Strategic Dynamics of India-Bangladesh Partnership

In less than 15 days, Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina who attended the swearing-in ceremony of PM Modi was back in New Delhi for a two-day State visit. With her back to back visits, Hasina has underscored the burgeoning bonhomie of India-Bangladesh strategic partnership. Her visit marks the first incoming visit for the Modi government 3.0.

Relationship with Bangladesh assumes a greater significance in terms of being a country in the immediate neighbourhood with which India shares the longest porous border. This makes the relationship very crucial. With PM Modi and PM Hasina at the helm attempting to transform the partnership through mutual trust and confidence, the bilateral relationship has reached a new strategic dynamic.  

Connected by strong cultural, religious and linguistic moorings, sustaining the relationship against the odds requires great strategic understanding. Managing the relationship from the prism of geopolitics to its impact on the domestic politics in both countries, India-Bangladesh bilateral ties have to be understood in a different strategic spectrum. Other than the elephant in the room China, which has been casting huge influence to rope in countries in India’s vicinity into its orbit, the 2024 general elections in Bangladesh offered a rare insight into global powerplay at work in the region.

The interference of Western actors in the Bangladesh elections became so apparent that PM Hasina came out in the open with all guns blazing. In August 2023, India cautioned the US against encouraging radical elements and excess interference in Bangladesh elections which could potentially throw the region into turmoil¹. Deeming India’s concerns as alleged interference in Bangladesh's opposition has fuelled an “India Out” and “Boycott India” campaign. The bilateral ties, in the recent past thus had to endure this trial by fire.

The US was never in favour of an independent Bangladesh. After its creation, the US wielded great control over the country as the largest foreign investor and the largest market for Bangladesh’s ready-made garments. Bangladesh is also the largest recipient of US assistance in Asia. Given its strategic location, Bangladesh soon found itself battered between two competing powers- the US and China. China lured Bangladesh with investments while the US offered Bangladesh to join the Quad which Dhaka politically declined. Advocating an independent foreign policy, Bangladesh refused to be part of any military alliance.

Ever since, the US has become mistrustful of Hasina’s Awami League and started meddling in domestic affairs including by supporting the opposition Bangladesh National Party (BNP) with Islamist leanings. Being subjected to tested and tried measures of spurning the country at international events, imposing sanctions and visa restrictions on people close to political dispensation and castigating it for human rights, Hasina accused the US of ‘regime change’². The US eventually left nothing to chance in precipitating the political crisis in Bangladesh. US criticism of ‘unfair elections’ in Bangladesh was an extension of the same agenda.

In May, PM Hasina claimed a conspiracy to create a Christian nation like East Timor from parts of Bangladesh and Myanmar. She also stated that “she was offered an easy re-election in January if she permitted a foreign nation to establish an airbase in Bangladesh”. Given the indubitable Western hand at play in India’s recently concluded general elections, the claim has a huge import.

At the 14-party alliance first meeting, PM Hasina said, “Like East Timor, they will carve out a Christian country taking parts of Bangladesh (Chattogram) and Myanmar with a base in the Bay of Bengal”³. Together, these developments hinted at the region being sucked into the geopolitical vortex if nations, especially India and Bangladesh fail to act in cahoots. The name of undisclosed country is the US and the place on which the US set its eyes to establish an airbase is St. Martin’s Island, the southernmost of Bangladesh.

PM Hasina’s claims are the real missing piece in the puzzle of a long-term Christian project in India’s North East that drastically altered the demographics of the region. The mission is creation of a “Zo” State comprising areas of Bangladesh, Myanmar and Mizoram comprising of Kuki-Chin-Mizo people⁴. The call for a putative “Zogam” or homeland of Zos has intensified ever since the turbulent episode of violence in Manipur.

Considering the unwarranted Western criticism of the violence in India’s northeast instigated by the Churches and the rapid Christianisation of the region, the larger plan of carving out a Christian nation from the regions of Myanmar’s Chin State, India’s Mizoram and Bandarban district of Bangladesh do not appear unfounded. The contiguous region belonging to three different countries is inhabited by people who claim a common ethnicity and were converted to Christianity during British rule by missionaries. The demand for a separate state by Kukis of Manipur, recovery of a huge cache of weapons, illegal infiltration of Myanmar Chins and the rampant drug trafficking together vindicate the sinister mission which is underway. 

The mission seemingly replicated the 18th-century Portuguese template in Indonesia that led to the creation of the Christian state of East Timor from Indonesia. An active insurgency movement, silent proselytisation and diplomatic coercion together warrant a greater synergy with neighbouring Bangladesh to stymie the larger game plan. Hence, India’s relationship with Bangladesh has several layers to it.

Unlike other bilateral ties, where a bonhomie between the leaders elicits a positive response, a section of citizens of both countries are not upbeat about the blossoming bilateral ties. They are riled by the failure of the political dispensation to resolve the problems including border killings, cow smuggling, Teesta waters, illegal migration and religious persecution. The unresolved Teesta Waters has further exacerbated their vexation.

