Responding to Trump’s claims of a ceasefire between India and Pakistan, in a rather provocative interview with Dutch Broadcaster NOS, EAM Jaishankar clarified, “The ceasefire was negotiated directly between India and Pakistan….We made one thing very clear to everybody who spoke to us, not just the United States, but to everyone, saying if the Pakistanis want to stop fighting, they need to tell us. We need to hear it from them. Their general has to call up our general and say this. And that is what happened”. He pointedly noted, “The US was in the United States”. Jaishankar’s statement is among the numerous clarifications and denials the government of India has issued as President Trump continued to double down on the India-Pakistan ceasefire.
Trump, being Trump, as evident from his first term, is a
compulsive credit hogger. He continues to strut around pompously, exaggerating
his role in the India-Pakistan ceasefire even as India has been rebutting his
claims both politically and diplomatically. Trump’s ceasefire statement on
social media ahead of the Indian government’s formal announcement in the thick
of the conflict baffled the political dispensation and Indians alike. While the
Indian military inflicted a mighty blow on the Pakistani terrorist ecosystem,
Trump’s hubristic claims of the American role and mediation have despoiled the
sheen of Operation Sindoor’s huge success. India’s opportunistic opposition on
a prowl to pounce on the political regime got a big stick to belittle the
military’s big bang delivered to Pakistan.
Having invested immense energies and tact to position
himself as a peacemaker, Trump’s nugatory peace overtures to North Korea’s Kim
Jong Un during his first term ended up as a damp squib. During his campaign,
Trump promised to end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 hours of taking charge.
Four months into office, Trump declared, “This isn't my war.
We got ourselves entangled in something we shouldn't have been involved in”. Terming
the call with President Trump on May 21st, ‘excellent’, Putin agreed
to ceasefire negotiations, but offered no timeline or verifiable pullback. In
fact, Russian forces launched 100 drones on Ukraine the same day. While Trump
omitted the issue of sanctions, Russia continued to persist with its hardline
claims, made no compromises, but welcomed US efforts.
Trump pushed the idea of increased economic cooperation
between the US and Russia ahead of bilateral talks in Riyadh in March.
Responding to Trump’s reset, Russia included investment manager Kirill Dmitriev
in the delegation. The mineral deal with
Ukraine has been the essential precondition for Trump for America’s continued
support.
Trump’s big proclamations on China ended as a dud missile
due to Xi Jinping’s defiance. By imposing huge retaliatory tariffs, Xi forced
America to blink first, from whopping 245% tariffs on some goods, countries
have now settled on 30% tariffs.
Trump vowed to bring about peace in the Middle East and end the
ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. His team’s short-lived ceasefire
ended up in a big failure, with Israel resuming attacks on Gaza after Hamas
backed down on hostage release. The conflict continues to simmer in the Middle
East. After his ‘peacemaker’ stance took a hit, he turned his attention away
from Israel.
Trump’s fetish for personal diplomacy and face-to-face
interactions stems not from his aversion to conflicts but from his quest for
deal-making steered by transactionalism. Unfortunately, his penchant for
seeking a business opportunity is steadily overpowering his discretion in the
complex geopolitical engagements.
Trump, who signed a flurry of executive orders to combat
anti-semitism, suddenly veered the track, voicing concerns over starvation in
Gaza on the final day of his Gulf tour. Lest people miss the context, the $400
million Qatari jet made all the difference. Now, Trump is aggressively pushing
for nuclear talks with Iran, much to the discomfort of Netanyahu, started
direct negotiations with Hamas for American hostage release, lifted sanctions
on Syria and recently bargained a temporary peace with Yemeni Houthis.
Trump is keen that the world acknowledge his position as the
leader of a superpower. He seeks an opportunity in every conflict to project
America’s role. This was clearly evident in his repeated bluster about playing
a role as mediator in the India-Pakistan conflict. Claiming that India has been
fighting for 1000/ 1500 years with Pakistan he bragged about using the trade
lever to stop the conflict, which was on the verge of going nuclear. In the
process, he equated India and Pakistan all for the sake of optics.
Trump’s equivocation of terror target, India, with terror
perpetrator, Pakistan, has touched a raw nerve as it reminded New Delhi of the
old entanglements. Trump’s repeated claims exposed his lack of understanding
and his double-speak.
In 2017, Trump vowed to “eradicate radical Islamic
terrorism”, urged Muslim nations to “drive out terrorists”, and even barred
citizens and refugees from seven Muslim countries over concerns of “terrorism”.
Days into this second term, Trump approved the extradition of 26/11 accused
Tahawwur Rana. The India-US Joint statement of February 13, 2025, stated,
“recognising a shared desire to bring to justice those who would harm our
citizens, the US announced that the extradition to India of Tahawwur Rana has
been approved”.
