private space ecosystems and consent-based data sharing on global health challenges. Countries have signed 19 MoUs to seamlessly integrate the research ecosystems of both countries through collaborations between the elite research and academic institutions under the broad framework of Innovation Roadmap 2030.

Reviewing the bilateral relations spanning diverse sectors, countries exchanged MoUs on the establishment of the Centre of Excellence in skilling in Aeronautics at IIT Kanpur, expanding the spread of UPI in France, the establishment of a high-level mechanism to double bilateral trade in the next five years, cooperation in high-speed rail development and human space exploration. Along with the traditional sectors like trade, textiles and engineering, countries are also intensifying cooperation in defence, nuclear energy and space.

Tighter US immigration policies, persistent H1B visa issues, mounting green card backlogs and high visa denials Indian students have widened faultlines and strained longstanding tech collaboration frameworks. Additionally, the strategic tech ‘kill button’ wielded by Trump has prompted India to actively deepen ties with reliable and trusted partners. As a result, the Indian tech ecosystem is accelerating its drift towards Europe.

India has signalled its commitment to open up pathways for trade, technology and tourism by signing the FTA with the EU. Among European countries, India’s relationship with France is one of its most enduring bilateral partnerships. As a resident power of Indo-Pacific, France occupies a unique place in India’s strategic calculus, making it a significant player in India’s geopolitical realm. France is emerging as a vital connecting point between the European and Indian innovation, industrial and tech ecosystems. India’s growing engagement with France is not a mere economic choice but a carefully calibrated strategic pivot.

 

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Why Slovakia Matters in Modi’s European Calculus

 Arriving in Bratislava on June 15^th, PM Modi became the first Indian Prime Minister to visit Slovakia since its independence in 1993. After the 1996’s President Shankar Dayal Sharma’s first-ever high-level visit to Slovakia and President Droupadi Murmu’s state visit in April 2025, this is India’s highest- level engagement with Bratislava.

PM Modi’s historic visit to the Central European country has set the Commentariat thinking about its strategic relevance and significance. Heightened geopolitical turbulences since the COVID times, the Russia-Ukraine War, and Trump tariffs have exacerbated trade imbalances, supply chain vulnerabilities and risks of safe maritime commerce. To insulate from these global challenges and reduce dependencies, nations are diversifying exports and seeking new growth and investment opportunities. Advancing greater global integration, India has been aggressively expediting FTAs with other nations.  Bringing to a close twenty years of negotiations, which were stalled in between by concluding an FTA with the EU in January 2026. This has reciprocally increased market access between 27 EU countries and India.

While India prominently engages with major Western European countries, its outreach to Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries hasn’t been on par. Slovakia, a Central European country with a population of 5.4 million, with about $2 billion in bilateral trade, can be India’s gateway to CEE countries. Slovakia is an active member of the Visegrad group or V4, comprising the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Poland. It is also a member of the Slavkov 3 or Austerlitz Format, along with the Czech Republic and Austria. These two groups form the diplomatic backbone of the 3 Seas Initiative, a group of thirteen European countries lying between the Adriatic Sea, the Baltic Sea and Black Sea. These three groups work in tandem on economic and connectivity issues.

Interestingly, all the members of the 3 Seas Initiative except Austria and Greece are part of China’s 16+1 or China-CEEC Cooperation, established to promote its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Established in 2012, the 16+1 has held annual conferences till 2021. It came to an end following mass exits, unfulfilled economic promises and reassessment of Chinese reliance post COVID-19.  From 2021 to 2023, most EU countries switched over from decoupling to de-risking China except for three- Germany, Bulgaria and Slovakia. Unlike other CEE countries like Lithuania and Estonia, which pursued a security-first policy, Slovakia, a participant of BRI, largely resisted the de-risking from China policy and pursued closer economic ties with China.

In 2024, Slovakia elevated ties with China to a ‘Strategic Partnership’, backing the One China Policy. In January 2026, both countries held their first Intergovernmental Strategic Partnership meeting. It has emerged as a potential entry for Chinese EVs into the EU. Having joined the EU in 2004 along with the Visegrad group, Slovakia pursues a pragmatic foreign policy, balancing ties with the EU, China and integrating with NATO.

Slovakia, the former Czechoslovakia, along with other Eastern European Countries, which were part of the Soviet Union, have traditionally been India-friendly. Slovakia’s “four cardinal points (North, South, East, West)” foreign policy is hinged on diversifying ties with all nations. It emphasises forging economic engagement, strategic partnerships and technological cooperation with Global South and Indo-Pacific nations.

Slovakia’s Indo-Pacific policy rests on the premise that the gravity of the global economic development is shifting to the region. It considers Indo-Pacific as an evolving hub of innovation and cutting-edge technology. To reduce its dependence on the traditional European markets, expand its export markets and attract investment, Slovakia considers the countries in these regions as important partners. In tune with the policy recommendations, Slovakia is eager to develop bilateral relations and strengthen cooperation in science, research, and technology, and people-to-people ties¹.

India, having elevated ties with Poland to a Strategic Partnership in 2024 and having concluded a strategic partnership with the Czech Republic, is keen on energising ties with Slovakia.  India is an important investor in Slovakia through Jaguar Land Rover and the Amara Raja group in InoBat.

