President Putin’s visit to India for the 23rd annual summit, Dec 4-5, after a four-year gap, has expectedly drawn global attention. West’s attempts to isolate Putin faced a setback after PM Modi reneged on the diplomatic protocol and received him on the tarmac. Affirming the longstanding friendship, both leaders rode back together to PM Modi’s residence for a private dinner and candid exchange of views on bilateral, regional and global issues.
India’s friendship
with Russia dates back to the nearly eight decades old diplomatic ties with the
Soviet Union. Russia upheld the mantle of friendship after the collapse of the
Soviet Union. Consolidating the ties, countries elevated their relationship to
“Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership’ in 2010 and institutionalised it
through annual summits, a unique arrangement, an exclusive preserve for trusted
friends.
Styled on the Soviet
Union’s Communist approach, the India-Russia bilateral cooperation is guided by
the framework of the India-Russia Intergovernmental Commission (IRIGC),
comprising two divisions- IRIGC-TEC (Trade, Economic, Scientific, Technological
and Cultural Cooperation) and IRIGC-M&MTC (Military & Military
Technical Cooperation). By and large, the partnership was largely steered by an
uncharacteristically large number of intergovernmental implementation agencies
and working groups. Despite longstanding relations, the partnership was largely
government-driven with a very limited business-to-business engagement.
Moscow’s worldview of
India, dominated and shaped by the Soviet era, has largely limited its
cooperation to the core areas of yesteryears like defence and nuclear energy.
Extensively engaging with the European countries and China for energy exports
and consumer goods till 2022, Russia’s economic engagement was largely Eurocentric.
Post-Crimean annexation and sanctions, Russia made a strategic pivot to China,
and this consistently deepened after the West’s punitive actions. Russia’s
exclusion from SWIFT payment and secondary sanctions have further accelerated
Russia’s pivot to the East, with China eventually emerging as Russia’s largest
trade partner.
Spanning two
continents-Europe and Asia—Russia has traditionally leaned towards Europe. In
its efforts to align and modernise, Russian institutions are rooted in European
traditions. Although a large part of Russia is geographically in Asia, Russia
sought comfort in its European identity. Indeed, after the Cold War until the
early 2000s, Moscow made repeated attempts to join NATO. However, all its
proposals were rejected. Geographically, a Eurasian power, Russia prioritised
European ties over Asian influences.
The Ukraine conflict of
2022 has thus been a turning point for Russia's geopolitics. Isolated,
sanctioned and ostracised from global systems, Russia was forced to recalibrate
its policy. It is no secret that Mackinder’s Heartland theory of global
dominance has been at the root of the West’s relentless efforts to draw Ukraine
into its ambit. With access to Black Sea that connects West Asia to Europe and
Russia, Ukraine is geographically pivotal. With vast mineral resources and a
strategic position, any power controlling this heartland can project dominance
to the vastly interconnected world. West’s control of Ukraine is Russia’s
strategic vulnerability. To retain dominance over Eurasia, the West has
invested heavily in Ukraine.
Though Halford John
Mackinder’s theory is still debated, through impressive territorial gains in
Ukraine, Russia is inching closer to gaining access to the Black Sea and the
huge network of pipelines running through the region. Along with steady gains
in Eurasia, reinventing its Asian identity, Russia is now geopolitically
aligning with major Asian countries and giants. Pursuing economic
diversification, Moscow has intensified trade ties with Asia and African
countries. Eurasia holds the key to global dominance, and implicitly so,
Russia’s strategic realignment has restructured the contemporary geopolitical
landscape.
Putin’s visit to
India came a day after he “threatened Europe with a war, if it wants one”. Catalysed
by European intransigence to the Ukrainian peace plan and castigated for
importing Russian energy, Moscow and New Delhi have found themselves in a rare
strategic congruity where deepening ties could be a mutually win-win. Shedding the
legacy baggage of the Soviet era, Russia is now seeking economic opportunities
in India’s expanding markets. As the fourth-largest economy with immense
development potential, India offers a platform for reimagining bilateral
relations.
Since the Ukraine
conflict, the West has targeted India for not taking sides, condemning Russia
and sourcing oil imports from Moscow. Earlier in August, Trump slapped an
additional 25% tariff on India for importing Russian imports in addition to the
baseline reciprocal 25% taking the overall tariffs to 50% as a punishment. Resisting
economic pressure, India kept its ties with Russia intact. Lately, Washington
has pursued hard bargains with New Delhi by linking trade negotiations to the
acquisition of F-35 fighter jets and pressing for unfettered market access to
US agricultural and dairy products in India. By withholding access to critical
source codes and weapons integration systems, Washington seeks to leverage defence
technology to pin down India into strategic dependence.
Rebuffing the offer
and refusing to cave in, India explicitly expressed its readiness to expand the
gamut of cooperation with Russia. Instructively, acknowledging India’s rising
international stature, in a bid to economically diversify and derisk from China,
during the Summit meeting, PM Modi and President Putin unveiled, “Time Tested,
Progressive Partnership anchored in trust and mutual respect for 2030”. Setting
an ambitious target of $100 billion bilateral target, countries broadened the
partnership to balance the skewed trade and bolstered people-to-people
cooperation, a quintessential foundation to rejuvenate cultural, political and
economic connections between the countries.
India-Russia
partnership was anchored in defence cooperation, which included co-production,
co-development and technology transfer. Aligning these aspects with “Make in
India” countries have now agreed to manufacture the spares for Russian defence
procurements in India. Apart from fast-tracking negotiations on FTA with the
Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), leaders have addressed the India-Russia Business
Forum to promote private investments, cooperation in startups and unveiled
Programme 2030 to foster cooperation in AI, innovation, critical and emerging
technologies. With a fundamental reorientation of economic conversations,
leaders discussed the use of national currencies for bilateral trade and
interoperability of financial systems.
