Bracing Inimical Geopolitical Nexus

India’s overwhelming military dominance during Operation Sindoor compelled Pakistan to plead for a ceasefire. The four-day-long conflict gave India an important opportunity to take a stock of the unravelling geopolitical configurations within the region and across the world. Operation Sindoor is India’s fight against terrorism, the foremost global challenge, which nations are grappling to curb. Nations openly harp and harangue about it. However, India found itself all alone in its war against terrorism with no major power openly supporting it (barring Israel).

China and Turkey openly backed the perpetrator of terrorism, Pakistan. They supplied weapons, arms and remained in touch with Pakistan throughout the four-day-long conflict. China is believed to have provided intelligence inputs about Indian troop location and air defences, and remained in touch with Pakistan during the course of kinetic action.

Renowned analyst Srikanth Kondapalli wrote, China has supplied $20 billion worth of arms to Pakistan, which included J-10CE and JF-17 Block III fighter aircraft, Wing Loong drones, frigates, submarines, Hongqi HQ-9p missiles, LY-80 air defence systems, ZDK early warning aircraft, among others. Besides the overt diplomatic support, Beijing closely worked with Turkey in withholding the inclusion of TRF’s name in the 1267 Committee UNSC resolution, dispatched 200 fishing boats to the Indian Ocean to monitor Indian naval movements.

Influential Chinese bloggers amplified Pakistan’s misinformation and fake propaganda against India. Regular joint military exercises have enhanced interoperability and integration of the command and control centres of both militaries. Offering necessary coordinate support on all the fronts- air, land and water domains, China has eventually become a part of Pakistan’s proxy war against India.

China threw its entire weight behind Pakistan in the four-day conflict. However, hours after Trump’s ceasefire statement not to be left behind, Beijing adroitly shifted its stance and announced, “We support and welcome the realisation of the ceasefire between India and Pakistan and stand ready to continue to play a constructive role in securing a full and lasting ceasefire and upholding regional peace and stability”. China’s diplomatic intervention kept the global attention away from the behind-the-scenes support for Pakistan’s attacks.

On the contrary, Turkey came out in Pakistan’s defence with full ballast. Debris recovered from targeted sites included remnants of Turkish Asisguard Songar and YIHA drones deployed by Pakistan. Pakistan used over 400 drones to target Indian military infrastructure and 36 locations, along the Northern and Western borders from Leh to Sir Creek. Pakistan has used even the famed Bayraktar TB2 drones against India, manufactured by the Turkish defence contractor, Baykar. The chairman of the defence firm is Selcuk Bayraktar, the son-in-law of President Erdogan.

Defence production and arms manufacturing are becoming one of the cornerstones of Erdogan’s foreign policy. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) report, Pakistan is now the second-largest destination of Turkey’s defence products. India’s contemporary ties to Turkey date back to the Khilafat movement when the Indian Congress party mobilised the entire country to support the Ottoman Empire. Post World War II, Turkey opposed communism, sided with the US and joined NATO. In 1954, Turkey and Pakistan signed a treaty of friendship and cooperation. Later, both of them, along with Iran and the United Kingdom, became the founding members of the Baghdad Pact or Central Treaty Organisation (CENTO), while India adopted a non-alignment policy.

Turkey supported Pakistan during the 1965 and 1971 wars. On the other hand, India backed Cyprus for a peaceful resolution to the eviction of Turkish troops deployed in Northern Cyprus. Towards the end of the Cold War era, Turkey attempted to build relations with India when both countries agreed to set up defence attaches in 1986. After India opened its economy, Turkey found an economic opportunity in India, and both countries signed a couple of agreements on scientific cooperation, avoidance of double taxation, etc. But ties soon frayed as Turkey continued to rake up the Kashmir issue at the Organisation of Islamic Countries (OIC) meetings.

Turkey, by and large, cherished a pro-Pakistani lens, barring a sole exception of Socialist Democrat Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit, who condemned the military coup of Pervez Musharaf. He rejected Pakistan’s invitation and travelled to Indian in 2000. He recalibrated Turkey’s position on Kashmir and called for a bilateral settlement. Around this time, PM Vajpayee steered the bilateral ties with his visit.