Dubbed as “European Detroit”, Slovakia, the powerhouse of automobile manufacturing, has a rapidly ageing population. Slovakia produces nearly 1 million vehicles annually. Major players include- Stellantis, Volvo, Kia, Volkswagen, Jaguar Land Rover. Tata Group is deeply integrated with Jaguar Land Rover. Opportunities for deeper collaboration exist in this sector, which is 44% of the country’s industrial output. Indians numbering 11,000 are the second-largest group of workers after Ukrainians.

Instructively, on a day when Trump posted, "Sadly, if you import people from Third World Countries, you quickly become a Third World Country — And there's not a thing you can do about it”, India and Slovakia have signed an agreement on Mobility and Migration.

Recently, driven by economic interests, European countries, despite their deep scepticism about India’s democracy, are rallying to engage with it. Unlike other EU countries, where Russia remains another sticking point, PM Fico, a populist leader, has consistently advocated for normalisation with Moscow. Putin has also praised PM Fico for pursuing an independent foreign policy.

Hedging against Trump’s escalatory tariffs and China’s mercantilism, European countries are now betting on India. China has restricted market access to European countries. This highly skewed trade balance in favour of China has forced the EU to convene a meeting with China on June 18^{th 2}. The deficit is becoming unsustainable for the EU due to Chinese subsidies and tax rebates to exporting firms. Instead of reconciliation, China warned the EU of countermeasures if it goes ahead with the draft of the “industrial acceleration” bill. The bill restricts Chinese takeover of European firms and excludes products made outside the EU bloc for public procurement. For the past 20-30 years, China has been talking about opening its markets, but nothing much has changed.

European countries are now more interested in India’s expanding markets. India, intent on diversifying defence procurements and building technological prowess, is exploring European collaboration. Among the major Slovak defence firms operating in India are CSM Industry, VRM, Konštrukta Defence & Aliter Technologies and JCBL group. Pertinently, in his interaction with business leaders in Bratislava, PM Modi underscored major policy reforms and ongoing Slovak investments in India and highlighted growing opportunities in AI, infrastructure, renewable energy, semiconductors, digital innovation, nuclear, civil nuclear energy and healthcare. Over 60% electricity in Slovakia is generated from nuclear sources.

To explore new avenues for cooperation and strengthen existing cooperative mechanisms, PM Modi and his counterpart, Robert Fico, elevated ties to a Comprehensive Partnership. Countries recognised defence, security and connectivity as pillars of cooperation and underscored Slovakia’s position as a Central European transport hub. Both sides signed 11 agreements, including the Letter of Intent on Defence Cooperation, digital technologies, labour migration, higher education and research, quantum communication and critical infrastructure protection, audio-visual creation, traditional medicine, tourism, students exchange, research collaboration and scientific cooperation.

Additionally, countries decided to establish the first-ever ICCR Chair in Artificial Intelligence at the Technical University of Kosice, a joint working group on counterterrorism and consular dialogue. Countries are also exploring cooperation in new and emerging technologies such as 5G use cases, 6G standardisation, Internet of Things, machine to machine (M2M) applications.

Building a momentum for its permanent membership in the expanded UNSC, India is intensifying diplomatic efforts to garner support. Slovakia strongly endorses New Delhi’s pitch for text-based negotiations and advocates expansion of permanent and non-permanent categories in the UNSC.  Every UN member, be it a superpower or a small country, has equal voting power.  Slovakia strongly supports India’s permanent membership to the expanded UNSC and Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).

In recognition of PM Modi’s contributions in building the bilateral ties, the Slovakian President, Pelligrini, conferred the highest state decoration- the Order of the White Double Cross, First Class. Celebrating India-Slovakia’s enduring friendship, Bratislava Palace was illuminated in the tri-colours. India’s Yoga, Ayurveda, movies and cuisine are very popular in Slovakia. During his two-day visit, PM Modi also met Dr Robert Gafrik, who translated ten Sanskrit Upanishads into Slovak, symbolising cultural closeness between both countries. As a special gesture, Prime Minister Fico came to see off PM Modi at the conclusion of the visit.

Amid rapid geopolitical alignments and economic warfare, India is seeking strong partnerships with European countries across trade, defence cooperation, advanced manufacturing and emerging technologies. Building a durable and resilient partnership with Europe requires cultivating strong ties with individual countries. In this context, PM Modi’s historic visit to Slovakia marks a significant step towards deepening India’s engagement with Central Europe and broadening the foundations of its European strategy.

 

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India’s Myanmar Calculus: A Strategy Guided by Security Imperatives

 Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing’s five-day visit to India comes at a time when India has determinedly prioritised border security. Last fortnight, Home Minister Amit Shah announced the ‘Smart Border Project’ to make frontiers impenetrable and ordered the demolition of illegal structures within 15 km of the international borders. The BJP Bengal government has put in place the “detect-deport-delete” initiative to curtail the entry of undocumented migrants. Besides security threats, borders have become floodgates for illegal infiltration.

