Friday, 15 November 2024

Deconstructing China’s Bid to be Global Mediator with Hamas-Fatah Agreement

Two parallel events across the opposite ends of the globe are making waves. Both of them are invariably linked to the ongoing Israeli offensive in Gaza. On July 23rd, China claimed to have successfully brokered a reconciliation agreement between various Palestinian factions. The two days long negotiations resulted in a Beijing Declaration signed by Hamas, Fatah and 12 other Palestinian factions on ‘ending division and strengthening Palestinian Unity’. Fatah was represented by Mahmoud al-Aloul and Mousa Abu Marzouk led Hamas delegation. The Palestinian groups have agreed to form a temporary National Unity Government.

The second major event was pro-Palestinian supporters occupying the Capitol Hill building protesting PM Netanyahu’s Congress address. The protestors burned down the US flag, replaced it with a Palestine flag, vandalised properties and defiled the monuments with“Hamas is coming” and “Free Gaza” graffiti.

As per the details of the declaration, the unity government will exert its authority over all the Palestinian territories including the West Bank, Gaza and al-Quds. It asserted “commitment to the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with al-Quds (Jerusalem) as its capital” according to UN resolutions 181 (1947 resolution on partition) and 2334 (which designated Israeli occupations as illegal). It underscored the Palestinian people’s right to self- determination and the right to resist occupation and to end in accordance with international law1.

The factions that have acceded to the declaration agreed to meet regularly and activate the Unified Temporary Leadership Framework and work towards delivery of humanitarian and medical aid without restriction to the Palestinian people in Gaza and West Bank. Other important clauses of the declaration included- confronting the conspiracies of Israeli occupation and violations against Al-Aqsa Mosque and welcoming the opinion of the International Court of Justice which affirmed the illegitimacy of Israeli settlements. Given the track record of the failed Palestinian reconciliation agreements, the Palestinian factions will implement the agreement clauses with support from Egypt, Algeria, China and Russia. 

The declaration coming at the sensitive time of the Gaza war entering its tenth month has attempted to offer a crucial solution for governance and administration of post-war Gaza war reconstruction and rehabilitation issues. In the process, the declaration has given a fillip to the ‘two-state solution’ advocated by the UN and the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) and increased the influence of the Palestinian Authority and by extension President Mahmoud Abbas. Wang Yi, the Chinese Foreign Minister announced, “The PLO is the sole legitimate authority of the Palestinian people”2. Interestingly, neither Hamas nor PIJ (Palestine Islamic Jihad) are part of the PLO.

The elusive Palestinian unity has stymied the Palestine self-determination aspirations for decades. After Israel vacated Gaza in 2005, in the closely contested 2006 elections, Hamas edged out Fatah narrowly. But after Hamas rejected the Road Map set by the Quartet (US, UN, Russia and EU), the Fatah refused to join the National Unity Government. Soon both factions clashed leading to a civil war resulting in the overthrowing of Fatah completely from Gaza in 2007 and division of the Palestinian territories between the two polities- Hamas ruled Gaza and Fatah led Palestinian Authority rule in the West Bank. As of 2018, seven reconciliation efforts to bring rival Palestine factions together floundered. In 2022, Algeria hosted all 14 Palestinian factions to sign an agreement for holding Parliamentary and Presidential elections within a year of agreement. But nothing much changed on the ground.

Ahead of the Beijing talks, the Israeli Knesset has passed a resolution rejecting the two-state policy and establishment of an independent Palestinian State. The July 18th resolution supported by the opposition parties stated, “The Knesset of Israel firmly opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state west of Jordan. The establishment of a Palestinian state in the heart of the Land of Israel will pose an existential danger to the State of Israel and its citizens, perpetuate the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and destabilise the region”.

Making no secret of Israeli fears, the resolution contended, “It will be a matter of short time until Hamas takes over the Palestinian state and turns it into a radical Islamic terror base, working in coordination with the Iranian-led axis to eliminate the State of Israel”3.

A day later Hamas and PIJ called upon the PLO to drop its recognition of Israel. Though it is unclear whether the Beijing declaration officially recognises Israel, Hamas and Fatah have diverging positions. Hamas accepts a state based on 1967 borders but doesn’t recognise Israel while Fatah-led PA adheres to the peace agreements signed with Israel. Besides, these contradictions, the major drawback of the declaration is the absence of any reference to the election timeline for the formation of the new interim Palestinian government.

Israel has outrightly rejected the agreement and lambasted Mahmoud Abbas for “embracing the murderers and rapists of Hamas”. The US, Western countries have refused to accept any Palestinian government that includes Hamas unless it recognises Israel.

