Xi Jinping’s indefinite rule can be bad news for India

On Sunday, Chinese Communist party (CCP) made a stunning announcement of scrapping the two-term limit for President and Vice-President confounding the fears of many Chinese observers. President Xi who was elected unopposed for the second-term will now continue to hold the position beyond 2023. While the constitutional amendment squashing the limits on tenure was quietly passed at a plenum in January, the announcement was made two days back. This move will be officially ratified at National People Congress (NPC) meet on March 5^th. The alarming power grab of Xi will establish him as the potential leader for a life. This move besides conferring unfettered power will make Xi supreme leader of the party, President China for life and head of the Central Military Commission. With this new elevation Xi is now the Commander-in-chief of the armed forces bestowing him with supreme authority over PLA (Peoples Liberation Army). Hailing the move, the Global Times quoted, country needs stability and by ensuring a strong leadership during the crucial period between 2020 and 2035, China can transform into a modern and prosperous state. But on the contrary, in absence of internal checks, Xi’s heavy-handed rule might intensify the conflicts and push the country into anarchy. Moreover, centralization of power in single individual will hark back country into earliest periods of dictatorship.

The two-term limit was introduced against the background of President Mao’s “Great Leap Forward” and “cultural revolution” that claimed 45 million lives and wreaked havoc in the country.  Steering country away from the shambles of absolute dictatorship, Mao’s successor, President Deng Xiaoping built institutional mechanism to curb totalitarianism by introducing a two-term limit in the constitution since he believed “over-concentration of power is arbitrary rule by individuals at the expense of collective leadership”. This paradigm effectively prevented dictatorship, regularized political leadership, ensured peaceful power succession and carefully avoided the common pitfalls of other communist countries. Peaceful and orderly transfer of power led to “authoritarian resilience”, a term coined and researched by Andrew J Nathan. He explained power transfer in most authoritarian communist regimes has always been a moment of crisis often marred by purging, factionalism, violence and often chaos. Careful power succession displayed by the third and fourth generation Chinese regimes-Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao displayed attributes of institutionalization, unusual in history of authoritarianism. This political stability in turn ushered China into an era of phenomenal economic growth. The term limit has blocked Xi’s ambition to rule China indefinitely.

In Chinese politics, presidential position has no real authority as opposed to the role as head of Communist party and Chief of military. It is only after the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests; all the three leaderships were fused into one. By toppling the weak institutional framework instituted by Deng, Xi has grasped unrestrained power. Unfortunately, despite the devastation endured by country under dictatorial Mao, China refused to build strong institutionalization that had distinct norms. By smashing the norms of collective leadership, Xi is now all set to drive China towards unparalleled authoritarianism akin to other communist and fascist regimes.

Last year October, when Xi failed to reveal his successor foreign policy wonks hinted at Xi’s bigger plans for consolidation of power. These worst fears became true when the 19^th CCP unanimously passed a resolution to enshrine Xi’s ideology in the constitution along side Mao Zedong and his successor Deng whose political thoughts were included much later. Now officially “Xi’s thoughts on socialism with Chinese characteristics” has become the authentic signature policy of the country.  

Chinese experts indicate that Xi regularly emphasized the need to maintain control over constitutional interpretation and enforcement. With unfettered control over every aspect governance now he may not hesitate to nullify the vital aspects of Chinese Constitution that advocates freedom of speech, freedom of religion and privacy rendering it useless. Cognizant of Xi’s severe crackdown on corruption as governor of Shanghai, the West welcomed his presidency and imagined him to bring massive changes in economic and political landscape of China. Much against their expectations of turning China into a liberal, rather democratic and transparent country, he pushed country into a realm of unstinted authoritarianism. He reduced opposition to a bundle by launching massive anti-corruption drives, imposed censors on media and steadily extended them to internet, silenced democratic voices, jailed hundreds of human rights activists and literally turned the country into a surveillance state. Having taken control of domestic security, he crushed Uighur movement with iron-hand, imposed brutal restrictions on their religious practices and by employing crucial facial recognition technology began tracking the moments of people. He trampled Tibetan dissidents and diluted their resistance by altering the demographics of Tibetan Autonomous Region. Reneging on the promise of “one country two systems”, Xi is taking drastic steps to curtail the democratic values. The tiny island which has once been a beacon of liberalism is now struggling to retain its autonomy. 

With China’s growth rate slumping from the two-digits, to sustain domestic confidence, Xi unlike his predecessors abandoned low key foreign policy and strongly infused the idea of nationalism. Giving a strident direction to China’s global aspirations, Xi began to build robust relations with different countries and launched key infrastructure initiative projects under the BRI (Belt Road Initiative) and extended China’s global influence.

Elimination of term-limits will embolden Xi who would unabashedly pursue a muscular foreign policy to boost China’s expansive presence in both Indo-Pacific and Indian Ocean Region (IOR).  China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which violates India’s sovereignty will receive a major boost. Pakistan which has long turned into China’s vassal state will increasingly move into Chinese Orbit. Having snapped ties with US, Pakistan, largely dependent on China for largesse with strengthen its ties with Beijing. Both countries which have come together on anti-India agenda might intensify attacks on India. India should now brace for more border incursions, skirmishes and numerous demarches on Arunachal Pradesh. China will now aggressively jostle with India for a dominant position in South Asia. To keep India on toes, China will intensify containment policy and will seek stronger ties with all its neighbors. Sri Lanka grappling under China’s debt trap settle the issue by formally leasing Hambantota port for 99 years. By installing a pro-Communist regime in Nepal, Xi has penetrated India’s Himalayan neighbor. To veer Afghanistan away from India, besides offering aid, China is in talks with Kabul to establish a military base in its hostile northern terrain. Besides, it outsmarted India and constituted Quadrilateral Coordination Group of Afghanistan for restoring peace. China recently sold cheap submarines and promised $24 billion in investment to Bangladesh. Buoyed by China’s support, President Yameen who has imposed emergency in Maldives is now refusing to adopt a moderate approach. China hell-bent on wooing Bhutan has scheduled border talks with Bhutan and is making herculean efforts to strike a deal before elections this year. With Bangladesh, Afghanistan and Maldives set to go for polls this year, India has to close monitor the China’s moves.

Beijing’s aggressive land reclamation in the South China Sea has irrevocably altered the dynamics of the region. Intimidated by China’s economic clout, South East Asian countries are increasingly looking forward for India’s dynamic leadership. China is steadily expanding its presence among the Eastern European countries under the 16+1 arrangement and controls one-tenth of European container terminal capacity. France and Germany wary of China’s growing influence in Balkans have raised alarm. With US retrenching from the global arena, China is aggressively positioning itself as an alternative. Ironically, while Europe is worried about China’s aggressive rise, America obsessed with Russia’s interference in Western democracies is spending time and energy in frivolous investigations, flogging a dead horse. Meanwhile, China is inundating American markets and steadily extending its trade surplus over years. Interestingly, while strategists expressed concern over the new developments, White House Press secretary responded, “I believe that’s a decision for China to make about what’s best for their country.” In October following Xi’s elevation after the 19^th Congress, President Trump congratulated him on “extraordinary elevation” and later in an interview, he called Xi, “the King of China”. Niceties apart, America seems to have grossly underestimated formidable rise of China and its arrival on global platform. Now, China’s economic model with authoritarian politics is now emerging as an alternative to capitalist democracy. In its ambitious bid for a global role, China has ruthlessly subscribed to a disguised form of imperialism. The proposed amendment in constitution will augur well for China’s expansionist agenda. World must now gear up for a China’s audacious power projection with Xi at the helm of affairs.

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