Simmering tensions between the Buddhist and Rohingya Muslims since the 1970s have led to waves of Rohingya infiltration into India, which became more pronounced and severe after the Myanmar junta’s systematic persecution in 2016. The military coup that toppled the elected government in February 2021 displaced 3 million Myanmarese, triggering an endless wave of illegal migration of various ethnicities into India. The rapid crossover through the porous Indo-Myanmar border of 1,643km into adjoining Indian states -Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram has posed a pernicious security situation for India.

The conflagration of the Manipur Crisis in 2023 is a case in point. Recovery of a huge cache of arms and ammunition, drugs and the recent arrest of Ukrainian and American mercenaries in Mizoram along the Myanmar border have unravelled the impact of an unstable Myanmar on India.

In Myanmar, protesting the 2021 military takeover, opposition forces, pro-democracy groups and oppressed ethnic groups together formed the National Unity Government (NUG), the parallel civilian administration and its armed unit, People’s Defence Forces (PDF), carried out the resistance movement against the junta. Allying with the Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs), NUG and PDF are working towards establishing a federal government.

As per the latest reports, these resistance forces are exerting control over 42% of the Myanmar land holding, while the junta-backed government of Myanmar controls mere 21% of the territory, and the remaining land mass remains fiercely contested.

Post-military coup, Myanmar faced boycott, amid growing threats of international sanctions and regional pressure, the junta revoked the emergency order on July 31^st 2025. Citing the 2008 Constitution, wherein elections must be held within six months of the suspension of the emergency, the junta scheduled elections for December 2025 and January 2026. The measure was rather cosmetic. It is an attempt to obtain international legitimacy with no serious intent to facilitate a democratic transition.

The Tatmadaw (Mynmar military) long used election as a tool to project a façade of normalcy while consolidating internal control. With bans on several political parties-  including the National League for Democracy (NLD) and the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD)- along with detention of political opponents and imposition of emergency across Kachin, Karenni, Karen, Rakhine, Shan, and Chin states, as well as the Sagaing, Mandalay, and Magwe regions, the electoral process amounted little more than a sham exercise. Predictably, the junta-aligned Union Development and Solidarity Party won the elections. The parliament elected General Min Aung Hlaing as the President in April.

The managed election was an attempt to gain international legitimacy. The US, the UK and ASEAN countries openly rejected the election outcome as the process lacked credibility. India reiterated the importance of free and fair elections and adopted a wait-and-watch policy. For a regime struggling to secure international legitimacy, President Hlaing’s first foreign visit to India marks a significant diplomatic gain.

While the pro-democracy camp in Myanmar expressed disappointment over hosting the junta leadership, India has been absolutely clear about its policy. Pushing back against the contrarian opinion, Foreign Minister Vikram Mistri stated, “We have always proceeded on the principle that sustained dialogue is what is important, and what is an imperative for India as a neighbour. And the answer is clearly not disengagement”. He countered, adding, “History has shown that disengagement doesn't give us any results that are better than engagement, and it certainly doesn't produce democratic change if that is what we are interested in. On the other hand, disengagement only produces a vacuum that others go on to fill, then to our detriment. And those others have no interest in democracy, I can assure you about that”.

Myanmar has descended into a fractured geographical and political entity and India’s stakes in its stability remain profound. For decades, secessionist groups from India’s Northeast have found safe sanctuaries across the border. Myanmar has been an indisputable epicentre of the (narcotic) Golden Triangle. The ongoing crisis has intensified this dynamic, with drug cartel operations spilling into India’s Northeast and transforming it into one of the most perilously sensitive frontiers—where insurgency and trafficking converge to threaten national security.

Beyond the security imperative for India, the marked influx of undocumented migrants is altering the demography of the North-Eastern border states. Now, a latest cross-border challenge has emerged- scam centres. Myanmar has become the hotspot of sophisticated e-scamming. Indians have been tricked, and in some cases, forcefully kidnapped to work in these scam centres. These scam centres are no longer isolated criminal enterprises, but advanced offshoots of a transnational global criminal network operating from Myanmar.  These have targeted even Chinese and Thai citizens.

In the recent past, India has repatriated over 2200 Indians working under inhuman conditions in these scam centres. India is working with the junta to rescue trapped Indians. China extended tacit support to the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Brotherhood Alliance and Karen Border Guard Force to dismantle these scam centres to rescue its citizens. The collapse of the central governance has turned certain pockets of Myanmar into grey zone areas and safe havens for synthetic drug manufacturing and human trafficking. India closely aligns with the junta on the crackdown on these criminal networks to restore border stability.

Strategically, Myanmar lies at the intersection of India’s Neighbourhood policy, Act East Policy, Indo-Pacific Framework and Mutual and Holistic Advancement for Security and Growth Across Regions (MAHASAGAR), and holds immense significance.  Bordering both India and China, Myanmar is an important theatre of regional competition. Political tremors in the country have implications for both countries.

Myanmar is India’s gateway to Southeast Asia. India’s two major connectivity projects- the Kaladan multi-modal Transit Transport Project and the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway, launched several years ago, are now stalled due to the precarious security situation in the country. India needs the junta’s help for their swift completion.

Rare earth minerals represent another area of strategic interest. Myanmar has huge reserves of rare earth elements, which are indispensable for electric vehicles, wind turbines, semiconductors, permanent magnets and defence systems. Although the recent joint statement has no mention of rare earths, India is eager to secure access. China engaged with both the military junta and the ethic armed groups to gain preferential access, with Myanmar supplying nearly half of China’s rare-earth exports.

