Marked Upswing in Indo-Japanese Ties

Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s fourth visit to India during the NDA regime for the 12^th bilateral annual summit meet infused new optimism, vigor, and energy to Indo-Japanese ties. The visit which hit the right notes for the impressive dynamics and profuse display of synergy had several firsts to its name. For the first time, bilateral talks were held at Gandhinagar and consequently, visiting state head gave National capital amiss. Reinforcing cooperative federalism, Modi government held bilateral talks at state capital setting a new precedent. Indeed, Prime Minister Modi left no stone unturned to reach out to his counterpart. Defying official protocol, Modi received Abe at the airport, extended a warm welcome. The two leaders, along with Japan’s first lady, traveled from airport to Sabarmati Ashram in an open jeep.  The 8km long roadshow, first ever by a foreign leader in India, drew unprecedented media attention over depth of the fledging Indo-Japanese relations to a mere specter. The cacophonous media rhetoric mindlessly underplayed key take-aways of bilateral summit portraying it as a mere ground-breaking ceremony of the Highspeed Bullet Train.

Resurgence of Indo-Japanese ties is an outcome of inclement geopolitical churnings and dawn of new realization on India’s side on the need for cultivating and strengthening friendly ties with like-minded countries. Further the threatening and provocative rise of China and doubts over America’s position as global security provider prompted India and Japan to move closer. Moreover, incessant bickering between President Trump and the establishment is making Asian countries, especially, Japan more skeptical. America’s incongruent Korean policy and the relentless missile testing of North Korea is unsettling Japan. In addition, Japan is facing bearing brunt of China’s aggressive posturing in East China Sea. While India continues to face security threats along Western and Northern front from Pakistan and China respectively. It must be recalled that Japan was the only country which extended unequivocal support to India on Doklam issue. Tokyo’s gesture infused new trust, transforming the dynamics of bilateral ties. Above all, symbolizing its single-minded resolve in strengthening partnership Japan signed civil nuclear treaty with India. The agreement was unthinkable, since Japan was hit by a nuclear weapon and suffered Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear fallout. Also, India is not a signatory of NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty) making it doubly tough to persuade the Japanese bureaucracy to work towards conclusion of nuclear treaty. Convinced of India’s track record and assurances, Japan has decided to ratchet up nuclear cooperation with India. America’s retrenchment from the geopolitical scenario and China’s effusive belligerence is altering the stability in the Asia forcing nations to shed their strategic inertia.

Indo-Japan bilateral ties received a major boost with both countries agreeing to upgrade the global and strategic partnerships with a provision for annual visits in 2006. Ever since, successive Indian and Japanese leaderships continued to strengthen bilateral ties. Prime Minister Modi on his first bilateral visit to Japan, engaged proactively giving renewed thrust on strategic dimensions. To give a major fillip to bilateral relations, both countries agreed to expand areas of cooperation. Mumbai to Ahmedabad High Speed Rail (MAHSR) bullet train proposal thus was a great move in that direction since Japan was a pioneer in high speed rail technology. Its Shinkansen bullet train has acclaimed international reputation for its speed, punctuality, and safety, becoming symbol of advanced rail technology. The 500-kilometer Japanese funded rail project will manufacture parts under “Make in India” project using Shinkansen technology. The 1,10,000-crore project will be supported by 88,000-Crore loan funded by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) at a nominal interest rate of 0.1%. The project payable in 50 years has a moratorium of 15 years. The MAHSR project will provide ample employment opportunities, transfer advanced technology, train personnel in operation, maintenance and running of bullet train. Since sophisticated circuitry and other electronic machinery will be manufactured in India, all allied industrial units associated with the project will stand to benefit. This huge developmental project can help in creating a new ecosystem for Railways.

Shinzo Abe on the second day of his visit, laid foundation stone for India’s first bullet train project, MAHSR whose completion is advanced to 2022, which marks 75^th anniversary of India’s independence. Japan’s MAHSR investment, is by far the largest in independent India. Japan is now third largest investor India. Cumulative Japanese investment from 2000-2017 is $25.67 billion which is 8% of total FDI received during that period. Drawing parallels to Japan’s investment in small car manufacturing technology back in 1984, highspeed rail is expected to revolutionize functioning of Indian Railways, the formidable lifeline of India. While bullet train project is one of the cornerstones of evolving Indo-Japanese strategic cooperation, critics were hell bent on portraying it as the be-all and end-all of Abe’s crucial visit.

Arguably, while majority failed to appreciate the heights of congruence reached by both countries, the Joint Statement aptly summarized and laid future guidelines for a robust Indo-Japanese partnership. Abe believed, “a strong India is in best interest of Japan, and a strong Japan is in best interest of India” and envisioned a great role for India in reshaping changing geopolitical equilibrium of Asia. He indeed popularized the term, Indo-Pacific to reinforce prominence of India.  The 12^th bilateral annual summit aptly pondered on the same and reaffirmed goal of working towards free, open and prosperous Indo-Pacific.

