Considered as ‘Living Buddha’, the 14th Dalai
Lama, has announced a succession plan on the eve of his 90th
birthday, ending speculations over reincarnation and disbanding of the
600-year-old religious institution of Tibetan Buddhism. Bestowing the exclusive
power to carry out the succession plan with the members of Gaden Phodrang
Trust, the Dalai Lama has rejected Chinese legal jurisdiction and authority. He
indicated that the next incarnation will be born in the ‘free world’ in regions
not under Chinese rule.
This has also put to rest decades of uncertainty about
whether the Dalai Lama would reincarnate or emanate. Earlier, the Dalai Lama
had signalled that he would choose not to reincarnate and be the last in the
line of this tradition. He also indicated that he might pass on the mantle to
someone of his choosing during his lifetime and not reincarnate. Besides
profound spiritual significance, the announcement has been at the heart of
complex geo-political conflict in the region.
Born as Lhamo Thondup in the Amodo region of Tibet in 1935,
identified as the Dalai Lama incarnate at the age of two, after the death of
the 13th Dalai Lama in 1933, he was trained to become the next Dalai
Lama. Conferred with the monastic name
of Tenzin Gyatso, at the age of 15, he was enthroned as the spiritual and
religious leader of Tibetans. Following China’s annexation of Tibet in 1950-51,
the Dalai Lama left Lhasa and fled to India in 1959 and established the Tibetan
government in exile or CTA (Central Tibetan Administration), in Dharamsala.
In his recent book, published in March, “Voice of the
Voiceless”, Dalai Lama wrote, “Since the purpose of a reincarnation is to
carry on the work of the predecessor, the new Dalai Lama will be born in the
free world”. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Dalai Lama chooses to
reincarnate in India, for he has lived in India for 66 years. The 4th
Dalai Lama was born in Mongolia, and the 6th Dalai Lama was traced
to the Tawang region of Arunachal Pradesh.
After the Dalai Lama’s announcement, China insisted that the
‘Golden Urn method’ instituted by the Qing Dynasty would prevail. The Imperial
Ordinance of 1793 (Better Governance of Tibet or the 29-article ordinance) of
China prescribes the procedure for reincarnation of the Living Buddhas and
subjects the selected candidate to the approval by Beijing. Acceding to the challenging times of the time,
the ordinance was applied in the 11th, 12th Dalai Lamas
and dispensed with in the 9th, 13th and 14th
Dalai Lamas. China’s disapproval of the
Dalai Lama’s succession plan is a painful reminder of its blatant interference
in the religious matters of Tibetans.
In 1995, just three days after the Dalai Lama recognised a six-year-old
child reincarnate, born in Lhari County, Tibet, for the second-highest office
of the 11th Panchen Lama, he was abducted along with his parents.
His mysterious disappearance is still unresolved. Despite international
pressure, Chinese authorities refuse to confirm his whereabouts. The Panchen
Lama is historically tasked with identifying the Dalai Lama's reincarnation,
and hence, the position assumes considerable significance. In 1996, China
replaced the Panchen Lama with another boy whose parents were believed to be
members of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). China’s disapproval of the Dalai
Lama’s succession plan has ascertained the prospect of Tibetans having two
Dalai Lamas.
Given the large population of the Tibetan exile community in
India, the Tibetan question is both a foreign policy issue and a domestic
affair as well. The bulk of Tibetan exiles, roughly 85,000 people, live in
India. Beijing views India’s asylum of the Dalai Lama as a contentious issue.
Considered as the potent symbol of non-violence, compassion and religious
tolerance, his presence in India rankles China as this effectively undermines
the legitimacy of Chinese claims to Tibet.
Though he hasn’t alluded to independent status for Tibet,
the Dalai Lama rejected China’s historical claims to Tibet by stating that ‘Chinese
and Tibetan people have lived as neighbours’. He proposed a “Middle-way”
approach of having a “genuine autonomy” while being a part of the PRC, frustrating
Chinese dreams of reunification. Even though the CTA and Tibetan parliament
have passed legislation on the “middle way solution” as a way to resolve the
Sino-Tibetan issue, Tibetans haven’t forsaken the independence question. Thus,
the Tibet question remains a vexatious issue for China.