Days after the Pahalgam attacks, Trump announced US support
for India in the fight against terrorism. In response to India’s strikes on
terrorist camps in Pakistan, Trump reacted, “It’s a shame. We just heard about
it, they have been fighting for a long time… I just hope it just ends quickly”.
Four days later, Trump posted on Truth Social, “After a long night of talks
mediated by the United States, I am pleased to announce that India and Pakistan
have agreed to a FULL and IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE. Congratulations to both
Countries on using Common Sense and Great Intelligence”.
In 2019, post Article-370 abrogation, on the sidelines of the
G7 Summit, PM Modi categorically rejected “any scope of third-party mediation
between India and Pakistan”. Trump’s repeated reiterations of false claims to
hog in limelight were a rude shock. It betrayed India’s trust.
India has refused to validate Trump’s claims on the ceasefire
of Operation Sindoor, which is temporarily halted but not terminated. India is
now doubling down on Pakistan by sending several multi-party delegations to
various countries.
Trump’s favourable statements about Pakistan, which are
getting more repetitive, “Pakistan has got some excellent people, a really
great leader,” have forced people to dig below the surface for answers. This
eventually turned attention to a crypto deal signed between the Pakistan Crypto
Council (PCC), set up a month ago, with World Liberty Foundation (WLF), a cryptocurrency
firm. Trump’s family- his two sons and
son-in-law Jared Kushner hold 75% of the stakes in the firm. It is co-chaired
by Zachary Witkoff, the son of Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff. Pakistani
Prime Minister and Army General Asim Munir was seen hosting them after the
signing ceremony.
Gentry Beach, a friend of Trump’s son Donald Trump Jr, a
Trump associate who raised millions of dollars for Trump’s campaign, toured
Pakistan, Bangladesh and Turkey in January. He is believed to have favoured
investments in the mining sector and facilitated the crypto deal.
In the thick of Operation Sindoor, the US unlocked the IMF
bailout plan for Pakistan, facilitating the immediate release of $1 billion and
approving a fresh loan of $1.4 billion. As India continues to intensify its
campaign against Pakistan’s state-sponsored terrorism, Trump has recently
appointed two known jihadists and sympathisers of Lashkar-e-Taiba, al-Qaeda and
Hamas, Ismail Royer and Shaykh Hamza Yusuf, to the White House advisory board
under the Religious Liberty Commission.
Buoyed by Trump’s favours, Pakistan signed long-time Trump
associates Javelin Associates, Keith Schiller, and George Sorial, the Trump
Organisation’s compliance officer, to forge a long-term economic partnership
and secure investments in mining. It is well known that countries lobby the US
to influence its foreign policy for favourable gains and trade deals. However,
Trump’s brazen whitewashing of Pakistani terrorism and re-hyphenation of India
and Pakistan has dismayed New Delhi.
Trump’s praise of Pakistan at the Union State address for
handing over a terrorist while lashing out at India as ‘tariff King’ and
authorisation of $397 million for F-16 maintenance, which is among the 243
exceptions made under an executive order that halted overseas funding, hasn’t
escaped India’s notice. The drift has been steady.
India was among the few countries to have diplomatically
managed Trump’s trade deal, quietly absorbing his barbs. But this perceived red
line and misadventurous blustering on India-Pakistan mediation has solidified
India’s doubts of the US as an ‘unreliable partner’. Trump’s diplomatic cover
fire to Pakistan is inexcusable on many counts as it betrays the trust of his
own vote bank that has silently voiced concerns over Islamist radicalism.
Additionally, Trump’s ‘big beautiful bill’, which proposes
to impose 3.5% tax on outward remittances, his initial warning to Tim Cook, “I
don’t want you building (manufacturing) in India” and threatening to impose 25%
tax on iPhones made in India and other countries are ample indicators of his
attempt to intimidate India. Putin has played down Trump, and Xi Jinping has
defied him. Now, Trump is running down on India for some quick wins.
Over eight decades, India has determinedly withstood
America’s strong-arm tactics and asserted its strategic autonomy. However, Trump’s
ruthless disregard of India’s insensitivities has sowed political distrust.
Given the multi-dimensional cooperation of the Comprehensive Strategic Global
Partnership between India and US, India has to now rework its engagement with
Trump administration. With a strategic financial investment in Trump’s empire,
Pakistan has now earned his backing. Implicitly, Trump expects Indian
businesses to open their purse strings.
While bureaucrats and analysts continue to parrot,
‘structural and systemic convergences between India and US are too deep’ to be
undermined, the path to compromised American political systems clearly runs through
lobbyist alleys. Value-based geopolitics is a thing of past; financial realism
is what matters in Trump’s world.
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