After the pageantry and show of the
day one of President Trump’s 36-hour visit to India, day two turned out be high
on substance. Much to the chagrin of the conspiracy theorists who over
ambitiously cast a gloom on the Indo-US strategic partnership, Prime Minister
Narendra Modi and President Trump elevated the ties to Comprehensive global strategic
partnership.
By sealing the three of the four
foundational agreements-General Security of Military Information Agreement
(GSOMIA) in 2002, Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) in 2016,
Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) in 2018, India
and US have strengthened the strategic partnership. Expanding the defence ties
further, countries have signed the Industrial Security Annex (ISA) at the
conclusion of the 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue, December last year. ISA enables
India to be recipient of advanced technology and make in part of the global
supply chain in the defence sector. This has cleared decks for co-production
and co-development of defence equipment and platform and laid firm foundation
for signing of the last foundational agreement BECA. BECA (Basic Exchange and
Cooperation Agreement) sets the stage for exchange of geospatial information.
Countries are likely to sign the agreement in March. Earlier Trump
administration accorded STA-1 (Strategic Trade Authorisation) status paving way
for sale of high-technology weapons. The US has made an exception by including
India in the list which usually contains countries which are members of all the
four nuclear regimes. Baring Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), India is part of
the other three. It is widely known that China has stone walled India’s
membership. In short, Defence cooperation has become lodestar of the Indo-US
Strategic Partnership.
India’s defence purchases from the US
which been virtually zero have steadily escalated to $18 billion in 2018-19.
During Trump’s visit countries finalised the defence deals worth $3 billion for
acquiring 24 MH-60 Romeo Helicopters and six AH-64E Apache helicopters,
countries deepening the defence partnership. Security is an integral aspect of
Defence partnership, to make it seamless, interoperability is the key. Drawing
attention to the same in his press statement, Prime Minister Modi said, “India
forces today are doing maximum training exercises with US forces. In the last
few years there has been unprecedented interoperability between our armies”,
paving way for greater maritime, space domain awareness as well.
Over years, India established
formidable reputation of law abiding and peaceful nation by accepting verdicts
of the International courts and resolving territorial disputes amicably. Given
India’s geostrategic position, laudable credentials as security provider in the
IOR region, the US which has shifted focus to the Indo-Pacific region has found
a valuable partner in India. India can be an invaluable asset to countervail
Chinese moves and keep the Asian continental and maritime spaces free from
Chinese domination. With its growing markets, enviable demographic dividend and
immense potential for investment and trade, ties with India are of immense
significance to the US which is seeking fresh opportunities for trade. Also,
after the pitched rivalry with Iran, the US has extended boundaries of the
Indo-Pacific till Persian Gulf. Being the resident power, the US is enhancing
engagement with India. Shedding the reluctance and hesitation, Trump
administration is now seeking to share the most advanced defence technologies
with India. This departure from
strategic hesitation pivoted on the mutual trust and good will is bound to
enhance the engagement between the nations and usher the partnership into
higher realms.
After India and the US failed to
reach trade agreement, analysts cast gloom over Trump’s visit. On the contrary
countries have resolved to intensify joint fight against terrorism, human
trafficking, violent extremism, drug trafficking and cybercrimes and agreed to
establish Counter Narcotics Working Group in close collaboration with Home
Security of both countries. Seeking to enhance energy cooperation, India and
the US evolved strategic energy security partnership to address India’s diverse
energy needs. This includes import of coking coal, Liquified Natural Gas (LNG)
and finalising the transfer of six nuclear reactors from Westing House Electric
Company. ISRO and NASA are now
collectively working on the World’s first dual-frequency Synthetic Aperture
Radar Satellite with many joint projects in pipeline. Measures are afoot to
nurture students through the “Young Innovators” internship.
In a huge fillip to the Free, Open
Indo-Pacific (FOIP) Countries have pledged to adhere to the rule-based order.
Reinforcing the importance of the rule of law, freedom of navigation,
overflight, lawful use of seas, unimpeded lawful commerce and peaceful
resolution of the maritime disputes under the international law, India and the
US underpinning the centrality of the ASEAN have objectively strengthened FOIP.
Cognisant of the efforts towards evolving a Code of Conduct for the South China
Sea, India and the US urged them to be in line with the international law and
not undermine legitimate rights of any country. Countries have agreed to
intensify consultation under Quad, JAI (Japan America India), 2+2 Ministerial
Dialogue mechanism.
In an interesting reference to
Huawei, “During our visit, we discussed the importance of a secure 5G
wireless network and the need for this emerging technology to be a too for
freedom, progress, prosperity-not to anything where it could be even conceived
as a conduit for suppression and censorship”(in a veiled reference to
China). Endorsing the need for high quality, sustainable and transparent
infrastructure development, US has invited India to be part of the Blue Dot
initiative of the G7 which aims to bring private sector, civil society to
promote transparent infrastructure development. Trump has reported that US is
in talks with Japan and Australia as well. Through Development Finance
Corporation (DFC), US has pledged $600 million towards India’s renewable energy
projects. Also, India is part of the US’s W-GDP (Women’s Global Development and
Prosperity), initiative aimed at nurturing entrepreneurial talents of Women led
by Ivanka Trump.
