Modi’s Guyana Visit: Bolstering Shared History for A Shared Future

On the final leg of his three-nation visit, PM Modi arrived in Georgetown, marking the first visit by an Indian Prime Minister to Guyana in 56 years. Making up more than 40% of the Guyanese population, the people of Indian origin, separated by huge distances sharing similar cultural values hold India in high esteem. The British imported Indians as indentured labour to Guyana 186 years ago. They form one of the “Oldest Diasporas” to have migrated from India.

To commemorate the high-level visit of an Indian PM, breaking diplomatic protocol, Guyana President Mohammed Irfaan Ali, PM Mark Anthony Philips, and the entire cabinet received PM Modi at the airport. A ceremonial welcome was also extended at the airport.

PM of Grenada, Dicken Mitchell, the co-chair of the 2^nd India-CARICOM Summit, and Barbados PM Mia also received PM Modi at the airport. As a mark of great honour, the Mayor of Georgetown presented the key to the city of Georgetown to PM Modi.

The South American country began to receive marked global attention since the discovery of significant oil reserves offshore Guyana by Exxon Mobil in 2015 in the Stabroek block. With a staggering 62.3% real GDP growth hike, in 2022, the impact of the increased oil production began to kick in. With an annual average of 6,45,000 b/d production, the third largest by a non-OPEC nation, after the US and Brazil, Guyana’s economic trajectory surged. Over the years, Guyana has partnered with the US and Chinese companies in its offshore explorations. Currently, Exxon Mobil has 45% stakes and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has 25% stakes in the Stabroek block.

The economic boom has potentially changed the economic outlook of Guyana, one of the poorest countries in the Western Hemisphere. With the discovery of the oil deposits, Venezuela intensified its claims over the oil-rich Essequibo territory that accounts for two-thirds of Guyana. Through relentless military buildup, Venezuela has ratcheted up tensions in the region. In December 2023, holding a non-binding referendum in December 2023, Venezuela heightened the threats to annex the region.

Oil discovery has opened up new opportunities for development and investment. Endowed with rich reserves of gold, diamond and bauxite, Guyana is planning to expand mining significantly. Besides, the US, with a marked presence in Latin America, China a partner in oil exploration is an active player in Guyana. Beijing has steadily cemented ties with Guyana inking a slew of infrastructure development projects.

Guyana’s ties with China can be traced to 1972 when the country’s first President Arthur Raymond Chung of Chinese-descent established diplomatic ties with Beijing. Ever since, China's presence increased in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Keen to attract diverse investments, Ali in response to a query on Guyana-China bilateral ties said, “We see China as an important part of the energy equation of our country. We continue to encourage China, as we encourage everyone, to participate fully in the bidding process of this energy platform that we are developing at a global scale”. Post oil discovery, toying with several options, President Ali encouraged bids and investments from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE and the UK. He reposed an interest in strengthening ties with his ancestral country, India.

Though India and Guyana established diplomatic ties in 1966, New Delhi hardly invested any diplomatic capital to rejuvenate ties with a region populated dominantly by people of Indian descent. India regularly invited Guyanese leaders for the Pravasi Bharatiya Diwas and PM Modi met the leaders along the sidelines of the BRICS Summit in Fortaleza, Brazil and UNGA annual meetings. Most recently, India bestowed the Pravasi Bharatiya Samman Award, the highest award for overseas Indians on President Irfaan Ali during his visit as Chief Guest for the 2023 Pravasi Bharatiya Divas.  While India attempted to maintain a strong cultural connect, it hasn’t focused much on bringing to bear the untapped potential of broadening ties with Guyana.

India-Guyana ties registered a marked uptick in the past couple of years. In April 2023, India delivered the GRSE-build ferry MA Lisha commissioned by Guyana. The launch renewed the 185-year-old connection with Guyana when Indians departed from the shores of Kolkata. Both countries commenced negotiations on a five-year agreement for oil supplies.

Guyana is in the throes of a resource boom. With 11 billion barrels of proven offshore petrol reserves, India, the third largest consumer of oil can circumvent uncertainties of supply chains by partnering with Guyana in terms of exploration, refining and tech support. This potential win-win situation can be mutually beneficial. Through prospective bids for exploration, India can gain entry into a region dominated by China and the US.

Guyana’s economic fortunes have escalated conflicting claims over Guyana’s maritime waters by Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela and Surinam. This has reinforced the need for bolstering the country’s defences. A strong defence cooperation with India can be beneficial to Guyana.

PM Modi held restricted and delegation-level meetings with President Ali to take stock of the bilateral ties. In all, India and Guyana signed 10 MoUs on cooperation in the hydrocarbon sector; agriculture and allied sectors; cultural exchange programme; recognition of Indian Pharmacopoeia regulations; implementation of Jan Aushadi Scheme; cooperation in medical products; INDIA STACK; deployment of UPI like system; broadcasting and training of defence forces.

PM Modi paid homage at the Arrival Monument, visited the Arya Samaj Monument and Saraswati Vidya Niketan. Infusing a fresh momentum to the ancestral connect, PM Modi addressed a gathering of the Indian Community and called them “Rashtradoots”- ‘the ambassadors of Indian culture and values’. Speaking about Cricket, an interest that binds India and Guyana, PM Modi interacted with famous cricketers of Guyana, including Clive Lloyd, Alvin Kallicharran, Shiv Narayan Chanderpaul, Devendra Bishoo, Hetmyer.

Receiving the ‘Order of Excellence’, the highest national award of Guyana, PM Modi said, “This honour does not only belong to me but also to 1.4 billion Indians”. Hosted to a seven-curry traditional meal by the President, PM Modi thanked him for the hospitality and planted a sapling as part of “Ek Ped Maa Ke Naam”. 

Latin America is a Chinese den and Guyana is a part of the BRI. As a late entrant into the region, emphasising Indian foreign policy attributes, PM Modi addressing the special session of Guyana Parliament said, “We have always stayed away from the feeling of occupying resources and grabbing resources. I believe be it land or sea, these shouldn’t be objects of conflict but of universal cooperation”. Expounding India's approach, he said, “If even one country, even one region is left behind, then our global goals will never be achieved. That is why India says -- every nation matters”.

Speaking on geopolitical tensions, he noted, “Today there are many challenges like terrorism, drugs, cybercrime, and only by fighting them we will be able to improve the future of our future generations. And, this is possible only when we give centre stage to Democracy First- Humanity First”.

This is the time for the Global South awakening and for developing countries to stay united. “There is an opportunity for us to work together and create a new global order. India has always worked on the basis of trust, transparency and principles. India stood for global peace and development”.

In his tightly packed Guyana visit, PM Modi also co-chaired the 2^nd India-CARICOM Summit along with PM Dicken Mitchell of Grenada, the current chair.  The Summit was attended by heads of 11 member states and foreign ministers of 3 countries.

CARICOM (Caribbean Community) with headquarters at Georgetown was established in 1973 to promote economic integration and cooperation comprising 20 countries. It has 15 Member states (Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Jamaica, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, Monserrat, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago) and 5 Associated States (Eel, Bermuda, Cayman Islands, British Virgin Islands, Turks and Caicos Islands). The first India-CARICOM Summit was held along the sidelines of UNGA in New York in September 2019.

In his opening remarks, PM Modi said, “Relations between India and CARICOM countries are based on our shared past experiences, our shared present-day needs and our shared aspirations for the future”. He enlisted the seven pillars of CARICOM- C for Capacity Building; A for Agriculture and food security; R for Renewable Energy and Climate Change; I for Innovation, Technology and Trade; C for Cricket and Culture; O for Ocean Economy and Maritime Security and M for Medicine and Health Care. All of the pillars of cooperation encompass the issues that have relevance to CARICOM.

By standing shoulder to shoulder in times of real need, especially during health emergencies and natural disasters, India earned the acclaim of a reliable partner. In recognition of India’s generous gift of vaccines and timely medical assistance at the height of COVID, the Commonwealth of Dominica conferred the highest national award, the Dominica Award of Honour on PM Modi. Expressing gratitude for India’s timely help Barbados along honoured PM Modi with an Honorary Order of Excellence.

