Canada’s swift foreign policy recalibration amid Trump’s incessant tariff and sovereignty threats hasn’t escaped global attention. In his scintillating remarks on the ongoing powershift and dwindling multilateralism, at the World Economic Forum (WEF), Jan 2026, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has outlined the role of Middle Powers like Canada to build a new order – “build a new order that encompasses our values, such as respect for human rights, sustainable development, solidarity, sovereignty and territorial integrity of the various states”. Earlier in Nov 2025, he elucidated Canada’s “Variable Geometry”- a concept in an opEd titled “The Americas in 2026” for The Economist. The concept implied pursuing “different coalitions for different issues based on common values and interests”.
Challenges
Assuming the charge
as Premier at a time when Trump repeatedly threatened Canada to turn it into
the 51st state, Carney resisted the bullying and adopted a ‘pragmatic’
approach. Trump’s rhetoric on trade and sovereignty had jolted Canadian
politics, which has been inherently libertarian. Ottawa’s left-leaning approach
towards free speech, facile interpretations of the Khalistan ideology, and
pandering to the minority vote bank had been at the heart of the diplomatic
breakdown with New Delhi. Justin Trudeau’s reckless snapping of diplomatic ties
with the largest democracy on “credible allegations” had been a travesty of
statecraft seeped in liberalism. The relationship barely hung by a thread after
countries expelled High Commissioners in October 2024 and reduced diplomatic
presence to a minimal level.
Silent
Stabilisation of Ties
In the wake of Trump’s
ad hoc policies and constant threats, Carney, elected into power in March 2025,
adopted a ‘pragmatic’ and ‘centrist’ foreign policy. Hosting the 51st G7 Summit, he
swiftly engaged with World leaders. Signalling a thaw, Carney extended an invitation
to Prime Minister Modi, an honour New Delhi coveted for over a decade. In June
2025, along the margins of the G7 Summit at Kananaskis, Alberta, leaders of
India and Canada held forward-looking discussions “to
take calibrated and constructive steps to restore stability in the relationship”.
By September, High
Commissioners of both countries returned. Rebuilding trust and expanding
cooperation, NSAs held the first round of talks. In October 2025, Canadian
Foreign Minister Anita Anand, on her visit, renewed the roadmap for bilateral
engagement. Injecting new momentum into the bilateral partnership, leaders met
along the sidelines of the Johannesburg G20 Summit in November 2025. They
reviewed the ties and launched negotiations for the Comprehensive Economic
Partnership Agreement (CEPA) to reach USD 50 billion by 2030. This engagement
at the highest levels revived Ministerial and Official-level mechanisms.
Subsequently, Foreign Office Consultations, security dialogues and
sector-specific working groups were back on track.
Critically, the second round of NSA’s meeting in Feb
2026, ahead of PM Carney’s scheduled State visit, streamlined issues of major
concern like law enforcement issues, extraditions, illegal drug flows,
immigration fraud, immigration enforcement, cybersecurity, transnational
criminal networks and set the stage for leadership talks. PM Carney arrived in
Mumbai on Feb 28 for a four-day bilateral visit. After extensive business
engagements and an investment push in Mumbai, the actual bilateral talks commenced
in Delhi on Mar 2. The visit at the invitation of PM Modi is PM Carney’s first
visit to India as the Prime Minister. The last Canadian bilateral visit to
India was in 2018.
The Pivot
In a generational shift, PM Carney, leveraging “the
Middle Power moment”, is expanding defence, security and economic ties with
countries in the Indo-Pacific region and Looking South. This steady shift is
evident in PM Carney accelerating defence cooperation with the Philippines,
Japan and South Korea. In November 2025, Canada signed the Status of Visiting
Forces agreement with the Philippines. In January 2026, delicately balancing
ties, Carney, on his Beijing visit, carved a “new strategic partnership” and inked
a preliminary trade agreement with China to ease tariffs. In the same month,
Canada sealed a defence collaboration Equipment and Technology Transfer
Agreement (ETTA) agreement with Japan. The two strategic rivals.
Expanding its Indo-Pacific strategy, Canada is finalising
an FTA with Indonesia, elevating its partnership with Vietnam and ASEAN and
seeking to increase military presence through Operation Horizon. As the
resident power of Indo-Pacific with fourth largest economy, Canada now
significantly understands the significance of building pragmatic ties with
India. For long, the India-Canada relations have been a victim of misreading of
contrasting narratives. However, under mounting Trumpian economic and
diplomatic pressure, Canada has embraced strategic diversification and
multi-alignment.
Ambitiously working to build the political trust, in the run-up
to PM Carney’s visit, Federal officials indicated that India is no longer
linked to violent criminal activities in Canada and moved to revoke the
citizenship of Tahawwur Rana, accused in 26/11 for alleged misrepresentation in
his citizenship application. By easing the tensions, Canada has set the stage
for pragmatic cooperation.
The Reset
Having established diplomatic relations for 79 years,
both countries structured a roadmap aligning with New Delhi’s Viksit Bharat and
Ottawa’s Build Canada Strong Agenda. Addressing the Canada-India Growth Forum,
PM Carney described his visit as “the beginning of a renewed Canada-India
partnership”. In an interaction, recognising India’s rising global
influence, PM Carney said, “I wouldn’t call India a ‘middle power’. I’m
happy for Canada to be called a middle power. But India’s trajectory and
ambition is totally different”. This strategic shift in the Canadian
approach is firmly mirrored in his intent to decisively take forward the
partnership from normalisation of ties to a structured expansion.