Kachin region, bordering China, is a global hotspot for heavy rare earths like dysprosium and terbium. China has monopolised these minerals and imposed a ban on their exports. Seeking alternative sources, India reached out to the Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO) which controls the region. Beyond Kachin, areas like Shan State, Sagaing Region, Kayah State and the Mogok geological belt hold rich deposits of lithium and other critical minerals. India is exploring avenues of cooperation with the junta to tap into these reserves.

Myanmar President’s visit to India, his first official international trip, has garnered a lot of chatter among strategic circles. Originally scheduled to attend the International Big Cat Alliance (IBCA) summit, deferred now, Hlaing made his first touchdown at Bodhgaya, underscoring the strong cultural and religious connection between the countries. Referred to as Brahma Desha, India has deep civilisational ties with Myanmar. In New Delhi, leaders of both countries reviewed the bilateral ties and reaffirmed to strengthen cooperation in trade, defence and security, border management and cultural exchanges. Hlaing’s visit to the NTPC Energy Technology Research Alliance (NETRA) and Mumbai highlighted his focus on technology, energy and infrastructure cooperation.

China, India and ASEAN are the three major partners of Myanmar. India is Myanmar’s 11^th largest investor. Bilateral trade stands at over $2 billion in favour of Myanmar. Accompanied by a huge business delegation, economic cooperation took front seat. Countries have agreed to enhance the Rupee-Kyat trade settlement mechanism, operationalised in 2024.

Addressing the core aspect of security and border stability, Hlaing assured that Myanmar’s territory will not be used for activities threatening India’s security. PM Modi extended India’s firm support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Myanmar and underscored the need for the restoration of the peace process through a dialogue with all the stakeholders for a united Myanmar.

Wedged between India and China, Myanmar is compelled to maintain cordial relations with both driven by regional connectivity needs and economic dependence, respectively. China, eyeing access to the Indian Ocean through Myanmar, cultivated ties with the military junta and rebel groups, leveraging deep engagement for strategic advantage. In contrast, India’s inconsistent cycles of engagement and disengagement have failed to lend any strategic depth to this relationship, leaving New Delhi at a disadvantage in the regional power play.

In an era of turbulence and power contestation, the strategic calculus of engagement pivots on the imperatives of geopolitical security. Guided by both strategic and economic considerations, India has extended a red carpet to Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing, seeking to mitigate the fallout of Myanmar’s political volatility and safeguard its regional interests.

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Trump’s China Impasse Brings Rubio to India

During his four-day India trip, from May 23-26, US Secretary, Marc Rubio will visit Kolkata, Agra, Jaipur and New Delhi. Ahead of the trip, he described India as a ‘great partner’ and announced that the US is willing to supply as much oil as India wishes to buy. He also added that Venezuela’s oil is also up for grabs. This offer comes in the way of Venezuelan acting President Delcy Rodrigues scheduled visit to India the following week. Rubio replayed America’s “Operation Sindoor” style playbook by disclosing the Venezuelan leader’s visit to India even before both sides could officially confirm, stirring a political row in New Delhi.

Rubio will directly land in Kolkata. The US Consulate General is the United States’ second-oldest consulate. The last US Secretary to visit the Kolkata Consulate was Hillary Clinton in 2012. The BJP government has come to power in Bengal, defeating the TMC, which ruled for 15 years. Coincidentally, Rubio’s stopovers in Indian cities are all under the BJP-ruled governments. US South Asia envoy Sergei Gor recently attended Himanshu Biswa Sarma’s swearing-in ceremony. On May 21^st, responding to Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis’s tweet, he hinted at a big India-US collaboration in the nuclear sector.

Rubio’s choice of Kolkata touchdown and his visit to the Missionaries of Charity with a dubious record of child trafficking is viewed with disapproval. Read together, with US Congressman Chris Smith’s appeal to the US Secretary ahead of his visit to raise concerns over India’s proposed amendments to the Foreign Contribution Regulation Act (FCRA), Rubio’s visit is viewed with deep scepticism. FCRA is the umbilical cord connecting the Western churches to the active evangelical ecosystem in India. Rubio’s closed-door prayer at Mother Theresa’s residence strengthened conjectures of the organisation’s close links with the US administration.

Ahead of Rubio’s visit, the US approved a $428 million defence support package for India, which includes military support for Apache attack helicopters and M777A2 ultra-light howitzers. The package would include repairs, field support, spare parts, maintenance systems and advanced training. The US administration tried to showcase this defence package as a defence cooperation agreement. Implicitly, the timing suggests that Trump’s Chinese outreach has hit a dead end. Hence, immediately after Trump’s Beijing visit, the US State Department cleared India’s long-pending defence package to begin a conversation on the Indo-Pacific strategy.

 India is getting to terms with the US administration’s blow hot and blow cold approach. New Delhi now believes that the onus of course correction is on the United States. It is quite evident from the absence of a notable official presence to receive Rubio at Kolkata.