Prime Minister Erdogan’s AKP party, in the nascent stages, prioritising economic collaboration on his visit to India in 2008, explored the possibility of an FTA. ISRO launched Turkey’s first nano satellite in 2009. However, as Erdogan’s Muslim Brotherhood, subterranean links began to dominate his political ideology, Turkey’s approach towards India witnessed a marked shift. Concomitant to Turkey’s political transition from a secular republic to an Islamist authoritarianism under Erdogan, who became the first directly elected President in 2014, his foreign policy underwent a swift change. His unabashed Islamic pursuits changed the political and diplomatic outlook of Turkey.

Harbouring the ambitions of becoming the Neo-Ottoman Caliph, aspiring to don the global Islamic leadership mantle, Erdogan sought to resurrect the lost imperial glory. In this quest, Erdogan found a natural ideological partner in Pakistan. This overt pro-Pakistan drift became more prominent after Turkey became a partner in Pakistan’s attempts to internationalise the Kashmir issue in the aftermath of the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019. Ever since, Kashmir has found a mention in his UNGA speeches except for 2024.

Reciprocating Turkey’s favour, Pakistan helped Istanbul and Malaysia host a summit to create a new bloc that would rival the OIC at Kuala Lumpur in 2019 for Muslim nations. However, under intense pressure from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and its allies, Pakistan pulled out of the summit at the last hour.

As India continued to build strong relations with Arab nations like the UAE, Saudi and other GCC countries, Erdogan cultivated Pakistan. Though India is Turkey’s second-largest trade partner in East Asia after China, amounting to $10.43 billion as against bilateral trade of $1.4 billion with Pakistan, Istanbul has explicitly towed an anti-Indian line.

In 2018, Pakistan signed an agreement with Turkey’s ASFAT to acquire four MILGEM-class stealth corvettes, including transfer of technology. Pakistan also received F16 Fighter Falcon jets from Turkish Aerospace Industries. Both countries deepened defence cooperation. Turkey played an active role in modernising Pakistan’s navy, including the upgradation of Pakistan’s Agosta 90B submarines. According to SIPRI, Pakistan received three Bayraktar drones in 2022.

To counter Turkey, India has intensified engagement with Greece, Cyprus and emerged as the largest supplier of arms to Armenia, the mortal enemy of Azerbaijan. Pakistan, Turkey and Azerbaijan are part of the Three Brothers Alliance. All three countries signed the Trilateral Islamabad Declaration in 2021 to show solidarity with Baku after the 44-day war with Armenia.

Additionally, Turkey’s grouse against India stems from its exclusion from the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). IMEC undercuts Turkey’s vital importance as a formidable connectivity hub between Asia and Europe. By building strong partnerships with the UAE, France and Israel, India has hedged against Turkey’s growing prominence in defence and maritime security.

In February 2025, Pakistan and Turkey signed 24 cooperation agreements, including air force warfare cooperation and signed a joint declaration, “Deepening, Diversifying and Institutionalising the Strategic Partnership”. Turkey reiterated its support for Pakistan on the Kashmir issue. As part of this warfare cooperation agreement, Turkey deployed two drone operators to Pakistan who were reportedly killed during the Operation Sindoor.

Days after the Pahalgam attack, a high-level Turkish military delegation landed in Pakistan, Turkey’s C-130 military aircraft delivered drones to Pakistan, and its Ada class anti-submarine corvette docked at Karachi on May 2.

After India struck Pakistani terrorist camps, Turkey lauded Pakistan’s “calm and restrained policies” and batted Pakistan’s call for an investigation into the Pahalgam attack. On May 10, Turkey strongly came out in support of Pakistan and defended its position completely.

Notwithstanding Turkey’s Pakistani drift, in 2013, under Operation Dost, India rushed 250 defence personnel to Istanbul in the aftermath of devastating earthquakes to help with rescue and relief operations. India even deployed an IAF aircraft and Garuda drones to assist in rescue efforts. India’s humanitarian gestures hardly made any impact on Turkey’s outlook.