The diplomatic row over Nijjar has ruptured the
partnership. To rebuild the strategic trust, leaders have structured a vision
for the partnership anchored in the guiding principles of ‘Vasudaiva
Kutumbakam’ (One World One Family One Future), providing a framework for
political, economic, technological and strategic engagement.
Outcomes
The wide-ranging bilateral talks yielded several concrete
outcomes. Notable among them are signing of Terms of Reference (ToR) for CEPA. India is Canada’s seventh-largest goods and services
trading partner, with bilateral trade at USD 8.66 billion. Setting a target of USD
50 billion in bilateral trade by 2030, the countries plan to conclude the trade
agreement by the end of 2026.
Countries signed MoUs in Critical Minerals Cooperation,
Renewable Energy, Global Research, Cultural cooperation and declaration of
Intent to establish the Joint Pulse Protein Centre of Excellence at the National
Institute of Food Technology, Entrepreneurship (NIFTE) at Kundli. Canada
announced fully-funded internships for up to 300 eligible Indian students
annually for three years.
Nearly 24 MoUs/partnerships have been signed between
universities/institutions in areas such as Artificial Intelligence, healthcare,
agriculture, and innovation. The scale and diversity of the commercial
agreements signalled normalisation of ties.
Along the sidelines of the G20 Summit, Prime Ministers of
Australia, Canada and India launched the Australia-Canada-India Technology and
Innovation (ACITI) Partnership, leveraging the complementary strengths of
Australia’s critical minerals, Canada’s AI expertise and India’s digital talent
with an emphasis on green energy innovation, building resilient supply chains,
including for critical minerals. Taking it forward, all three countries held
meetings during the AI Impact Summit in New Delhi, and now the Sides have inked
an MoU on cooperation in Technology and Innovation.
Resetting ties, India and Canada reached a landmark
agreement for the sale of $1.9 billion of uranium (10,000 tonnes) to India for
its civil nuclear programme over 10 years. This will facilitate India’s clean
energy transition and help reach the goal of 100 GW nuclear capacity by 2047.
Canada is second largest producer of Uranium. One of the foundational pillars
of the India-Canada partnership has been nuclear collaboration on CANDU (Canada
Deuterium Uranium Technology) reactor design. Soon, India developed its own
Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors (PHWRs) based on Canadian technology. India’s
second nuclear reactor, CIRUS (Canada India Reactor Utility Service) and
Rajasthan Atomic Power Station were built with Canadian assistance. Nuclear
cooperation stalled post-1974 and 1998 tests. Sanctions were imposed on the
sale of Uranium. The US-India nuclear deal of 2008 restored trust. In 2015,
Canada agreed to sell Uranium. However, marred by misgivings and shifting
relations, nuclear cooperation took a hit.
Renewing Relationship
Advancing India-Canada strategic energy partnership, the countries
relaunched the Ministerial Energy Dialogue to finalise a joint plan of action
to promote collaboration in clean energy, conventional energy and renewable
energy. To broaden energy cooperation, Canada is joining the Global Biofuels
Alliance and the International Solar Alliance. Given the Gulf crisis and
concerns about the security of maritime trade routes, India is keen to source
energy supplies through alternative routes. For stable energy security, India
intends to buy LNG from Canada along with heavy oil. India is simultaneously
working towards concluding a long-term LPG supply agreement with Canada.
Countries are elevating the 30-year space cooperation
agreement between the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) and the
Canadian Space Agency (CSA), signed in 1996. India has supported Canada joining
the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) as a Dialogue Partner.
Countries are relaunching and elevating the existing
mechanisms, joint working groups to the ministerial level, to institutionalise
cooperation and strengthen the relationship. To structure student mobility, an
important domain of the bilateral ties, countries launched a new Canada-India
Joint Talent and Innovation Strategy. 400,000 Indian students study in Canada, twice
the number in the US and four times the number in the UK. Owing to Canada’s
stricter immigration norms amid housing crises, PM Modi welcomed reputed
Canadian Universities to set up their campuses in India. India has also
proposed twinning degree programmes.
Trump’s ‘America First Agenda’, has critically weakened
the institutionalised defence and security mechanisms. To align with NATO’s new
targets, Canada is increasing defence expenditure and plans to spend about $500
billion over the next decade. Diversifying defence partnerships, Canada is now
reviewing the F-35 acquisition, reversing the decision to purchase 88 of them. Carney
is diversifying defence partnerships with Japan, South Korea, the EU and
Indo-Pacific countries and identifying partners for defence collaboration. This
can open up ample opportunities for Indian defence companies for co-development
and coproduction. Given the convergence on Indo-Pacific, Canada, seeking to
expand military cooperation with India, is institutionalising the India-Canada
Defence Dialogue.
The post-World War II institutional architecture is on
the brink of collapse. New regional and global security arrangements are
shaping up. As a middle power, positioning the partnership toward long-term
expansion, Canada is seeking to widen cooperation. Committing to ironing out
the structural differences stemming from the misinterpretation of liberal
values, Canada is now valuing Indian partnership. PM Carney described the
partnerships in the famous words of Swami Vivekananda- “arise, awake, and
stop not till the goal is reached”.
Canada wants to work with India for its own reasons.
India is cognisant of its conciliatory approach and appreciative of PM Carney’s
attempt to anchor the relationship in “mutual respect, sovereignty, and
democratic values”.
@ Copyrights reserved.
No comments:
Post a Comment