Rubio’s agenda will include defence cooperation, critical minerals, supply chain stability and maritime security. Rubio is scheduled to meet PM Modi on May 23^rd to lay the ground for a meeting with Trump on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in France. He will attend the Quad Foreign Ministers meeting at New Delhi on May 26^th. 

Quad 2.0, revived by Trump 1.0, is now hanging by a thread with trust deficit and uncertainty gnawing at its roots. Trump 1.0 went ballistic about China. But, Indo-Pacific security took a back seat with Trump's transactionalism and adversarial commentary against allies in his second term. The continuity of the Quad Leaders’ Summit stagnated in 2025. Quad now lacks focus. With no deliverables and the US’s self-imposed retreat from Indo-Pacific, the arrangement exists just in name. Mired in unpredictability and captive of Trump’s shifting postures and preoccupation with the Middle East, countries are reluctant to rely on the US partnership in the region. Also, Washington and Dhaka are getting ready to seal the Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA) (a logistics agreement similar to LEMOA) and the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) to access Bangladesh’s ports in the Bay of Bengal. The US presence will alter India’s primacy in its strategic backyard and heighten New Delhi’s suspicions of strategic encirclement. Until Washington commits to putting its weight and assures allies of its genuine interests in the Indo-Pacific, the Quad resurrected by Trump might wither away under his watch.

What makes Rubio’s visit more interesting is the date of announcement of his visit- May 20^th, just days after Trump’s three-day State visit to China. Trump’s touted big visit to China, the first by a US President in nine years, ended without having a Joint Statement or any concrete agreement. While Trump announced that China agreed to buy $17 billion of US agricultural products and that Beijing had placed an order for 200 Boeing Aircraft, the Chinese side is yet to confirm.

Shockingly, Trump even acknowledged Xi’s observations that the United States was a declining nation, sparking a public debate. He, however, course-corrected with a post on Truth Social. But the damage was already done.

Any respectable head of the country would strongly denounce such statements, especially on foreign soil, coming from a rival country’s President. Consumed by political animosity, Trump chose to gulp down such observations without any resistance. Trump’s validation of Xi’s statement as “100 % correct” is a massive moral victory for China. String of incidents with respect to Trump’s seating, US officials dumping Chinese gifts, and Hegesth stopped from entering the venue without a badge have only exposed China’s deep-seated mistrust and entrenched suspicion. Trump’s Beijing visit has firmly positioned China in the driver’s seat.

Trump’s guarded response- warning Taiwan ‘not to go independent’ and ‘9500 miles argument’ blunting the United States’ ambivalent policy bordered on kowtowing.  It was a huge letdown from 2017, when Trump stated, “We will maintain our strong ties with Taiwan in accordance with our 'One China' policy, including our commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act to provide for Taiwan's legitimate defence needs and deter coercion”. In December 2016, he received a congratulatory message from Taipei as President-elect. He even passed the Taiwan Travel Act in 2018, encouraging visits between the US and Taiwan.

Trump’s Nixonian act of Chinese reset is a telling lesson for India. Trump’s jarring pivot to Pakistan, positioning it as a lynchpin for its South Asian policy and beyond and sudden recalibration of ties with China is reminiscent of the 70s. Cultivating India’s adversaries- Pakistan and China, Trump has been utterly unsympathetic to India. Trump’s labelling of India as “hell hole”, “tariff king”, “declining economy” and “currency manipulator”, especially in his second term, has been distasteful.

American hypocrisy of imposing the highest tariffs on India for importing Russian oil but exempting China from the same, while referring to India as a strategic ally, cannot be papered over. The Trump administration’s overt hostility- scrapping of H1 B visas and asking Greencard holders to return to their native country has exposed the structural faultlines of the India-US relationship.

Over the decades, leaders from both countries steadily built the relationship anchored in strategic convergences and democratic values. But Trump’s double standards are widening divergences. Thus far, countries have managed the differences with diplomatic niceties. Trump’s coercive and blunt diplomacy blew up the cover. The veneer is off.

For the better, this moment offered New Delhi an opportunity to recalibrate and prioritise collaboration in strategic areas of convergence. Energy security, defence cooperation, critical minerals, emerging technologies, and supply chain resilience stand out as vital sectors for India-US cooperation.

The old-world order has faded. A new multipolar world is reshaping. India is reorienting its partnership with the US while safeguarding strategic autonomy and preserving an independent foreign policy. Washington must recognise that a civilisational state like India with an immutable strategic consciousness will not bend under pressure or play a second fiddle. Instead, it will thoughtfully reconfigure its diplomatic calculus, placing national interests at the forefront.

 

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The Strategic Logic of India’s Norway Outreach

 PM Modi’s arrival in Oslo marks the first visit by an Indian Prime Minister to Norway in 43 years.  Received by Prime Minister Jonas Store at the airport, a rousing welcome awaited PM Modi from the Indian Diaspora – Saath Saath, a confluence of Indian and Western Music and Rhythms of India, a vibrant medley of Indian dance traditions.

With an ambitious target of becoming a $7 trillion economy by 2030- the third largest global economy, India is steadily diversifying both its export markets and sources of capital inflows. However, prolonged geopolitical conflicts and their disruption to secure trade and supply chains have intensified India’s challenge of sustaining steady growth. For a rapidly expanding economy like India, with an insatiable demand for resources, an uninterrupted and reliable flow of inputs is indispensable. Beyond resources, India must harness advanced technologies to stay ahead of the curve.  

