Curtains are not yet finally drawn over the US Presidential elections 2020. Marked by the absence of a traditional concession speech or a congratulatory message, the piling law suits contesting the results in six swing states is raising doubts over the electoral process. In tune with democratic functioning, despite resistance, Biden and Harris started receiving daily national security and diplomacy briefings.
Close to three weeks to elections, the outcome remains
shrouded. Assuaging fears, Trump has authorised the Biden transition and on
Monday, Biden announced his Cabinet pick. Backing the announcement of six names
with a tweet of “America is Back”, Biden has grandiosely conveyed the return to
Multilateral diplomacy.
The Cabinet appointees dominated by the Obama era- old
establishment underscored the message of “American exceptionalism”. Through the
choice of appointments of Anthony Bilken as US Secretary of State, Jake
Sullivan as national security advisor, Alejandro Mayorkas as chief of homeland
security, Linda Thomas-Greenfield as US ambassador to the UN, Avril Haines as
director of intelligence and John Kerry as special presidential envoy of
climate, Biden has signalled America’s return to Obama era foreign diplomacy.
Dominated by the Ivy League diplomats, Biden administration will end Trump’s
isolationist policies and “America First” and reinstate cooperation and amicable
working with allies. Notably, post-Biden’s announcement, China’s Xi
congratulated the President-Elect on his electoral victory.
Biden’s ascent to power, comes at a time when the “American
exceptionalism” is in doldrums and the World Order build by it is under threat
from China. Appointment of Washington insiders with experience in policy making,
signalled a more predictable foreign policy replete of ruthless isolation and toppling
of regimes, and a reticent and cautious China policy.
Trump’s transactional foreign policy a radical departure from
the previous regimes led to spin-offs with traditional allies. Biden’s
Presidentship will be a return to normalcy. But what has changed from Obama era
to Biden is the China’s steady rise. China’s influence is no longer confined to
its sphere of influence.
Earlier, crippling American sanctions could bring any regime
to its knees. But now regimes refusing to surrender to America are reaching out
to Beijing. Be it North Korea or Iran they are finding a patron in China. The
rise of China has created new economic and geopolitical realities. Hence
pursuing policies of American unilateralism are no longer going to work. Even
as the discourse is dominated by the issues of bringing about domestic
stability in the aftermath of deeply divided and contested elections, foreign
policy recalibration has to prioritised by Biden administration.
With the conclusion of RCEP, China has demonstrated its
keenness in reshaping the geopolitics in the Indo-Pacific region. It is
steadily cementing its role as the centre of the Indo-Pacific region. On
November 18th, The US State Department’s Office of Policy Planning
has released an unclassified paper, “Elements of China Challenge” along the
lines of George Kennan’s idea of “containment” as a strategy to take on Soviet
Union in 1947.
The 70-page document released days after elections made some
important suggestions and laid out ten tasks for the American administration1.
The Memo states that China is wedded to the 20th Century
Marxist-Leninist dictatorship and has triggered “a new era of great-power
competition”. For the first time in this paper, America highlighted CCP’s
determination to remake world order and its quest for global pre-eminence.
China Observers has warned America that, “the prolonged
failure in China policy can turn out to be biggest US policy deficiency in the
past seven decades, given the accumulating dangerous strategic consequences of
the rise of Chinese power for the world order as well as United States and its
allies and its friends”. But American leaderships failed to see this
coming. Characteristically, categorising people as either Hawks or Doves,
deluding in an illusion of hope of maintaining American power, the US failed to
accept the realities.
With regard to Indo-Pacific region, which America helped to
develop after World War-II, the paper noted, “Near to medium strategy
(of China) will be using military capabilities, operational concepts and over
all doctrines to turn US’s military’s technological strengths in Indo-Pacific
into weaknesses by credibly threatening to deliver massive punishment against
America power projection forces while thwarting US ability to provide
reinforcement… The PRC’s strategy is not only to prevail but also to
demoralise America friends and partners by demonstrating that US can’t meet security
commitments in the region”. This strategy which is pertinent to
Taiwan will be slowly extended to other countries.
Strategic import of the observations of the Elements of China
Challenge especially in the context of Indo-Pacific region are salient. Cognisant
of the strategic importance of the region, Obama launched “Pivot to Asia”.
Despite the policy, during his eight-year regime, China formidably established
its dominance in the entire region and defiantly undermined the International
Arbitration without battling an eyelid. The rest of the World including America
fretted and frowned but failed to inflict any punishment for this brazen
defiance.