Additionally, the bilateral relations are further muddied by the looming China component to it. As the largest trading partner and largest FDI source, China deepened economic cooperation with Bangladesh. Bangladesh which sources most of its defence supplies from Beijing has allowed the latter to build a secret submarine base in Pekua, Cox Bazar. Bangladesh’s enhanced defence cooperation is swiftly solidifying the presence and influence of China in the region. PM Hasina’s Delhi trip ahead of her Chinese visit has several connotations to it as Bangladesh is a party to China’s BRI. Begum Khaleda Zia has signed defence pact with China.

Hence, notwithstanding public disgruntlement over border issues, Indian leadership is actively engaging Bangladesh to keep China at bay and to take a concerted stand against foreign (western) machinations. Imbuing a development vision and being cognisant of the complex geopolitical factors at play Bangladesh’s leadership is equally keen on cementing the partnership which can be mutually beneficial for both countries.

In the past year, leaders of both countries have met 10 times the frequency of interaction symbolise a deepening relationship. Standing by the statement “India is our major neighbour, trusted friend and regional partner”, PM Hasina made her first state visit to New Delhi after getting re-elected in January 2024⁵.

Giving a new direction, new substance and new impetus for a futuristic partnership, leaders have jointly agreed to the “India-Bangladesh Shared Vision for Future: Enhanced Connectivity, Commerce and Collaboration for Shared Prosperity”. The vision documents seek to realise the developmental vision of both countries- Viksit Bharat 2047 and Smart Bangladesh vision of 2041. Additionally, the two Sides have agreed on “Shared Vision for India-Bangladesh Digital Partnership” and “Green Partnership for a Sustainable Future”⁶.

Countries have agreed to intensify engagement on counter-terrorism, counter-radicalisation and peaceful management of land border. As part of the River Management, which is an integral aspect of the bilateral partnership, a Technical Committee is set to initiate discussions on the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty of 1996.

Since 2020, China expressed interest in the Teesta River management project to gain entry into the region, a tri-country junction and close to India’s chicken neck. China also plans to collect crucial hydrological data about the Himalayan Rivers which is of immense strategic value. To this end, Bangladesh sought a $1 billion loan from China. With crucial security interests at stake, India offered a counter-proposal to help Bangladesh with the project that involves dredging, building of reservoirs and construction of modern townships along the riverbed.

Bangladesh is at the converging point of India’s “neighbourhood first”, “Act East Policy”, “SAGAR Doctrine”, “Indo-Pacific policy”⁷. It is also an indispensable partner in the development of India’s northeast region. The country has now joined India’s Indo-Pacific Ocean Initiative. Given its convergent vision for the Indo-Pacific Bangladesh pledged to co-lead the ‘Disaster Risk Reduction and Management’ pillar with India. Together the countries expressed interest in collaborating to mitigate disaster risk, build disaster-resilient infrastructure and contribute to shared maritime region

To this end, countries renewed the MoU on disaster management as well. Both Sides agreed to jointly build a small satellite, “Maitri Satellite” for Bangladesh on India’s launch vehicle and intensify defence cooperation regarding modernisation of forces. Countries signed MoUs on space technology, maritime cooperation and blue economy, Oceanography, fisheries, cooperation in military education and health⁸. Fostering sub-regional power trade, India agreed to allow export of 40 MW of power from Nepal to Bangladesh through its grid. India has also assured a smooth and uninterrupted supply of essentials like Onion, Sugar and Wheat.

Connectivity, one of the strategic pillars was the major plank of bilateral discussions. Connectivity besides enhancing economic opportunities will pave the way for seamless integration. In the past decade, countries have restored the pre-1965 cross-border railway connectivity. Leaders have announced a passenger train between Rajshahi and Kolkata with sub-regional connectivity with Bhutan. A bus service between Kolkata and Chittagong is also launched. India vowed support for building the Inland Container Port in Bangladesh’s Sirajgunj.

Economic cooperation is key to robust partnership. Giving a fillip to the same, countries commenced trade transactions in Rupee. Both sides agreed to start negotiations on the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) and the operationalisation of two Special Economic Zones in Mongla and Mirsharai. PM Modi has announced medical e-visas and to facilitate this, India has announced to opening new Indian Assistant High Commission at Rangapur.

India is Bangladesh’s largest export destination, second largest trading partner and largest developmental partner. Now, countries plan to bolster development cooperation by concluding a new Framework Agreement for Development Partnership.

Amid China’s aggressive overtures to Bangladesh, affirming India’s commitment to ‘neighbourhood first’, New Delhi is developing an all-encompassing development partnership with Bangladesh. Reciprocative gestures of Bangladeshi leadership committed to a Shared Vision for the Future have infused trust and strengthened the ties. Redefining the contours of the partnership, leaders of both countries are building a reliable, “future-ready partnership” for a stable South Asia.

 

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