Wednesday 11 November 2020

Modi’s Undiminished Popularity Delivers Victory for the NDA Alliance in Bihar

 

Just days after a closely contested US Presidential elections, India is also witnessing a nail-biting number crunching game in the Bihar assembly elections. Unfortunately, the similarities don’t end there. The exalted liberal brigade, uncannily firmed a theory that akin to Joe Biden, Tejashwi Yadav of RJD would romp home victory. Besides predicting a landslide and sufficiently pushing this narrative, they spelled doom for the NDA. Interestingly, in what can be a repeat of the US election scenario, none of the exit polls in India hasn’t ever predicted a possible victory for the NDA.

In contravention to the prophesised theories, Bihar assembly elections turned out be a closely contested affair with the outcomes down to the wire. The wafer- thin margins sealing the fate of the candidates has kept election watchers on the edge of the seat. Bihar polls registered a fairly decent turnout of 57% despite the COVID. But the wait for the results has turned into a long-drawn affair. The 63% increase in polling booths due to COVID restrictions, has caused much delay in declaration of poll outcomes. Since the beginning NDA maintained a fragile lead, giving anxious moments to Mahaghatbhandan. But by and large, the massive swing in the outcomes has changed has turned into a nail-biting affair.

At the time of writing, NDA comprising of, BJP, JDU, Jitin Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) and Mukesh Sahani’s Vikassheel Insaan Party have crossed the majority mark. BJP with a strike rate of 66% has reiterated that Modi magic is still intact. Given the poor show of JD (U) afflicted by the anti-incumbency factor, BJP’s stellar performance has saved the NDA from a defeat.

Enthused by Joe Biden’s triumph, the Liberal brigade in India, inundated a narrative drawing parallels between the US elections and Bihar polls, where there exists none, declared the outcome of the Bihar assembly elections as referendum on Modi.

Since Modi’s spectacular return to power in 2019 with absolute majority, NDA executed landmark legislations like abrogation of article 370, triple talaq, CAA which unsettled the liberals. Upping ante against the government, the brigade whipped up tensions and orchestrated communal riots to push nation into unrest. Sabotaging this nefarious agenda, BJP government came out unscathed. Stung by COVID pandemic and a punitive Chinese transgression across the LAC, BJP government entered a mission mode to wade through these exigencies.

COVID pandemic unprecedented global disruption. Many world leaders were found either biting dust or facing public ignominy for poor COVID management. In sharp contrast, Prime Minister Modi, leading a country of 1.35 billion with limited health resources seemed to have fared better. Through national wide lockdown, during the initial stages of viral outbreak, Modi strategized to curtail viral spread. This unannounced lockdown has caused severe distress and economic hardships to various sections of the society. Sufferings of the migrant workers, loss of livelihoods across the country has emerged as major challenge. Prime Minister faced severe criticism putting the lives and livelihoods of several millions of workers at risk. Government’s financial measures and the “Atma Nirbhar” project was derided as too little too late.

Left-liberals continued to attack the government for the insufficient measures, economic recession and jeopardizing lives of migrants. Despite the scathing attacks, Modi’s popularity remained intact. A Lokniti-CSDS survey indicated that 78% were satisfied with Prime Minister’s handling of pandemic 1. Undermining the national reality, opposition continued to slander which gained more ground after Joe Biden’s victory. They even anticipated a gloom and doom for the NDA in the 2024 elections.

Most Indian media exit poll surveys went horribly wrong. Out of the bye-elections held for the 59 seats in 11 states, BJP won 40 seats. With a clean sweep in Gujarat (8/8), Telangana (1/1) and 6 out of 7 seats in UP, BJP has demonstrated its pan-India presence and electoral dominance. While this performance can alone indicate the resounding consolidation of BJP and its massive approval among the populace, the outcome of Bihar assembly elections has only reinforced BJP’s unhindered poll run.

The major takeaways from the Bihar assembly polls have been, trouncing JD (U), BJP emerged as the single largest party in the NDA. Anti-incumbency has stung Nitish Kumar’s JD (U), a strike rate of 37% is a reflection of people’s disenchantment. Unlike in the past, Nitish’s leverage has declined and he can no longer have his way. Disapproving Nitish, LJP’s Chirag Paswan walked out the NDA, and contested alone. His smear campaign against Nitish dented NDA’s electoral outcome. Claiming to be the Hanuman of Modi, Paswan entered the fray and gained a single seat but damaged the JD (U)’s winning prospects in close to 40 seats. Earning the reputation of ‘vote-cutter’ he ended up hurting NDA’s electoral gains.

Tejashwi Yadav, in absence of Lalu Prasad Yadav, single-handedly led the party in the elections and emerged as single largest party. RJD made most of its popularity in the rural areas and put up a strong fight with huge winning margins against the JD(U). Its alliance partner Congress proved to be dampener yet again. With a paltry 9.5% of vote share, Congress is galloping towards its extinction as a national party. Another important development has been resurgence of the Leftist parties, which speaks of scores of people who couldn’t benefit from the social welfare schemes.

AIMIM contested the Bihar elections in alliance with BSP, Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samata Party, Suhel Dev’s Bharatiya Samaj Party and Devendra Yadav’s Samajwadi Janata Dal (Democratic) clinched five seats in the Seemanchal region which went to polls in the final phase. Contesting 24 seats AIMIM smartly encashed Muslim votes which went for Mahaghatbhandhan. Muslim consolidation earned AIMIM five seats.

Much to the dismay of the liberals, BJP remains a strong force to reckon with steering their alliance partners to victory. BJP is always accused of being unfair to its alliance partners. Contrary to the perception, alliance partners who are unrelenting in criticising BJP have disproportionately, reaped electoral gains seeking votes in the name of Modi. Alliance partners continue to extract their pound of flesh but fail to acknowledge it openly. As a national party, it is high time, BJP grooms second rung regional leaders and slowly refrain entering alliance and start contesting alone in states.

As always, the street intelligence has trounced the predictions of Khan market elites. Bihar poll verdict once again underscored the undiminished popularity of Modi.


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