Getting to the heart of China’s discomfort with the Dalai
Lama, Vijay Gokhale, former Indian ambassador to China, in his paper- “The Next
Dalai Lama Preparing for Incarnation: Why It Matters to India?” writes that the
CCP’s policy approaches the Tibet question through the lens of social stability
and national security. Religion is antithetical to communism. As a natural
consequence, the CCP is highly distrustful of the religious influence of the
Dalai Lama over the Tibetan populace.
China’s intolerance towards the Dalai Lama flows from the
CCP’s inherent ideological intolerance towards religion and the
disproportionate influence of the Dalai Lama on indigenous Tibetans despite
over six decades of his absence from the original seat of Tibetan Buddhism, Potala
Palace, Lhasa. He is revered as the embodiment of Tibetan identity, values and
religious beliefs. Sadly, for Beijing, its military might and economic
integration attempts have failed to erase the Dalai Lama from the collective
memories of Tibetans. CCP considers the Dalai Lama a threat to social stability.
After the two rounds of failed exploratory talks between the
CCP and the Dalai Lama in 1982 and 1984, to build international pressure on
China, the Dalai Lama has internationalised the Tibetan issue. Subsequently, the
CCP, which is extremely irascible about its international image, labelled him a
“splittist” and a “wolf in sheep’s clothing”.
Additionally, burgeoning Western interest in the Tibetan
question accentuated the CCP’s fears of religious institutions becoming
conduits for foreign interference. CCP is keen on having a pliant Dalai Lama to
bury the Tibetan question. The Dalai Lama’s rejection of Chinese authority on
the reincarnation process has widened the existing discordance. PRC intends to
quell the idea of the Dalai Lama to subdue Tibet into complete subservience. CCP
believes Tibetan Buddhism has a potential destabilisation role and deems
reincarnation as the cornerstone of the ‘securitisation’ of PRC.
Notwithstanding several centuries of religious and cultural
contacts with Tibet, India has meekly surrendered its customary rights in
Tibetan territory after the Chinese invasion to avoid confrontation with the
PRC. Even after ceding its
extraterritorial privileges in 1954, thanks to India’s diplomatic pusillanimity,
China invaded India in 1962.
China acknowledges Indian influence on the Dalai Lama, but
India refrained from overtly playing the ‘Tibet Card’ to avoid provoking
Beijing. However, India permits the Tibetan exile community to practice and
nurture their religion and culture. The CTA and the Tibetan parliament operate
from India. India accords high respect to the Dalai Lama as the living legend
of Tibetan Buddhism and allows foreign delegations to visit Dharmsala.
“Tibet is China’s soft underbelly”, and the CCP, wary of
this vulnerability, has steadily ratcheted up repressive legislative measures
to obliterate its religious identity. Ushering in “Sinicisation” of Tibet, the
CCP has introduced mandatory patriotic re-education for Tibetan monks and nuns
and delegated CCP cadres to oversee the functioning of Buddhist monasteries in
Tibet. It also approved and recognised
93 newly reincarnated Living Buddhas by 2022. While the CCP is systematically
uprooting the basic foundations of Tibetan Buddhism, the institute blossomed in
India. India is now the seat of Tibetan educational and cultural institutions.
Despite sheltering the exiled Tibetan community, India never
allowed any anti-Chinese activities on its territory. Indeed, India has been
circumspect in dealing with the Dalai Lama and strictly upholds the three M’s-
Mutual Respect, Mutual Sensitivities and Mutual Interests. Beijing considers
all aspects related to Tibet as internal affairs and brooks no external interference.
China expects India to unconditionally extend all assistance regarding Tibet,
but wouldn’t extend similar reciprocity. Post- Article 370 abrogation, it
backed Pakistan in internationalising the Kashmir issue.