India is now tagging along with
countries like France to undertake developmental projects in the third World
countries. India is now mulling such an arrangement with the US. Countries
signalled collaboration between India’s Development Partnership Administration
and USAID. India and the US exchanged three MoUs on Mental Health, Safety of
medical products and letter of cooperation between IOC, India and Exxon Mobil
India Limited
Trump who has been unequivocal in his
condemnation of radical Islamic terror have called upon Pakistan to rein in on
the terror operatives proliferating in its territory. The expanse of the
cooperation and the congruity over common interests is certainly adding more
strength to the partnership which is making good progress in several arenas. It
is but indicative that the people to people connect is playing a pivotal role
enhancing trust, goodwill for deepening of the partnership.
Eclipsing China, the US has become
the largest trading partner of India. To boost bilateral economic cooperation,
CII (Confederation of Indian Industries) and USIBC (US India Business Council) launched
‘$500 billion road map’ to review India and the US trade and policy reforms on
the eve of Trump’s visit. Harping on the need for fostering greater synergies,
the roadmap necessitated 13 policy interventions. In the past two decades,
India and the US trade has grown at the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of
11.8% and nearly 50% in the fast five decades. Currently the bilateral trade
volume of goods and services is $142 billion. The report delved three possible
scenarios- limping scenario with CAGR of 3.9% reaching the milestone by
2052; Chugging scenario with growth rate of 7.9% till 2035 and Soaring
scenario clocking 11.9% growth tipped to reach the set target of $500
billion by 2030.
CII and USIBC have suggested several
steps to boost investments and identified five emerging market segments-Blue
economy, sports, space industry, tourism and environment. They suggested the
feasibility of exploring FTA (Free Trade Agreement), a comprehensive Economic
cooperation agreement to reduce tariffs. The US has recently sealed bilateral
trade agreements with Mexico and Canada, signed first round of trade deal with
China. Elevating the economic landscape of America, trade has been the top most
priority of Trump. Given Trump’s propensity to expedite bilateral trade agreements,
teams must work towards fast-tracking FTA in lieu of limited $10 billion
limited trade deal. Modi and Trump have urged negotiating teams for early
conclusion of the ongoing negotiations to reach phase one of comprehensive
bilateral trade agreement. Reports that both India and the US trade teams are exploring
the feasibility of FTA between the countries in the next 90 days mandated
notice to US Congress. Modi has also pressed for conclusion of “Totalisation
Agreement”. In his interaction with Indian business leaders, Trump promised to
ease investment regulations.
By checking all the right button,
Trump has nearly addressed all the outstanding issues between both countries.
Assuring India of intelligence support and sharing of information, Trump has
pledged to help India following America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Since the abrogation of article 370,
West has relentlessly carried out a vicious campaign against India which
intensified with the promulgation of CAA (Citizenship Amendment Act). Thanks to
the nefarious propaganda, India’s domestic legislations were dragged into
strategic conversations. Known for his faux pas, International Media expected an
off the cuff remark on CAA from Trump to humiliate India and Modi. Much to their consternation Trump refused to
speak about the CAA during the press conference. Trump evaded questions on
Kashmir. Unlike President Obama, who lectured India on tolerance despite a
whopping 1.1 million racist assaults in America, Trump carefully avoided
interfering in the internal affairs of India. On the contrary he lavished
praise on Modi and lauded his phenomenal potential.
Even as the anti-CAA protests morphed
into arson, violence, vandalism and descended into riots in the capital city,
refused to be drawn into any conversation on CAA and “individual attacks”,
he said, “That’s up to India. I hope it will take the right decision for its
people”. Clearly, Trump could see through the widespread disruptions caused
by the anti-CAA groups. Tensions orchestrated by anti-CAA mobs led to
cancellation of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s summit meet scheduled to
be held in Assam, December last year. Having tasted blood, the lobby propped up
by anti-Indian elements brewed new storm pitching up tents and blocking roads
on the eve of Trump’s visit in the capital. Warned of these insidious plans,
Modi and Trump went ahead with the bilateral summit. Sharjeel Imam, mentor of
anti-CAA protests deposed before media that they want to create chaos,
disruption and ruckus to draw international attention. President Trump’s visit
has been their best bet.
By refusing to comment on CAA, Trump
has denied the Western media a chance to tarnish India’s image. Heralding a
diplomacy of friendship and respecting India’s sensitivities, Trump made an
indelible impression on his maiden visit to India.
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