Indian policies find great convergence with Japanese policies. India’s Act East Policy syncs with the Japan’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy that envisages need for strengthening maritime security and defence cooperation. Both countries have resolved to strengthen trilateral cooperation frameworks with the United States, Australia, and other countries. This commitment strikes cord with the Security Diamond Policy articulated by Abe in 2012, wherein he conceptualized a greater cooperation between democratic nations Australia, India, Japan and Hawaiian state of US to jointly safeguard Indo-Pacific maritime front. The renewed resolve of India and Japan in calling democratic nations for join hands miffed China. Further, both countries stressed the need for strengthening rule-based order. To deepen special strategic security partnership, both leaders agreed on institutionalized engagement through annual Defence Ministerial Dialogue, National Security Advisors dialogue,2+2 dialogue, Defence policy dialogue and Service to service staff talks. Rattled by the growing congruence between the countries, China responded that “We advocate that regional countries should stand for dialogue without confrontation and work for a partnership instead of alliance”. China’s apprehensions over growing closeness between India and Japan is along expected lines.  Incidentally Japan is in alliance with the US while India fervently abides by the doctrine of non-alignment. Though US may not be averse to an alliance between India and Japan, any alliance between these two-countries can’t potentially overtake or contain China. Hence fictitious plausibility of an alliance will be meaningless. Instead both countries can actively collaborate and work together in areas of convergence and offer succor to the region destabilized by the confrontational approach of China.

Taking an indirect dig at OBOR, for lacking transparency and structured rule-frame work, India and Japan stressed the need for developing an infrastructure connectivity which is open, transparent, rooted through responsible debt financing practices, respects sovereignty and ensures territorial integrity, rule of law and environment. India and Japan last year, envisioned a $40 billion India-Japan Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC), to develop industrial corridors in Africa. Tipped as alternative to China’s OBOR, observers believed that this summit meet will flag off this ambitious project. But instead, both countries, speed tracked infrastructure development projects in India’s Northeast Region (NER) as “concrete symbol of developing synergies”. Responding to this development, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said, “You must be very clear that boundary of the India-China border area has not been totally delimited and we have disputes in the eastern section of the boundary. We are now trying to seek a solution through negotiation that is acceptable to both sides”.

Both leaders strongly endorsed ASEAN unity, stressed importance of freedom of navigation and overflight. This particularly refers to one upmanship of China which frequently objects to freedom of navigation in the South China Sea (SCS) and has unilaterally declared an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the East China Sea which includes the Senkaku Islands claimed by Japan in 2013. Regarding global and regional challenges, both leaders denounced the reckless nuclear development program of North Korea and condemned its provocative actions in strongest terms. Similarly, they condemned cross-border terrorism and violent extremism and called for disruption of the terrorist networks and their financial channels.

Japan made phenomenal contribution towards infrastructure development projects in India both in terms of financial and technical assistance. India is largest beneficiary of Japan ODA (Official Developmental Assistance). Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Ahmedabad, Bangalore, Kolkata Metro, Mumbai-Trans Harbor Link Project and introduction of Intelligence Transport System along the eastern peripheral Highway of Delhi stand testimony to Indo-Japan cooperation.  India and Japan signed 11 agreements on defence and research projects.

While the joint statement has covered significant ground, and outlined prospective future course of action to deepen partnership, observers contend that two areas- bilateral trade and people to people contacts need serious attention. Bilateral trade which was hovering around $15 billion is quarter of Indo-China trade volume. Over years, number of students traveling to either countries through exchange programs have significantly decreased. Sceptics now argue that despite the bonhomie, in absence of an agreement on the sale of Japan’s U-2 ShinMaywa amphibious aircraft, talk of robust relationship between both countries is meaningless. They expressed dissatisfaction over failure in operationalizing the ratified civil nuclear treaty. Even they expressed concerns over the steadiness of Indo-Japan ties with Abe’s political fortunes subdued by corruption charges and India staring at fast approaching general elections in 2019.

Japan played a preeminent role in India’s progress and development. Other than the brief period of disruption of bilateral ties following India’s nuclear tests in 1998, both countries had close friendly ties. Baring Russia, India held maximum annual summits with Japan. Abe’s visit to India has come at a time when India and China just managed to defuse a prolonged confrontation at Doklam. But security threat from Beijing continues to loom large over India with reports indicating that armed troops of both countries are just 150ft away from the Doklam region. Tensions escalated in Japan, with North Korea blasting off yet another missile that flew over Japan during Abe’s state visit to India. Like India, Japan is facing threats from China and the nuclear armed North Korea. Threats from an ascendant China is bringing both countries closer. But invariably, the astuteness and dogged persistence of leaderships of both countries culminated in emergence one of the robust partnerships in Asia.

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