A Landslide Victory is a Shot in the Arm for Putin

 In the Russian Presidential elections held over the weekend from March 15-17, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin secured a landslide with 87.97 % votes. Bettering his own previous election numbers of 77% in 2018, Putin aged 71 will now begin his sixth term becoming the longest-serving leader after Joseph Stalin. The Western governments have termed them as ‘illegitimate’ and ‘undemocratic’ since the opposition is allegedly silenced. The sudden death of Putin’s staunch critic Alexei Navalny, in Arctic Circle jail weeks ahead of the election and the blocking of anti-war activist Boris Nadezhdin from contesting the election has further bolstered the perception of ‘unfair election’ and ‘restrictive democracy’.

The Western government refused to accept the electoral verdict terming it ‘rigged’ since the elections were held even in Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine- Donetsk, Luhansk,  Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Putin’s three opponents who were in the fray in the election - Nikolai Kharitonov, a member of the Communist Party, Vladislav Davankov of the New People Party and Leonid Slutsky of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) polled less than five percent of the votes.

Amid the international news coverage of brewing dissent against Putin’s regime especially among expatriates, there were widespread speculations of less voter turnout.  But an unexpectedly high turnout of 77% as opposed to 67.5% in the 2018 election mirrored voter enthusiasm despite a surge in Ukrainian bombardments on all three days of the polls. Russian state media hailed Putin’s victory as confirmation that “he is on the right track”.

At the victory rally, Putin deeply thanked the people of Russia for their “show of support and trust”. Dubbed a sham and one-sided election, Putin hit out at critics saying, “We have many tasks ahead. But when we are consolidated-no matter who wants to intimidate us, suppress us- nobody has ever succeeded in history, they have not succeeded now, and they will not succeed ever in the future” and promised to prioritise the successful conclusion of the “special military operation” in Ukraine. Breaking his silence for the first time, Putin called the death of Navalny as “unfortunate incident” and claimed that he agreed for talks on prisoners’ exchange with a condition that Navalny would never return to Russia.

Notwithstanding the Western media reports of growing anti-Putin sentiments in Russia, the massive voter turnout and consolidation of support for Putin exposes a stark reality. The Ukrainian war has propelled Russians to rally behind Putin more than ever.  The expulsion of Russia from various multilateral organisations like the Council of Europe and the United Human Rights Council etc, suspension from the Olympics, and International Ice Hockey Federation, etc, freezing of Russian assets, and the unending sanction packages have inadvertently created a narrative of a beleaguered Russia defending its interests. Burgeoning Western embargoes and attempts of the West to isolate Russia have generated grassroots support for Putin.

At the same time, the flight of Western investment from Russian markets, loss of employment and business opportunities, and the fear of conscription have forced Russian youth to migrate to greener pastures. But by and large, the vast majority stood by Putin.

Indeed, the “Noon against Putin” protest call given by Navalny’s widow Yulia Navalnya failed to make a great impact. Long queues of people during the last day of voting reinforced the confidence of the general public in the political process. This suffices to indicate that Putin still commands a lot of Russian support. While the outcome of the election is a foretold conclusion with near absent opposition incapable of putting up a tough fight, following his re-election Putin will be at the helm till 2030.

Commemorating, the 10 years of annexation of Crimea, at the victory rally, Putin announced a Railway line to connect the Sevastopol port. With the bridge connecting Crimea coming under intense attack during the Ukraine war, Putin is now contemplating reliable connectivity with Crimea through the occupied Ukrainian regions.

Holding the highest position since 2000, Putin has been instrumental in reviving the fragile economy. Defeating the Chechen militants, he restored Russian pride, reinstated stability and provided leadership to the Russian Federation post-Soviet Union collapse. Putin recognised Chechen separatists who received Western support as an existential threat and a challenge to Russian sovereignty. By overwhelming them with disproportionate use of force, Putin averted Western threats and rejuvenated Russian consciousness. He restored Russian national pride and resurrected the national sentiment.

Above all, what set Putin apart from his predecessors is his formidable vision for Russia as a great empire and his efforts to reposition Russia as a global power. Seeking inspiration from the past to make Russia a modern civilisation as envisioned by Tsar Peter the Great, Putin defended his Ukrainian operation, citing Peter’s 21 years of the Northern War with Sweden.

