On September 21 President Biden hosted Prime Minister Modi, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese for the fourth in-person Quad Leaders’ Summit at his home in Wilmington, Delaware. Wilmington Summit marks 20 years since its inception. Over the two decades, the Quad has transitioned from being a disaster response assistance forum to a force for ‘global good’. However, with leadership change in the offing in the US and Japan, speculations are rife about its vivacity.
Biden
administration has elevated the Foreign Ministers level meeting to a leaders
summit in 2021. The Wilmington Summit is the sixth iteration of the Leaders’
Summit and it includes two virtual editions. The Quad was resuscitated twice
and the current version Quad 3.0 revitalised at the height of the Covid has
attempted to address the prevailing global challenges of the times. Broadly the
framework encompassed the 21st century challenges- Covid and Global
Health, Infrastructure, Climate, People to People Exchange and Education,
Critical and Emerging Technologies, Cybersecurity and Space.
Subsequently,
to strengthen ties with the allies and partners in tackling the global
challenges, US launched the Indo-Pacific Economic Forum (IPEF) in 2022.
IPEF has four broad pillars- Trade, Supply Chain, Clean Economy and Supply
Economy. Given, the US reluctance to open its economy, the progress on this
front has been rather tepid, especially on the trade front. New
minilaterals branched out of the Quad since 2022 potentially diluting the
momentum of the Quad.
Strengthening
strategic partnerships, Quad Partners along with like-minded countries soon
formed new groupings like- I2U2, AUKUS, and SQUAD (US, Japan, Australia
and the Philippines). All of the spin-offs led by the US have an
overlapping agenda. All these are offshoots of the US’s Indo-Pacific
Strategy and emanate from its perceived threats from a rising China.
China’s
burgeoning influence in the Indo-Pacific led to Quad’s revival in 2017 by
Donald Trump. Shortly, the construct of the Indo-Pacific was popularised,
the United States Pacific Command was renamed as United States Indo-Pacific
Command and the concept of “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” was formalised. Devoid
of the military aspect, the Quad group essentially evolved to challenge China
in the Indo-Pacific region. Countering China has been the unwritten
underpinning of the Quad.
With the
traditional security aspect of it now outsourced to the AUKUS and SQUAD, the de
facto security alliances, the Quad has expanded its agenda to include the
non-traditional security challenges which aggravated in the aftermath of the
Covid.
India
expected to host the summit deferred it to next year honouring Joe Biden’s
request. Amid the complex geopolitical crisis with wars in Ukraine, the Middle
East and expansionist adventurism in the South China Sea, the 5400 words
Wilmington Declaration has essentially brought out to fore two aspects to the
fore. Quad, the short form Quad Security Dialogue overtly focussing on
bolstering cooperation on the “non-traditional security challenges” unsparing
made oblique references to the elephant in the room, China.
With open,
free, inclusive, stable, prosperous, secure Indo-Pacific as the guiding spirit
of the Quad, while doubly reassuring that “Quad isn’t against anyone” the declaration
is generously splattered with obvious and unmissable remarks like “strongly
oppose any destabilising or unilateral actions that seek to change the status
quo by force or coercion”.
Reaffirming
their commitment and making the assertions more pronounced, the declaration
states, “We express serious concern over recent dangerous and aggressive
actions in the maritime domain. We seek a region where no country dominates and
no country is dominated—one where all countries are free from coercion, and can
exercise their agency to determine their futures. We are united in our
commitment to upholding a stable and open international system, with its strong
support for human rights, the principle of freedom, rule of law, democratic
values, sovereignty and territorial integrity, and peaceful settlement of
disputes and prohibition on the threat or use of force in accordance with
international law, including the UN Charter”.
The initial Paras
of the declaration have been unequivocal about the major traditional security
challenges in the region and reinforced their respect for the regional
institutions- ASEAN, Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) and the Indian Ocean Rim
Association (IORA). In addition to China’s coercive militarisation and flagrant
incursions into the East China Sea, and the South China Sea, the global
conflict in the Middle East has heightened concerns about maritime
security in general and the Indo-Pacific region in particular.