Clearly, China’s relentless anti-India campaigns, including
the veto blocks at the UNSC, blatant violation of mutually agreed bilateral
treaties, and continued incursions along the border, warrant a serious
recalibration of India's approach. The growing list of China’s inimical unilateral
anti-India actions, such as military help and intelligence support to Pakistan
during Operation Sindoor, withdrawal of Chinese technicians from Indian
electronic manufacturing, stalling of rare earths and speciality fertilisers
and infiltration of India’s military supply chains are now reaching a
geopolitical inflexion point.
Unlike India’s nuanced diplomacy, the US has swiftly and
tactfully rechartered its Tibetan policy to align with its strategic interests.
During World War II, the US never
questioned China’s claims to Tibet but directed the Dalai Lama to disavow the
Seventeenth Amendment after the 1950 Korean War. The CIA had assisted the
Khampa Rebellion in East Tibet. After the failed rebellion, the US recognised
the special status of Tibet and acknowledged its self-determination.
In 1979, the Nixon administration adopted a hands-off
approach to Tibet to establish diplomatic ties with China. By the late 1980s, the
US Congress supported the Tibetan Buddhist cause, hosted the Dalai Lama at the
White House and created a special coordinator for Tibetan affairs to oversee
human rights issues of Tibetans
By 2002, when US-China ties reached a new level, the US
Congress passed the Tibetan Policy Act (TPA), making it a political agenda. In
2020, Trump signed the second piece of legislation, turning the Tibetan Policy
and Support Act (TPSA) into a law. TPSA endorsed Tibetan rights to select their
leaders and termed China’s interference in the reincarnation process as “blatant
violation of the fundamental religious freedom of Tibetan Buddhists”, and
allowed the US administration to sanction CCP officials interfering with the identification
and installation of the 15th Dalai Lama. The law mandated the special
coordinator on Tibetan affairs to explore international coalitions to oppose
Chinese efforts to select Tibetan Living Buddhas and protect Tibetan religious
rights.
Bolstering Tibetan policy, in 2024, Biden signed the third
piece of legislation- the Resolve Tibet Act (Promotion of a Resolution to the
Tibet-China Dispute Act), which asserted that the US government “has never
taken a position that Tibet was a part of China since ancient times”. It
specifically defined that the Tibetan Autonomous Region (TAR) comprises
Qinghai, Gansu, Sichuan and Yunnan. Washington’s three-piece legislation,
besides safeguarding the Tibetan Buddhist rights, can double up as a potent
geopolitical tool against China’s grand reunification dream. The US has
certainly played into Chinese fears of foreign interference. To ward off any external
forces, Xi has tightened regulations on Tibetans and to reassert China’s
legitimacy, started calling Tibet 'Xizang'.
Eschewing the US administration's international coalition
for the Tibetan question, India explicitly remained neutral to the US
legislation on Tibet. Cognisant of the potential implications of the Tibet
issue on India-China relations, New Delhi deliberately manages the Dalai Lama
very cautiously.
Reacting to the Dalai Lama’s succession plan, the MEA
clarified, “The government of India does not take any position or speak on
matters concerning beliefs and practices of faith and religion. The government
has always upheld freedom of religion for all in India and will continue to do
so”. However, in a significant departure, GoI will be represented by
Ministers Kiren Rijiju, Rajeev Ranjan Singh, Chief Minister of Arunachal Pema
Khandu, Chief Minister of Sikkim Prem Singh Tamang and Karnataka Minister Gangadaraiah
at the 90th Birthday celebration of Dalai Lama on July 6th
as a signal to China.
As a vibrant democracy committed to upholding the religious rights of the persecuted community and their rights, India must now take a strong stance. As a home to a major chunk of Tibetan Buddhists, the reincarnation process and the interregnum period of identification of the 15th Dalai Lama can have significant security implications for India. India can leverage the exiled Tibetan community, but refrains from provoking China. But as Beijing continues to ruthlessly trample India’s ‘Red Lines’, it is time to recalibrate its Tibetan policy.
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