Western Isolation Resuscitates Russia’s Cold War Era Partnerships

The Ukraine war has drastically changed the geopolitical contours of the world. Steered by common interests and strategic compulsions, countries facing similar concerns are coming together. The latest geopolitical development of a mutual defence agreement between Russia and North Korea attests to the same. 

After his re-election for the fifth term by making Beijing the first port of call, Putin has unequivocally demonstrated a willingness to challenge the Western-dominated world order. Generating a thrust for an anti-Western coalition, Russia began to up its ante against the US. For the first time, in the first week of June, Russia referred to the US as an “enemy state”. The US announced a fresh round of sanctions on Russian banks on June 12 and subsequently, the US and EU agreed to freeze Russian assets until Moscow pays reparations for invading Ukraine. At the Italy G7 Summit, the US proposed to support a $50 billion loan to Ukraine using Russia’s frozen assets as collateral.

Unrelenting sanctions and mealy peace initiatives have forced Russia to charter a different course to duck the economic fallout and isolation. Russia’s “no limits friendship” with China has been the consequence of the same.

At a time, when the world has resigned to a binary of US versus China, rediscovering its cold war mozo, Putin on his four-day visit to Asia has reinfused new energy into its old and trusted partnership. While Putin’s China visit had analysts ruminating about the possibility of Russia becoming a junior partner to Beijing, his Asia trip has dropped perceptible hints of Moscow’s resurgence. Contesting the prototype of the new Cold War of the US versus China, the trip reinforced the rise of multiple power centres with Russia trying to assert its global place.

Inadvertently, Russia’s touted “special military operation” in Ukraine undermined the Europeanness of Moscow. Extending full support to Ukraine, the European Countries led by the US took on Russia. Supporting Ukraine has become tantamount to upholding European values. The international sanctions regime and the concomitant freezing of Russian assets by the West has successfully isolated Moscow. Initially, to evade Western blockade and sustain economic growth Russia doubled its energy trade with Asian countries that condemned US-led sanctions. Catering to the energy demands of growing economies like India and China by transacting in national currencies, Moscow successfully endured the sanctions regime.

North Korea was among the first nations which publicly came out in support of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and even recognised the Russian annexation of four Ukrainian territories following a sham referendum in September 2022. As the war entered into the second year, muddled by allegations of war crimes and issuance of the arrest warrant by ICC, constrained by the unfavourable geopolitical climate, Putin quickly changed the tack and began investing diplomatic currency in building ties with the Asian countries and the Global South Nations.

While European countries catered to the war needs of Ukraine including military assistance weapons and ammunition, Russia began to slowly reactivate its Asian links. Months into the Ukraine war, Russia closed an agreement with Iran for the supply of drones and surface-to-surface missiles. Though Russia and Iran denied reports of an arms sale agreement, Ukraine confirmed the use of Iranian drones and missiles by Russia in the war.

Around the same time, Russia and North Korea intensified their ties with DPRK restoring train connectivity with Moscow after Covid and Russia resuming oil exports to Pyongyang. In addition to the longstanding bilateral ties, the Damocles Sword of sanctions has brought Russia and DPRK closer.

North Korea has been under international sanctions since 2006 over its nuclear program and ballistic missile testing. These sanctions have toughened after North Korea’s latest nuclear tests in 2017. Indeed, complying with UNSC economic sanctions even India ceased trade with North Korea in April 2017. Cognisant of the importance of denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula, Russia supported UN sanctions against North Korea after the nuclear tests in 2009 and consistently batted for the annual renewal of the UN Panel of Experts (PoE) that monitors the enforcement of international sanctions.

But, in April, acknowledging North Korea’s support for the Ukraine war, Russia vetoed the renewal of PoE. This strategic shift among other things can be traced to the alleged supply of over 10,000 containers of munitions and military equipment to Russia for use against Ukraine. In exchange for replenishment of ammunition reserves, Russia shipped food and energy supplies to the former.

In January, Ukraine told the UN sanctions committee of finding debris from the North Korean missile Hwasong-II missile in its territory. While Russia and North Korea refuted these allegations, to meet the inexhaustible war needs, Russia has been importing munitions from North Korea.

In September 2023, Kim Jong Un travelled to Russia for a summit talk on military cooperation and seeking help with satellite technology. Both leaders toured the Vostochny Space Launch Facility in the Far East together and by November 2023, North Korea put its first spy satellite into orbit.