To monitor,
deter and check unlawful behaviour Quad announced the launch of the Maritime
Initiative for Training in the Indo-Pacific (MAITRI) under the Indo-Pacific
Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness (IPMDA). India will launch the
inaugural workshop next year.
Concurrently
to uphold rules-based maritime order in the Indo-Pacific, the Quad
Maritime Legal Dialogue and the Quad Indo-Pacific Logistics Network pilot
project to rapidly and effectively rescue civilians during disasters by
airlifting were launched. With a focus on enhancing interoperability and advancing
maritime security Coast Guards of Quad partner countries plan to launch Quad-at-Sea
Ship Observer Mission in 2025.
Maritime
Security and prosperity are interlinked. Recognising the need for robust and
quality infrastructure to improve connectivity, the Quad intends to hold
the Quad Regional Ports and Transportation Conference in 2025 to be hosted
by India in Mumbai. To secure underwater connectivity networks and make them
China-proof, the Quad is now stepping up to help the Pacific Island countries.
Notable
outcomes of the Quad Cancer Moon Shot on combatting cervical cancer,
preventable cancer. India has committed to providing HPV sampling kits,
detection kits, and vaccines worth $7.5 million and through its $10 million
WHO’s Global Initiative on Digital Health it will offer technical assistance.
Serum Institute of India in partnership with Gavi will support orders of 40
million HPV vaccine doses.
Quad
countries signed an MoU for the Semiconductor Supply Chains Contingency
network. Quad to launch Quad BioExplore Initiative which will support joint
AI-driven exploration of diverse non-human biological data across all four
countries.
US in
Partnership with Indian Institutions plans to establish a first-of-its-kind
open RAN (Radio Access Network) workforce training initiative in South Asia. As
part of the Quad Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Package (Q-CHAMP),
India plans to invest $2 million in new solar projects in Fiji, Comoros,
Madagascar and Seychelles. India has also announced fifty Quad scholarships.
Quad has
taken serious cognisance of the indiscriminate missile firing, “worsening
political, economic, security and humanitarian situation in Myanmar” and called
for swift implementation of the ASEAN-Five Point consensus. It backed the
two-state solution for Israel and condemned terrorism in all forms. The
list now includes the 26/11 Mumbai attacks, the Pathankot attacks and
the October 7, 2023 Hamas terrorist attacks.
Making a
stern note of the Chinese military posturing the SCS, the Quad opposed efforts
to disrupt offshore resource exploitation activities, reemphasised on upholding
freedom of navigation and overflight, reaffirmed that maritime disputes must be
resolved peacefully and highlighted the 2016 Arbitral Award on the SCS. Taking
note of the impact of the Ukraine War on developing countries, the
Quad reiterated, “the need for a comprehensive, just, and lasting peace in line
with international law, consistent with the purposes and principles of the UN
Charter, including respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity”.
Quad backed
the inclusive representation of countries in the reformed Security Council.
Though Biden’s hot mic “(Xi Jinping is) looking to buy himself some diplomatic
space, in my view, to aggressively pursue China’s interest…. (China continues
to) behave aggressively, testing us all across the region on several fronts,
including on economic and technology issues” clearly reflects the US's growing
discomfort with China, the blueprint of the Quad is to be a “global force
for good”.
Clearly, all
other countries in the Quad except India have now forged a security alliance to
confront China. As the traditional security provider of the Indian Ocean
Region, the US’s Indo-Pacific Strategy is incomplete without India. India is
indispensable to counterbalance China. India is very clear about its role in
the Quad.
Deftly
aligning with the Quad’s approach and expectations, India is using the group to
harness opportunities to build its capacities to become a self-reliant
technological power. Augmenting strategic interests and seeking to enhance
capabilities in building a stable, secure and safe maritime front India is
actively engaging in Quad’s maritime initiatives.
Certainly,
the Quad is “here to stay” and “more strategically aligned than ever”. But the
strategic dynamic of the Quad has taken a new turn. The expansive Quad’s agenda
no longer fits the definition of a traditional security forum.
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