The panoply of
agreements and announcements on Putin’s State visit is a testament to an
ambitious vision plan for India-Russia's longstanding partnership. Notable MoUs
signed included - Migration and Mobility agreement (on temporary labour
activity & combating irregular migration), health care, medical education
and science, food safety compliances, cooperation in shipping, ports, joint
mineral exploration, border postal cooperation, scientific and academic
collaboration, training students and professionals for academic activity,
training specialists for ships operating in Polar waters and media cooperation.
Countries also signed an MoU on a joint venture in Urea manufacturing in Russia.
India has announced a 30-day e-tourist visa on a
gratis basis to Russian nationals on a reciprocal basis.
With no mention of high-profile defence deals in the
Joint Statement, critics labelled Putin’s visit as high on theatrics and poor
on substance. However, this underlines a strategic shift in military
partnership, now reorienting toward joint research and development,
co-development, and co-production of advanced defence technologies. Russia's
Su-57 offer is on the table, with Moscow proposing to transfer technology, 60%
licensed local production and integration with indigenous sensors and missiles
and upgradation of the Su-30 MKI fleet. Besides promising discounted oil
supply, countries are now focused on strengthening infrastructure connecting
the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), the
Chennai–Vladivostok (Eastern Maritime) Corridor, and the Northern Sea Route.
Ahead of Putin’s visit, the Duma has ratified the
Reciprocal Exchange of Logistics Support (RELOS) pact with India and coinciding
with Putin’s visit, Rosatom has announced the delivery of the first batch of
nuclear fuel for the third reactor at the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant.
Aligning with India’s goal of 100 GW nuclear power by 2047, Russia offered to
build a second nuclear plant and pledged small modular reactors.
For decades, independent India failed to leverage its
strategic location and its significant maritime power. Asserting its maritime
power, India signed foundational logistics agreements with the US. India has
similar pacts with Japan, Singapore, France, Australia and South Korea. With
the formalisation of RELOS, India can counterbalance the Western defence
integration and dilute Russia’s dependence on China. RELOS serves the twin
purposes of opening doors to the warm water ports for Russia and grants the
Indian Navy access to the Russian Arctic (Murmansk) and Far East ports
(Vladivostok).
While India can become a stakeholder in the emerging
Arctic trade routes, mineral explorations and counter the rising Chinese
footprint in the Polar, Russian access to the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) will
alter the Indo-Pacific balance. RELOS echoes with India's goal of setting a
permanent manned mission in the Arctic region.
Besides enhancing the institutional interoperability
through joint manoeuvres and mutual use of the military facilities for refuelling,
supplies and maintenance, it will provide berthing facilities for troops,
warships and aircraft. The pact allows the stationing of five warships, 10
aircraft and 3000 troops in the territory of the partner country. The logistics
agreements with the US and Russia epitomise India's ‘strategic autonomy’ and
its strategic capitalisation of geographical location.
Steadily bolstering defence, energy, military linkages,
and now repurposing the partnership with a long-term view on economic
engagement, India has broadened the expanse of cooperation with Russia. Diligently
exploring the economic opportunities, India and Russia are reshaping their
partnerships to avoid being coerced by both the US and China. Investments and
economic cooperation with India can help Russia break free from the Chinese
clasp. A deepening Russia partnership and a steady flow of discounted crude
lend economic stability and immunity from inflationary pressures for India. A
steady India-Russia defence upgrade through joint production, besides rattling
the adversaries, will help India assert its sovereignty over the weapons. India can no longer be pressurised to
surrender its freedom for advanced defence technologies.
The symbolism of the recently concluded India-Russia
summit is a political message to the West. Ramping up trade engagements, Indian
engineering, pharmaceuticals, chemicals and electronics are now entering
Russia. Leaders have laid a foundation for a “balanced, mutually beneficial,
sustainable and long-term partnership” amid the complex and uncertain
geopolitical situation. Instead of buckling under pressure, India has doubled
down on its ties with Russia.
Trump’s ruthless rundown of Indian interests amid its
trade concessions and conciliations to China, despite Beijing’s Russian energy
imports, hasn’t gone down well with India. Trump’s attempts to draw India into
its geo-strategic games- weaning it away from Russia while making overtures to
Pakistan are now falling apart.
India has always valued its relations with the US and
continues to do so. However, Washington’s blatant coercion, breaking through
the seams of the Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership, threatens to
dangerously damage the trust factor.
India can no longer be instructed to but negotiated with
to have a mutually beneficial trade agreement. Days after Putin’s visit, a US
trade delegation arrived in India for talks, and Quad officials met twice in a
week to hold talks on counter terrorism and humanitarian aid. However, being a
compulsive deal maker, Trump is attempting to arm-twist India with fresh
tariffs on Indian rice.
China weaponises rare earths while India is inexorably
wielding its strategic autonomy to secure food, fuel and fertiliser security.
Steering clear of alliances, navigating its own course through strategic
diversification and reviving old trusted relationships, India is emerging as a
responsible power. India is not a vassal state to be dictated to, but a leader
capable of charting through muddled waters towards the mission of Viksit Bharat
2047. Constantly drawing its force and energy from the centuries of resilience
as a civilisational state, India is uncompromisingly advancing its national
interests.
India seeks partnerships based on respect. Washington’s
imperialistic and hierarchical partnerships are accelerating a global
reconfiguration and promoting the emergence of a multipolar world order.
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