During the summit, India proposed to popularise yoga to tackle lifestyle diseases, increase 1000 Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation (ITEC) Scholarships for the next five years and organise Jaipur foot camps annually. India pledged to promote women’s cricket and supply passenger vessels and ferries for seamless transport in these Small Island Nations. Indeed, PM Modi assured that “For India, you are not Small Island States but Large Ocean Countries” and promised to enhance cooperation on drug trafficking, piracy, illegal fishing and human trafficking and to work together on maritime domain mapping and hydrography. 

India has offered to establish a Forensic Centre for CARICOM along the lines of India’s “i-GOT KARMAYOGI Portal” and set up Drug Testing Centres, ‘Bhishma’ mobile hospitals, provide the Siddharth Two cancer therapy machine developed in India and, Jan Aushadi Centres.

Along the sidelines of the Summit, PM Modi met leaders of Guyana, Dominica, Bahamas, Trinidad & Tobago, Suriname, Barbados, Antigua & Barbuda, Grenada & St. Lucia. Evolving a framework that is in sync with the felt needs of CARICOM, PM Modi demonstrated an emphatic understanding of the concerns of countries of the Global South.

A strong bilateral partnership between India and Guyana can be mutually beneficial. While Guyana can be a solution to India’s quest for energy security, the latter can tap into India’s expertise and political heft to navigate through the regional challenges amid its recent economic boom. Invoking historical connections and expanding the arenas of cooperation, PM Modi has revitalised and rejuvenated bilateral relations with Guyana, which can be India’s gateway to the Latin American and Caribbean region.

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Rio G20 Summit: PM Modi’s Deft Development Diplomacy in Action

Pulling off a near-impossible task of unanimous consensus with the Delhi declaration, India has certainly set a high benchmark for Brazil. With the theme of “Building a Just World and Sustainable Planet”, Brazil set the course for the 19^th edition of the G20 Summit held on November 18-19 in Rio de Janeiro. Comprising 19 countries and two regional bodies- the European Union and the African Union, G20 represents around 85% of the global economy and two-thirds of the world population. The summit focussed on three core aspects- fight against hunger, poverty and inequality; sustainable development, energy transition, climate change and reforms in global governance.

In tune with the objectives of the theme, Brazilian President Incio Lula da Silva launched the Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty. The initiative has received support from over 81 countries and 26 international organisations. With plans to end hunger pangs of nearly 773 million will go down as a great legacy project of Brazil. Brazil which received the Presidency baton from India more or less prioritised the aspects that New Delhi highlighted.

India adeptly customised the G20 agenda to be more inclusive, and human-centric. India announced the Global Biofuel Alliance and recommended Mission LiFE, a collective effort for climate preservation. Rio Summit has also rightly focussed on global issues and endeavoured to accommodate the concerns of the Global South, which India prioritised under its leadership.

The Brazilian framework that highlighted the Global South's inequalities and concerns, was rich in intent but failed to obtain a consensus over a slew of issues. The geopolitical uncertainties exacerbated by the raging wars have intensified the global divide. This has become a stumbling block in arriving at a consensus at the Rio Summit.

The declaration reiterated, “unwavering commitment to the vision of the two-state solution where Israel and a Palestinian State live side by side in peace within secure and recognised borders, consistent with international law and relevant UN resolutions”. It called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon and the safe return of citizens to their homes on either side of the blue line. But the declaration had no mention of the Israeli hostages held captive by the Hamas.

With regards to the Ukraine war, the declaration welcomed “all relevant and constructive initiatives that support a comprehensive, just, and durable peace, upholding all the Purposes and Principles of the UN Charter for the promotion of peaceful, friendly, and good neighbourly relations among nations”. The declaration also proposed a 2% tax on super-rich billionaires.

Reiterating the New Delhi Declaration, the Rio Summit acknowledged “the need for rapidly and substantially scaling up climate finance from billions to trillions from all sources”. By immaculately conducting the G20 Summit, India has set the bar high and lent a new directionality. Sustaining that continuity, Brazil has attempted to carry forward India’s people-centric agenda.

As part of the Troika- a group of outgoing, present and incoming presidencies, Indian leadership was something Brazil tried to emulate especially in negotiations on geopolitics.  The current troika comprising developing countries gave G20 more legitimacy in terms of bringing to the fore the concerns, challenges and priorities of developing countries.

India which has led from the front in giving G20 a new framework has reiterated its commitment to sustainable development and hailed the Rio Summit that resonated India’s call for “One Earth, One Family and One Future”. Building on the New Delhi Declaration and the outcomes of the Voice of the Global South Summits, PM Modi spoke about India’s efforts to pull 250 million people out of poverty. He listed the government’s initiatives of providing food grains, free of cost to 800 million and medical insurance to 500 million people apart from the 60 million senior citizens who are benefitting from the free health insurance.

At the G20 Session on “Social Inclusion and the Fight Against Hunger and Poverty”, Modi highlighted institutional credit worth 300 billion for farmers, crop insurance worth $20 billion availed by over 40 million farmers and bank loans to over 300 million women entrepreneurs. 

Along with ensuring food security through the right combination of natural farming and advanced technologies, India is also focussing on the nutritional needs of school-going children. Underscoring India’s approach of “Back to Basics and March to Future” PM Modi welcomed Brazil’s Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty and mentioned India’s humanitarian assistance to Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Underlining the perilous impact on Food, Fuel and Fertiliser security of countries of the Global South by the ongoing wars, PM Modi elaborated on India’s sustainable agricultural practices, promotion of Sri Ann or Millets, development of over 2000 climate-resilient crop varieties and Digital Agriculture Mission.

Addressing the session on “Sustainable Development and Energy Transition”, PM Modi highlighted India’s climate action credentials for being the first G20 country to meet its Paris commitments. India has set a target of 500 GW of renewable energy by 2030 of which it has already achieved 200 GW. India adopted the Varanasi Action Plan at the 2023 G20 summit where the group has resolved to triple renewable energy production and double the energy efficiency rate by 2030.

PM Modi touched upon India’s global initiatives- International Solar Alliance, One Sun One World One Grid, Global Biofuel Alliance, Green Hydrogen Innovation Centre, One Tree For Mother campaign and Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure Initiative (CDRI) with a special focus on post-disaster reconstruction for the Small Island Nations and urged nations to join Global Development Compact launched at the 3^rd Global South Summit.

PM Modi also participated in a programme on Digital Public Infrastructure, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Data for Governance (DfG) held along the sidelines of Rio G20 and offered to share India’s expertise in using digital technology and AI. Preparing for the global challenges of the 21^st century, a sure-footed India is employing the transformative potential of these advanced technologies to accelerate SDG goals and rapidly enhance lives.

India has steadily built a digital infrastructure that has empowered people living in the hinterlands and integrated them into the globalised world. Digital connectivity has changed the governance system phenomenally, especially in terms of the delivery of payments and benefits to the needy. Given the immense potential of digital technologies to advance inclusive development objectives, the G20 Troika -India, Brazil and South Africa have launched a landmark joint declaration on DPI, AI and DfG. The Troika also recalled the adoption of the Global Digital Compact at the UN Summit of the Future.

Donning the role of an affirmative voice of the Global South, offering prescriptive solutions for the global challenges, India is unambiguously projecting itself as the voice of the Global South. Despite Beijing’s reservations to acknowledge India’s rising stature, India’s people-centric approach for inclusive development is now finding increased acceptance from developed and developing countries.

At a time when the world is witnessing intense global politicking and rapidly changing power dynamics, India is unequivocally asserting its commitment to sustainable development, a cornerstone for the progressive economic growth of the developing world. India’s benign actions and espousal of inclusive development are getting favourable recognition.

Incidentally, the G20 family picture devoid of the US as ambulating sleepy Joe missed the photo and the Troika of developing nations occupying the centre stage mirrored the contemporary power restructuring aptly. A missing-in-action US having failed to provide much-needed leadership to the developing world can’t expect to be in the driver’s seat.

Global multilateral institutions need a serious revamp. Despite a growing chorus for reforms, the First World is still reluctant to revive 20th-century organisations. The First World’s cavalier approach to increasing growth inequalities is widening the divide and deepening the chasms. Through increased engagement, developmental partnerships and visionary initiatives, India after raising the stature of the G20 summit under its Presidency, is spearheading the change with collaborative coalitions.