Nordic countries hold a distinct edge in niche technologies. India’s evolving partnership with Norway is thus vital for its grand vision- one that seeks to make India future-ready and enable its rise as a global leader. Knowledge and technology are the two important pillars of India-Norway ties.

The futuristic development of India essentially has four important aspects- Infrastructure development & urban planning; emerging technologies &AI; green transition and space & deep-sea exploration. To manifest this objective, India signed a Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement (TEPA) with the technologically advanced European Free Trade Association (EFTA) comprising Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein in 2024, which became operational from Oct 1, 2025.

TEPA is about talent, technology and mutual trust. Structured to generate FDI into Indian markets, the deal pledged $100 billion investment over 15 years. The first tranche of $50 billion will be spread across 10 years, and the remaining $50 billion in the next five years. The agreement is expected to generate 10 lakh jobs in 15 years.

Building on TEPA’s momentum, India and Norway elevated their ties to a Green Strategic Partnership.  Reflecting their shared resolve to combat climate change, the partnership will advance an inclusive green transition, blue economy, green shipping and ports. Denmark was the first country with which India signed a Green Strategic Partnership, and now Norway joins the select club.

At the heart of the partnership lies the quest for sustainability. For developing countries, sustainability is the ultimate nirvana- balancing economic growth, poverty eradication and environmental conservation, all at the same time. With limited resources at disposal, sustainable practices are not only desirable but essential to achieving both economic progress and human development. In this context, the adoption of advanced technologies becomes extremely crucial to climb the economic trajectory. An important pillar of sustainability is the Green Economy.

The Green Economy has become Europe’s defining strategy. With an FTA with the EU in place, India is accelerating its transition to mitigate the impact of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) of the EU. To meet the green energy compliances of Europe, India is also rapidly transforming its core industries- overhauling its manufacturing, energy and regulatory frameworks to align with sustainability practices.

Aligning with these objectives, countries identified three core areas of collaboration- circular economy (resonated with India’s Mission LiFE), energy security and investments in renewable energy. Expanding the ambit of cooperation in critical minerals, emerging technologies, AI and low-emission solutions such as carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) is also on the agenda.

India is now emerging as a global hub for Maintenance, Repair, Overhaul (MRO), green shipping and maritime services. Ten per cent of Norway’s ships are now built in India. Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers(GRSE) signed an MoU with Norway’s Kongsberg Maritime in June 2025 to co-design India’s first indigenous Polar Research Vessel.

India and Norway are maritime nations, and their Indo-Pacific and Arctic Council policies are closely aligned. Norway has joined India’s Indo-Pacific Ocean Initiative (IPOI). Norway supported India’s Arctic Research Station, Himadri at Svalbard. Operational since 2008, Himadri has hosted over 400 scientists while winter deployments commenced in 2023. The IndARC, an underwater observatory in Kongsfjorden, positioned at 192 metres, active since 2014, has been studying the impact of Arctic climate changes on Indian monsoons. ISRO’s satellite tracking and data reception antennas at Svalbard are operational from 2026. They are crucial for Earth Orbit Missions and polar monitoring.  

The rapid melting of Arctic glaciers is reshaping the trade routes and geopolitical dynamics. While this opens new avenues for cooperation- such as logistics expansion, polar research through the Arctic Council- the formalisation of Arctic shipping by Russia and China is set to expand their footprint.  The opening of the Northern Shipping Route (NSR),which reduces travel time by 10 -14 days, raises strategic challenges. For Nordic countries, India’s role becomes vital in balancing Russia’s influence.

Strengthening technological cooperation, countries signed MoUs for joint exploration of outer space, health, and a digital development partnership. Additionally, India has signed MoUs with various Norwegian businesses for consultancy services in tunnel construction, ocean energy, offshore wind energy, geomodelling and innovation.

The Char Dham Railway project is powered by Norwegian tunnelling technology. The key partners in the project are Norwegian Geotechnical Institute, which specialises in managing risks related to landslides and flash floods; Norwegian Consulting Experts for tunnelling and Introsoft solutions for data analysis for tunnel structural integrity.

After the Galwan standoff, China restricted exports of tunnel boring machines to India. New Delhi has planned several highways and tunnels along the strategically important border areas. Centre has also acquired 120 acres of land in the Chicken’s neck corridor to construct underground railways at a depth of 25-40 metres. Norwegian expertise can be hugely beneficial for India in developing border infrastructure.

Other than cooperation in specialised technologies, Norway has been a valued partner for India in food, fuel and fertiliser security.  Norway’s Orkla (parent company of MTR and Eastern Condiments, Kerala) has major investments in the food sector, Equinor supplies LPG and LNG to India, and Yara International provides green ammonia.

The centrepiece of the partnership is Trilateral development cooperation in third countries, especially the Global South nations. Countries plan to support developmental initiatives through India’s digital public infrastructure projects. As of now, India majorly participates in this arrangement with the US, the UK, France, the UAE, Japan and the EU. With this, Norway has positioned itself as an important partner for India.