Putin has successfully weathered as many as 16,000 Western sanctions intended to cripple the economy. Besides withstanding these sanctions Russia surprised the West with a growth rate of 3.6%. At a time when Ukraine is scrambling for weapons and ammunition, Russia has allocated 6% percent of GDP for defence spending. Russia which has been under a sanctions regime since Crimean annexation has managed to isolate its economy strategically avoiding transactions that required payments in US dollars. Among the many strategies, Russia in 2022 pegged its currency with gold. Russia used its huge gold reserves to settle domestic and foreign transactions. The Ukrainian war has further cemented his status as the 21st-century Russian Tsar.

The Ukraine “special military operation” which was supposed to throw away the pro-Western regime in three days has entered its second year. In the ongoing war of attrition, both countries have lost several lives and valuable strategic assets with a remote chance of Russia seizing control over entire Ukraine. The war which witnessed a major mobilisation of forces since the Second World War has now turned into a “frozen” conflict.

Ukrainian war effort supported by the NATO countries is encountering a resource crunch with countries coming under intense pressure to reassess their financial and military assistance. A war fatigue has already set in to retrieve the occupied Ukrainian territories. With Ukraine becoming a political issue, the US is reassessing its aid to Kyiv. Biden insisted that he would continue to assist Ukraine, “as long as it takes” even as a growing number of Republicans and Democrats are against the “blank cheque” approach. The re-election of Trump in upcoming Presidential Elections can jeopardise US aid to Ukraine. Poland, Ukraine’s neighbour, is now facing a severe backlash from the farmers over Ukrainian grain who have blockaded the borders.

Though Ukraine has signed security agreements with six countries- UK, Denmark, Germany, Italy, France and Canada, the dissensions between the NATO countries are out in the fore. Media leak of German officials in conversation with US counterparts of plans to force Ukraine for peace talks vindicates the perception of deepening war fatigue. As per some reports, the Western countries are now running out of ammunition. On the contrary, Russia is expediting missile production, defence manufacturing has increased standing forces and fund allocation from the budget.

The façade of a united coalition of European countries on long-term support for the Ukrainian war is facing threats from domestic constituents. On the contrary, Putin in the wake of American stoked-European ostracization expertly launched Russia’s Asia-centric approach and started forging strategic relations with the anti-West actors. Spanning the two continents of Europe and Asia, for centuries, Russia tried to emulate European values and traditions. Now, swiftly shifting gears, Russia is unambiguously unleashing its Asian identity, building strong economic ties with China and spawning a primordial anti-western alliance. Renewing ties with Africa, and Latin America Russia is trying to regain influence.

Despite Western reservations and criticism of Russian democracy, a huge people’s mandate is a big boost to Putin. The big victory came in the wake of Macron’s warning that the deployment of European troops cannot be “ruled out” warranting an issuance of a nuclear threat from Putin. Responding to the prospect of war between Russia and NATO forces, Putin quipped, “Everything is possible in the modern world. It is clear to everyone that this will be one-step away from full-scale World War Three. I think hardly anyone is interested in it”.

Ironically clouded by anti-Russian sentiment, the Americans propped up Ukraine and made an enemy out of Russia while the real competition and threat was from China. The unrelenting sanctions regime has pushed Russia into Chinese arms and eventually heralded the emergence of a new axis and insinuated a Cold War 2.0

Even as the partisan Western narrative expounds that Russia is paying a staggering price for Putin’s imperial dreams, Russians are aware of the West’s grey zone warfare. In reality, the support for Ukraine is waning. With people firmly rallying behind him, Putin is in no hurry to negotiate with Ukraine. Having successfully managed the unprecedented sanctions regime, Putin has positioned himself as the defender of Russian sovereignty and custodian of Russian values.

Interestingly, Putin has expressed his interest in talks on France’s proposal of a ceasefire during the Paris Olympics 2024 and the possibility of the creation of a buffer zone out of Ukrainian territory to help Russia defend its territory in the future.

Notwithstanding the Western criticism of Russia’s election as ‘pseudo election’, countries like China, Saudi Arabia, Iran and India have extended congratulatory messages to Putin on his re-election. Despite the Western pressure, India refused to take sides and strengthened economic and energy cooperation with Russia. In a telephone conversation with Putin after the election, Modi conveyed India’s consistent position in favour of diplomacy and dialogue for the peaceful resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Irrespective of the outcome of the ongoing conflict, by resolutely standing up to Western pressure Putin has demonstrated his commitment towards building a sovereign Russia. An emphatic victory has further consolidated Putin’s credentials as a strong leader.

@ Copyrights reserved.