Besides hogging the limelight with active participation in developmental initiatives, PM Modi has revitalised ties with Australia, held the annual summit and forged a renewable energy partnership. He announced the Joint Strategic Action Plan (2025-29) outlining the vision for five years with Italy. PM Modi also congratulated and met for the first time, the UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, exchanged views on regional international issues with France President Emmanuel Macron, took stock of bilateral relations with Norwegian PM Jonas Ghar Store, met Portuguese PM Luis Montenegro for the first time and agreed to jointly celebrate the 50^th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties in 2025. Congratulating Indonesia President Prabawo Subianto on his election, PM Modi reaffirmed his commitment to strengthening bilateral relations.

PM Modi also met Argentine President Javier Milei and conveyed warm wishes on assuming the office. In his first meeting with Chilean President Gabriel Boric Font, PM Modi explored the possibilities of cooperation in traditional medicine, education and culture. Along the margins of the summit, PM Modi met Brazilian President Lula, thanked him for the hospitality and congratulated him on the success of Brazil’s G20 and IBSA Presidencies.

Given India’s commendable progress in terms of poverty alleviation, India’s success stories have become a beacon of hope for the developing world. Deftly managing its geopolitical pursuits along with developmental pledges PM Modi shined at the Rio G20 Summit and unassailably positioned India as the Voice of the Global South. The scale of diplomatic engagements of Modi and the extensive outreach carried out along the sidelines of the G20 Summit is worthy of commendation.

 

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India’s Subtle, Yet Clear-Sighted South China Sea Approach

China’s expansive claims have brought yet another geographical arena to the brink of severe confrontation. The region in context is the South China Sea. Laying claims to over 90% of the South China Sea, China completely usurped the region undermining the rights of six countries- the Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia and Taiwan.

In 2016, the Philippines took the matter to the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) which invalidated the Chinese claims over the Western Philippines Sea which falls within 200 nautical miles of the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Notwithstanding the ruling, Beijing continued to advocate its Nine-Dash Line Doctrine. President Rodrigue Duterte's pragmatic China policy, setting aside the tribunal ruling in the immediate aftermath made Beijing more assertive. His successor, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr recalibrated the foreign policy priorities and began diversifying ties with countries and firmed up relationship with the US. This shift was marked by increased confrontations on the maritime front, which at times are turning fatal. Water cannon attacks on the Philippines vessels carrying supplies to BRP Sierre Madre, a warship housing soldiers by the Chinese Coast Guards have raised tension between both countries.  The ship was intentionally grounded in 1999 to assert the sovereignty of the Philippines.

Amid the rising diplomatic friction, the Philippines first showed interest in BrahMos in 2019. In 2022, Manila signed a military contract with New Delhi for the delivery of three batteries of anti-ship variant BrahMos. Alongside, the Philippines reinvigorated a Mutual Defence Treaty alliance with the US that suffered neglect under the Duterte regime. To counter Chinese belligerence, the Philippines in 2023 announced four additional bases under the Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) taking the expansion to a total of nine sites on a rotational basis.

Parallelly, countries launched the largest joint military exercise, Balikatan, which included novel boat-sinking skills as well. China perceived the renewed agreement with the US with suspicion and the collision course between the Chinese Coast Guards, Filipino personnel and fishermen increased. Marcos Jr also signed a defence agreement with Japan and announced joint drills with Australia. Given, Chinese unrelenting provocations, these ties eventually matured into a mini lateral, Squad, in April 2024.

Other than the Pacific partners, the Philippines started including India in its strategic calculus. At the 4^th India-Philippines Joint Commission on Bilateral Cooperation, (JCBC) countries agreed to strengthen defence engagement and maritime cooperation, especially in defence training and procurement of defence equipment¹. In June 2020, immediately after the Galwan incident, the Indian Navy deployed a ship to the SCS to demonstrate its deterrence capabilities. Indeed, the Indian Navy also deployed frontline vessels along the Malacca Straits, the region from where Chinese vessels enter the India Ocean Region (IOR)².

At the 5^th edition of JCBC in 2023, countries underlined the “need for peaceful settlement of disputes and for adherence to international law, especially UNCLOS and the 2016 Arbitral Award on the South China Sea”³. China’s assertive posture and territorial claims along the LAC and the SCS have substantially disrupted the stability of the region. Shedding customary caution, India took a nuanced dig at China to respect international law.

China’s aggressive posturing has culminated in India revamping the “Act East Policy” and strengthening security partnerships with ASEAN countries. India has elevated its relationship with ASEAN countries to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in 2022 and held the inaugural maritime exercises in 2023 aligning with the strategy of active engagement with the Indo-Pacific region. This served India’s twin-pronged approach of commitment to regional security and of becoming a potential alternative to Chinese dominance and its unilateral actions.

India’s principled approach besides adhering to the international maritime order potentially challenges China’s dominance in the South China Sea region. While Chinese provocations and dangerous escalations intensified since 2023 with Chinese vessels blocking and ramming the Philippines ship taking supplies to the Second Thomas Shoal, by rescuing the Filipino sailors India has burnished its credentials as a responsible stakeholder in the region. In response to the Houthi Red Sea attacks, the US Navy and 40 other navies launched “Operation Prosperity Guardian” to ensure the safe passage of vessels through the troubled waters.  

India declined the invitation to join the US initiative but instead, to ‘secure the seas’ and protect the maritime community, launched “Operation Sankalp”. Within 100 days, India undertook 1000 boarding operations, saved 110 people, escorted 15 lakh tonnes of essential commodities, seized 3000 kg narcotics and assured 450 Merchant Vessels (MV)s of Indian presence⁴.

President Marcos expressed gratitude to India during EAM Jaishankar’s visit to Manila in March for the swift rescue operations for rescuing the crew which included Filipinos on the hijacked vessel MV Confidence⁴. The Indian Navy’s rescue missions have earned the goodwill of countries for their proactive maritime security operations. According to an estimate, over a quarter of seafarers deployed on international shipping vessels are Filipinos. In November 2023, India offered the Philippine Coast Guard seven helicopters for rescue operations.

Convergence of common concerns, Chinese maritime activism and shared interests has brought India and the South China Sea nations closer. With its active role as the “First Responder”, India is steadily buttressing its stature as a “Preferred Security Partner” in the region.

Indeed, Jaishankar’s Manila visit amid increasing Philippines-China tensions and ahead of the delivery of the BrahMos missiles had an unmissable strategic dimension to it. It came at a time when Manila summoned the Chinese ambassador for Beijing’s “aggressive actions”. Reiterating India’s firm support to the Philippines “for upholding its national sovereignty”, Jaishankar called for “strict adherence to rules-based order… in its entirety both in letter and spirit”. India’s statement has riled China which shot back saying, that in the maritime issues between the two countries, a third country has no right to interfere. To which, India remarked- “as a nation deeply invested in the region because of its Act East Policy and Indo-Pacific Vision, India follows all developments with great interest”⁵.

Besides the ongoing standoff that has entered the fifth year, Chinese has increased its presence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). China is making forays into the region by deploying spy ships under the guise of research vessels with increased periodicity. Nearly every Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) announcement in India is accompanied by a Chinese vessel deployment close to Indian waters. Paying back in the same coin, India is now no longer reticent in entering the belligerent waters of the SCS. Upgrading defence ties with ASEAN countries like Singapore, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines, India is now strengthening engagement with joint drills, port calls and workshops.

As a part of Operational Deployment to the South China Sea, three Indian Navy ships- INS Delhi, a guided missile destroyer armed with Module Launcher for BrahMos missile; INS Shakti, a Deepak-class fleet Tanker; INS Kiltan, a Kamorta class anti-submarine warfare corvette built by the GRSE, visited the region reaffirming India’s commitment to maritime stability and security. The deployment almost escaped the notice of the Chinese authorities engrossed in carrying out “punishment drills” in the Taiwan Straits, which is a subtle message to China about the importance of adhering to international norms.

Boasting of largest navy, even surpassing the US while China is consumed by bullying smaller neighbours, the humble Indian Navy’s unflinching resolve with 150 ships and submarines to safeguard the maritime interests of the region is truly phenomenal. India’s overarching principle of providing security and thwarting maritime threats is widely appreciated by the Indo-Pacific littorals.