Though the US envisions a role for a reformed PA in governance of Gaza, they are against any role for Hamas while Israel has vowed to crush Hamas after the October 7th terror attack.  The Beijing talks perceived with some sense of relief in some corners are meted with widespread skepticism. Indeed, two parallel mechanisms are being contemplated for the post-war Gazan scenario. The US and Israel are initiating an international mission comprising of Arab States to administer Gaza after the war.

Chinese motivation for steering the Palestinian reconciliation stems from its global ambitions of positioning itself as an alternative. Augured by the 2023 Saudi-Iran reconciliation, Beijing is keenly seizing every opportunity to buttress its influence in the region. Having severed ties with Iran, Washington couldn’t have mediated any negotiations between Iran and Saudi. Similarly, the US couldn’t directly talk with Hamas. In both cases, China successfully used its diplomatic heft to play the role of a mediator. Buoyed by its role in Iran-Saudi normalisation, China proposed a 12-point peace plan for the Ukraine war. But its undisguised allegiances and one-sidedness have toppled its aspirations to be a global mediator.

Fraught with challenges, Palestinian reconciliation has fostered political unity among the various factions. This strengthened their pursuit of a Palestinian state and gave fresh momentum to the two-state policy. By hosting the Palestinian factions, China attempts to play a major role in terms of becoming a representative of Palestinian interests internationally.

Effectively capitalising on its deepening economic engagement, China aspires to play a major role in the Middle East. Defying the reimposed 2018 US sanctions, China imported oil from Iran and continued to expand its influence through economic and diplomatic initiatives.

Known for its cautious approach to geopolitical issues responding to the gruesome October 7th attacks on Israel, in a press conference on October 8th, China remarked, “The fundamental way out of the conflict lies in implementing the two-state solution and establishing an independent State of Palestine”. The following day China stated, “We’re deeply saddened by the civilian casualties and oppose and condemn acts that harm civilians”.

On October 15th in a call with his Saudi counterpart, Wang Yi lambasted Israel’s action in Gaza as “beyond the scope of self-defense” calling it a collective punishment4. Wang Yi for the first time spoke to his Israeli counterpart on October 23 and told China “condemns all acts that harm civilians”.

China refused to condemn Hamas's action and continued its pitch for a two-state solution in all its conversations. Along with Russia, China vetoed the US push for UNSC action on the Israel-Hamas conflict. Reinforcing its pro-Palestinian stand, a longstanding position, Beijing is portraying itself as the messiah of the Palestinian cause.

Wang Yi’s phone call to Iranian counterpart offers China’s explicit stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict. He said, “China supports Islamic countries in strengthening solidarity and coordination and speaking with one voice on the Palestinian question….. China will continue to stand on the side of peace and justice, and support the Palestinian people’s just cause of safeguarding their national rights”.

Given China’s unequivocal backing for Hamas, it shouldn’t be a surprise that Houthis have agreed not to attack Chinese and Russian vessels and pledged a safe passage to their ships as long as they keep away from Israel. Days after this announcement, US officials sought Chinese help to urge Tehran to restrain Houthis and curb attacks on vessels passing through the Red Sea. The US indeed unsuccessfully reached out to counterparts in Beijing to influence Tehran to prevail over Hamas and stop the Gaza war.

In fact, in June Saudi delegation that headed to Beijing to discuss a strategic defence partnership told Chinese diplomats that Riyadh was ready to make concessions to Houthis in exchange for halting attacks on ships heading to and leaving the Saudi ports5.

Since the 2023 Chinese-mediated Saudi and Iran rapprochement, Beijing has demonstrated its sway in the Middle East to the world. China is keen on taking the advantage of strategic low-cost tactic of mediating conflicts to emerge as a major player in global affairs. With no history of military involvement, China is considered less controversial. China is planning to deploy its perceived neutral power status to realise its global ambition of positioning itself as an alternative and counterbalance to the US.

China is making all the right moves. But China’s history of shielding Pakistan, the abettor of terrorism from global censure, upgradation of ties with the Afghan Taliban and acceptance of the credentials of Taliban appointed ambassador has exposed its acquiescence of terrorism. China’s indifference to the scourge of terrorism is further exemplified by the Beijing Declaration that gave legitimacy to Hamas, a designated terrorist organisation.

The Palestinian reconciliation agreement has uncovered China’s double standards. On one hand, China vouched for support to Islamic nations on coordination on the Palestinian issue but back home it unleashes aggressive sinicisation in Xinjiang. Detaining close to 4 million Uighurs China is forcing them to disown their Muslim identity. Make no mistake. Chinese mediation of the Palestinian Unity Government is symbolic and strategic. There can certainly be no two ways about it.

In its bid to position itself as an ally of the Muslim World China incontrovertibly pitched for the two-state solution. With this strategic gambit, China, perhaps has irreversibly roiled its ties with Israel.


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