Trump’s Jerusalem move has opened the region for new players

President Trump’s announcement recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel on December 6^th has stoked global dissension. Interestingly, December 6^th which is remembered in India for dubious reasons will forever be reckoned by Israelis with immense pride. Reiterating his commitment towards fulfilling election promise, Trump said, “Israel is a sovereign nation with the right like every other sovereign nation to determine its own capital. Acknowledging this as a fact is necessary precondition for achieving peace”. He added, “Jerusalem is Israel’s capital. This is nothing more, or less, than a recognition of reality. It is also the right thing to do. It is something that has to be done”. Simultaneously, Trump unequivocally clarified that US is committed towards facilitating the peace agreement between Israel and Palestine and that US is not taking any sides. He emphasized that US is not defining the boundaries of sovereignty of Israel over Jerusalem and that parties involved are free to resolve the contested borders. He urged, “we call for calm, for moderation, and for the voices of toleration to prevail over purveyors of hate”. Though Trump asserted that US will favor the two-state theory and announced that Vice-President Mike Pence will travel to Palestine to reaffirm US’s commitment, his announcement regarding Jerusalem drew sharpest condemnations from Muslim Council members and European leaders as well. Hours before Trump’s announcement, UK closet ally UK, warned that he would “effectively declare war” by recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.

But for contentious debate regarding Jerusalem, it has been functioning capital of Israel with working Parliament (Knesset) capital, Supreme Court and official residences of Prime Minister and President. Though US Congress adopted Jerusalem Embassy Act, in 1995, requesting the federal government to shift embassy to Jerusalem and to recognize the city, for the past two decades, US presidents exercised waiver. Fearing backlash and wrath of the Arab countries, US presidents delayed the move.

Jerusalem is a sacred place for three major faiths-Jews, Muslims, Christians. Historical records in Hebrew Bible indicate that Jerusalem was capital of King David of Israel where his son Solomon built his temple. Babylonians invaded Jerusalem, destroyed the temple and sent Jews into exile. Later, Persian King Cyrus invited Jews back and King Herod redeveloped the second temple. For the next few centuries, the place was ruled by different groups. Jesus was also crucified in Jerusalem around 30 CE following which Christians began to make pilgrimages to the place. In 70 CE Romans destroyed the temple. For over a century Christian Kings retained control over Jerusalem. Arabs also revere the place as it is believed that Mohammed last flew to Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem from Mecca overnight before ascending heavens on a mythical creature in 632 CE. It is considered as the third most sacred place for Muslims. Till the World War I, Jerusalem was under Ottomon Empire. After World war I, British ruled over Jerusalem till Israel became independent in 1948. After the establishment of Israel, it controlled western part of Jerusalem. Jordan during Israel’s war of independence occupied the Eastern part of Jerusalem. Israel won, lost territories from Jordan in the six-day 1967 war.

Eastern Jerusalem has the Temple Mount that has three structures- Al Aqsa Mosque, the dome of rock, the dome of chain and the four minarets. Currently, Temple Mount is controlled by Muslim Waqf board, while Israel overlooks its security. Of the eleven entry gates for Temple Mount, ten are reserved for Muslims and one for non-Muslims. As per Bible, Jewish Temples stood on the Temple Mount. Indeed, the first temple built by Solomon and the restructured second Jewish temple were constructed in the same place. The Jews firmly believe that a third temple will also be built in the same place. The New Testament of Bible indicates that Jesus visited the walls of Herod. During the period when Christian rulers held the reigns of Jerusalem, a Church of the Holy Sephulcare was constructed at the Dome of the rock. Church was razed by the Muslim invaders who built the silver-domed al-Aqsa mosque over it. Quran has prophesized that Jerusalem will be one of the cities where end of world will begin. The wall, remnant of the second Jewish temple, located at the western side of the Temple Mount, also referred as the “The Western Wall or the Wailing Wall” is considered as holiest place for Jews. Ever since Israeli independence, Jerusalem has become the seat of intense conflict between Israelis and Palestinians. In 1980, Israel declared Jerusalem as its capital, but international community hasn’t recognized the move. Indeed, Second Palestinian Intifada in 2000 occurred in response to Likud party chief Ariel Sharon’s visit to Temple Mount. In May 2017, Hamas proposed formation of Palestine state with Jerusalem as capital. Israel rejected the idea as Hamas refused to recognize Israel state. More recently in July, Arabs killed two Israeli policemen guarding the temple Mount leading to cancellation of prayers at the mosque. Due to the deep historical, religious, and cultural significance of Temple Mount, Jerusalem had been the major aspect of contention in reaching peace agreement.  Trump’s endorsement of Israeli desideratum has thus triggered anger among the Arabs.

Trump’s latest decision is in sharp contrast to anti-Israeli stance adopted by President Obama wherein US abstained from voting on a resolution initially introduced by Egypt but later tabulated by New Zealand, Senegal, Malaysia and Venezuela on the legality of Israeli settlements in West Bank and East Jerusalem. US didn’t veto the resolution and Israel lost it 14-0. Consequently, settlements in West Bank and East Jerusalem lost legal validity with UNSC ruling them as occupied territories. The resolution indirectly implied that Jerusalem is no longer the holiest place for Jews. Obama’s enmity with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu changed the status quo of Jerusalem and complicated the peace process. Trump’s recognition has strengthened Israeli claims over Jerusalem.