Not intended to provoke, the deployment, an attempt to reach out to Southeast Asian nations would buttress India’s role as a reliable security provider. With China at loggerheads with the South China Sea neighbours through its “grey zone tactics”, India’s commitment to coordinated action to maintain peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region is discreetly evident.

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Gearing up for a Trump 2.0

The palpable enthusiasm in India over Donald Trump’s historic comeback is unmissable. Newsagencies across the world have published a multitude of opEds on the potential impact of Trump’s re-election. The unprecedented electoral mandate of Trump garnering 312 electoral votes against Kamala Harris 224 defied the propaganda of a tight race. This turned out to be yet another case of the media and the leftist ecosystem blooper that dismally failed to gauge the public mood.

While a sense of shock overwhelmed certain influential sections of the American community, a vast majority have been upbeat about the change. The unequal benefits of globalisation and its lopsided impact have stirred up a sense of nationalism. This is reflected in the voting trend across nations where populist leaders are riding back to power. People are now very clear about their choices and their expectations from their leaders. Any leader demonstrating a firm conviction to make people’s lives better and to address the problems that matter to them most is voted back.

Trump’s re-election and the concomitant change of guard has disconcerted several nations. But India is no longer anxious about the US Presidential outcome. Indeed, it is geared up for any kind of change. PM Modi effortlessly forged friendly ties with Obama during his first term, later with Trump and then Biden. Indeed, PM Modi’s phone call was among the first three congratulatory calls that President-Elect Trump had responded to. Indians are slowly and steadily prepping up for all kinds of scenarios. Investing more political energy and diplomatic capital New Delhi has learnt to engage with diverse actors of the US polity. New Delhi is hardly perturbed by the outcome and confidently looking forward to working with the new administration.

More than the administrative readiness, an array of developments changed the Indian perception of the US led by the liberal Biden administration. Though the strategic partnership remained strong, marked dissensions and indirect censure have created fissures that have blighted goodwill. Despite the strong convergence over a slew of issues, there were signs of two nations drifting apart. The moral policing, the self-asserting “either you are with us or against us” reeking of unpretentious supercilious approach has managed to seed mistrust.

Any political dispensation at the helm US is known to wield power decisively but liberal administration with its unrealistic demand of a complete alignment with its values has miffed India. India, the world’s largest democracy with emblematic peaceful transfer of power resented the perpetual propaganda of ‘democratic backsliding’. Flagrant attempts to weaken and undermine democratic institutions in India in cahoots with the liberal ecosystem, civil society organisations and international organisations have irked the country.

Blatant interference in domestic affairs coupled with an extensive overreach with the Break India Forces, dissidents and vested political groups has eroded the cordiality. Undisguised endeavours to bring down the political dispensation and replace it with a plaint administration have exposed the US strategic aims for the region. Incidentally, a dramatic democratic coup that unfolded in India’s backyard has conformed to its worst fears. The open rebuke of India’s “strategic autonomy”, platforming of anti-Indian voices and extensive courting of political rivals has nearly paralysed the relationship.

Playing second fiddle to Canada’s baseless allegations, concocting a murder attempt on a designated terrorist and unleashing the deep state asset to silence India and to toe its line, the Biden administration has plumbed to new depths of undermining the strategic partnership. The double standards and intimidatory tactics on full display have uncannily unravelled the US hegemony.

With geo-strategic convergences, burgeoning economic engagement, defence cooperation and advanced technology collaboration at the heart of the relationship, the US has been India’s valued partner. This understanding has transformed the India-US relationship into a “Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership.” Hence, notwithstanding the internal dynamics, India has been steadily ratcheting up its engagement with the US.

However, India is also aware of the US administration’s ‘unsentimental’ approach to leveraging power in pursuit of American objectives. Be it Democrat or Republican, the dispensation at the helm would always be guided by their strategic interests. But a change of guard is bound to bring about structural changes. Trump who rode back to power with a promise of revamping the US regulatory framework is expected to initiate some radical reforms.

Trump’s first regime has been intensely transactional. But nations, are approvingly welcoming of his give-and-take approach over the Biden administration’s hypocrisy, double standards and the penchant to modify and tweak the existing frameworks. The stark parallels between the two regimes have been so vivid for India as the country could still recall, Trump’s response to a question at a Presser in New Delhi.

On his State visit to India in February 2020 amid the heightened protests on the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), Trump declined to comment on the citizenship legislation calling it an “internal matter”. He expressed hope that India could deal with it and said, “It is for India to do, and hopefully they will do the right thing”. These remarks made an indelible impression on the Indian psyche.

Ahead of the Presidential polls, extending Diwali greetings to the Indian community, Trump promised to “protect Hindu Americans against the anti-religion agenda of the radical left. We will fight for your freedom. Under my administration, we will also strengthen our great partnership with India and my good friend, Prime Minister Modi”.

Later in his post on Truth Social that went viral, Trump said, “I strongly condemn the barbaric violence against Hindus, Christians, and other minorities who are getting attacked and looted by mobs in Bangladesh, which remains in a total state of chaos. It would have never happened on my watch. Kamala and Joe have ignored Hindus across the world and in America. They have been a disaster from Israel to Ukraine to our own Southern Border, but we will Make America Strong Again and bring back Peace through Strength”. While critics might dismiss it as a political manoeuvre and a bid to court the potential Hindu-American voters, he became the first US politician to speak up against the atrocities committed against the Hindus.

The post which doubly highlighted the selective outrage of the liberals and the invisible American hand in the Bangladeshi crisis has signalled his commitment to reverse the machinations that turned Bangladesh into a mess and stoked regional instability.

Trump’s statement came at a time when Brampton Hindu Sabha Temple was attacked by Khalistanis. This incident underscored the threats faced by the Hindu community in Canada. Instructively, Khalistanis are courted by the administration in the US and Canada for strategic and political gains. Trump’s tweet in support of Hindus thus, made a deep impact.

Trump’s hard stance on illegal migration including a blueprint for the swift removal of around 20 million illegals has set a precedent for India, grappling with hundreds of millions of infiltrators. Trump's initiative could potentially alleviate India’s trepidation of a Western censure over the deportation of illegal migrants.

Biden administration’s insistence on acceding to the Western definition of democratic values has dented the partnership. The dominating influence of the deep state has created cracks in India-US ties.

India has now its task clearly laid out. It can’t take Trump for granted as his expectations in terms of reciprocation are exacting. Indo-US strategic ties reached new heights under Trump with countries signing key agreements like- Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA), Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) and Industrial Security Annex (ISA). India was elevated to Strategic Trade Authorisation (STA-1) status. However, he also revoked the Generalised System of Preference (GSP) for India.

Trump revived Quad with security cooperation as a guiding plank. He renamed the US Pacific Command to the US Indo-Pacific Command and popularised the Indo-Pacific construct. Consequently, the US recognised India as a major pillar of cooperation in the region. Biden elevated the Quad engagement to the leadership level but substantially diluted the security aspect and turned it into a non-military regional coalition. With Trump back in the seat, the Republican hawks might course correct the Quad agenda.

Indeed, the new appointees of the Trump team unequivocal about China’s threat while favourably pro-India, would expect New Delhi to play an active role in the Indo-Pacific security aspect. Curbing China’s expansionism in the Indo-Pacific will be a priority. To restrain an authoritarian China, the US might pressurise India to enter into a security agreement. Containing China is undeniably a welcome move for India. But as the only Quad partner with territorial border disputes with China, New Delhi will be forced to deal with the strategic dilemma sooner than later.

But by and large, wading through a web of sanctions, countries are pinning hopes on Trump who pledged to end Ukraine and resolve the West Asia crisis. At the same time, they are even figuring out ways to manage his inescapable tariff regime.

As the most powerful country, the regime change in the US is bound to have a ripple effect on the international system. India is no exception. As a strategic partner with interlinked geopolitical and geoeconomic interests, India must renew ties with the US to lay a strong foundation for a multipolar Asia and the emergence of a multipolar world.

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Indo-German Strategic Reset to Build on Synergies

Overshadowed by a flurry of summits including the BRICS Summit, CHOGHM meeting and Modi-Xi bilateral, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s consequential visit hardly received any attention. Accompanied by a huge delegation, Olaf Scholz arrived in New Delhi on October 24 for a three-day visit for the biannual 7^th India-Germany Intergovernmental Consultations (IGC).  Other than IGIC, the trip had two other distinct elements.