Paying a reciprocal visit for the first time in 24 years, Putin who landed in Pyongyang in the early hours of June 19 at around 2:45 am was greeted warmly by Kim Jong Un and thousands of residents thronged the roads to welcome him. Following several rounds of talks leaders signed a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement for broader cooperation in military, foreign policy and trade. As per North Korean agencies, the agreement pledges mutual aid. A section of the pact states that “if one of the countries get invaded and is pushed into a state of war, the other must deploy “all means at its disposal without delay” to provide “military and other assistance”¹.

Russian Presidential aide Yuri Ushakov told the media that the new agreement would replace- “the Treaty of Friendship and Mutual Assistance of 1961, the Treaty on Friendship and Good Neighbourliness in Cooperation of 2000 and the Moscow and Pyongyang declarations of 2000 and 2001”.  With this mutual defense agreement, Russia callously undermined the non-proliferation norms and deepened security ties with North Korea. Strengthening this mutually beneficial relationship with North Korea, suffering from an acute manpower crunch, Russia has also initiated talks for the recruitment of 50,000 North Korean labourers to rebuild war-torn areas.

Since the sealing of the agreement with Russia, North Korean soldiers have attempted to breach the demilitarised zone (DMZ) sparking fresh tension in the Korean peninsula. Mutual Defense security agreement has certainly come as a shot in the arm for DPRK whose hostile activities have kept South Korea and Japan on tenterhooks. Both countries have now vowed to strengthen their defenses. South Korea has announced its plans to consider sending lethal weapons to Ukraine.

From Pyongyang, Putin made a one-day visit to longstanding friend Vietnam. Soviet Union has supported Vietnam in its war against France and the US. The Soviet Union was among the first countries to recognise Vietnam and establish diplomatic ties. Unlike North Korea, Vietnam known for its Bamboo Diplomacy remained neutral to the Ukraine war. Known for steadfastly safeguarding its national interests while maintaining flexible and adaptive diplomatic engagements, Vietnam declined to participate in the Ukraine Peace Summit in Switzerland. Both countries signed 11 MoUs including civil nuclear projects, energy cooperation, education, trade, investments and health.

Putin’s visit to Vietnam is an attempt to strengthen bilateral relations and underscore the importance of Hanoi’s neutral stance. Russia has been among the largest defence suppliers of Vietnam and both countries together collaborated on oil exploration in the South China Sea region claimed by China.

While the US was incredibly miffed by Putin’s Asia tour, China is equally rattled by Putin’s strategic manoeuvres. Russia and China have been close friends of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) since its creation in 1953. DPRK continued to balance its ties with both Russia and China. At the height of Sino-Soviet hostility, China signed a defence agreement with North Korea in 1961 which was renewed in 2021. China, the largest trading partner of North Korea wields an influence over the latter in terms of mediating Pyongyang’s relations with the external world and containing its nuclear ambitions. China is keen on keeping North Korea a vassal state to safeguard its own safety and survival. Though China and North Korea are close allies, Pyongyang has a history of defying China. A defence agreement with Russia will embolden North Korea and diminish Chinese influence on the latter.

The putative defence technology transfer and military cooperation between Russia and a pariah country like North Korea have generated global unease. As this move can potentially destabilise the volatile Korean Peninsula and North East Asia.

United by a sanctions regime, a deepening of cooperation between Russia, North Korea and Iran can have far-reaching implications for the Middle East, especially Israel and India. Touted to be the largest producer of missiles in the world, Iran’s technology prowess stems from its military cooperation with North Korea. Missiles used by the Iranian non-state partners like Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis have an imprint of North Korean technology. In the horrific October 7 attack, Hamas has used the North Korean-made F7 rocket-propelled grenade³. Embracing North Korea, Putin has triggered a crisis and intensified hostilities.

The immediate fallout of Putin’s Asia tour has been that Washington is seeking urgent direct talks with Russia to contain nuclear risk and negotiate Ukraine peace talks. This comes at the back of Putin’s statement that called for reciprocal supplies of weapons to North Korea as an appropriate response to the West’s supply of weapons to Ukrainian forces.

To the West, which is obsessed ‘with predicting Russian failure’, Putin is complicating the geopolitical maze with his bold and capricious moves. On the flip side, forced to deal with Chinese belligerence and the US uncertainty, a Russian presence in the Indo-Pacific is set to add a new dimension to regional power play. Of late, disillusioned by China, Myanmar is tightening ties with Russia and turned to Moscow to revive Dawei Port, a deep port that opens into the Andaman Sea. Reportedly, Russia has expressed interest in Vietnam’s Cam Ranh Bay, an erstwhile strategic US base during the Vietnam War. While Russian entry into the region is favoured by countries to counter China, Putin’s complex diplomacy is keeping everyone guessing including China.

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