Battling brewing dissent amid a severe crackdown on political opponents and a precarious economic outlook, Erdogan is refashioning his foreign policy to champion Islamic causes. To cater to the hardcore Islamist electorate, Erdogan threw his weight behind Hamas and Hezbollah, and supplied drones to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to topple Assad’s regime in Syria. Backing Pakistan perfectly fits his ideological agenda.

Economic interests clearly took a back seat for Erdogan. Indian exports to Turkey during Covid-19, such as aluminium components, automotive systems, telecom gear, aircraft parts, and various electronic assemblies, made their way into the drone manufacturing. Indian firm DCM Shriram Ltd signed a partnership agreement with Turkish UAV producer Zyrone Dynamics in 2021, unveiling a new chapter in the defence sector. However, ironically, Turkey imposed an embargo on defence weapons to India in 2024.

Turkey’s betrayal has evoked strong public outrage, culminating in #BoycottTurkey, Azerbaijan campaign. Indians have cancelled trips to Turkey, and the Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) decided to stop all kinds of imports from Turkey and Azerbaijan.

Erdogan’s AKP party maintains informal links with the Muslim Brotherhood. In 2005, Turkey created the Istanbul-based Union of NGOs of the Islamic World (UNIM) to create “ummah consciousness”. It has 340 organisations spread across 65 countries under its ambit. Operating through this wide network of NGOs, Turkey peddles a false narrative on Kashmir through the Helping Hand for Relief and Development (HHRD) and the Kashmir Action Council (KAC), both of which are US based UNIM organisations.

UNIM has close links with Bangladesh’s Jamaat-e-Islami and sponsors its activities, including the rehabilitation of Rohingyas. Post-Operation Sindoor, a Turkish NGO-backed Islamist group in Bangladesh started circulating “Saltanat-e-Bangla”, a map showing Greater Bangladesh, which includes Myanmar’s Arakan State, Bihar, Odisha, Jharkhand and the entire North Eastern region of India. Bangladesh’s acrimonious posturing in conjunction with the earlier statement that should India hit Pakistan, Dhaka should tie up with China to occupy India’s northeast, has exposed the entrenched anti-India Islamic coalition at work.

Turkey is implementing its Pakistan template in Bangladesh and also wooing Indian Muslims through its think-tank, South Asia Strategic Research Centre (GASAM). Erdogan’s ideological subservience to Dar-Al-Arab and Dar-Al-Islam closely overlaps with Pakistan’s Ghazwa-e-Hind. Operation Sindoor has exposed the nexus of India’s adversaries.

President Trump’s indifferent remarks on Operation Sindoor saying, “It’s a shame. We just heard about it, they’ve been fighting for a long time… I just hope it ends very quickly” and his attempts to hyphenate India and Pakistan, the old US foreign policy stance towards South Asia vindicated US’s “unreliable partner” reputation. The collective West’s reluctance to condemn Pakistan’s weaponisation of terrorism has exposed their hypocrisy and sanctimonious approach to counter terrorism operations.

President Trump’s handshake with the UN-designated terrorist, aka Abu Mohammed al-Julani, the founder of the terrorist organisation Al-Nusra, an affiliate organisation of Al-Qaeda, has revealed the West's policy of leveraging terrorism for its strategic interests. Similarly, China, which justifies its harsh counterterrorism and de-radicalisation policies in Xinjiang on the pretext of rising Uyghur terrorist activity, has sided with Pakistan, the mothership of terrorism.

Operation Sindoor has unambiguously laid bare the outlook of India’s friends and adversaries who are uncomfortable with India’s rise. The West’s loud proclamations to combat terrorism are hollow. Multilateral organisations responsible for overseeing sanctions on terrorist organisations have once again proved to be lame. Strategic voting at the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) and technical holds in the UNSC by veto-wielding powers have rendered counter-terrorism mechanisms of multilateral agencies ineffective.

Enforcing zero tolerance towards terrorism with unprecedented strategic clarity, India asserted its geopolitical stance. India’s tactical response to Pakistan’s terrorism under Operation Sindoor is truly a watershed movement. The political, diplomatic and military lessons from this strategic retaliation should now serve as a compass for India’s futuristic geopolitical strategy.

@ Copyrights reserved.