For the first time in 12 years, Germany held the Asia-Pacific Conference of German Business (APK), a flagship event to promote economic relations between Germany and Asia-Pacific. Attended by PM Modi and Chancellor Scholz, the 18^th APK last conference witnessed the participation of 800 business delegates from various countries in the region. In the last leg of his trip, Scholz visited Goa where India and German navies held joint exercises and as part of Germany's Indo-Pacific deployment, two German ships, Frigate, Baden-Wurttemberg and a supply ship, Frankfurt am Main, made port calls in Goa.

 Ahead of Scholz’s scheduled visit, the German Foreign Office released a policy paper- Focus on India. The paper, a first of its kind released for any country by Germany, set the stage for the bilateral consultations. The policy paper was appreciative of India’s dynamic transformation and comprised five broad contours that also identified areas for cooperation. The five aspects of Focus on India included- India, a democratic partner of Germany for stability and security; strengthening the bilateral relations and strategic partnership; the EU’s relations with India; Cooperation with India in multilateral forums and Coordinating Germany’s policy of India.

Predicted to become the third-largest economy in the world, Germany lauded India’s success in tackling poverty. India’s growing international salience, its new role as “the voice of the Global South” and aspirations to play a significant role in shaping its international role are mentioned in the paper. Germany even acknowledges India’s stabilising effect in the conflict-prone Indo-Pacific region. India’s firm commitment to rule-based order and free, open, inclusive Indo-Pacific aligns completely with Germany’s Indo-Pacific strategy.

The free and fair conduct of the 2024 elections marked by a better performance of the opposition parties besides annihilating the Western propaganda of backsliding of democracy has firmed up India’s credentials as a strong democracy. Besides, India’s ability to stave off Chinese incursions for over four years has cemented its stature as a strong and reliable security partner for Germany.

Indeed, Germany’s climbdown from issuing a deeply intrusive Foreign Office statement about Arvind Kejriwal’s arrest in March ahead of the Lok Sabha elections to new policy directives that recommend- “an in-depth understanding of India and its political tradition, culture and history is an indispensable prerequisite” is rather surprising. Therefore, looking at the new willingness to strengthen the strategic partnership from a purely bilateral dimension would be churlish.

Since the Ukraine War, the West has been highly critical of India for increasing energy imports from Russia defying the sanctions regime. India was subjected to severe censure at various international forums. But India resolutely pursued its national interests and refrained from openly condemning Russia for the Ukraine war.

When confronted about its position on the Ukraine war, PM Modi emphatically stated, “India was never neutral in this war, we are on the side of peace”. Reasserting India’s commitment to the restoration of peace in Ukraine, PM Modi met Zelensky three times in three months which included his maiden visit to Ukraine. He also travelled to Russia and told Putin that “this is not an era of war” and pushed for “dialogue and diplomacy”. PM Modi indeed, offered to mediate the peace talks.

In one of the interviews, Zelensky hinted at holding the next round of peace talks in India. India’s position on the Ukraine war is not lost on Germany. The policy paper notes, that Germany “welcomes the Indian Government’s repeatedly expressed willingness to work to bring about a peaceful end to the war”.

Amid growing domestic opposition over the government’s support to the Ukraine War and the defeat of Scholz’s three-party coalition in State elections, Chancellor Scholz in an interview with Germany’s public television said, “I believe that now is the moment when we also need to discuss how we can get out of this situation of war faster than the current impression is”. Scholz is making a renewed push for a ‘swift peace’ in Ukraine. With poll predictions of US elections widely favouring the return of Trump, Germany is now rekindling diplomatic efforts to end the Ukraine war.

Trump stated multiple times that the Democratic party leadership have been “funding and arming a large-scale, open-ended war that does not benefit the US”. Germany is wary that with Trump at the helm of affairs in the US, the military aid and funding for Ukraine will be suspended. Subsequently, the burden of the war had to be borne by Europe and Germany, the largest economy of Europe. Considering India’s cordial ties and ease of connecting with the leaderships of Russia, the US and Ukraine, Germany believes India can play a significant role in resolving the Ukraine war through peaceful negotiations.

Germany views cooperation with India “as an opportunity to achieve its own objectives”. It has identified areas of mutual interest such as climate action, climate resilience, cybersecurity, reforms in the UN based on the text-based negotiations as a G4 member, advanced technology cooperation and combatting terrorism to expand dialogue and cooperation.

The motto of the 7^th IGC “Growing Together with Innovation, Mobility and Sustainability” aptly encapsulated the future directionality of the strategic partnership. Along with technology and innovation, climate action, green and sustainable development, expediting connectivity initiatives like IMEC through the EU, AI and quantum technologies, digital agriculture, Internet of Things (IoT), renewable energy, space technologies, defence and strategic cooperation received greater emphasis.

As a part of the Indo-German Green and Sustainable Development Partnership (GSDP) countries launched the Indo-German Green Hydrogen Roadmap, GSDP Dashboard and renewed the Joint Declaration of Intent on Urban Mobility. This year marks the 50^th anniversary of the Inter-Governmental Agreement on Cooperation in Scientific Research and Technological Development that institutionalised the framework of bilateral cooperation in Science & Technology, research and innovation. By prioritising innovation and technology, this has become a key pillar of cooperation.

To boost trade and economic cooperation, countries called for the early conclusion of the Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement, Investment Protection Agreement and agreement on geographical indications.

India and Germany concluded the Mutual Legal Assistance Treaty in Criminal Matters (MLAT) and the Agreement on the Exchange and Mutual Protection of Classified Information to deepen security cooperation.

Ramping up cooperation and coordination at regional levels, countries agreed to establish the India-Germany Dialogue on West Asia and North Africa (WANA) between the respective Foreign Ministries and launched Track 1.5 Dialogue on East Asia.  Along with Triangular Development Cooperation (TDC) in Cameroon, Malawi and Ghana and ongoing activities in Benin and Peru, countries have additionally launched millet projects in Madagascar and Ethiopia.

The year 2025 will mark 25 years of bilateral strategic partnership, deepening bilateral defence cooperations, countries expressed their intent to conclude a Memorandum of Arrangement regarding mutual logistics support and high-level exchange between the armed forces of India and Germany. Germany announced to permanently deploy a Liaison agent at the Information Fusion Centre for the Indian Ocean Region (IFC- IOR) and welcomed India’s application for observer status in the Eurodrone Programme of OCCAR (Organisation for Joint Armament Cooperation).

Ukraine war which led to snapping of energy ties with Russia has weakened Europe’s economy. Chinese deep in roots into automobiles is posing a stiff challenge to Europe’s automobile sector. At this juncture, India’s rapidly growing economy emerges as a promising pivot to Europe. India’s growing defence requirements especially, its quest for a partner for the P75I submarine deal involving the construction of six advanced submarines has opened up new vistas of opportunity for defence industries in Europe and Germany in particular.

Germany’s ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) is eager to secure the government to government deal with India. Additionally, Germany is seeking to help modernise the defence manufacturing sector and reduce reliance on Russia.

Countries signed MoU on disaster mitigation, in the field of occupational diseases, rehabilitation and vocational training of workers with disabilities, skill development, vocational education and training and museum cooperation. They declared the Joint Declaration of Intent in green mobility, science and technology, environmental science, health science, economy and commerce, labour and employment, education & research.

Increasingly Indian Diaspora are viewed as a model immigrant community in Germany. Berlin now looks up to the 2.5 lakh Indian community including the 50,000-strong Indian student community, the largest cohort of foreign students as a valuable bridge to connect with India. Germany, the growth engine of Europe is facing the challenge of an ageing population and a shortage of skilled labour. Germany is keen on partnering with India in mobilising the immigration of skilled workers.

In tune with the recommendation of the Federal Government’s Skilled Labour Strategy (2022), Germany has signed the Mobility and Migration Partnership Agreement in 2023 to increase skilled immigration. Given the highly successful integration of Indian workers, to facilitate rapid migration, Germany announced to increase the visas for skilled Indians from 20,000 to 90,000 per year.