Prior to 1967, Jews were forbidden from worshipping at the Western wall and access to hospitals and synagogues on the Mt. Scopus were denied. In the battle between Israel and the Arab coalition that ensued a day of Israeli independence, Jordan occupied entire West Bank, the region assigned for Arab State and Jerusalem (Egypt occupied Gaza Strip). Between 1948 and 1967, UN neither intervened nor condemned Jordanian occupation, who destroyed all Jewish monuments of worship. Israel later won back all these occupied territories in 1967 war. But now UN and US refused to recognize Israel’s legitimate claims over Jerusalem. The latest move boosted Israeli position with Trump clearly indicating that US will not take any stand regarding the final resolution of boundaries of Jerusalem. Arab countries criticized US for siding with Israel by acknowledging Jerusalem as capital of Israel. While Arab countries criticized Trump for his biased stand, it is an open secret that US has been a strong ally of Israel. Irked by US’s position, Palestine has cancelled talks with Mike Pence, permanently bulldozing America’s longstanding role as mediator of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

While recognition of Jerusalem is long overdue, Trump’s announcement consolidated his support among domestic evangelists who believed that establishment of modern Jewish state, construction of third Jewish temple at Jerusalem will lead to Jesus’s return. Evangelists were ecstatic about Trump’s move and this domestic support keep in good stead amidst institutional investigations against him.

Ever since, Trump’s announcement, Muslim majority countries issued series of threats and staged protests after the Friday prayers. Calling it a “day of Rage” Palestinians intensified protests and clashed with Israeli security forces. Marked display of anger was witnessed from Malaysia to Somalia. In an emergency UNSC meeting, members condemned Trump’s move. Arab League summoned an emergency meeting of 22 Arab states wherein leaders denounced the decision of US to recognize Jerusalem as Israeli capital calling it “dangerous and unacceptable and a flagrant attack on a political solution to Israeli-Palestinian conflict”. But interestingly, Egypt and Turkey spear-headed attacks against US as opposed to Saudi Arabia and Bahrain which are mired by domestic tensions. Experts now argue, other than domestic protests and incidents of violence, Trump’s decision may not evoke strong diplomatic response from the Arab countries cutting of trade links as Muslim leaders are largely disunited. Middle East has been a breeding ground of commotion, instability, and fundamentalism and Jerusalem will obviously elicit a violent response which in any case will not escalate into catastrophic levels. Intuitively, Trump by pulling the trigger of gun by provided new impetus to Israel and Palestine to engage in peace process. But with US having lost the role of a mediator, it has created a power vacuum. Russia’s enthusiastic forays into the Middle East and President Putin’s sudden visit to Egypt, Turkey and Syria coinciding with the new turmoil may culminate in Moscow seeking a role in mediation. In a Press conference Putin said, “Both Russia and Turkey believe that the decision doesn’t help regulating the situation in the Middle East but instead destabilizes already complicated atmosphere”. President Erdogan, who considers himself as savior of Palestinian cause has called for meeting of members of Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) on December 13^th to mobilize world. Turkey, a member of NATO has fallen apart with US over the issue of America supplying weapons to Kurds has revived ties with Russia is taking a lead role Syrian talks mediated by Russia. Turkey even warned Israel of severing ties. Russia-Turkey-Iran alliance of convenience has reduced the relevance of US in the middle east. Iran and Turkey spewing venom against Israel might escalate tensions. Iran warned that it will not tolerate aggression against holy Islamic sites. Both Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei and President Rouhani strongly denounced Trump’s decision. Rouhani said, “Today, the enemies have launched a new conspiracy against the Muslims and have targeted the great goal of liberation of Holy Quds (Jerusalem). The Holy Quds belongs to Muslims and Palestinians, and it is not a place in which anyone can stand against the thoughts and feelings of people. This is a new adventure of the global arrogance in the region”. Iran have shunned the reference to Palestine as Arab state and called it a Muslim country in an attempt to rally for the support of Muslim nations to raise against America.

Interestingly, even China is not lagging in the race to assert power in the Middle East.  China’s mouth piece Global Times carried out a scathing piece titled “Trump kicks hornet’s nest again”. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang expressed concern and said that Trump’s decision would “potentially flare-up regional tensions”. He added “China firmly supports and advances the Middle East peace process. We support the just cause of the Palestinian people to restore their legitimate national rights and stand behind Palestine in building an independent full sovereignty state along the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital. We call on all parties to remain committed to resolving disputes through negotiations and promoting regional peace and stability in accordance with the relevant UN resolutions”. To this end, China has even presented a four-point program at UN towards resolving the Israel-Palestine conflict. China offered financial assistance including “supporting Chinese companies to invest in Palestine and build industrial parks and solar powers” to Palestine during President Mahmoud Abbas visit to Beijing. With China planning to expand the OBOR to Middle East, it is planning to closely work with Israel and Palestine. It is proposing to launch the China-Palestine-Israel tripartite dialogue.

Aside, US, a staunch ally of Israel, President of Czech Republic, Zemen favored movement of embassies from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and reinforced that anti-Israeli stance of EU is cowardice. Clarifying India’s position on Jerusalem MEA spokesperson said, “India’s position on Palestine is independent and consistent. It is shaped by our views and interests and not determined by any third country”. India exercised caution and reaffirmed its commitment towards Palestine.

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