Despite the contesting views about the recommendations and
observations of the policy paper, to his credit, President Trump have
definitely understood the game plan of China and identified competitive
threats. But he couldn’t come up with a coherent and consistent strategy
initially. After the outbreak of the pandemic he cemented his approach. His strategy
towards reasserting American position in Indo-Pacific- like revamping the Quad in
2017 to renaming the US Pacific Command as Indo-Pacific Command, elevating the
Quad to Foreign Ministers summit and finally the Quadrilateral Malabar exercise,
Trump made all the right moves.
By convening of the Quad with three new partners South Korea,
Vietnam and New Zealand to synergise efforts during the Wuhan virus outbreak,
the US has espoused interest to step up its engagement with the region.
Originally in 2013, The Quad Plus Dialogue was launched which included Quad and
Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, Taiwan, France and Sri Lanka. Now US is
reconnecting with these partners. In October after conclusion of the
Foundational Agreement BECA with India during the 2+2 Ministerial dialogue,
Secretary Mike Pompeo travelled to Sri Lanka, the Maldives and Indonesia to
kick start collaborations, establish resilient supply chains, reduce China’s
influence and boost the Indo-Pacific Strategy.
Upping ante against China, America welcomed the head of the
Tibetan government in-exile Dr Lobsang Sangay at the White House for the first
time in six decades2. Asserting that China has no role to
choose the next the Dalai Lama, US House of Representatives has passed a
resolution titled-“Affirming the significance of the genuine autonomy of the
Tibetans in the People’s Republic of China and the work his Holiness the 14th
Dalai Lama has done to promote global peace, harmony and understanding”,
Congressman Ted Yoho called for a teleconference between Congressmen and the
Dalai Lama to discuss peaceful solutions to international conflicts3.
While these acts are bound to rile China, Trump steadily buttressed
American influence in the region.
NSA Robert O’Brien on his visit to Vietnam and the Philippines
reassured these countries which have maritime disputes with China of all
support in case of any external attack4.
Reiterating America’s position on Taiwan, Pompeo claimed, “Taiwan
has not been part of China” in a radio interview. Recounting the work of
Taiwanese expert, Bruce Jacobs of Monash University, he said, “since the
arrival of the Dutch in 1624, Taiwan has been ruled by six colonial rulers, The
Dutch, the Spanish, the Cheng family, the Manchu Empire, The Japanese and the
Chinese Nationalists…. and Taiwan was part of China only during the Civil war
from 1945-49 and has never been part of PRC, a nation with a notably distinct
culture and state”5. By calling the bluff of China’s
bombastic claims, Pompeo has set the record straight and invited China’s wrath.
But Pompeo’s straight talking has definitely earned America a critical acclaim
in Taiwan.
Notwithstanding the Presidential transition, in the backdrop
of conclusion of RCEP, America and Taiwan have signed five-year agreement on
health, technology and security6. Drumming up American
support, Indo-Pacific Commanding Officer, Rear Admiral Michael Studeman visited
Taiwan7. By setting new precedent through high-level visits,
Trump administration is clearly sending a message to Beijing of Taiwan having
America’s back. With China’s voices of attacking Taiwan growing shriller, Trump
administration has been concomitantly ramping up support and cooperation with
Taiwan.
Going ahead, while Taiwan might become an issue of contention
in Sino-US relations, Trump has chosen to play a hard game with China. In sharp
contrast to Trump’s bilateral approach, Biden has been a proponent of
multilateral approach. These differential approaches are bound to generate
concerns especially in Taiwan.
By upping ante against China and reaching out to partners and
allies in the Indo-Pacific, Trump is attempting to make up dwindling American
credibility and challenging China’s dominance in the region. Trump has
certainly achieved some closeness with Asian countries. On the contrary, Biden
refusal to take a call from President Tsai-Ing Wen of Taiwan and allowing
Blinken to talk to his counterpart implied an eventual attenuation of US-Taiwan
ties.
Barring the campaign rhetoric where Biden called China a
“thug”, he lacked a clear-eye approach of the threat posed by China in
Indo-Pacific region. Reckoned as a “consensus-builder” “and centrist with
strong streak of interventionism”, Biden’s secretary Blinken can hardly take on
a super ambitious China determined to displace America as World’s foremost
power.
Unlike Trump, Biden fails to inspire the fence-sitting
Indo-Pacific countries grappling the aggressive policies of China. Through a
steady engagement and an inspiring outreach, Trump has laid a foundation for a
robust Free, Open, Prosperous and Inclusive Indo-Pacific. Biden’s choice of
candidates replete of globalists and liberalists with a propensity for
nonagenarian Kissinger’s counsel of “to go easy on China” can hardly backstop China’s
unabated expansionism
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