The Skilled Labour Strategy, 2024 policy paper released days ahead of Scholz's visit to India, termed this new outlook a “win-win-win” strategy for Germany, India and Indian skilled workers. Driven by geopolitical realities and economic opportunities, Germany is seeking to reset ties with India. Even though Germany hasn’t divorced from the “China First” policy and seeking to diversify its economic engagements, Berlin wants to be a strong security partner of India. 

Building on the strength of the values of democracy, freedom, respect for international order, and the Principles of the UN Charter, the two nations demonstrated a genuine willingness to cement the strategic partnership. With the volatile political environment in the US putting strain on the trans-Atlantic Alliance, Europe countries are recalibrating their strategic relations.

With Germany inclined to adopt its new strategic approach towards India, it must shed the one-sided perception and cultivate an appreciation for the dynamic functioning of the most populous democracy. Finally, this interests-based approach infused with trust and tempered appreciation of different identities and ideas can alone take the partnership forward.

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India Reiterates Need for Reforming Global Institutions at Kazan BRICS Summit

Conceived, originally as a concept by Goldman Sachs’s economist Jim O’Neil in his study titled “The World Needs Better Economic BRICs” in 2001, that has great economic potential and capability to emerge as a counterweight, BRIC (the first letters of all the respective countries) came into existence much later. In September 2006, Foreign Ministers of Brazil, Russia, India and China met along the sidelines of the 61^st UNGA session and decided to work together. Russia, then part of the G8 initiated the creation of BRIC.

With no clear-cut laid-out charter and a secretariat, this informal group slowly acquired a degree of working comfort over the years. By 2011 at the Third Summit of Leaders at Sanya in China, South Africa joined it making it BRICS. BRICS, a motley group of countries with divergences and asymmetries invited a lot of scepticism and incertitude initially. However, over the years, the BRICS have evolved a common agenda and gained prominence thanks to its growing economic muscle.

After the expansion of BRICS in 2023 and the potential joining of new countries- Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia and the UAE- the BRICS now represents 45% of the world’s population and accounts for one-third of the global economy.

Ostracised as a Pariah state amid the Ukraine war, the 16^th BRICS Summit hosted by Russia at Kazan was attended by the leaders and representatives of over 30 countries.  has distinctly accentuated the international stature of Moscow. Condemning Moscow’s aggression, the West slapped several rounds of punitive sanctions to cripple the Russian economy and erode its global influence. The West has even started routing the interests from the frozen Russian assets to Ukraine’s war efforts. But to their consternation, notwithstanding their isolationist approach and demonisation of Russia, several countries still chose to rally behind BRICS, an organisation helmed by Russia.

Ahead of the Kazan Summit, 34 countries have officially applied for BRICS membership. Of them, 13 countries - Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Turkey, Uganda, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam were designated as BRICS Partner Countries. The list includes several countries that defied the West’s sanctions. The expanded BRICS grouping heralding the developmental aspirations and capabilities of the members and observers signified the emergence of a robust grouping.  A group, intently non-west is fervidly seeking solutions to the outstanding issues amid geopolitical conflicts, economic uncertainties and looming technological challenges.

The post-World War II World order dominated by the West and multilateral institutions is proving to be ineffectual in catering to the developmental needs of emerging economies. With the global power shifting from the West to the East with the rise of China, the relevance of the US-led world is in the doldrums. The so-called non-West essentially includes the Global South. Akin to BRICS, the Global South is not a unified entity. It is an ensemble of fledgling democracies, authoritarian regimes, Islamist regimes and even failed states. But what brought them together was their consensus on a myriad of concerns.

Reeling under the collective economic shocks of COVID-19 and the Ukraine War, the Global South is finding itself at the receiving end of the geopolitical conflicts. The existing Western multilateral institutions are failing to address these global challenges. The US's increasingly overbearing disposition, cavilling the neutral stance and strategic autonomy of nations is compelling them to strengthen alternatives to the US-dominated global order.  Despite the inherent incongruencies in the BRICS, given its growing economic heft, countries are willing to be part of a flexible group which isn’t dominated by a single power or hijacked by a single narrative.

Wary of the divisive tactics of the US and its unprincipled military intervention under the pretext of democratising nations, countries are advocating for a multipolar world. A world order that prioritises dialogue and partnership over confrontation. Aptly reflecting the collective hankerings of nations, the theme of the Kazan Summit “Strengthening Multilateralism for Just Global Development and Security” has chartered a framework to tackle the global challenges.

Positioning as the leader of the Global South, India has been objectively voicing out the problems of the Global South at international forums. With the induction of the African Union into the G20, India has showcased its commitment. Unlike Russia and China which are perceived to be anti-West, India which maintains good ties with the US is considered a neutral power.

Incidentally, PM Modi’s bilateral with President Xi after five years along the sidelines of the BRICS had also sent a strategic message to nations about India’s foreign policy.  India has burnished its credentials as a strong and amiable nation by reaching a consensus on the border dispute with China. Refusing to meekly surrender, India strongly repulsed Chinese incursions for over four years. Alongside, India patiently engaged in painstaking commander-level talks and diplomacy to resolve the issue peacefully.

Parallelly, India stood its ground in the face of the US’s secondment of Canada’s malicious allegations. By calling the bluff of Canada for harbouring secessionist elements New Delhi pulled back its High Commissioner shifting the onus of resurrecting the bilateral ties on the Western nation. India’s firm stance against Western machinations has earned it a special place. Demonstrating its tough resolve in safeguarding its national interests amid direct assaults by the superpowers, has certainly elevated its stature.

At the open plenary of the BRICS Summit, PM Modi has set forth an agenda for mitigating global challenges. He announced the proposed launch of the BRICS Startup Forum and welcomed the “consensus reached within BRICS on WTO reforms, trade facilitation in agriculture, resilient supply chains, e-commerce and special economic zones (SEZ) for economic cooperation, BRICS Open Carbon Market Partnership”. Highlighting the need for greater financial integration and trade in local currencies, he cited India’s success with UPI which is now adopted by so many countries.

Addressing the major global challenge- climate change, PM Modi welcomed countries to join Indian initiatives like Green Credit started at COP28, International Solar Alliance, Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure, Mission LiFE i.e. Lifestyle for Environment, Ek Ped Maa Ke Naam or a Tree in the name of the mother. Modi also enunciated India’s Gati Shakti portal, the multi-modular connectivity program, the BRICS Vaccine Research &Development Centre, the Railway Research Network Initiative, the BRICS Business Council and the BRICS Women Business Alliance.

To nurture BRICS into an inclusive and diverse platform, Modi stressed the importance of addressing the challenges faced by countries- economic uncertainty, food security, health security, energy security, cyber security, climate change and terrorism. At the closed plenary, advocating a people-centric approach, Modi once again reinforced the need for diplomacy and dialogue, condemned the double standards of certain nations towards terrorism and welcomed new partner countries.   

PM Modi strongly pitched the need for the introduction of reforms in global institutions like UNSC, multilateral development banks and WTO. He appealed to BRICS to collectively and unitedly raise voices. Putting speculations to rest in unequivocal terms, Modi prompted, “BRICS must be careful to ensure that this organisation does not acquire the image of one that is trying to replace global institutions” and advised that BRICS should be perceived as an organisation seeking to reform them.

Discernment of BRICS as an anti-west grouping is misplaced. BRICS is essentially shaping as a group of small countries endeavouring to find a balance of power and seeking to “forge an alliance based on shared interests and mutual respect”.

EAM Jaishankar who represented PM Modi at the BRICS Outreach Session declared that the time for a multipolar world has arrived. For an equitable world order, he suggested that independent platforms like BRICS must be strengthened and expanded. The benefits of globalisation have been uneven. It is high time that distortions in global infrastructure and production capabilities must be addressed for the “just development” of all nations.

BRICS has been a confluence of different outlooks and ideologies. However, over a period of time, the organisation has evolved a framework on the basis of consensus. Turning the inherent diversity into its strength, BRICS is attempting to make a difference in providing an alternative financial infrastructure, transaction systems, and payment methods to mitigate the impact of the unilateral weaponisation of sanctions.

Cultivating respect for each other's traditions, BRICS is making a fervent attempt to advance socioeconomic progress and development of nations that attained independence from Colonialism. Dialogue, coordination and cooperation are essential to promote the BRICS spirit.  By disallowing the dominance of any single voice, BRICS is carving a special place as an alternative multilateral organisation capable of offering solutions to the longstanding complex issues.