Norway is a relatively small trading partner of India. The bilateral trade of goods is $1.05 billion, and services account for $ 1 billion. With a cumulative investment of $990 million (FDI rank 33^rd), over 160 Norwegian companies operate in India. However, the Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) of the Norwegian Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG) has consistently risen in the past decade (roughly $30 billion) to become the 7^th largest investor in 2025.

Bilateral trade is definitely not of specific interest to India. Norway has one of the largest sovereign wealth funds worth $2 trillion, which prioritises investments in clean energy. Having set a target of 500 GW of clean energy and 5 million tonnes of green hydrogen by 2030, India is keen to unlock the sovereign wealth fund for clean energy investments.

Addressing the delegates at the India-Norway Business and Research Summit, PM Modi briefed about the next-generation reforms -labour, tax and governance in India to improve ease of doing business and encouraged companies to invest in India. India’s large markets, massive talent pool for innovation, and geopolitical alignment make it a valuable partner for Nordic countries keen on scaling up green technologies and unlocking investments. By conferring the highest civilian award on PM Modi, the Norwegian government has honoured his efforts to strengthen this win-win partnership.

During his two-day visit, PM Modi participated in the third India-Nordic summit hosted by PM Stokes. The Nordics are a group of five small countries. Over 700 Nordic companies operate in India, and each of the Nordic countries has sector-specific strengths – Norway in energy transition, maritime & shipping; Sweden in defence, digital tech and fintech innovation, Denmark in renewable energy, robotics, biotech; Finland in gaming, telecommunication and Iceland in geothermal energy. The Nordic zone is the global powerhouse for innovation.

In the last decade, Nordic countries' investment in India increased by 200%. PM Modi is intensifying engagement with the Nordic countries to equip our industrial ecosystem with emerging and critical technologies.

PM Modi’s visit to Norway was successful in terms of outcomes. However, it became the subject of critical commentary due to hitjob of journalist from an obscure Norwegian media agency. Her open rebuke of India’s Freedom of Press ranking and heckling has exposed the colonial kit in action. Ahead of PM Modi’s arrival in Oslo, a Norwegian publication carried out a cartoon depicting him as a snake charmer. Titled- ‘A sneaky and slightly annoying man’, reeking of European imagery- uncivilised, primitive and exotic, the racial animus was explicitly evident.

Notorious for its moral posturing, Norway, punches above its weight and exerts ‘outsized’ influence in international discourse. It frequently champions democracy, freedom of speech and human rights while sitting in moral judgement of other nations despite its own ignominious record. Indigenous Sami communities have suffered systemic discrimination and human rights violations at home. Under the guise of promoting democracy, Norway has destabilised regimes in Libya, Ethiopia, Syria and Colombia. Financially powering the vast NGO networks in South Asia through the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (Norad) and its embassies orchestrated attempts to undermine the regional sovereignty. Norwegian envoy’s secret meeting with Prashant Kishore ahead of Bihar election deepened scepticism about its political agenda. India has often resented Norway’s statements on domestic issues and asserted

For all its grandstanding, Norway chose to normalise relations with China after Beijing banned salmon imports after the Norwegian Nobel Peace Committee awarded the Nobel prize to Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo in 2010. To stabilise ties, the Norwegian Royal Couple on their China visit in 2018 feigned ignorance about the internment of 1.5 million Uighurs. Norwegian activism and its interventionist foreign policy have been the source of doctrinal dissonance in India-Norway ties.

Prolonged geopolitical conflicts, strained trans‑Atlantic ties, and great‑power rivalries are driving nations toward interest‑based partnerships. To hedge against strategic dependence, European countries are seeking flexible, multipolar alignments. Striking a balance between ideological disagreements and economic goals, despite Norway’s scandalous activism, PM Modi is reaching out to Nordic countries to strengthen India’s energy security and environmental resilience.  Leveraging their expertise in green technology and niche innovations, India intends to accelerate its transition toward sustainability while continuing to assert its sovereignty and pluralism.

 

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Powering Energy Resilience, India–UAE Partnership Redefines Strategic Horizons

 PM Modi made his first stop at Abu Dhabi in his five-nation visit on Friday. Symbolising close ties, F-16 jets escorted Air India One upon entering the UAE’s airspace. PM Modi was warmly received by President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan at the tarmac and extended a ceremonial welcome. PM Modi’s eighth visit to the UAE in twelve years, coming at the thick of the ongoing West Asia conflict, signals solidarity and strong friendship with the UAE.

PM Modi is the first foreign leader to visit the UAE since the conflict began. The UAE faced over 2800 drone and missile attacks, more than any other country. PM Modi strongly condemned the attacks on the UAE and stated, “the manner in which the UAE has been targeted is not acceptable in any form”. The statement, coming at a time when New Delhi is hosting the BRICS Foreign Ministers meeting attended by the Iranian Minister, is doubly significant. He also reiterated the need for unimpeded transit passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Both leaders called for the cessation of attacks on shipping and on mariners.

Prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz and aerial attacks on the oil infrastructure have caused trade disruptions. The tremors of the conflict eventually changed the political contours of the region, with the rise of the Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan axis to coordinate diplomatic response.  