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India Cautiously Optimistic as China Tests Strategic Waters

At an interactive session at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, on September 12, EAM Jaishankar stated that negotiations with China have made some progress and “75 percent of disengagement problems are sorted out”. Delving on the India-China relations, Jaishankar reflected on China’s serious breach of trust and flagrant violation of the bilateral agreements that affected the India-China relations in the entirety.  Forty days later, India has announced that it has reached a consensus with China regarding patrolling arrangements along the LAC.

Briefing the media on PM Modi’s visit to Russia for the BRICS Summit, the Foreign Secretary, Vikram Misri made this major breakthrough public. In the past four and half years, India has firmly ascertained that peace and tranquillity at the border is an essential prerequisite for the relationship to return to normalcy. Walking the talk, India has refused to succumb to Chinese pressure. Though India’s measures to delink China after the Galwan episode failed to narrow the trade deficit, some of the initiatives like banning TikTok, Helo, PUBG Mobile, Garena Free Fire etc, were quickly emulated by the West and other countries.

Since May 2020, India and China held 21 rounds of Corps commander-level talks and 15 rounds of Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China border affairs (WMCC) meetings. Over the past couple of years, four rounds of disengagement occurred at the Galwan Valley, Pangong Tso, Gogra (PP-17A) and Hot Springs (PP-15) but patrolling at Demchok and Depsang remained unresolved. Providing further clarity on this aspect, Jaishankar in his interaction at the NDTV summit stated, “We reached an agreement on patrolling and with that the disengagement, we have gone back to where the situation was in 2020 and we can say with that the disengagement process with China has been completed”, and added, “I think it is a good development; it is a positive development and I would say it is a product of very patient and very persevering diplomacy”.

However, analysts are circumspect about the timing of this development eerily similar to the events that preceded the 2017 BRICS Summit held at Xiamen in China. A week ahead of the iconic summit, India and China announced to pull back troops engaged in a 73-day long faceoff at Doklam. Akin to the 2020 stand-off, China attempted to unilaterally change the status quo at the India-Bhutan- China trijunction. India deployed troops at the behest of Bhutan. The Chinese nationalist media went on an overdrive stating that Indian forces were forced to leave Doklam. In contrast, in the present context, the Indian media was abuzz with news of disengagement across LAC seized the pole position to carve a discourse whilst the Chinese media went mute.

As sceptics began to doubt the veracity of the government of India's announcement, a day later in a press briefing, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated- “Over a recent period of time, China and India have reached resolutions on issues concerning the border area following close communication through diplomatic and military channels”, and that “China commends the progress made and will continue working with India for the sound implementation of these resolutions.”

Back in 2017, though countries pulled back the troops, China surreptitiously continued to build infrastructure close to the trijunction and subsequently settled hundreds of Tibetan families along the Sino-Bhutan border.  Beijing salami-slicing by other means underscoring its single-minded expansionist pursuits is not lost on India. Consequently, India made the restoration of pre-2020 status quo a necessary precondition for disengagement of troops at LAC.

Chinese troops trespassed the LAC in 2020 under the garb of exercises and attempted a massive infiltration leading to the Galwan clash causing deaths on both sides for the first time since 1975. This incident broke the precarious trust between both countries revived by two informal summits- the 2018 Wuhan Summit and the 2019 Mamallapuram Summit. A steady troop build along the LAC by India and China has turned the borders volatile. Chinese attempted incursions at Yangtse in December 2022 notwithstanding the Galwan clash have further exacerbated the trust deficit between the militaries. Once bitten twice shy, India has upped it guard.

Indeed, a day after India-China agreement, Army Chief General Upendra Dwivedi reiterated that New Delhi is not going to settle for anything other than the restoration of status quo ante. The public announcement of disengagement is indeed a welcome step. But this has to be followed by de-escalation and finally deinduction for normalisation of ties. Given the lack of trust, all these processes are going to be very long and arduous.

Standing up to the Dragon’s military posturing at Doklam and resisting its incursions for over four years, India has reinforced its position as a regional bulwark. While the details of the disengagement are not public, the relations between India and China are unlikely to return to normalcy until peace and tranquillity are restored at the borders. Every Chinese move has an ingrained strategic signal.  Troop withdrawal at Doklam was accompanied by a compulsion to avoid any kind of embarrassment at the Xiamen Summit as India demurred to participate.

For the past five years, India remained irreconcilable and refused to compromise on anything less than peace at border. It wasn’t business as usual. Besides blocking over 250 Chinese mobile apps, India imposed strict curbs on Chinese investments and set a precedent of sorts. With its economy heading into a slow recession, China feeling the pinch of India’s prolonged restrictions is seeking to make some amends. Xu Feihong, who took up the charge as ambassador to India in May, a post lying vacant for 18 months, has sharpened the chorus for a consensus. He remarked, “India and China are not competitors but co-operators and are development partners, not threats”.

Besides, China is now increasingly cognisant of India’s dynamic diplomatic balancing that elevated India’s stature as a reliable partner. India’s ability to build bridges with the West and Russia with an uncanny ease and elan has positioned it as a responsible power. Playing an important role at every major platform, India has bolstered its working relationship with a plethora of countries. Countries are seeking India’s role in resolving the ongoing Ukraine war and escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Unlike smaller neighbours that were coerced into silence, Beijing’s bullying failed to forestall India’s persistence and resolve. The absence of structured bilateral engagements between leaders since the Galwan clash has shifted the onus of resurrecting the ties on Beijing, as India made its stance unequivocally clear that peace at border is a necessary perquisite for stable relationship. As leaders are expected to walk into each other at the BRICS summit hosted by Russia, China acquiesced to a consensus. In a repeat of Xiamen Summit, Xi agreed for a bilateral within 72 hours of declaration of border consensus.

Additionally, facing flak from the West for its predatory expansionist adventurism in the South China Sea and renewed proclamations over Taiwan as its integral territory, Beijing is attempting to makeup with India having opened up several fronts. West’s interference in the domestic politics of the sub-continent- including the regime change in Bangladesh, meddling in Indian elections, secondment of Canada’s malicious allegation and use of secessionist elements as assets have also spurred India-China rapproachement.

The much-awaited bilateral coming after the five years at the 16^th BRICS Summit in Kazan proceeded along the predicted lines. In a rehash of frequently choreographed metaphorical Dragon-Elephant tango, Xi told Modi, “It is important for both sides to have more communication and cooperation, properly handle differences and disagreements, and facilitate each other’s pursuit of development aspirations” and added, “ It is also important for both sides to shoulder our international responsibilities, set an example for boosting the strength and unity of developing countries, and contribute to promoting multi-polarisation and democracy in international relations”.

China’s reconciliation which is more a message to the West wasn’t an instant hit with New Delhi. Welcoming the disengagement and resolution of the border issue of 2020 PM Modi highlighted the importance of “maintaining peace and stability on the border (which) should remain our priority ” and affirmed that “stable, predictable, and amicable bilateral relations between India and China, as two neighbours and the two largest nations on earth, will have a positive impact on regional and global peace and prosperity”. He also reinforced that “mutual trust, mutual respect and mutual sensitivity” should be the basis of the bilateral ties.

The 3 M’s referred by PM Modi were first enunciated by Jaishankar, who laid the guiding principles to repair the India-China relations in his key note address at 13^th All Indian Conference of China Studies in January 2021. Given the long record of diplomatic negotiations with China for over seven decades, India is refining its approach towards China. India understands that Beijing’s diplomatic niceties and tall proclamations are vacuous.

The concept of Tianxia hardwired in the Middle Kingdom foreign policy would never accept India as an equal. India is perceptive of China’s strategic interests and its vexatious approach of tiring the adversaries with interminable rounds of negotiations. The multitudinous rounds of military and diplomatic talks are indeed a testament to India’s patience and perseverance. India knows that the current disengagement is a temporary pause and the revival of special representatives of India-China boundary question meeting is just a reconciliatory exercise. India’s golden mantra towards China is still rooted in Russian proverb “Trust, but verify”, the signature phrase of Ronald Regan!!

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Modi Elevates India’s Standing at ASEAN

Commemorating a decade of the Act East Policy (AEP), Prime Minister Modi on his two-day visit to attend the 21^st India-ASEAN Summit and the 19^th East Asia Summit in Laos PDR, has firmed up ties with the region. ASEAN comprises 10 Southeast Asian countries- Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. India established dialogue relations with ASEAN in 1992. Over the years, the relations have gradually strengthened and improved. Marking the 25th anniversary of ASEAN-India diplomatic ties, New Delhi hosted an ASEAN-India commemorative summit under the theme of “Shared Values, Common Destiny” in January 2018.

At the 2018 Shanghai Dialogue, PM Modi for the first time strongly articulated India’s Indo-Pacific Strategy for a free, open, inclusive and stable Indo-Pacific region. At the 34^th ASEAN summit, leaders adopted the ASEAN Outlook on Indo-Pacific (AOIP), a blueprint of ASEAN engagement with Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean regions in June 2019. In November 2019 at the 14^th East Asia Summit (EAS) India announced the Indo-Pacific Ocean’s Initiative (IPOI) and highlighted the need for both sides to work together to seek common solutions for a rules-based order. The alignment of IPOI and AOIP laid a firm ground to enhance partnership between both sides on maritime security, sustainability, disaster prevention and management.

AEP is the cornerstone of India’s Indo-Pacific Strategy. ASEAN is the heart of India’s Act East Policy and is central to India’s Indo-Pacific Strategy. ASEAN is the gateway to the South China Sea, a vital maritime corridor for global trade.

Subsequently, in 2021, both sides adopted a Joint Statement on Cooperation for Peace, Stability and Prosperity in the region. By 2022, India and ASEAN elevated ties to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. In 2023, both sides agreed to strengthen maritime cooperation and Food Security and Nutrition cooperation in response to crises. The partnership built on four Cs- Culture, Connectivity, Commerce and Capacity Building, was further revitalised at the India-ASEAN Summit at Lao, PDR with PM Modi proposing a 10-point program.

In the context of this year's ASEAN Summit theme, "Enhancing Connectivity and Resilience”, delivering India’s national statement, PM Modi has suggested 10 steps to reinvigorate the partnership.

These include- Promoting tourism wherein India has committed $5 million and declared 2025 as the "ASEAN-India Year of Tourism”; commemorating a decade of AEP, enhancing people to people connect, Sides are planning Music Festival, Youth Summit, Hackathon, Start-Up Festival; holding annual Women Scientists Conclave under "India-ASEAN Science and Technology Fund"; increasing scholarships for ASEAN students at Nalanda University and Indian Agricultural Universities; a review of "ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement” to create a secure, resilient and reliable supply chain; attaining disaster resilience with close coordination between sides with fund allocation of $5 million from the “ASEAN-India Fund”; ensuring health resilience through an institutionalised framework including extending invitation to health experts from ASEAN to India’s Annual National Cancer Grid ‘Vishwam Conference’; digital and cyber resilience; Green Future and Climate resilience.

Stating that the 21st century is the century of India and ASEAN countries, PM Modi ushered Sides into a new chapter of cooperation. Seeking solutions to address the challenges of the 21^st century, Sides brought out a “Joint Statement on Advancing Digital Transformation” for the implementation of ASEAN Digital Masterplan 2025 (ADM 2025) and to facilitate a seamless transition into the next phase by 2030.

As part of capacity building, India has been making noteworthy contributions in terms of knowledge sharing with the establishment of Centres for Excellence in Software Development and Training in Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam.

India also reaffirmed the “importance of maintaining and promoting peace, stability, maritime safety and security, freedom of navigation and overflight in the region, and other lawful uses of the seas, including unimpeded lawful maritime commerce and to promote peaceful resolutions of disputes, in accordance with universally recognised principles of international law, including the 1982 UNCLOS, and the relevant standards and recommended practices by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the International Maritime Organization (IMO)”.

Cognizant of China’s incremental maritime expansionism that has brought the region to the precipice of conflict, India has supported, “the full and effective implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of the Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) in its entirety and look forward to the early conclusion of an effective and substantive Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (COC) that is in accordance with international law, including the 1982 UNCLOS”.

China’s maritime expansionism has roiled the peace and security of the region. Chinese militia’s aggressive manoeuvres in the South China Sea, including the use of water cannons against the Philippine vessels and attacks with iron rods on Vietnamese fishermen, have brought smaller ASEAN neighbours on a collision course with China. Chinese aggressive military posturing is now a major threat to the region. The five claimants for territorial structures in the South China Sea other than China - Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Brunei and Malaysia are wary of the former’s encroachment of their exclusive economic zones.

Adeptly synchronising the developmental agenda with security concerns, India is stitching a strong regional partnership with ASEAN countries with a firm commitment to upholding international rules-based order. Reiterating India’s position, addressing the 19^th East Asian Summit, PM Modi said our focus should be on “development and not expansionism”. Earlier at the ASEAN Summit, he remarked, “We are neighbours, partners in the Global South, and a rapidly growing region in the world. We are peace-loving nations that respect each other’s national integrity and sovereignty.”

EAS comprises 18 participating countries- Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, the Republic of Korea, the Russian Federation and the United States plus the 10 ASEAN countries, and has a reputation for being a platform for dialogue among major powers keen on engaging with the region. Reasserting India’s position in the context of the ongoing Ukraine war and the Middle East Conflict, PM Modi stated, that it is “essential to respect sovereignty, territorial integrity and international laws. With a humanitarian perspective, we must place a strong emphasis on dialogue and diplomacy”. He also added, “Coming from the land of Buddha, I have repeatedly stated that this is not the age of war. Solutions to problems cannot be found on the battlefield”.

Endorsing ASEAN’s five-point consensus for Myanmar, India highlighted its contributions to the region including extending humanitarian assistance under “Operation Sadbhav” in the aftermath of Typhoon Yagi. In tune with the global challenges, India and ASEAN are expanding areas of cooperation in fields of emerging technologies like AI, Blockchain technology, Internet of Things (IoT), Robotics, Quantum Computing and 6G.

For a comprehensive and mutually beneficial equitable development, India and ASEAN are exploring potential synergies between sub-regional mechanisms and frameworks such as the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), Indonesia-Malaysia-Thailand Growth Triangle (IMT-GT), Singapore-Johor-Riau (SIJORI) Growth Triangle, Brunei Darussalam-Indonesia-Malaysia-Philippines East ASEAN Growth Area (BIMP-EAGA), and Mekong sub-regional cooperation frameworks, including Mekong-Ganga Cooperation (MGC) and Ayeyawady Chao Phraya-Mekong Economic Cooperation Strategy (ACMECS).

India is also enhancing connectivity with ASEAN in land, air and maritime domains in line with “Connecting the Connectivities”. As of now, India operates direct flights to seven ASEAN countries. Direct flights to Brunei will commence from this year. India has opened an embassy in Timor-Leste. India’s Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR) is opening up new paradigms for connectivity in the Indo-Pacific region. India is expediting the operationalisation of the India-Myanmar-Thailand (IMT) Trilateral Highway and seeking to expand it eastward to Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam.

In the long term, India plans to become the vital hub between Europe and South East Asia by linking IMT with the India-Middle East- Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). ASEAN, central to the Indo-Pacific strategy has been a collaborating ground for major powers that sought active engagement with the region. Given the geographical proximity and extensive economic cooperation, China casts maximum influence in the region closely followed by the US, Japan, EU and others.

Sadly, despite being a close neighbour, ASEAN is rather underwhelmed by India. As per ISEAS- Yusof Ishak Institute, New Delhi is rated as the eighth major partner in ASEAN. Ratcheting up defence and maritime security cooperation, India is now deepening ties with ASEAN countries and seeking to emerge as an important defence supplier and partner as well. India has commenced the first joint drill with ASEAN countries facilitated by Singapore in 2023. Six countries- the Philippines, Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam joined the naval drills underscoring the underlying Chinese influence on the foreign policies of some countries.

The discreet Chinese factor is posing a threat to ASEAN unity and preventing some of them from calling out Chinese threats openly.  By and large, Beijing’s unabashed predatory approach is now forcing countries to forge stronger ties with partner countries like the US, Japan and Australia and eventually led to another Quad- SQUAD.  

Setting forth a mutually beneficial framework for engagement, leveraging its civilisational and cultural connect and endorsing the security threats of the ASEAN countries, PM Modi has positioned India as a reliable Indo-Pacific security partner.

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