In a bold move to prioritise national interests, the UAE exited OPEC effective from May 1st. With the restrictive quotas off the table, the post-OPEC scenario has opened new avenues for partnerships. The UAE is set to expand production, infrastructure investment and diversification of energy sources. To bypass the Strait of Hormuz, the UAE is fast-tracking the West-East pipeline to double its export capacity by 2027. The existing Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, built in 2012, currently carries 1.5-1.8 million barrels per day.

Currently, the UAE is India’s fourth-largest supplier of crude oil and largest supplier of LPG. It accounts for 11 per cent of India’s crude and 40 per cent of LPG. India is also the UAE’s largest buyer of LNG, totalling 4.5 metric tonnes per annum. The UAE is the first and only country to participate in India’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve programme. In 2018, Abu Dhabi’s National Oil Company (ADNOC) leased the underground cavern of Mangaluru SPR to store 5 million barrels of crude, which is roughly one day’s worth of consumption.

PM Modi’s short visit of three hours, coming at a time when the world is bracing for shipping disruptions, supply chain vulnerabilities and regional conflicts, has been highly substantial.  With the international rule-based order reduced to mere political rhetoric, global conflicts have shifted from being exceptions to becoming the norm. The global commons are becoming increasingly destabilised, disrupting the maritime routes and energy choke points.

The militarisation of the Strait of Hormuz and its subsequent closure have triggered a cascading effect. Forced rerouting has increased transport charges.  India imports more than 85% of its energy sources, making it vulnerable to the strategic weaponisation of maritime chokepoints by nations. Energy cooperation has been the primary pillar of the India-UAE partnership.

Moving away from the buyer-seller relationship, in a landmark arrangement, ADNOC has announced to store 30 million barrels of crude in facilities at Visakhapatnam and Odisha’s Chandikol. The UAE will retain the ownership, and India will be allowed to use it during emergencies. Reciprocally, storage facilities at Port Fujairah will now be part of India’s strategic petroleum reserve.

 The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has heightened India’s vulnerability, particularly in its LPG and LNG supplies. To minimise risk and mitigate shortages, India is exploring long-term purchase and storage of LPG and LNG.

President MBZ received PM Modi, saying, “welcome to your second home”, reflecting an exceptional trust and confidence. Since PM Modi’s first visit to the UAE in 2015, leaders have personally led the relationship by investing diplomatic capital, time and resources to give the relationship a strategic direction and institutional depth. In 2017, leaders elevated the relationship to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, and with the signing of the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) in 2022, bilateral trade reached a new milestone, surpassing $100 billion. The UAE is now India’s seventh-largest investor. What began as reliable economic partnerships is now overshadowed by looming war clouds, pushing nations to prioritise security.

The Iran War has deepened the schisms among the Gulf countries, underscored by the UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC. It has shattered the guarantee of Washington’s security commitment for hosting its military facilities and as a vital deterrent against regional adversaries. Taking a cue from Saudi Arabia’s SMDA, with Pakistan symbolic of the unreliability of the US architectural framework for Gulf countries, President MBZ, on his short visit to New Delhi in January, signed a Letter of Intent (LoI) on a strategic defence partnership.  Iran’s full-blown assault on Gulf Countries, especially on the UAE, has been the force behind the conclusion of a framework for a strategic defence partnership with India. This marks the beginning of a new strategic security alignment with India.

Besides defence industrial collaboration, countries will now jointly work on cyber defence, intelligence sharing, interoperability, maritime security and special operations, including training and exercises. Other than security, Abu Dhabi now finds a greater convergence with India on several strategic aspects, including the core objectives of the “We the UAE 2031” vision. The broad pillars of the vision are economic stability, technological modernisation, strategic diversification and maritime security. India’s vibrant markets, opportunities for growth and its role as the regional security provider make it an indispensable partner for the UAE’s economic diversification pursuits.

India’s non-interventionalist approach, expanding economy, technological ecosystem and focus on manufacturing make it a natural partner for the UAE. To shore up marine logistics and ship-repairing infrastructure, countries will now cooperate to set up a ship-repair cluster at Vadinar with an underlying framework to train and employ a skilled maritime workforce.

In a boost to technological modernisation, countries agreed to collaborate to set up an 8 Exaflop Super Computing Cluster as part of the AI Mission India. Additionally, the UAE pledged $5 billion investment in the infrastructure and banking sector.

Steadily exploring newer alignments, the UAE has ratcheted up cooperation with Israel after the 2020 Abraham Accords. Exploring new partnerships, the UAE has become an active part of the I2U2 and aligned its maritime ambitions with the IMEC. Israel is another vital partner of IMEC. Amid the unrelenting Iranian attacks, the UAE has deployed Israeli surveillance and defence systems to protect its strategic assets from Iranian strikes. At a time when a new Middle East Quad is shaping up, PM Modi’s visit to the UAE has shifted attention to the trifecta (India-Israel-UAE) on the horizon.

Prolonged global conflicts have ushered the world into an era of volatility and fragmentation. Seeking stability, nations are recalibrating alliances and strategic partners to bolster economic resilience and energy security. Amid these uncertainties, India’s relationship with the UAE has emerged as a promising anchor. Increasingly, nations are now favouring strategic flexibility over rigid geopolitical blocs. As India and the UAE deepen their alignment, they are restructuring the geopolitical order towards a multipolar world.

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